Former US negotiator: ‘Netanyahu is the worst possible leader, at the worst possible time’ | DW News

Summary

イスラエルとハマスの間で起こるガザでの紛争に関するビデオスクリプトを要約します。アメリカ大統領ジョー・バイデンは恒久的な停戦とハマスに拘束された人質の返還を提案しました。テロリスト集団であるハマスはこの提案に肯定的反応を示しましたが、イスラエルは軍事目標達成を賭けて戦争を継続すると述べています。この提案が実現されるかどうかは、イスラエル政府とハマスの意思決定者による緊張と協議次第です。また、この紛争はガザの市民に多大な被害をもたらしており、人道的な理由から停戦が求められています。

Takeaways

• 🕊️ イスラエルはガザでの戦争を全ての目標達成まで続ける予定としており、平和への期待を薄らせる。
• 🇺🇸 アメリカ大統領ジョー・バイデンは恒久的な停戦とハマスによる人質の返還を求める提案を提示。
• 📢 テルアビブでは政府による停戦の受け入れを求める群衆が集まり、人質家族は彼らの愛する人を解放するためにもっと行動を求める。
• 🤝 ハマスは停戦提案に肯定的な対応を示し、バイデンは戦争を終わらせることを逃すのは誤りだと述べる。
• 💡 アラン・デイビッド・ミラーはイスラエルとパレスチナの紛争に関する専門家であり、多くのアメリカ国務長官の顧問を務めていた。
• 🏛️ イスラエル政府は提案を内閣全体に持ち上げるかどうかが問題で、ハマスは迅速な包括的な返答に興味を持たない。
• 🔍 ハマスはイスラエルからの圧力が高まるにつれて時間と人質を取引に使い、彼らの指導力とハマスの継続を図る。
• 🚫 イスラエルの戦時内閣は提案に賛同していないかもしれないと示唆されており、ネタニヤフ首相は自らの権力維持を主目的としている。
• 🏫 スルタン・バラカトは公共政策の教授で、紛争管理の専門家でドゥハイ研究所の紛争と人道研究センターの創設者。
• 🔑 バイデンの提案は妥協点を提供しており、ハマスが10日前にも受け入れたことには大きな相違がないと評価されている。
• 🏡 ハマスは停戦、イスラエルからの撤退、再建のコミットメント、パレスチナ人拘禁者の交換を主張している。
• 🚨 ハマスはイスラエルがバイデンの提案をどの程度実行するのか疑問に思っているが、彼らは非常に限られた交渉材料を持っている。
• 🌐 イスラエルは国際的支持を失い、国際評判も失っていると指摘されており、ICCはネタニヤフとガントに対して逮捕状を要求している。
• 📉 オリバー・マクターンは紛争調停者として、バイデンの提案が新しいものではないが、計画を提示することは良いと述べている。
• 🔄 アメリカはイスラエル内閣に対して影響力を持つ唯一の国であり、彼らが戦争を終えたいと真剣に考えているなら、彼らに交渉を進める必要がある。
• 🚫 ネタニヤフは交渉にハマスの軍事的排除が必要と述べており、これはバイデンの提案にはなかった。
• 🤔 オリバーは停戦が達成される可能性について懐疑的であり、人道的な理由から両側が停戦に同意するかもしれないと期待している。

