OpenAI Is FALLING Apart. (Ilya Sutskever Leaving, Super alignment Solved? Superintelligence)

Summary

The video script discusses the recent developments and challenges within the field of artificial intelligence, particularly focusing on OpenAI. It highlights the departure of key figures like Ilya Sutskever and the appointment of Jacob as the new Chief Scientist. The script delves into the concept of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence), emphasizing the urgency of solving the alignment problem to ensure these advanced systems work in humanity's best interest. It also touches on the competitive landscape with companies like Meta investing heavily in AI, aiming to build and distribute general intelligence responsibly. The content warns of the potential risks if AGI and ASI are not developed and managed carefully, suggesting that safety research must be a priority. The video aims to keep viewers informed about the rapid advancements and ethical considerations in AI technology.

Takeaways

• 📉 Ilya Sutskever, a key figure at OpenAI, has left the company and is pursuing a personally meaningful project, with details to be shared in due time.
• 👨‍🔬 Jackob, a prominent researcher, has been appointed as the new Chief Scientist at OpenAI, taking over from Ilya Sutskever.
• 🔍 OpenAI has been experiencing a series of departures, including members of the Super Intelligence Alignment team, which could impact the company's progress on AI safety.
• 🧵 The concept of Super Intelligence (SI) is complex, and there's uncertainty around how to align such a system, with some suggesting that a virtual system could bootstrap itself to solve alignment for subsequent generations.
• 🚨 Concerns have been raised about the potential risks of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence), including the possibility of a 'winner-takes-all' scenario.
• ⏳ Predictions for the arrival of AGI range from as early as 2024 to a median estimate of 2029, with some experts suggesting it could be achieved by the end of this decade.
• 💡 There is a significant investment in AI research and infrastructure by major companies, indicating a belief in the near-term potential of AGI.
• 🔑 Control of AGI and subsequent ASI could lead to unprecedented power and capabilities, potentially resulting in a significant shift in global dynamics.
• 🤖 The 'black box' problem of AI remains a challenge, as the inner workings and decision-making processes of advanced AI models are not fully understood.
• 🔒 The alignment problem is a significant concern, with current strategies involving using each generation of AI to help align the next, though this approach is not without risks.
• ⚙️ Companies are focusing on developing AGI to gain a competitive edge, but there is a call for more emphasis on safety and ethical considerations in AI development.

Q & A

What is the significance of Ilya Sutskever's departure from OpenAI?

Ilya Sutskever's departure is significant as he is considered one of the greatest minds in the field of AI. His leadership and contributions were instrumental in shaping OpenAI, and his exit marks a notable change in the company's technical direction and future projects.

Who is taking over Ilya Sutskever's role at OpenAI?

Jackob, who has been with OpenAI since 2017 and has led transformative research initiatives, including the development of GPT-4 and fundamental research in large-scale reinforcement learning and deep learning optimization, is taking over Ilya Sutskever's role as the new Chief Scientist.

What was Ilya Sutskever's statement regarding his departure from OpenAI?

Ilya Sutskever expressed that after almost a decade, he decided to leave OpenAI. He praised the company's trajectory and expressed confidence in its future under its current leadership. He also mentioned that he was excited about a personally meaningful project he would be sharing details of in due time.

What is the 'Super AI' that OpenAI is working towards, and what are the concerns associated with it?

Super AI, or artificial superintelligence (ASI), refers to a system that surpasses human intelligence in virtually all areas, capable of creating new knowledge and making discoveries beyond human comprehension. The concern is that such a system could potentially go rogue, and if not properly aligned with human values and goals, it could lead to unpredictable and potentially disastrous outcomes.

What is the 'alignment problem' in the context of AI?

The alignment problem refers to the challenge of ensuring that AI systems, particularly superintelligent ones, act in a way that is aligned with human values and interests. It is a significant issue because as AI systems become more advanced, they may develop goals or behaviors that are misaligned with what is beneficial for humanity.

Why is there speculation that OpenAI may have solved the AGI alignment problem?

Speculation arises from the departure of key members of the Super AI team, like Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, which might suggest that they achieved a significant breakthrough. Additionally, the fact that some team members left without providing detailed reasons for their departure fuels this speculation.

What does the term 'blackbox problem' refer to in AI?

The 'blackbox problem' in AI refers to the lack of transparency and interpretability in modern AI models, particularly deep learning models. These models are so complex that even their creators cannot fully understand their inner workings, which poses a risk as unintended behaviors may emerge without the ability to predict or control them.

What is the potential timeline for achieving AGI and ASI according to some experts and companies?

According to some experts and companies, AGI could be achieved by 2029, with a 15% chance predicted for 2024 and an additional 15% for 2025. ASI, being a step beyond AGI, might be achieved shortly after AGI, potentially within a year, if the AGI system is robust and capable enough.

