Entrevista: Immanuel Wallerstein (Programa Milênio) 2 de 3

Summary

The transcript explores complex systems theory and its implications for societal change, focusing on how current systems might evolve. It highlights the unpredictable bifurcation of social systems into either hierarchical, exploitative models or more egalitarian ones. The metaphor of the 'tiger at bay' is used to describe the U.S.'s desperate and dangerous position in global politics, potentially leading to irrational actions like military strikes. The conversation also touches on the decline of American hegemony and the rise of anti-systemic movements, particularly the World Social Forum, which represents a networked, horizontal approach to political activism amidst global uncertainty.

Takeaways

• 😀 Systems are never permanent and always move away from equilibrium, leading to potential bifurcation into two possible outcomes.
• 😀 The transition period we are currently experiencing is chaotic, and it is impossible to predict which of the two possible outcomes will stabilize.
• 😀 The future system could either be more hierarchical, exploitative, and polarizing, or it could be more democratic and egalitarian, but it's unclear which path we will take.
• 😀 Every individual action can influence which direction the system moves towards, so collective efforts can have a significant impact on the outcome.
• 😀 The metaphor of a 'tiger at bay' reflects how the U.S. may act aggressively and irrationally when feeling cornered and desperate in its global position.
• 😀 Despite the desire for peace, some factions within the U.S. military and government might push for irrational actions, such as further military aggression, due to desperation.
• 😀 The U.S. may act irrationally in its foreign policy, especially in situations like attacking Iran, even if it would be detrimental to the U.S. and the world.
• 😀 Javan Ar believes that we are not just witnessing the end of American hegemony, but also the end of the hegemonic era in the modern world system.
• 😀 The World Social Forum (WSF) remains an important space for anti-systemic movements, despite experiencing identity crises and tensions about its direction.
• 😀 There is potential for reconciliation within the World Social Forum by fostering networks and non-hierarchical structures, such as those already growing within feminist, labor, and rural worker movements.

Q & A

What is the main theme discussed regarding the end of the current system?

The main theme centers around the collapse of the current capitalist system and the uncertainty about what will replace it. The conversation draws on complexity science, suggesting that the system is in a state of bifurcation, meaning there are two potential paths for the future—one might be more hierarchical and exploitative, while the other could be more egalitarian and democratic.

What does the concept of bifurcation mean in the context of the transcript?

Bifurcation refers to the idea that when a system becomes unstable, it moves into a phase where two possible outcomes can occur. In this case, the societal system may either evolve into a more hierarchical and exploitative structure, or it could move toward a more democratic and egalitarian system. This outcome is unpredictable, and people can influence which direction the system takes.

Why is it said that the transition period is chaotic?

The transition period is chaotic because society is currently in a state of bifurcation, where it is uncertain which of the two potential outcomes will materialize. The period of instability is marked by confusion and unpredictability, as the system has yet to stabilize in either direction.

Does the speaker have an intuition about which of the two potential futures will prevail?

No, the speaker does not have an intuition about which of the two possible futures will emerge. The likelihood of either outcome is considered 50/50, and it is impossible to predict the outcome with certainty due to the chaotic nature of the system's transition.

How can individuals influence the direction of systemic change?

Individuals can influence the system by taking action. Every small action has the potential to push the system in one direction or another. The key is not necessarily to save or destroy capitalism, but to ensure that a better, more egalitarian system replaces the current one, rather than a worse, more hierarchical one.

What does the metaphor of the 'tiger at bay' refer to in the context of U.S. geopolitics?

The metaphor of the 'tiger at bay' describes the U.S. government's situation of desperation and the potential for irrational actions when cornered. It suggests that when a powerful entity like the U.S. feels trapped or unable to escape its circumstances, it may lash out aggressively, as seen in its involvement in Iraq and the potential to escalate conflict with Iran.

What are the internal struggles within the U.S. military regarding potential actions against Iran?

There is internal division within the U.S. military. The Army and Marines are reluctant to engage in further conflict due to feeling stretched and facing internal crises. However, the Air Force, which can operate with less risk, is more inclined to continue military actions, such as bombing campaigns.

What is the sociologist Javan Ar's view on the end of American hegemony?

Javan Ar believes that not only is American hegemony coming to an end, but we are also witnessing the end of the hegemonic era itself. The speaker agrees with this view, suggesting that the collapse of the current world system may lead to the rise of a new hegemonic power, but only if the capitalist world system persists long enough.

What is the current status of the World Social Forum according to the speaker?

The World Social Forum (WSF) is still considered a key platform for anti-systemic movements, but it is facing an identity crisis. The initial enthusiasm has waned, and there are questions about its effectiveness. However, the speaker does not write it off and points to the emergence of network structures within the WSF as potential solutions to its internal tensions.

What is the future of the World Social Forum and its potential impact on leftist movements?

The speaker suggests that while the WSF is currently struggling with its identity, it remains the most viable platform for global social movements. The speaker believes that the WSF can reconcile its tensions through its networked structure, which connects various groups like feminists, rural workers, and labor organizations. This could help foster a more decentralized, non-hierarchical leftist movement.