【財經皓角】第239集 台積電能擋住川普賣壓？｜游庭皓｜GMoney (CC字幕)

Summary

This video delves into TSMC's market performance and future outlook post-earnings report, addressing the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues. Despite a strong market position and high profit margins, TSMC faces uncertainties due to shifting trade policies, particularly between the US and China, impacting its key customers, Apple and Nvidia. The discussion covers TSMC's strategic expansion into global markets, including the US and Japan, and the potential implications of these shifts on its long-term profitability. Viewers are encouraged to consider the broader economic landscape and how TSMC's resilience may influence investment strategies.

Takeaways

• 😀 TSMC's performance is under scrutiny as market pressure persists post-earnings report.
• 😀 Despite TSMC's strong first-quarter results, market attention shifts to future risks involving geopolitical tensions and customer challenges.
• 😀 TSMC's 5nm and 3nm process nodes dominate their revenue, but future growth depends heavily on customers like Nvidia and Apple.
• 😀 Nvidia's rising importance as a customer for TSMC is reflected in its increasing market share in high-performance computing (HPC).
• 😀 TSMC maintains high profitability despite challenges like US manufacturing investments and tariffs.
• 😀 TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to remain stable, with an annual growth forecast of 25%, continuing its focus on AI and advanced packaging technologies.
• 😀 The impact of the US factory construction on TSMC's gross margin has been minimized, with labor costs not being the primary driver of expenses.
• 😀 TSMC's global production expansion is ongoing, with significant investments in both domestic and overseas fabs, including Japan and Europe.
• 😀 Political risks, particularly regarding Apple's supply chain and potential tariffs, are key factors influencing TSMC's future orders and revenue.
• 😀 TSMC's future market valuation remains closely tied to its ability to weather political risks, economic downturns, and the performance of major clients like Apple and Nvidia.

Q & A

What impact has the U.S.-China trade war had on TSMC's operations?

The U.S.-China trade war has caused uncertainty in TSMC's operations, particularly affecting its customers and supply chain. The potential for increased tariffs on Chinese goods could disrupt TSMC's customers' revenue performance, impacting their future orders. Despite this, TSMC has continued to maintain a strong market share and high-profit margins.

What is the significance of TSMC's 5nm and 3nm process technologies in terms of revenue?

TSMC's 5nm and 3nm process technologies have become the main contributors to its revenue. These advanced technologies are critical to the company's future growth, especially given their increasing dominance over traditional semiconductor manufacturing processes. They contribute significantly to TSMC's business, with Nvidia and Apple being key customers.

How has TSMC's gross margin evolved over the years, and what factors contributed to this change?

TSMC's gross margin has fluctuated over the years, with a significant decline during the dot-com bubble in 2000, dropping to 28%. However, it has steadily increased since then, reaching nearly 60%. This growth was primarily due to TSMC expanding its market share and its technological advancements. Despite challenges like the U.S. establishing factories abroad and tariff adjustments, TSMC continues to maintain high profit margins.

What challenges are TSMC’s customers, Apple and Nvidia, currently facing?

Apple faces a supply chain shift, particularly with 85% of iPhones being assembled in China, making it vulnerable to U.S.-China tensions. If tariffs are imposed, it could lead to higher iPhone prices and reduced sales, which would negatively affect TSMC's orders for future chips. Nvidia, on the other hand, is facing uncertainty with its H20 chip restrictions due to U.S. government regulations, which could impact its market share and revenue, particularly in China.

What role does TSMC play in the global semiconductor market despite geopolitical challenges?

TSMC remains a dominant player in the global semiconductor market, maintaining a leading market share despite geopolitical challenges. While the company faces uncertainties related to its customers and the political environment, TSMC’s technological leadership and market dominance, particularly in advanced node processes, position it to continue driving industry innovation and growth.

How does TSMC's international expansion affect its operations and profitability?

TSMC’s international expansion, including setting up factories in the U.S. and Japan, has allowed the company to diversify its production and meet customer supply chain demands. This has led to a decrease in Taiwan's share of TSMC’s global advanced process market, from 71% to 58%, while the U.S. market share has increased. Despite this, TSMC’s profitability remains strong due to high-margin products and operational efficiency.

What is the significance of TSMC's capital expenditures and AI accelerator growth?

TSMC’s capital expenditures are expected to remain steady, ranging from $38 billion to $42 billion, reflecting its commitment to expanding production capacity. The company’s AI accelerator business is also expected to grow rapidly, with a projected doubling of revenue, reflecting the increasing demand for high-performance computing and AI solutions.

What is the current outlook for TSMC in 2025?

The outlook for TSMC in 2025 remains positive, with projected revenue growth of 25%. Capital expenditures are expected to remain unchanged, and TSMC plans to continue expanding its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity. The company also anticipates increased revenue from AI accelerators and a stronger presence in global markets despite the political and market uncertainties.

How does the political landscape, particularly U.S. tariffs and trade policies, affect TSMC's business?

U.S. tariffs and trade policies significantly influence TSMC’s business, especially with regard to its customers like Apple and Nvidia. If tariffs on Chinese products increase, it could disrupt supply chains, cause price hikes, and reduce demand for products. TSMC’s ability to navigate these challenges depends on political decisions, such as tariff exemptions or trade policy adjustments.

What are the potential risks to TSMC's future revenue from the iPhone and Nvidia's H20 chip?

The risks to TSMC’s future revenue stem from potential declines in iPhone sales due to price increases caused by tariffs, which could reduce demand for TSMC’s chips used in iPhones. Similarly, Nvidia faces challenges with the H20 chip, as U.S. restrictions on its sale could lead to a loss of market share in China, impacting TSMC’s orders for Nvidia’s semiconductor products.