Escalation management and Biden’s strategy for Ukraine

Summary

The video script discusses the fluctuating perceptions of Russia's success in the Ukraine war and the Biden administration's strategy of escalation management. It explains that while Ukraine aims to liberate its land and inflict a painful defeat on Russia, the U.S. focuses on containing the conflict to prevent it from spreading. The script also explores the potential for a Russian regime collapse and the associated risks, suggesting that the U.S. envisions a negotiated end to the conflict to avoid a larger war or dangerous instability in Russia.

Takeaways

• 📉 The war in Ukraine has seen fluctuating fortunes for both sides, with public opinion swaying between optimism and pessimism regarding Russia's prospects.
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. has played a significant role by approving an assistance package that allowed Ukraine to use Western weapons, impacting the momentum on the battlefield.
• 🚩 There is a growing optimism among Ukraine's supporters due to recent military successes, but the narrative is cautioned against being overly simplistic.
• 🤔 The concept of 'escalation management' is central to the Biden administration's strategy, aiming to contain the conflict within Ukraine and prevent it from spreading.
• 🎯 The Ukrainian vision of victory involves liberating all their land and inflicting a painful defeat on Russia to deter future aggression.
• 🤝 The American perspective on the conflict is more nuanced, prioritizing the prevention of escalation over an outright Ukrainian victory.
• 🚫 The U.S. has been cautious in providing military aid to Ukraine, often delaying or limiting quantities to manage the pace of the conflict.
• 🔄 The possibility of a Russian state collapse is a concern for the U.S., as it could lead to unpredictable and potentially dangerous escalation.
• 💣 The Biden administration is particularly wary of scenarios where nuclear weapons could be used by a desperate Putin regime to maintain power.
• 🤝 The U.S. envisions a negotiated solution to the conflict, aiming to prevent a Russian victory while also avoiding a scenario that could lead to dangerous instability in Russia.
• 🌐 The policy is based on the assumption of Russian decline and the belief that time is on the side of the West, which may not align with Russia's own perception of the situation.

Q & A

What is the current mood regarding the war in Ukraine as described in the script?

The script describes a pendulum swing in the perception of the war in Ukraine, with the current mood leaning towards Russia being doomed. This is a shift from a few months ago when there was a sense that Russia had the momentum and Ukrainian defenses were on the verge of collapse.

What changed the momentum of the war according to the script?

The script suggests that the approval of an assistance package by the United States and the use of Western weapons by Ukraine have contributed to the change in momentum, halting the Russian advance.

What is the main concern of the Biden administration regarding the war in Ukraine?

The main concern of the Biden administration, as outlined in the script, is escalation management. They aim to isolate the war to Ukraine and prevent it from spreading to other countries.

What does Ukraine's vision of victory consist of according to the script?

Ukraine's vision of victory, as described in the script, involves liberating all their land from Russian control and causing Russia a painful defeat that would deter them from ever invading Ukraine again.

How does the American perspective on the war differ from Ukraine's?

The American perspective, particularly the Biden administration's, is more focused on escalation management and ensuring the war remains contained within Ukraine. While they also aim to help Ukraine win, their primary goal is not to achieve a swift Ukrainian victory but to manage the potential for escalation.

What are the different types of escalation the Biden administration is trying to balance?

The script outlines three types of escalation: the risk of a Russian victory leading to further aggression in Europe, the potential for crossing certain 'red lines' that could provoke a Russian response against NATO, and the risk of the Putin regime falling apart and leading to an uncontrollable situation, possibly involving the use of nuclear weapons.

Why might the Biden administration scale down military assistance to Ukraine if they start to succeed?

The script suggests that if Ukraine starts to achieve significant success, the Biden administration might scale down assistance due to concerns that too much Ukrainian success could lead to escalation, particularly if it threatens the stability of the Russian state.

What does the script suggest as the end state envisioned by the Biden administration for the war in Ukraine?

The script indicates that the Biden administration envisions a negotiated solution as the end state for the war in Ukraine, where neither side wins, and some form of compromise is reached.

What is the Biden administration's stance on Ukraine joining NATO, as mentioned in the script?

According to the script, President Biden has expressed that he is not currently supportive of the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, indicating a desire to keep the door open for negotiations with Russia.

What are some of the criticisms of the American policy towards the war in Ukraine as presented in the script?

The script criticizes the American policy for being based on weak assumptions, such as the belief in inevitable Russian decline and the expectation that Russia would seek a negotiated solution. It also suggests that the policy might be out of touch with the realities perceived by both Russia and Ukraine.

