S&P 500, Bitcoin & XLK: What the Charts Are Saying Now

Summary

Frank Capillary, a seasoned market expert with nearly 20 years of experience, shares insights into how he uses StockCharts to analyze market trends and make informed trade decisions. He discusses key tools and features, such as the platform’s clear chart designs and flexibility to handle multiple indicators. Capillary examines the S&P 500, Bitcoin, and XLK technology ETF, analyzing patterns, market shifts, and breakout opportunities. He also highlights trade ideas, including stocks like Google, Tesla, Deckers, and MDU. His approach emphasizes the importance of recognizing bullish patterns and understanding market momentum for making high-probability trade setups.

Takeaways

• 😀 Frank Capillary has been using StockCharts for nearly 20 years, leveraging it to create content for both institutional clients and individual investors.
• 😀 The clarity of StockCharts' charts is one of the key reasons Frank recommends the platform, as they provide the cleanest visuals compared to other platforms.
• 😀 StockCharts allows users to display multiple charts for a single security, which is important for analyzing different perspectives and forming a comprehensive view of the market.
• 😀 Frank emphasizes the value of having customizable chart views, and demonstrates using the 'chart book view' for today's market analysis.
• 😀 Successful bullish patterns are essential for confirming an uptrend, with Frank referencing 10 consecutive successful patterns from 2023 to 2024 as a significant example.
• 😀 The market’s behavior shifts when patterns fail, as seen in December and February, signaling the need for caution and adjustments in trading strategies.
• 😀 The S&P 500 has experienced a series of bullish patterns, but caution is advised when those patterns fail, particularly in a market with steep uptrends.
• 😀 Frank discusses the potential for a bearish rising wedge in the S&P 500, but stresses that it’s important not to immediately interpret this as a total reversal of the uptrend.
• 😀 The XLK technology ETF has been a strong performer, with large-cap growth leading the market rebound, and historical examples show that large corrections can lead to even stronger comebacks.
• 😀 Bitcoin’s movements are closely tied with the S&P 500, and tracking its progress alongside the broader market is essential, especially as Bitcoin approaches its previous highs.
• 😀 Frank shares potential trade ideas, such as Google (Alphabet), Tesla, Deckers, Constellation Brands, and MDU, highlighting bullish patterns forming and the importance of analyzing chart setups for future price targets.

Q & A

How long has Frank Capillary been using StockCharts?

Frank Capillary has been using StockCharts for nearly 20 years, which includes a significant amount of time spent on Wall Street.

What does Frank Capillary consider the most important feature of StockCharts?

Frank Capillary believes the most important feature of StockCharts is the clarity of its charts, stating that they are the cleanest and most clear compared to other platforms he has used.

Why does Frank value StockCharts' ability to show multiple charts for a security?

He values this feature because it allows him to view multiple perspectives of a single security, helping to understand trends and patterns more comprehensively, which is critical for his analysis.

What is one of the key traits Frank looks for when identifying an uptrend?

One of the key traits Frank looks for in an uptrend is successful bullish patterns, where breakouts occur and upside targets are consistently achieved.

What significant event in the market did Frank notice in December 2024 regarding bullish patterns?

In December 2024, Frank observed a failure in bullish patterns for the first time after ten consecutive successful bullish patterns, which signaled a change in market behavior.

How did Frank react to the market decline after the failed bullish patterns in February?

After the failed bullish patterns in February, Frank adopted a cautious approach and stepped out of certain trades, as it indicated a shift in the market character.

What key observation did Frank make about the S&P 500's performance starting from April 2025?

Frank observed that after a period of difficulty in identifying successful bullish patterns, a new breakout in early April 2025 occurred, setting the foundation for further bullish movements in the market.

What does Frank say about Bitcoin's relationship with the S&P 500?

Frank explains that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 often move together, with Bitcoin outperforming during market rallies. He notes that when Bitcoin outperforms, it typically indicates strong bullish momentum in the market.

How does Frank analyze Bitcoin's current price movement?

Frank notes that Bitcoin is currently consolidating near its previous highs and has already met one of its upside targets of $103,000. He compares this pause to a long bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, suggesting potential further upward movement.

What trade ideas did Frank highlight towards the end of the video?

Frank highlighted several trade ideas, including Google (Alphabet), which he believes could be forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, and other stocks like Deckers and Constellation Brands that are showing potential for bullish movements.