Q & A

イスラエルがガザでの戦争を継続する目的は何ですか？

イスラエルは、ガザでの戦争を継続してすべての目標を達成するまで戦いを続ける予定です。

ジョー・バイデン大統領はどのような停戦提案を提示しましたか？

ジョー・バイデン大統領は、恒久的な停戦とハマスによって拘束されている人質の返還を求める提案を提示しました。

テルアビブでの集会は何を求めていましたか？

テルアビブでの集会は、政府が停戦を受け入れるよう促すことを求めていました。

ハマスは停戦提案にどのように反応しましたか？

ハマスは停戦提案に肯定的に反応しました。

アロン・デイビッド・ミラーは提案についての見解は何ですか？

アロン・デイビッド・ミラーは、提案は良い計画であると評価していますが、問題はテキストの内容ではなく、現在の指導層がそれを受け入れるかどうかということにあります。

ハマスはなぜ迅速に包括的な対応を求めていませんか？

ハマスはイスラエルがアメリカと国際社会からの圧力を受けていると計算しており、彼らにとって重要なのはリーダーシップの維持とハマスの継続です。

スルタン・バラカト教授は提案についてどのように考えていますか？

スルタン・バラカト教授は、提案が現在の状況下では衝突を終わらせ、両側が妥協点を探す唯一の希望であると評価しています。

ハマスが提案を受け入れる可能性はどのくらいですか？

ハマスは恒久的な停戦、イスラエルからの撤退、再建へのコミットメント、およびイスラエル人質とパレスチナ人囚人の交換など、彼らが求めていた要素が提案に含まれているため、提案を受け入れる可能性があります。

オリバー・マクターンはバイデンの提案についてどう言っていますか？

オリバー・マクターンは、提案が新しいものではないと指摘し、しかし、計画を提示することは良いとしていますが、アメリカがその言葉を支持する準備があるかどうかが問題だと言っています。

ネタニヤフ首相はどのような条件で取引を結ぶと述べていますか？

ネタニヤフ首相は、取引を結ぶにはハマスの軍事的排除を含める必要があると述べていますが、これはバイデンが発表した提案には含まれていません。

オリバー・マクターンは停戦が実現する可能性についてどう考えていますか？

オリバー・マクターンは、ガザの住民が耐え難い状況を経験していることから、人道的な理由から停戦が実現する可能性があると言っています。

Outlines

00:00

🕊️ バイデン大統領の停戦提案とイスラエルの対応

イスラエルはガザでの戦争を全目的達成するまで続けると表明し、平和への期待をくじいています。アメリカのバイデン大統領は恒久的な停戦とハマスによる人質の返還を求める提案を行いました。テルアビブでは停戦を求める集会が行われ、人質家族は政府にもっと積極的な措置を取るよう訴えています。ハマスは提案に肯定的反応を示しましたが、イスラエル政府は戦争を継続するとしています。専門家アロン・デイビッド・ミラーは、提案は段階的で現実的であると評価しつつも、その実行には問題があると指摘しています。特に、イスラエル政府の意思決定者であるナイツ・シニールと彼の戦争顧問委員会がこの提案を支持するかどうかが鍵となります。

05:00

🤔 ハマスとの停戦交渉とイスラエル内閣の分裂

イスラエルの戦争顧問委員会はバイデン大統領の提案に賛成していますが、ネトニヤフ首相はハマスの軍事的排除を目指しています。ガラント国防長官もハマスの排除を求めており、提案に反対する動きが見られます。ハマスは停戦と人質交換、ガザの復興、パレスチナ人囚人の釈放という主張を持ち続けていますが、イスラエルがこれらの条件に応じるかどうか懸念しています。国際社会からの圧力とイスラエルの国際的信望の低下がネトニヤフ首相の立場を弱めており、交渉の進展には多くの障害が存在します。

10:01

🏳️ バイデンの停戦提案の詳細と交渉の難しさ

バイデン大統領はガザでの戦争を終わらせるための段階的な提案を行いました。6週間の停戦期間を設け、イスラエル軍の撤退、人質の交換、人道支援の拡大などが提案されています。2次フェーズではハマスによる残りの人質の釈放、全般的なホスilitiesの終結、ガザからの完全な撤退が求められています。しかし、ネトニヤフ首相はハマスの軍事的排除を提案から外すと述べ、交渉が複雑化しています。オリバー・マクターナンは、アメリカがイスラエル閣議に影響を与え、停戦を実現する唯一の国であり、人道的緩和のために停戦が急務であると指摘しています。

Keywords

💡平和

平和は戦争や紛争が終結し、人々が安全で調和のとれた状態にあることを指します。ビデオのテーマはイスラエルとガザでの紛争とそれに関連する平和提案に関するものであり、平和はビデオの中心となる概念です。例えば、ビデオではジョー・バイデン大統領が恒久的な停戦とホストの返還を求める提案を述べています。

💡停戦

停戦とは戦争を一時停止することを意味しますが、ビデオでは恒久的な停戦が提案されていると示されています。これはビデオの主要なテーマの一つであり、紛争を解決し、平和を築くための重要なステップです。例えば、ビデオではバイデン大統領による提案では、6週間の停戦期間が設けられています。