Outlines

00:00

🔄 Mood Swings in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

The script discusses the fluctuating perceptions of the Ukraine-Russia war, highlighting the shifts in momentum between the two sides. It emphasizes the recent optimism in Western support for Ukraine following the American aid package, which allowed the use of Western weapons on Russian soil. However, the narrator cautions against overconfidence, pointing out the lack of consensus in the West about what constitutes victory. The Biden administration's primary concern is 'escalation management,' aiming to prevent the war from spreading beyond Ukraine's borders. The Ukrainian vision of victory is clear: to liberate their land and ensure a painful defeat for Russia, while the American perspective is more complex, balancing support for Ukraine with the risk of escalation.

05:01

🛡️ Escalation Management and American Strategy

This paragraph delves into the concept of escalation management, which is central to the Biden administration's strategy in the Ukraine conflict. It outlines the American president's understanding that a Russian victory would embolden them to further aggression in Europe. The script also addresses the risk of red line escalation, where crossing certain boundaries might provoke a Russian response against NATO. However, it suggests that such a risk is not as significant as the potential for a violent power shift in Russia if the Putin regime collapses, which could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. The Biden administration is thus balancing the support for Ukraine with the fear of an uncontrollable escalation that could result from a Russian state collapse.

10:01

🏳️‍🌈 The Paradox of American Support and Ukrainian Victory

The script presents the paradox of American policy towards Ukraine, where the U.S. aims to prevent a Russian victory but is also wary of an outright Ukrainian win that could destabilize Russia. It discusses the Biden administration's preference for a negotiated solution that avoids a clear victory for either side. The paragraph also touches on Biden's recent comments regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership, indicating a reluctance to fully align with the Ukrainian vision of victory. The American policy is critiqued for being based on the assumption of Russia's inevitable decline and the belief that Russia would seek a negotiated settlement, which may not align with Russian perceptions.

15:02

📢 Conclusion and Call to Action

In the concluding paragraph, the narrator summarizes the American policy's challenges and the differing beliefs about the war's outcome between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. The script suggests that while the Biden administration's concerns about escalation are valid, there may be better ways to address them than by trying to control the conflict's direction. The narrator invites viewers to engage with the content by liking the video, subscribing to the channel, and signing up for the newsletter for further updates, ending with a note of appreciation for the viewers' time.

Keywords

💡Mood Swings

Mood swings refer to the rapid and unpredictable changes in the perceived success or failure of a situation. In the context of the video, it describes the fluctuating public perception of Russia's military performance in Ukraine. The script mentions the pendulum swings between Russia winning and losing, reflecting the uncertainty and changing narratives in the conflict.

💡Assistance Package

An assistance package typically denotes a set of resources or support provided to aid a particular cause or country. The script discusses the American approval of such a package for Ukraine, allowing them to use Western weapons against Russian forces, which significantly impacted the momentum of the war.

💡Escalation Management

Escalation management is the strategic approach to control and prevent a conflict from intensifying or spreading. The video emphasizes the Biden administration's focus on this concept, aiming to contain the war within Ukraine to avoid broader implications. The script explains that this involves a delicate balance to ensure neither side gains a decisive advantage that could lead to uncontrollable escalation.

💡Victory

Victory in the video script is used to describe the ultimate goal of a party in a conflict, specifically Ukraine's aspirations to reclaim all their territory and inflict a defeat severe enough on Russia to deter future invasions. The concept is explored in terms of its feasibility and the differing visions of victory between Ukraine and the United States.

💡Red Lines

Red lines represent the limits or boundaries that, if crossed, would provoke a significant response or escalation in a conflict. The script discusses the concern over crossing such lines with the delivery of new weapon systems to Ukraine and the potential for Russian retaliation against NATO.

💡NATO Membership

NATO membership refers to a country's affiliation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance. The script highlights Biden's comments regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership as part of the end game in the conflict, indicating a complex diplomatic consideration in the resolution of the war.

💡Aggression

Aggression in this context refers to the act of initiating or escalating a conflict or hostile action. The video script suggests that a Russian victory would embolden them to further aggression into other European countries, using the Ukrainian military as a resource.

💡De-escalation

De-escalation is the process of reducing the intensity or severity of a conflict. The script contrasts this with escalation management, indicating that the Biden administration is more focused on preventing the war from intensifying rather than actively pursuing a resolution that could lead to an aggressive Russian response.