Why is there a concern about the 'Winner Takes All' scenario in the race for AGI?

The 'Winner Takes All' scenario is concerning because the first entity to achieve AGI could use it to rapidly advance and create ASI, thereby gaining an insurmountable lead over competitors. This could lead to a monopolization of technology with significant economic and geopolitical implications.

What is the role of compute power in the development of AGI and ASI?

Compute power is crucial for the development of AGI and ASI as it allows for the training of increasingly complex and capable AI models. With more compute power, companies can experiment with larger datasets and more intricate algorithms, pushing the boundaries of what AI can achieve.

How does the departure of key personnel from OpenAI's Super AI team impact the field of AI safety?

The departure of key personnel can impact AI safety as these individuals were at the forefront of research into aligning superintelligent systems with human values and goals. Their absence may slow progress in this critical area, potentially increasing risks associated with the development of AGI and ASI.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Departure of Ilya Sutskever from OpenAI

The video discusses the recent news of Ilya Sutskever's departure from OpenAI, a significant event as he is considered one of the greatest minds in the field of AI. The host expresses sadness over the loss, acknowledging Sutskever's contributions to the company and his role as a guiding light. The video also introduces Jacob as the new Chief Scientist at OpenAI, highlighting his impressive credentials and the confidence in his ability to lead the company forward. Furthermore, it touches upon Sutskever's future plans, which he mentions as 'personally meaningful,' and the anticipation surrounding his next move in the AI community.

05:01

🚀 OpenAI's Superintelligence Alignment Challenge

This section delves into OpenAI's ambitious goal of solving superintelligence alignment within four years. It outlines the formation of a specialized team aimed at addressing the challenges of artificial superintelligence (ASI), which is expected to surpass human intelligence significantly. The video highlights the loss of key members from the superalignment team, including the resignation of Jan Leike, and speculates on the reasons behind these departures. It also discusses the potential implications of these changes for the future of AI safety and the progress towards aligning superintelligent systems.

10:02

🤖 AGI and ASI: The Future of AI Capabilities

The video explores the concept of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI), emphasizing the transformative impact these technologies could have on society. It discusses the iterative process of aligning successive generations of AI models and the potential for a virtual system to solve alignment problems for newer models. The speaker also addresses concerns about the alignment of superintelligent systems and the challenges that current and future generations of AI pose to researchers in the field.

15:05

📉 Key Departures and the Impact on AI Safety

This part of the video script focuses on the recent departures of key personnel from OpenAI's Super alignment team and the potential consequences for AI safety. It mentions the firing of researchers and the concerns of former employees about the company's responsible behavior in the face of AGI. The video also discusses the speculative nature of whether the alignment problem has been solved and the broader implications of these departures for the field of AI.

20:05

🧐 The Black Swan Event: AGI's Imminent Arrival

The speaker expresses concerns about the potential for AGI to arrive sooner than expected, with predictions ranging from 2024 to 2029. The video highlights the exponential growth of AI capabilities and the belief that AGI could be just around the corner. It also touches on the responses from experts like Daniel about the magical capabilities of ASI and the dramatic shifts in the dynamics of power that AGI could bring about.

25:07

🏆 The Winner-Takes-All Scenario in AGI Development

The video discusses the competitive landscape of AI research and development, suggesting that the first entity to achieve AGI will have a significant advantage, potentially insurmountable for competitors. It emphasizes the demand for AI researchers and the importance of aligning AGI and ASI with human values to prevent misuse. The video also mentions the potential for immortality by 2030 due to advancements in longevity research and AI breakthroughs.

30:08

🚨 The Risks of Unregulated AGI Development

This section addresses the potential risks and regulatory challenges associated with AGI and ASI development. It raises concerns about the lack of understanding of how modern AI models work, likening the complexity of superintelligent systems to explaining economics to a bee. The video also discusses the alignment problem and the potential for a rogue ASI if training runs exceed expectations, highlighting the precarious nature of relying on hope to ensure AI safety.

35:08

🤖 Superhuman AI Systems: The Control Challenge

The video outlines the efforts of OpenAI's alignment team to address the challenge of controlling superhuman AI systems. It discusses the release of the team's first paper, which introduces a new research direction for solving superhuman models. The paper explores the possibility of using smaller, less capable models to supervise larger, more capable ones, as a means to understand and control future AI systems. The video also mentions the concerns about the focus and resources dedicated to safety research amidst the race to develop AGI.

40:09

💰 The Billion-Dollar Race for AGI Breakthroughs

The final paragraph discusses the massive investments being made by companies in the race to develop AGI and the recent technical breakthroughs that suggest timelines for achieving AGI are缩短 (getting shorter). It emphasizes the urgency and rapid pace of development in the field of AI, with companies like Meta committing significant resources to building general intelligence. The video concludes with a call to subscribe for updates on the latest AI news, reflecting the fast-evolving nature of the industry.

