[지식뉴스] 전쟁 따윈 진짜 두렵지 않은 걸까...김정은 체제 무너뜨리는 방법① (ft.안정식 SBS 북한전문기자) / 교양이를 부탁해 EP.17 / 비디오머그

Summary

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Takeaways

• 😨 North Korea is raising tensions with South Korea, portraying it as a hostile enemy and cutting all ties. This is driven by domestic concerns over the younger generation's consumption of Korean culture.
• 😐 North Korea is unlikely to start a direct war despite the escalating rhetoric, as Kim Jong Un understands that would lead to their downfall. However, military preparedness is still crucial.
• 😕 The prospects of a coup, mass protests, or economic crisis leading to regime collapse in North Korea are low due to tight control mechanisms. External pressure from China and war with the US are also unlikely to bring it down.
• 😬 A more plausible scenario is that power struggles within the regime, such as after Kim Jong Un's potential demise, could destabilize the system over time and open possibilities for change.
• 🤔 A sudden collapse of the Kim dynasty would likely result in a 'hard landing' unification rather than a gradual, 'soft landing' process due to the vast differences between the two Koreas.
• 🤯 Maintaining the dynastic succession through multiple generations faces inherent challenges of finding competent heirs among a limited pool to carry on the regime.
• 🤷‍♂️ While collapse of the regime may create opportunities for Korean unification eventually, there are various variables that make the path forward uncertain.
• 😞 Past moments such as Kim Jong Il's death presented openings that were missed to push for a gradual unification process when North Korea was weaker.
• 😡 North Korea's current escalation is assessed as aimed at swaying the South's upcoming elections rather than signaling an imminent war.

Q & A

What are some of the recent provocative actions taken by North Korea towards South Korea?

Some provocative actions include installing landmines along inter-Korean railways and roads, conducting artillery firing drills near border islands, rebuilding guard posts in the DMZ, and making threats about turning South Korea into its territory.

Why does Kim Jong Un want to cut off all ties and communication with South Korea?

Kim wants to portray South Korea as a complete enemy state in order to prevent North Korean citizens from consuming South Korean media and culture, which he sees as a threat to his regime's control and ideology.

What are some ways the North Korean regime could potentially collapse?

Possibilities include a coup by military leaders, a popular uprising by citizens, economic crisis, external shocks, and defeat in war. But most experts see these as unlikely scenarios currently.

How does South Korea usually react to North Korea's provocations?

There is often a desire to retaliate strongly, but experts advise against this. It's important to keep emphasizing that North and South Koreans are one people and to maintain hope for eventual reunification.

Why is it difficult for an uprising to occur in North Korea?

The regime still maintains an effective apparatus of oppression. Citizens lack experience with democracy and don't have the mental framework to demand political rights. There are also no visible leaders to coordinate any uprising.

What is the difference between 'hard landing' and 'soft landing' reunification?

'Hard landing' refers to sudden reunification due to collapse of the North Korean regime, while 'soft landing' means gradual integration through cooperation and exchanges between the two Koreas.

What are some concerns about the long-term viability of hereditary succession in North Korea?

Relying on bloodline and choosing a successor from a limited pool of Kim's children may not guarantee capable leadership each generation. This could lead to instability and regime fracture over time.

How does South Korean public opinion usually respond when North Korea ramps up provocations?

Research shows North Korean provocations and threats have little impact on South Korean voter preferences. The public is largely immune to North Korea's deliberate attempts to influence elections.

What role does China play in relation to the stability of the North Korean regime?

China's support is vital for the survival of Kim's regime, so China is unlikely to take actions that could lead to outright collapse of North Korea.

If the North Korean regime collapsed, what would be some of the challenges for reunification?

Potential issues include dealing with a flood of refugees, re-education and integration of North Korean citizens, divisions over the speed and approach to integration, and costs of rebuilding the North.