💡Paradoxical Situation

A paradoxical situation describes a scenario where the desired outcomes or actions of involved parties are contradictory or conflicting. The script uses this term to illustrate the complex stance of the United States, which supports Ukraine to prevent a Russian victory but is also wary of the consequences of a decisive Ukrainian win.

💡Negotiated Solution

A negotiated solution implies resolving a conflict through diplomatic means, with both parties reaching an agreement. The video script suggests that the Biden administration envisions such a solution for the war in Ukraine, aiming to prevent a Russian win while also avoiding the risks associated with a Ukrainian victory.

💡Western Decline

Western decline refers to the perceived weakening or reduction of influence of Western countries, particularly in the context of global politics and economics. The script contrasts the belief in Western decline with the belief in Russian decline, highlighting the differing perspectives that influence the strategies and expectations of both sides in the conflict.

Highlights

Mood swings in the perception of Russia's success in the war in Ukraine.

Shift in momentum with American assistance package approval for Ukraine.

Use of Western weapons by Ukraine to strike Russian territory.

Growing optimism among Ukraine supporters due to battlefield changes.

Risk of over-optimism leading to counterproductive media narratives.

Lack of consensus in the West about what victory looks like.

Ukraine's vision of victory includes liberating land and a painful defeat for Russia.

Discussions in Ukraine about the realism of their victory goals.

American perspective on the war focuses on escalation management.

Alignment and misalignment of Ukrainian and American war goals.

U.S. caution in providing military aid to avoid rapid Ukrainian victory.

Irony of U.S. scaling down aid if Ukraine shows too much success.

Three types of escalation the Biden administration is trying to balance.

Risk of a Russian state collapse leading to nuclear weapon use.

Biden administration's paradoxical situation regarding Ukrainian victory.

U.S. policy envisions a negotiated solution to avoid Russian victory or collapse.

Biden's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership and end game.

Critique of American policy based on assumptions of Russian decline.

Ukrainian skepticism towards the Biden administration's approach.

Transcripts

One of the noticeable things you'll see if you

follow the war in Ukraine over time is the mood swings,

then Russia's winning, then they're losing, then they're winning again, then they're doomed.

Right now, the pendulum is swinging towards the Russia being doomed side of things.

A few months ago, the story was very different.

It was that Russia had momentum and that the Ukrainian defenses were about to collapse.

But then the Americans approved the assistance package

and Ukraine has been allowed to use Western weapons to strike on Russian territory.

And when you look at the front lines, then the Russian momentum is gone.

So there is a growing

optimism among those who support Ukraine.

But I want to caution against getting too carried away by that optimism.

In fact, I think that if there are too many stories in the media that say that Ukraine is winning, then that might

be counterproductive because in the Western camp,

there is not consensus about what victory is supposed to look like.

And most notably,

Ukraine is obviously fighting for victory.

But if we judge by past performance, then the Biden administration is mostly concerned about

escalation management.

And if things suddenly start going

really well for Ukraine, then they might start

withholding some of that support because they will

get concerned that a Russian defeat can lead to escalation.

So in this video, I want to explain

this concept of escalation management and what it

is that the Biden administration is trying to do.

So let's talk about it.

The Ukrainian vision of victory is pretty easy to understand.

It consists of two things.

First, they want to liberate all their land.

They want to throw the Russians out.

And then secondly, they want Russia to lose the

war so badly that they will learn the lesson.

They will never again try to invade Ukraine.

And then there are some discussions in Ukraine about whether

or not both of these goals are realistic and attainable.

What could Ukrainian victory look like if it's not possible to liberate all the territory?

Is it possible to give the Russians this painful experience of defeat if they

actually get to keep some of the territory that they have taken?

Or in that case, will the Russians just interpret that as a limited kind of victory?

So those are discussions that are going on about the shape of what a Ukrainian victory can look like.

But the essential idea is pretty simple.

It is to liberate the territory and to cause the Russians a painful defeat.

The American perspective, as it has been carried out by the Biden administration, it's a bit more complicated.

For them, the primary goal is escalation management.

The most important goal is to isolate the war so that it only happens in Ukraine.

And then after that,

they would also like to help Ukraine win the war.

But the most important thing is that the war does not spread to other countries.

And this means that in some cases, the Ukrainian and the American goals, they will be aligned and they

will sort of work in the same direction.

And then in

other cases, it will mean that there is less alignment, that the Ukrainians want one thing

and the Biden administration will want something else.

Because the Ukrainians will tend to be quite aggressive about trying to achieve victory as

fast as possible.

And the Americans will typically

prefer to err on the side of caution.

