Russian bases in Syria. Erdogan in control

Summary

The situation in Syria remains volatile, with Turkey asserting control under Erdogan, focusing on breaking Kurdish militias and expanding its influence. Israel has fortified its presence in the Golan Heights, possibly preparing for strikes against Iran, while also preventing weapons from reaching hostile regions. The United States faces dilemmas in its support for the Kurds, with relations with Erdogan strained. Meanwhile, Russia is quietly withdrawing from Syria, reducing its involvement, while Iran looks to strengthen ties with Moscow. The Kurds, caught between shifting alliances, face an uncertain future in this complex geopolitical landscape.

Takeaways

• 😀 Russia appears to be quietly withdrawing from Syria, with their forces pulling back and transferring equipment to Libya, despite Turkey's efforts to keep them in the region for leverage.
• 😀 Erdogan views Russia's presence in Syria as a way to stabilize the country, deter U.S. influence, and counter Israeli power. He also aims to use Russia for leverage in broader geopolitical dealings.
• 😀 Turkey, under Erdogan’s control, has significantly influenced Syria’s fate, particularly in the Idlib region, with Turkish-backed forces playing a key role in managing local dynamics.
• 😀 Erdogan’s primary objective in Syria is to break the Kurdish militias, such as the PKK, through ongoing military campaigns, with special forces and mercenaries playing a significant role in the fighting.
• 😀 The Kurdish forces, caught between competing powers, have backed the wrong sides in previous conflicts, leading to a fragile position, now fearing abandonment by the U.S. as Turkey intensifies its efforts against them.
• 😀 Israel has solidified its hold on the Golan Heights and other parts of Syria, with plans to potentially annex and establish settlements. Their primary concern is preventing Iranian military influence in the region.
• 😀 Israel’s destruction of Syria’s air defense systems is part of a broader strategy to weaken Iran’s military capabilities and prepare for a potential missile strike on Iranian targets.
• 😀 Israel’s secondary priority is to prevent the spread of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah, Gaza, and the West Bank, with talks now underway with Jordan to control this flow of arms.
• 😀 The U.S. faces tough decisions regarding its military presence in eastern Syria, balancing its commitment to the Kurds with broader strategic goals, including controlling oil fields and influencing regional politics.
• 😀 Iran, one of the biggest losers in the current Syrian conflict, is seeking to deepen its alliance with Russia as it faces diminishing influence in the region and increasingly limited options for counteracting external pressures.

Q & A

What is the current situation with the Russian military base in Syria?

The Russian military appears to be pulling out from Syria, with reports indicating a gradual and orderly withdrawal. They are relocating their forces and equipment to Libya, signaling their intention to reduce their presence in Syria despite ongoing negotiations with Turkish-backed groups like HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham).

Why does Erdogan want the Russian military to stay in Syria?

Erdogan wants the Russian military to stay because it provides leverage over both Russia and the West. Russia's presence helps Erdogan stabilize Syria, deter American influence, and maintain a check on Israel’s activities. It also strengthens Turkey’s position in broader geopolitical negotiations, including within the BRICS framework.

What is the role of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) in Syria right now?

HTS, under the leadership of Galani, is largely seen as a proxy of Turkey, with little independent power. They serve more as a surface-level force, while behind the scenes, Turkey exerts control over much of the territory in northwestern Syria. HTS is also involved in trying to persuade Russia to maintain its presence in the region.

How has the situation in Syria affected the Kurds?

The Kurds are in a precarious position in Syria, as they have historically aligned with the US, but now fear being betrayed by American forces. Erdogan’s ongoing military campaigns are targeting Kurdish militias, and the Kurds, who failed to strike a deal with the Assad regime, are left vulnerable as a result of their alliances with external powers.

What is Turkey's main objective in Syria, according to the transcript?

Turkey’s primary objective in Syria is to weaken and break the Kurdish militias, particularly the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). Erdogan is determined to eliminate Kurdish military influence in the region, which is a central issue for Turkey's national security.

How does Israel's involvement in Syria play into their broader strategic goals?

Israel's involvement in Syria aims to secure strategic territory, particularly the Golan Heights, and to neutralize Syrian air defenses, which are part of Iran’s broader air defense system. Israel is positioning itself to potentially strike Iran, using Syria as a launchpad for missile strikes while ensuring that weapons from Syria do not reach Palestinian territories like Gaza or the West Bank.

What is the United States’ stance in Syria, and what challenges do they face?

The United States has a complicated situation in Syria, primarily concerned with its long-standing support for the Kurds. There are internal debates about whether the U.S. should remain in eastern Syria, particularly now that ISIS has largely been defeated. However, American forces are still seen as important for controlling oil fields and exerting influence in the region.

What is Israel's strategy regarding Syria's weapons and military capabilities?

Israel is working to prevent Syrian weapons, especially air defense missiles and smaller arms, from reaching the West Bank and Gaza. They have reportedly been engaging with Jordanian authorities to contain the spread of these weapons, especially as part of their broader strategy to contain Iranian influence in the region.

What has been Russia's approach to Syria in recent months?

Russia has been gradually withdrawing its military presence from Syria. While negotiations with Turkey-backed forces like HTS are ongoing, Russia appears to be disengaging from Syria’s internal conflict, consolidating its forces in Libya, and distancing itself from the situation in Syria despite their earlier military involvement.

How is Iran responding to the changing dynamics in Syria and the region?

Iran is shifting its strategy to deepen its military, political, and economic ties with Russia in response to the evolving situation in Syria. The country has recalled its ambassador to Moscow and is strengthening its alliance with Russia, which may provide Iran with greater influence in the region amid the chaos in Syria.