Di Tengah tantangan Global, Bagaimana Prospek Ekonomi Kita di 2025?

Summary

The transcript outlines a comprehensive discussion on Indonesia's economic outlook for 2025, focusing on both global and domestic challenges. It highlights global economic deceleration, deglobalization, and competition for investments, particularly in emerging markets. Domestically, Indonesia faces challenges such as reduced purchasing power and the need for stronger industrialization. Bank Indonesia’s policy strategy balances stability and growth, with an emphasis on fostering financial inclusivity and developing a robust payment infrastructure. Despite global uncertainties, Indonesia’s economy is projected to grow moderately, with a focus on sustainability, financial innovation, and attracting investment.

Takeaways

• 😀 The global economic outlook for 2025 predicts slower growth due to challenges like China's slowdown and deglobalization.
• 😀 Inward-looking policies, such as those from President Trump’s administration, may reduce global trade and increase inflation, affecting global growth.
• 😀 Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised to 3.1% from an earlier estimate of 3.2% due to these global challenges.
• 😀 Inflation may remain high in the U.S. and other major economies, causing slower declines in inflation rates globally, including in Indonesia.
• 😀 The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates more gradually in 2025, likely lowering by only 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 100 basis points.
• 😀 A stronger USD due to higher yields could affect capital flows to emerging markets, including Indonesia, potentially slowing investment.
• 😀 Domestic challenges for Indonesia in 2025 include industrialization efforts and the weakening purchasing power of lower-income groups.
• 😀 To address these issues, Indonesia must focus on improving its competitiveness in the global market, particularly in relation to other emerging economies in Southeast Asia.
• 😀 Bank Indonesia plans to balance stability and growth, maintaining the stability of the rupiah while fostering economic growth through monetary and macroprudential policies.
• 😀 Key strategies for Indonesia include boosting domestic investment, revamping purchasing power, and leveraging green economy opportunities to reduce the impact of global uncertainties.
• 😀 QR code standardization and other technological innovations in the payment system have contributed significantly to Indonesia's economic growth, with a 60% year-on-year increase in usage.

Q & A

What is the key economic achievement of 2024 mentioned in the script?

The key economic achievement of 2024 mentioned in the script is that the economy remained resilient and reached good performance despite facing various challenges throughout the year.

What are the main challenges anticipated for the global economy in 2025?

The main challenges for the global economy in 2025 include global deceleration, deglobalization due to inward-looking policies, and more intense competition among developing countries to attract investments.

What impact did Donald Trump's election have on global economic policies?

Donald Trump's election led to inward-looking policies that could result in slower global trade, higher inflation, and a potential reduction in global economic growth.

What economic growth rate is predicted for 2025 and how does it compare to the previous forecast?

The economic growth rate predicted for 2025 is 3.1%, slightly lower than the previously forecasted 3.2%, due to the inward-looking policies that are expected to slow down global trade and economic growth.

How will inflation and interest rates be affected in 2025?

Inflation is expected to decrease more slowly than originally anticipated, and interest rates may not decrease as much as previously predicted. The Federal Reserve's interest rate could drop by 50 basis points instead of the expected 100 basis points.

How do inward-looking policies affect the demand for investments in developing countries?

Inward-looking policies, such as protectionist measures, could result in higher demand for U.S. bonds, which would strengthen the U.S. dollar and decrease the flow of capital into developing countries.

What role do competition and regional economic growth play in 2025?

Competition among emerging economies, especially in Southeast Asia, is expected to intensify, with countries like Vietnam and the Philippines projecting growth rates of 6.1% in 2025. This creates pressure on Indonesia to attract investments and maintain strong growth.

What are the main economic strategies Indonesia should focus on in 2025?

Indonesia should focus on revitalizing consumer purchasing power, reducing the investment-to-output ratio (ICOR), and improving intra-regional trade within ASEAN to boost economic growth.

How is the concept of 'green economy' relevant to Indonesia's economic prospects?

The green economy presents a significant opportunity for Indonesia, offering a chance to mitigate some of the negative effects of global economic instability by promoting sustainability and attracting environmentally conscious investments.

What policies has Bank Indonesia implemented to support economic growth?

Bank Indonesia has implemented several key policies including monetary policy for stability, macroprudential policies to support growth, and improvements in the payment system infrastructure, such as the QR Code standardization, which has boosted economic activity.