¿Cómo estará el invierno?: Proyección climatológica para el primer semestre

Summary

In this insightful interview, climatologist Raúl Cordero discusses the shifting climate phenomena affecting Chile, focusing on the retreat of La Niña, the ongoing Coastal Niño, and the forecast for winter 2025. Cordero explains the impact of these phenomena on precipitation patterns, particularly in central and southern Chile, and how weather events like the Altiplanic Winter and mudslides are being influenced. He emphasizes the importance of meteorological tools, such as radar, in predicting severe storms and highlights the need for continued adaptation in the face of climate change. Overall, Cordero's predictions suggest a more typical, slightly wetter winter ahead.

Takeaways

• 😀 The 2025 winter forecast is a topic of discussion, with questions about precipitation and temperatures.
• 😀 The La Niña phenomenon is in retreat, and it is expected to be officially declared over soon by NOAA.
• 😀 Despite La Niña being weak, it had noticeable effects, including drier conditions in Chile's central zone during the early months of the year.
• 😀 As La Niña retreats, precipitation levels in central and southern Chile are starting to recover, with a significant reduction in the deficit of rainfall in recent weeks.
• 😀 Argentina has been experiencing severe flooding, particularly in Bahia Blanca, which could be influenced by La Niña's retreat and the developing Niño Costero phenomenon.
• 😀 The Altiplanic winter (also known as the Bolivian winter) is weakening, with a reduced risk of floods in the northern regions of Chile.
• 😀 The Niño Costero phenomenon, caused by unusually warm waters in the Pacific off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, is in full development and affects Chile's weather.
• 😀 The Niño Costero is the opposite of La Niña, bringing increased precipitation instead of drought, with consequences already being felt in Chile and Argentina.
• 😀 The 2023-2024 summer was very hot, closely approaching record-breaking levels in Chile, with the Niño Costero contributing to the warmth.
• 😀 The weather for the upcoming winter is expected to be more neutral, with precipitation likely to be closer to normal after several years of drought and very dry conditions in the central zone of Chile.
• 😀 Meteorologists are hopeful that the country’s weather systems will be more balanced, and the role of meteorological tools like radar will help improve real-time tracking of severe weather events.

Q & A

What is the current status of the La Niña phenomenon in Chile?

La Niña is currently in retreat. The phenomenon typically peaks around Christmas, and since we are now more than two months away from last year's peak, La Niña is weakening. It is expected that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will officially declare its end in the coming days.

How has the La Niña phenomenon affected precipitation levels in Chile?

La Niña has led to drier conditions in the central region of Chile, particularly in the early weeks of 2025. However, as La Niña weakens, precipitation has started to recover in the central and southern regions, significantly reducing the precipitation deficit.

What impact has La Niña had on Argentina?

In Argentina, La Niña's influence has been linked to dry conditions, particularly in the central and southern regions. However, as La Niña weakens, Argentina has experienced extreme flooding, particularly in Bahía Blanca, which may be a consequence of the shifting climate patterns.

What is the Altiplanic Winter (or Bolivian Winter) and how is it related to La Niña?

The Altiplanic Winter, also known as the Bolivian Winter, is characterized by intense rainfall in northern Chile, particularly in the Andean region. This phenomenon is linked to La Niña, as it is more active when La Niña is present. However, as La Niña weakens, the Altiplanic Winter is also expected to decrease.

How does the Coastal Niño (El Niño Costero) differ from the typical El Niño phenomenon?

The Coastal Niño refers to the anomalous warming of sea temperatures off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Unlike the broader El Niño phenomenon, which affects the central Pacific, the Coastal Niño is localized to the eastern Pacific and has distinct effects on regional weather patterns, including increased precipitation in Chile and Argentina.

How has the Coastal Niño influenced precipitation patterns in Chile and Argentina?

The Coastal Niño has contributed to increased precipitation in Chile, especially in the central and southern regions. It has also been linked to extreme flooding in Argentina, particularly in Bahía Blanca, due to the rapid warming of sea temperatures off the coast of Peru and Ecuador.

What can be expected for Chile's weather in the upcoming winter?

With La Niña weakening and the Coastal Niño in development, it is expected that Chile will experience a more typical winter with moderate to normal precipitation levels. The chances of an unusually dry autumn or winter have significantly decreased.

What is the likelihood of extreme weather events in the coming months, given the current climate patterns?

Extreme weather events, such as intense frontal systems and heavy precipitation, are still a risk, especially in light of ongoing climate change. The La Niña's retreat and the emergence of the Coastal Niño may contribute to more unpredictable weather patterns, making preventive measures crucial.

How can the use of radar technology improve weather forecasting and disaster prevention in Chile?

Radar technology plays a crucial role in tracking storm development, especially those with potential to cause damage, such as hailstorms or tornadoes. By providing real-time data, radar systems can enhance forecasts and allow for timely alerts, helping prevent disastrous outcomes from severe weather events.

How is the Chilean Meteorological Agency (Dirección Meteorológica de Chile) supporting weather prediction and prevention?

The Dirección Meteorológica de Chile (DMC) has been monitoring climate variables for over 100 years, providing essential data on temperature and other meteorological factors. The agency plays a key role in issuing warnings, alerts, and alarms for extreme weather events, which is crucial in the face of the increasing frequency of such events due to climate change.