💡ホスト

ホストとは人質を意味しており、ビデオではイスラエルとハマスによって行われた紛争において、ホストの返還が重要な議題となっています。ホストの返還は平和交渉における重要な要素であり、ビデオではその重要性が強調されています。

💡ハマス

ハマスはパレスチナの政治的・軍事組織を指し、ビデオではイスラエルとの紛争において重要な役割を果たしています。ハマスはビデオの紛争の当事者の一つであり、平和提案への反応も議論の焦点となっています。

💡イスラエル政府

イスラエル政府はビデオの主題に関連する重要な概念で、紛争と平和提案に関する意思決定権を有しています。ビデオでは、政府が平和提案を受け入れるか否かが重要な問題となっています。

💡国際社会

国際社会は世界各国から成り立っている集団であり、ビデオではイスラエルに対する圧力を表すために用いられています。国際社会は平和を促進し、紛争解決に関与する力としてビデオ内で描写されています。

💡人道支援

人道支援とは、災害や紛争などの緊急事態下において、人々の生活を支援する活動を指します。ビデオでは、ガザ地区に対する人道支援が提案されており、これは平和回復に向けた重要な措置の一つです。

💡再建

再建とは、破壊された地域を修復し、元通りまたはそれ以上の状態に戻すことを指します。ビデオではガザ地区の再建が提案されており、これは平和と安定を回復する鍵となる要素です。

💡交渉

交渉とは、紛争を解決するために当事者間で行われる協議のプロセスです。ビデオでは、平和提案を通じて行われる交渉が重要な役割を果たしており、その過程と難しさについても議論されています。

💡テロリスト組織

テロリスト組織とは、暴力や脅迫を用いて政治的目的を達成しようとする組織を指します。ビデオではハマスがそのような組織であるとされており、その性質が平和交渉に与える影響についても触れられています。

Highlights

Israel is pursuing the war in Gaza until it achieves all its aims.

US President Joe Biden presented a proposal for a permanent ceasefire and return of hostages held by Hamas.

Crowds in Tel Aviv urged the government to accept the truce following months of rallies by hostage families.

Hamas responded positively to Biden's truce proposal.

Aaron David Miller, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, provided insights on the proposal.

The proposal's phase two has many aspects that need to be negotiated and finalized.

The current leadership's approval of the proposal is uncertain.

Hamas is under increasing pressure from the US and the international community.

Hamas's calculation involves trading time, tunnels, and hostages for leadership preservation.

The proposal is considered increasingly fraudulent due to the lack of urgency from both sides.

Sultan Barakat, a professor for Public Policy, discussed the proposal's potential as a compromise.

The proposal is not far from what Hamas had accepted previously.

There is a potential split within Israel's war cabinet regarding the proposal.

Netanyahu and Galant are determined to see the end of Hamas before considering withdrawal.

Hamas views the deal positively, focusing on key issues such as ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, and prisoner exchange.

Hamas is suspicious of Israel's commitment to implementing the proposal's three phases.

Both Hamas and Israel have limited bargaining power, with Israel losing international allies and reputation.

President Biden's proposal includes a detailed two-phase plan for ceasefire, withdrawal, and reconstruction.

Conflict negotiator Oliver McIn suggests that Biden's announcement lacks a sense of urgency and needs stronger commitment.

Netanyahu's goals of eliminating Hamas and returning hostages are seen as incompatible with the proposal.

The challenge lies in moving from the first stage of the proposal to the second stage successfully.

The potential end of military operations could lead to Netanyahu's political downfall.

A ceasefire is urgently needed for humanitarian reasons in Gaza.

