TẤT TẦN TẬT VỀ PHÁ GIẢ (FALSE BREAKOUT)

Summary

In this video, the presenter explores the concept of 'false breakouts' in trading, discussing why prices often reverse after breaking through resistance levels. The video explains the underlying reasons behind false breakouts, including the influence of opposing market forces, such as the dominance of bears after an initial breakout. The presenter provides practical insights on identifying and avoiding false breakouts, emphasizing the importance of understanding market structure and timing. Additionally, strategies for managing risk and recognizing genuine trend shifts are shared, helping traders refine their decision-making for more successful trades.

Takeaways

• 😀 Understanding fake breakouts (phá giả) is crucial for traders to identify and avoid false signals in the market.
• 😀 A breakout occurs when price breaks through a support or resistance level, but it may reverse if the breakout is not genuine.
• 😀 A fake breakout is when the price briefly breaks a level but quickly reverses, causing traders to lose on their positions.
• 😀 The core reason for fake breakouts is when the price breaks through a resistance or support level but faces stronger opposition shortly after.
• 😀 Traders must distinguish between genuine breakouts and fake ones by considering momentum, volume, and the market's overall trend.
• 😀 When entering a trade based on a breakout, it's important to choose 'good' entry points where the likelihood of price movement is higher.
• 😀 Fake breakouts often occur near other support or resistance levels, so it's essential to identify these areas before trading.
• 😀 Another cause of fake breakouts is when a smaller timeframe's trend contradicts the larger timeframe's direction.
• 😀 To minimize the risk of fake breakouts, traders should observe how the market behaves after the breakout and whether the momentum is strong enough to sustain the move.
• 😀 If price retraces after a breakout and hits a nearby support or resistance level, it can signal the need to exit the trade or adjust the position.

Q & A

What is the concept of a 'false breakout' in trading?

A 'false breakout' occurs when the price breaks through a key resistance or support level, but instead of continuing in the expected direction, it reverses shortly after, often due to opposing market forces taking control.

Why do false breakouts happen?

False breakouts happen because the price may break through a resistance level only to encounter another strong level of opposition shortly after. Additionally, market momentum may not be strong enough to sustain the breakout.

What is meant by the term 'bull' and 'bear' in the context of this video?

In trading, 'bull' refers to the market participants who expect prices to rise, while 'bear' refers to those who expect prices to fall. The video uses these terms to describe opposing forces that influence price movements.

How can traders identify good entry points after a breakout?

Traders should look for breakouts with strong momentum. A good entry point is when the price breaks a resistance level and continues moving with significant volume and momentum. Avoid entering if the price quickly reverses or shows weak momentum.

What is the risk of entering trades too early after a breakout?

Entering a trade too early after a breakout can lead to losses because the price might not have enough momentum to move further in the desired direction. This is often referred to as a 'false breakout' where the price quickly reverses.

What are the two main reasons behind a false breakout?

The two main reasons for a false breakout are: 1) The breakout happens near another resistance or support level, and 2) the market is experiencing counter-trend momentum where a larger trend or opposing force takes over.

How can traders avoid false breakout situations?

Traders can avoid false breakout situations by waiting for confirmation, such as the price moving further after a breakout or watching for signs that the opposing market forces (e.g., bears or bulls) are not taking control.

What role does time frame analysis play in avoiding false breakouts?

Time frame analysis helps traders assess whether the breakout aligns with the larger trend. A false breakout might appear on a smaller time frame, but if it contradicts the trend on a larger time frame, it may be a signal to avoid entering.

What should traders do if they notice a breakout but see signs of reversal?

If traders notice a breakout but see signs of reversal, such as price returning to the breakout level, they should consider closing their positions or not entering at all, as the breakout may not be sustained.

How does the concept of 'bear market dominance' affect breakouts?

When the bear market is dominant, even a breakout above a resistance level may be temporary. The price might rise briefly but then fall back as the bear forces regain control, making it important to monitor the broader market trend before committing to a trade.