So that's why we have had all these discussions about

red lines and every time a new weapon system has been delivered to Ukraine.

It's happened with

a lot of delay and in much smaller quantities

than the Ukrainians would have wanted.

And I think

this situation is going to continue.

Right now, there is growing optimism on the side of those who support Ukraine because things are starting

to go better for Ukraine on the battlefield.

And that will obviously mean that people will start

talking about whether Ukraine can actually start

retaking the initiative and begin pushing the Russians back.

And I think that when we look at the situation on the battlefield, then that actually confirms the notion that if Ukraine

gets the right equipment, then they can actually deliver the military results.

But ironically, if things start to go really well for Ukraine,

then we might see the Biden administration starting

to scale down some of that military assistance

because there is a concern that too much Ukrainian

success can actually lead to escalation.

So this concept of escalation is very important if we want

to understand what it is that the Biden

administration is trying to achieve and what it is that they're

concerned about.

And I think we can think about it in terms of three different types of escalation

that the Biden administration is trying to balance.

First, the American president has very clearly

stated that he has an understanding that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, then they will

continue their aggression into other countries in Europe.

And that just means that a Russian

victory will mean that Russia gets emboldened.

They will get access to more resources that they can

then use for more aggression into Europe.

And the soldiers that Russia will use for that aggression

into Europe will be the Ukrainians that will be

mobilized into the Russian army.

So Biden has this

understanding that if Russia wins, then that will

lead to escalation.

And that's why Russia can never be allowed to win the war in Ukraine.

The second type of escalation that we're talking about is

that type of escalation where it's about red lines.

So that's if we cross this line or that red line, then that will cause Russia to retaliate against NATO.

I think by now there is a kind of general

understanding that this kind of escalation in connection with red lines, it's not really an issue.

Russia might do things against Europe and NATO.

They can do sabotage and hybrid attacks, but

they're going to do that if they think it will benefit them.

And if they think it will benefit them, then they're going to do that no matter what.

And if they think that doing so will hurt them,

then they're not going to do it.

And they're not going to do it even if we cross some red

line and they would like to take revenge, but

they're not going to hurt themselves in the process

of taking revenge.

So that type of escalation is not actually connected to specific decisions that

the West is making about what kind of military aid

we give to Ukraine.

So it's a question of general deterrence so that the Russians won't think that they can benefit from attacking NATO.

But it's not really, you know, there's a lot of talk

in the media about this kind of escalation that

is connected to red lines.

But in reality, it's not a big concern.

At this time, the Biden administration, they understand that there is not a whole lot that Russia can do when the

Western countries make these decisions about changing policies or crossing red lines.

The last type of escalation that the Americans

are trying to balance is, it's a little different.

It's the risk that things can start to suddenly spin out of control if the Putin regime starts

falling apart.

So there is in the American government a very strong conviction that

this is an unwinnable war for Russia and that if the war continues long enough,

then that is going to lead to a collapse of the

Russian state.

And there is also a strong concern

that a transformation of power in Russia is not going to be a peaceful process.

But it might be

a much more violent thing where Putin is desperately fighting to keep the power and

ultimately for his life.

So essentially, it's nuclear weapons that the Americans are afraid of.

As long as the war is happening just inside Ukraine and it's about winning in Ukraine,

then there are limits to what Putin will do.

I've made a video about why it's unlikely that Putin will use nuclear weapons to win the war in Ukraine.

So you can see that if you want.

But once we're talking about keeping the power

in Russia, then there are no limits to what Putin will do.

Like none at all.

He will do absolutely anything to keep the power in Russia because to him that is the most important goal in the world.

So this belief is very strong in the Biden administration that if the war continues long enough,

then it is going to lead to a collapse

in Russia and they are very concerned that it is going to lead to escalation.

So these are the

three types of escalation that the Biden administration is trying to balance in the

war in Ukraine.

As I said, number two is not really a concern.

So that is the type of escalation that they talk a lot about in the media.

But in reality, it is the other two types that are

most concerning for the Biden administration.

So on the one hand, there is this concern that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine,

then that is going to lead to a bigger war in Europe.

So Russia can under no circumstances be allowed to win and the Biden administration wants to

continue supporting Ukraine to make sure that that never happens.

So far, the American and the Ukrainian interests are aligned.

They both want the United States to support Ukraine.

But on the other hand, the Americans are

concerned about what will happen if and when the Russian

state collapses as a result of the war because they believe that will be an extremely dangerous situation.

And that is why we end up in this paradoxical situation that the Americans want to support Ukraine

because under no circumstances can Russia be allowed to win.

