Fareed Zakaria Looks Back at 2024

Summary

In this FP Live episode, Ravi Agal discusses global political trends with Fareed Zakaria, reflecting on significant 2024 events such as U.S. elections, the rise of populism, and the challenges to incumbents worldwide. Zakaria highlights the ongoing backlash against established politics, emphasizing the deepening populist wave. He also evaluates the Biden administration's foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, noting the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah, while Israel's military dominance grows. The conversation reveals the shifting political landscape and the resilience of democracy in times of turmoil, demonstrating the complex interplay of power dynamics across the globe.

Takeaways

• 😀 The rise of populism and backlash in societies is not a temporary phenomenon, but part of a deeper, long-term trend that will shape politics for years to come.
• 😀 Trump's election was a reflection of this global populist wave, marking the end of the traditional Republican Party and the rise of a populist MAGA Republican Party.
• 😀 2024 was an anti-incumbent year, with incumbent governments globally suffering significant penalties, with India being the only notable exception where Modi stayed in power despite challenges.
• 😀 The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, including inflation and supply chain disruptions, exacerbated public dissatisfaction with incumbent governments.
• 😀 Despite global challenges to democracy, the system is resilient, with elections serving as an outlet for citizens to address their anxieties and demand change.
• 😀 The Middle East saw significant shifts with the weakening of Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, which positively impacted U.S. interests in the region.
• 😀 The U.S.'s support for Israel's actions in Gaza cost it some soft power, but the broader geopolitical landscape saw positive developments for the U.S., including a weakening of its adversaries in the region.
• 😀 Israel's strategic success in dismantling Hezbollah's military capabilities and weakening Iranian influence in the region is seen as a major victory, reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East.
• 😀 The American-led security order in the Middle East has been strengthened, with Israel emerging as the undisputed military superpower in the region.
• 😀 Despite the success of the U.S. and Israel in weakening regional adversaries, the Middle East remains unstable, and power vacuums could lead to further challenges in the future.

Q & A

What is the key theme of Fareed Zakaria's book, *Age of Revolutions*, as discussed in the interview?

The key theme of Fareed Zakaria's book, *Age of Revolutions*, is the rise of populism and the deepening anxiety and anger in the body politic, particularly in the West. Zakaria argues that this backlash is not a fleeting moment but part of a broader, ongoing trend that will shape politics for years, if not decades.

What does Zakaria suggest about the current state of the Republican Party in the U.S.?

Zakaria suggests that the old Republican Party is no longer in existence. It has been replaced by a populist MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republican Party, signaling a significant shift in the party's identity and its political landscape.

How does Zakaria explain the anti-incumbent sentiment in global elections, particularly in 2024?

Zakaria explains that 2024 has been an anti-incumbent year, with incumbent governments suffering penalties in elections. He highlights that this reflects a global dissatisfaction, where people are looking for change in response to economic turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic's aftermath, and a broader sense that the current systems aren't working.

What is Zakaria's view on democracy's resilience amid global challenges?

Zakaria emphasizes that while democracy is under strain, it shows remarkable resilience. He argues that the ability to hold elections and change governments, even in times of great turmoil and dissatisfaction, demonstrates democracy's strength compared to non-democratic regimes, which lack such an outlet for change.

How does Zakaria differentiate the situation in democratic countries from non-democratic ones like China, Russia, and Iran?

Zakaria contrasts the situation by pointing out that in democracies, even when there is turmoil, citizens can use elections as a mechanism to express discontent and bring change. In contrast, non-democratic regimes like China, Russia, and Iran lack this mechanism, making their political systems more fragile in the long term.

What does Zakaria think of the U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly regarding Gaza?

Zakaria views U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East as mixed. While the U.S. has lost some soft power by supporting Israel in the Gaza conflict, particularly under Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership, this is seen as a moral issue. However, the broader regional balance of power has been shifting in favor of the U.S. and Israel in recent months.

What has been the impact of U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East, according to Zakaria?

Zakaria notes that U.S. and Israeli actions, especially in weakening Iran and Hezbollah, have significantly restructured the Middle East. Israel's military successes, including the destruction of Hezbollah's infrastructure and the weakening of Iran's influence, have reshaped the regional security order, bolstering the American-led system.

How has Israel's military strategy affected Hezbollah and the Assad regime?

Israel's military strategy has had a profound impact on Hezbollah and the Assad regime. Through successful strikes on Hezbollah’s communications and infrastructure, as well as Syria's air defenses and naval forces, Israel has severely weakened these actors, undermining the broader resistance to the American-led security order in the region.

What does Zakaria say about the long-term stability of the Middle East after these developments?

Zakaria acknowledges that while the weakening of key players like Iran and Hezbollah has created a more favorable security environment for Israel and the U.S., the Middle East remains volatile. He notes that weakness can sometimes produce instability, so it's uncertain whether these shifts will lead to long-term stability.

What is Zakaria's assessment of the broader impact of U.S. involvement in the Middle East?

Zakaria believes that U.S. involvement in the Middle East has been successful in preserving and even strengthening the American-led security order, especially as the power dynamics shift with the weakening of traditional adversaries. However, he stresses that this success comes with significant moral and political costs, particularly regarding the U.S.'s relationship with Israel and its actions in Gaza.