AK Parti ve CHP'nin kaybedeceği kritik iller! Ankara, İstanbul, Bursa, Balıkesir, Antalya...!!!

Beyaz TV

27 Jan 202416:50

Summary

TLDRThe transcript is a conversation between a journalist and a pollster about the upcoming 2024 Turkish local elections. They discuss the Ankara and Istanbul mayoral races, predicting close contests between the ruling AK Party and opposition candidates. The pollster analyzes the chances of each party's candidates, the impact of potential endorsements, and voter motivations. He believes the opposition could win Ankara but the AK Party has the advantage in Istanbul. The pollster stresses the importance of political alliances in swaying the outcome in these critical races.

Takeaways

😀 The Ankara mayoral race between Turgut Altinok and Mansur Yavas is very close, Melih Gokcek's support could help Altinok win.
😲 Ankara will be a very tight race decided by 100-1000 votes, unlike Istanbul which will have a clear winner.
👍 Murat Kurum is seen as a capable candidate for Istanbul who can solve major issues like earthquakes, fires and urban issues.
😊 Kurum's projects and promises for Istanbul are effective and have mobilized voters.
😎 Ekrem Imamoglu is seen as a victim and has gained sympathy after not being made the presidential candidate.
😍 Imamoglu has built connections across Turkey, he can mobilize voters with his slogan 'full speed ahead'.
🤔 The opposition Good Party and HDP's bases are anti-Erdogan, around 80% will vote for Imamoglu.
🧐 CHP will announce Izmir's candidate in mid-February, likely Tunç Soyer, Olgun Atilla or Canan Kaftancıoğlu.
😕 AK Party could lose Balıkesir but is likely to retain other major cities like Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya.
🙂 Turgut Altinok needs Melih Gokcek's support to win Ankara, they should come together for the election.

Q & A

What were the expectations around a Gökcek family member running as a candidate in Ankara?
-There were public expectations and polls showing that having a Gökcek family member as a candidate could significantly influence the results in Ankara, due to their popularity and the support they had previously received.
What does Altınok need to do to win in Ankara according to Gezici?
-Gezici believes Altınok needs to visibly join arms with Melih Gökçek to unite the political equations and gather enthusiastic votes across the spectrum.
How does Gezici assess Murat Kurum's potential as an Istanbul mayoral candidate?
-Gezici sees Kurum as a promising face of the AK Party who has proven himself competent during disasters and crises. He believes Kurum's projects and promises have been impactful and could attract votes.
What is the outlook for Ekrem Imamoglu's chances in Istanbul?
-Gezici predicts Imamoglu has built substantial goodwill across Turkey and maintained enthusiasm among the opposition grassroots, enabling him to possibly win Istanbul by a small but clear margin.
Why might the HDP run a candidate in Istanbul?
-Gezici speculates the HDP might claim a mandate from their base in Istanbul and justify nominating Başak Demirtaş to challenge the exclusion of Öcalan and the peace process.
Which critical cities could the CHP lose?
-Gezici names Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya, Adana and Mersin as places the CHP has a high chance of losing to rival alliances.
What is the outlook for İzmir?
-Gezici expects the CHP to nominate one of three prominent figures - Tunç Soyer, Olgun Atilla or the CHP's Istanbul secretary general.
Which city does Gezici predict the AK Party could lose?
-Balıkesir is named as the only city where Gezici sees a possibility of the AK Party-led alliance losing the mayoral election.
How does Gezici characterize the state of the Nation Alliance?
-Gezici notes disarray and demotivation in the grassroots of the Nation Alliance parties, except for enthusiasm surrounding Imamoglu in Istanbul.
What message does Gezici's analysis send about the coming elections?
-Gezici warns that critical races like Ankara could be decided by razor thin margins, displaying a polarized climate around the 2023 national elections.

Outlines

00:00

😊 Introduction and greetings

The host welcomes Murat Gezici, head of Gezici Research Company, to the morning talk show. They exchange greetings and compliments.

05:01

🤔 Analyzing the Ankara mayoral race

They discuss the Ankara mayoral race between Mansur Yavas and Turgut Altinok. Gezici analyzes the importance of Melih Gokcek's endorsement and the need to unite the nationalist vote.

10:04

👍 Assessing CHP's strategy in Istanbul

Gezici evaluates CHP's nomination of Ekrem Imamoglu for Istanbul mayor. He believes Imamoglu has mobilized supporters by signalling a 2023 presidential run.

15:05

🙏 Final remarks and sign-off

Gezici thanks the host for the opportunity to share his analysis. They exchange appreciation and well wishes as the segment concludes.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Election polls

Election polls refer to surveys conducted to understand public opinion and predict election outcomes. In the video, the guest Murat Gezici is the head of a polling company, so his analysis focuses heavily on recent polling data for the upcoming 2024 Turkish local elections. The relative standing of candidates like Mansur Yavas and Turgut Altinok are discussed based on the latest polls.

💡Political alliances

The video discusses the importance of political alliances between parties and candidates in winning elections. For example, it is suggested that the AKP candidate Turgut Altinok needs to ally with former mayor Melih Gokcek to gain his base of nationalist voters.

💡Opposition to Erdogan

There is significant discussion of opposition to President Erdogan as a factor uniting voters against AKP candidates. Polls indicate much of the base of the CHP and IYI Party opposes Erdogan, helping unite them behind candidates like Ekrem Imamoglu.

💡Istanbul mayoral election

The hotly contested Istanbul mayoral election is discussed as one of the most important races in the 2024 local elections. The relative chances of candidates like CHP's Ekrem Imamoglu and AKP's Murat Kurum are analyzed.

💡Ankara mayoral election

The Ankara mayoral race is posited to be a very close contest that will come down to a razor thin margin. The relative chances of candidates like Mansur Yavas and Turgut Altinok are discussed in depth.

💡Depression in AKP base

There is said to be a mood of depression among the base of the AKP, stemming from divisive candidate selections in 2019. This lack of motivation needs to be countered to avoid losing districts like Ankara.

💡HDP candidate speculation

There is speculation around whether the HDP will nominate candidates like former co-chair Başak Demirtaş. This could create competition for the CHP in places like Istanbul.

💡Balıkesir election

The district of Balıkesir is singled out as the one place the AKP alliance could potentially lose power. This demonstrates the overall strength of the government alliance across most of the country.

💡Need for unity

A recurring theme is the need for unity across party lines and diverse groups to succeed electorally. For example, Altinok needs to unify nationalists and Kurds, while Imamoglu appeals across the opposition.

💡Candidates as symbols

Certain candidates like Imamoglu and Kurum are discussed as not just politicians but symbols of broader values. Imamoglu represents opposition unity, while Kurum symbolizes governmental competence.

Highlights

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This is an important contribution that will influence future work in this exciting area.