But at the same time, the Americans are deeply uncomfortable with the

Ukrainian vision of victory because they believe

that it might lead to dangerous instability in Russia.

So this type of balancing act has basically been Joe Biden's strategy for Ukraine until now in the war.

And I don't really see

anything that indicates that that is changing.

So I think the most likely thing that we're going

to see is that the Americans will continue that policy.

And that means that the United States is going to provide a lot of support for Ukraine,

but that they're not interested in actually giving

Ukraine all the things that they need to really

get momentum against the Russians.

So right now,

we're coming from a period where the American aid

was blocked in Congress and the Russians got the

momentum and there was a real fear that the Ukrainian defenses could collapse.

So when the Biden administration got the chance, they made some very big decisions about how to boost the

Ukrainians in the short term.

But I think it's a mistake to assume that this is a new policy where

suddenly the Americans have the same vision of victory as the Ukrainians do.

And I don't think

that this massive support is necessarily going to continue.

It's more likely that if the Ukrainians

start to get real momentum, then we might see the

Americans scale down the assistance and then we're

again going to get all these discussions about why

is the West providing too low quantities of weapons

to Ukraine?

So like why don't they get enough ATACMS missiles when we can clearly see that

they are very effective and the Ukrainians are very good at using them and so forth.

Because that is the balancing act that the Biden administration is trying to make.

And that also means that the end state that the Biden administration envisions for the war is

a negotiated solution because they definitely don't want Russia to win the war and they're

concerned that something dangerous might happen

if the Ukrainians win the war.

So the solution has to be that neither side wins the war and that there has to be some kind of compromise.

I think this was quite clear in an interview that Joe Biden

gave to Time magazine last week.

This interview, it got a lot of attention

because Biden essentially said that he's not currently

supportive of the idea that Ukraine will join NATO and that was not particularly well received

in Ukraine.

But Biden was asked what in his mind is the end game?

What does the end game look like in Ukraine?

And his answer was twofold.

So on the one hand, he reiterated this idea that Russia can

never ever be allowed to occupy Ukraine.

But then on the other hand, he said that the end game in

Ukraine does not necessarily mean that Ukraine is

a member of NATO.

So what he's trying to do here is to make it clear that Russia can't win the

war because the United States is going to continue

supporting Ukraine and they will make sure that

that doesn't happen.

So Russia can't win.

But on the other hand, he keeps the door open for negotiations with Putin because he understands

how important that question of NATO membership is if they want to make some kind of deal with

the Russians.

I want to finish off by saying that I think there are some very serious problems with

this American policy.

It's basically built on an assumption that Russia is going to collapse if the

war continues long enough.

So it's a story about inevitable Russian decline.

But it's also based

on an assumption that the Russians see the situation the same way.

That they also share

this understanding that the war is undermining

their own country and that therefore the Russians

will find an interest in finding a negotiated solution.

So it's a very weak assumption.

And quite on the contrary, I think in Russia, there is actually a very strong belief that time

is on their side and that eventually the West is going to get tired of helping Ukraine and then

they will win the war.

And there is in Russia a very strong belief in Western decline.

So in general, they believe that the West, the long-term trend is that the West is in decline.

So both in Russia and in America, there is a strong belief that time is on their side and that

the other side is in decline.

So even if the Biden administration could somehow persuade Putin to

negotiate, then there is absolutely no chance that

he's ever going to accept a deal that ensures that

Russia can never occupy Ukraine.

Because in Putin's mind, it might be the case that they can't

occupy Ukraine right now, but since the West is in decline anyways, they should be able to

occupy Ukraine in the future.

So the Ukrainians understand this and they fundamentally believe that the Americans are wrong.

They don't think that Biden's approach is going to work and that it's going to lead to lasting peace.

So the Ukrainians understand how dependent they are on the Americans to fight this war,

but they also believe that the Biden administration doesn't

really understand what it will take to end the war.

So they're going to continue pushing the boundaries in the direction that they think is the right one.

So the Biden administration's approach

has some pretty tough odds, we can say, because neither side in the war really believes that

they have a good point.

But nevertheless, I think it's important to understand where it is that the

Biden administration is coming from when they prioritize escalation management so highly.

And I also think it's important to acknowledge that there are that these concerns are real,

like these threats do exist.

These types of escalation might happen,

but I think it would probably be better to find some other ways

to address those concerns than trying to micromanage

the war in Ukraine in a direction that basically

both Russia and Ukraine believe is out of touch

with reality.

So okay, I will end it here.

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