Transcripts

Israel has dampened hopes for peace in

Gaza saying it will pursue the war until

it has achieved all of its aims US

President Joe Biden has presented a

proposal for a permanent ceasefire and

the return of hostages held by Hamas

crowds turned out in Tel Aviv to urge

the government to accept the truce

following months of rallies by hostage

families demanding more actions to free

their loved ones Hamas has responded

positively to the truce proposal Biden

says it would be a mistake to pass up a

chance to end the

war let's bring in Aaron David Miller

now he's an expert on the Israeli

Palestinian conflict and served as an

adviser to several us secretaries of

State welcome to the program so I'd like

to start off by asking you and thank you

for joining us I'd like to start off by

asking you what your take on the

proposal is uh as it was laid out by

President

Biden I mean it's a fine plan it's

phased It's relatively realistic

although there's so much about phase two

that needs to be negotiated nailed down

problem is not the text of a 4 and a

half page agreement problem is whether

or not the current leaderships uh

principal decision maker yakis sinir on

one hand in the government of Israel on

the other the war cabinet has already

approved this the question is whether or

not if brought to the full

cabinet um the full cabinet will approve

it Hamas has no stake in

responding comprehensively

uh quickly I mean their calculation is

um Israel is under increasing pressure

from the US the International Community

hostage families senoir is trading Time

Tunnel and hostages for what he really

wants which is the preservation of his

leadership and the uh the continuation

of Hamas in some form uh in the politic

of post October 7 Gaza so right now I

think this proposal is increasingly

fraud because you don't hand the sense

of urgency on either side that matches

the Pres President Biden's let's talk a

little bit about that sense of urgency

if we could uh this proposal was

essentially laid out by Biden but he

said it was put forward by Israel

however Israeli leaders have walked that

back and say they will continue to

pursue their military AIMS in Gaza can

you make sense of that well the war

cabinet approved it it doesn't mean that

every cabinet minister

agreed uh and netan also has Al put out

several statements which raise some

questions

although I know one thing about

negotiations parties interpreted to

their respective publics uh as they want

um so I I I think again uh if Hamas

responds with a yes or a no or imposes

additional conditions uh there may be no

need for um the proposal to be brought

to the full cabinet

if if Hamas wants to play this game

tactically they would agree to this and

let the full cabinet the full Israeli

cabinet decide which could prove highly

embarrassing to the Prime Minister uh

whose concent majority rests with 65

seats and above all his his major

objective is to main maintain himself in

power that's part of the problem I have

no brief for Hamas a vicious terrorist

organization that killed in discre ently

raped and U murdered and tortured and

took hostages let's be very

clear Benjamin netan was the worst

possible

leader at the worst possible

time in the worst possible

circumstance and therein with respect to

both hamas's and Israel's motives in

this therein lies the

problem all right I'm afraid that's all

we have time for right now that was

Aaron David Miller thank you very much

for your anoun is thank

you now let's bring in Sultan Barakat

he's a professor for Public Policy an

expert on conflict management and the

founder of the center of for conflict

and humanitarian studies at the Doha

Institute welcome to DW what's your take

on this proposal is it a good

one well obviously it's a good one in

the sense that it is probably the only

hope we have at the moment to bring an

end into the conflict and to allow the

two sides to reach a reasonable uh

agreement it will never be it will never

meet the main objective of either side

but I think it provides a compromise and

it's interesting that if you look at the

details it's not really very far from

what Hamas has

accepted uh 10 days ago or so uh the

real problem remains on the side of

Israel and I think what's happening now

it seems like there is a split within

the war cabinet within Israel with Gans

Benny Gans may be taking the lead now

and I suspect what he what has been

proposed by Biden has largely been

worked by him and the head of the

Israeli intelligence because it is very

much against what Netanyahu would like

to see and what Galant would like to see

Netanyahu and Galant are still

determined to see the end of Hamas first

uh that the total Destruction of its

military capability and its Governor's

capability and for them that is total

Victory and then they're willing to talk

about uh potential withdrawal so what we

have at the moment I think it's it's

potentially could be a good a good start

it uh it really depends on how Israel

reacts to the

proposal um Hamas says it views the deal

positively why would Hamas take any deal

as long as Israel has a stated goal of

eliminating them

militarily well I mean what they've

taken from the deal are the key issues

the deal talks about a ceasefire

permanent ceasefire it is it is calling

for Israeli withdrawal although it's

talking about withdrawal from inhabited

areas and there aren't many inhabited

areas continue me liveable lived in

areas by the Palestinians in Gaza and it

is also talking about a commitment to

reconstruction and a commitment to

