Ukraine can’t counter Oreshnik missile. But it doesn’t have to.

Summary

The Oresnik missile, a new Russian weapon still in development, has caused confusion regarding its classification. Initially misidentified as an ICBM, U.S. officials clarified it as an intermediate-range missile, though it shares design elements with Russia's RS-24 Yars ICBM. With the ability to carry multiple warheads and evade missile defense systems, Oresnik is a formidable weapon. Its range, payload, and potential for use as both a conventional and nuclear delivery system make it highly lethal. However, its high cost and limited numbers suggest it may serve as a political message rather than a game-changing battlefield weapon.

The video is abnormal, and we are working hard to fix it.
Please replace the link and try again.

Q & A

What is the Oresnik missile, and why has it caused confusion regarding its classification?

The Oresnik missile is a new Russian missile that was initially reported as an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) but later clarified by U.S. officials as an IRBM (Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile). The confusion stems from the missile's range and characteristics, which blend features of both ICBMs and IRBMs.

What are the key differences between ICBMs, IRBMs, and MRBMs (Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles)?

ICBMs have a range of over 5,500 km, IRBMs range from 3,000 to 5,500 km, and MRBMs cover distances between 1,000 and 3,000 km. These ranges define the missile's classification but can overlap depending on missile design and payload.

Why is the Oresnik missile considered to be closer to an ICBM than an IRBM despite official classification?

The Oresnik missile is believed to be closer to an ICBM in terms of payload and warhead capacity. Its range is near the IRBM threshold, but its potential to carry multiple warheads and its large size suggest it functions similarly to an ICBM in terms of lethality.

How did the RS-26 'Rubes' contribute to the development of the Oresnik missile?

The Oresnik missile is based on the RS-26 'Rubes,' a missile that was tested to reach 5,800 km, just above the IRBM range. While development of the Rubes was halted, its design may have been used as a foundation for Oresnik's capabilities.

What was the RS-24 Yars, and how did it influence the design of Oresnik?

The RS-24 Yars is a true ICBM with a range of over 11,000 km. It influenced Oresnik's design by offering a basis for multi-stage warhead buses and possibly a reduced third booster stage, which could allow for a smaller, more versatile missile.

What role does the Oresnik's large payload capacity play in its lethality?

The large payload capacity of Oresnik allows it to carry multiple warheads, increasing its lethality. This enables the missile to spread destruction over a wide area, making it difficult to defend against, especially with conventional warheads and submunitions.

Why is the Oresnik missile considered expensive, and how does its cost compare to other high-end weapons?

Oresnik is considered expensive due to its advanced design and payload. While the missile's production cost is unclear, it's estimated to be around $10 million per missile, potentially more. This makes it comparable in price to high-end aircraft like the Q35.

What impact could the Oresnik missile have on missile defense systems?

Oresnik's speed and multiple warheads make it difficult to intercept, even by high-end defense systems. Its rapid flight time and submunition delivery further complicate defense, increasing the likelihood of at least some warheads reaching their targets.

How does the Oresnik missile compare to other Russian missiles in terms of speed?

The Oresnik missile reaches speeds of around Mach 13-14, which is slower than some ICBMs but still faster than many IRBMs. Its speed allows it to evade lower-level missile defenses, but its slower speed compared to lighter payload missiles may limit its range.

What are the potential strategic uses of the Oresnik missile in the context of the war in Ukraine?

Oresnik is more of a political weapon than a practical one in the war in Ukraine, given its high cost and limited availability. It could serve as a demonstration of Russia's missile capabilities, delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads across vast distances, including all of Europe and parts of Alaska.