release Palestinian prisoners in

exchange for the Israeli hostages so

those elements have always been the

elements that Hamas uh has called for uh

obviously they will continue to be

suspicious of Israel and its reaction

and whether it will implement the three

phases as Biden uh forese them because

from The Experience so far they don't

seem to listen to what Biden say and

Biden is not able to

really Implement any of his threats he

has introduced a number of lines for

Israel over the last seven months all

those red lines were crossed and there

was no consequence so uh I think the

only worry on the mind of Hamas today

would be whether if they were to go into

this uh phased approach whether the

Israelis will go phase one phase two the

release of the hostages and then they

will have have a change of mind of heart

and go after them for the total

Destruction uh but at the moment uh both

sides really have very little to bargain

with uh Hamas as you you could see are

pushed right against the fence and the

Israelis day by day are losing their

International allies they're losing

their International reputation now it's

not only the icj after Israel the ICC

has called for the uh warrant by for

Netanyahu and Gant so they are really in

a very difficult position thank you very

much silan Barakat Professor for Public

Policy thanks for your analysis let's

take a look at the proposal in more

detail President Biden said that in a

first phase lasting six weeks Israel and

Hamas would enter a full and complete

ceasefire Israeli forces would withdraw

from populated areas of Gaza Hamas would

release a number of hostages including

the elderly women and the wounded in

exchange Israel would release hundreds

of Palestinian detainees humanitarian

aid for Gaza would surge at this point

with at least 600 trucks being allowed

into Gaza each day in the proposal's

second phase Hamas would release all

remaining living hostages including male

Israeli soldiers all hostilities would

end and Israeli forces would fully

withdraw from Gaza once these steps have

been accomplished Hamas would hand over

the remains of all dead hostages it

still holding Rubble in gaza's cities

would then be cleared and reconstruction

of the territory backed by the us Europe

and international institutions would

begin turn to conflict negotiator Oliver

mcin who joins us Oliver uh thanks for

your time there's a lot of detail in

what Biden announced as a conflict

negotiator do you think that was a good

idea well there's nothing new in what he

is saying is what they have done is

reordered the the timetable as where

now um I think it's good to have a an

overall plan if he had just announced

okay a 60-day ceasefire in which certain

hostages will be exchanged and then

we'll see what'll happen I think it

would be less appealing and we probably

wouldn't have got the positive response

we did from Hamas but at the end of the

day I think he needs to go further um

it's no good announcing it unless he is

prepared to really stand by his words

it's time to see the war in Gaza end it

um only America I think can actually

achieve that goal um because it's only

they that can have the real influence on

the Israeli um cabinet at present and

that is they Supply the means by which

America um Israel can prosecute the war

if they are serious about ending it then

they must tell them this this is the

time you have to make a deal and then

meanwhile you have Netanyahu saying that

any deal must include quote the

elimination of Hamas militarily that

wasn't in the proposal announced by

Biden so where do things stand what does

that mean for

negotiations well I say I would think

Min it complicates it unbelievably and I

think intentionally right from the

beginning Netanyahu set two goals first

the elimination of Hamas and alongside

that the return of the hostages now

those goals for anyone familiar with

hostage negotiation and achieving a

level of agreement that could um enable

this to happen is acutely aware that

these are incompatible and I see um in a

way Netanyahu um nodding the head to

Biden on the one hand but at the same

time saying to his support and those in

his cabinet and outside his cabinet

there's a real cross party consensus

that Hamas should be eliminated for the

future security of Israel he's he's

nodding to them as well so you know it

remains to be seen how this will

progress the Big Challenge I think is

moving from not getting number one the

30-day ceasefire but it will be moving

from that first stage if it goes

successfully into the second stage and

what effectively I think the Americans

are asking Netanyahu to do in agreeing

to a permanent ceasefire is in fact to

end his political career because many

would say that once the military

operation is over then the day of

accountability begins and many predict

that will be when Netanyahu will have to

stand down as prime minister so I see

lots of obstacles in in the way and

along the way very quickly I mean you

mentioned ceasefire How likely is that

part of

it well a good positive response if the

reporting is right from a m hopefully

it's a first step the people of Gaza 2.3

million people are enduring insufferable

conditions daily which will have

long-term consequences on their whole um

way of life there it's Prof changes have

taken place we need a ceasefire now and

hopefully both sides will for no other

reason than pure humanitarian reasons

will agree to um that stage and then

hopefully political pressure will affect

the second stage Oliver mcternan thank

you so much for joining us