Keywords

💡Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

AGI refers to a machine intelligence that possesses the ability to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can do. It is a central theme in the video, as the discussion revolves around the potential for AGI to be developed and the implications it would have on society. The script mentions that AGI could be developed 'any year now' and that it would be a 'winner takes all' scenario for the company that achieves it.

💡Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

ASI, also known as superintelligence, is an AI system that surpasses human intelligence in virtually every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. The video discusses the potential for AGI to quickly lead to ASI, which would have profound effects on humanity. It is mentioned that whoever controls ASI would gain 'Godlike Powers'.

💡Alignment Problem

The alignment problem in AI refers to the challenge of creating AI systems, particularly superintelligent ones, that are aligned with human interests and values. The video emphasizes the difficulty of aligning AGI and ASI with human goals, as these systems could potentially develop goals that conflict with ours. It is a significant concern highlighted by the video's speaker and is central to the ethical and safety discussions around advanced AI.

💡Blackbox Problem

The blackbox problem in AI pertains to the lack of transparency in how AI models, particularly deep learning models, make decisions. The video script mentions that AI models are not programmed in a traditional sense, and thus their inner workings are not fully understood. This poses a significant challenge when trying to predict and control the behavior of advanced AI systems.

💡Exponential Growth

Exponential growth describes a process where growth continues to increase at an accelerating rate. In the context of the video, it is used to illustrate the rapid advancements in AI technology and the potential for AGI and ASI to be developed sooner than expected. The script suggests that the timelines for achieving AGI are shortening due to the exponential nature of technological progress.

💡Weak to Strong Generalization

This concept refers to the idea of using a less capable model to supervise a more capable one, as a method to manage and understand more complex AI systems. The video discusses this as a potential approach to the alignment problem, where a smaller, more understandable AI system could be used to guide the development and behavior of a larger, more powerful one.

💡OpenAI

OpenAI is a research and deployment company that aims to develop friendly AI in a way that benefits humanity as a whole. The video script discusses OpenAI's role in the development of AGI and its efforts to address the alignment problem. It also mentions the departure of key figures from OpenAI, which has raised concerns about the organization's direction and the broader implications for AI safety.

💡Compute

In the context of AI, compute refers to the computational resources, such as processing power and memory, required to train and run AI models. The video emphasizes the increasing investment in compute infrastructure by companies like OpenAI and Meta to advance AI research. The script mentions that the development of AGI and ASI is heavily dependent on access to vast amounts of compute.

💡Elia Satova

Elia Satova is a prominent figure in the field of AI, mentioned in the video as having parted ways with OpenAI. His departure is significant as he is considered one of the greatest minds in the field, and his work and vision have been influential in the development of AI. His leaving OpenAI to work on a personally meaningful project is a key event discussed in the video.

💡Safety Research

Safety research in AI focuses on ensuring that AI systems are developed and deployed in a manner that is safe and beneficial for humanity. The video discusses concerns that not enough resources are being dedicated to safety research relative to the rapid development of AGI. It is highlighted as a critical area that needs more attention to prevent potential negative outcomes.

💡Scalability

Scalability in the context of AI refers to the ability of a system or process to handle growing amounts of work, or to be expanded to accommodate this growth. The video discusses the need for scalable training methods for AI systems, particularly as we move towards more complex models like AGI and ASI. Scalability is key to managing the alignment and control of these advanced systems.

Highlights

Ilia Sutskever, a key figure in AI, has left OpenAI and is moving on to a new project.

Jacob Steinhardt has been appointed as the new Chief Scientist at OpenAI.

Steinhardt's impressive background includes leading significant projects and contributions to deep learning systems.

Ilia Sutskever expressed confidence in OpenAI's future and shared his excitement for his upcoming, personally meaningful project.

OpenAI has been experiencing a loss of key team members, raising concerns about AI safety.

The concept of 'super alignment' is introduced, aiming to solve the core technical challenges of super intelligence alignment within four years.

Two key members of the super alignment team at OpenAI, including Ilya Sutskever, have left the company.

Jan Leike, head of alignment, resigned from OpenAI, leaving the super alignment team without its lead.

Leike's resignation sparks speculation about the status of the alignment problem and the future direction of AI safety at OpenAI.

Researchers speculate that the easier problem of aligning next-generation models like GPT n+1 might be closer to a solution.

Daniel Hendrycks, a prominent voice in AI safety, left OpenAI citing concerns about responsible behavior around AGI.

Hendrycks' departure indicates a potential lack of confidence in OpenAI's approach to AGI development.

OpenAI's focus on safety research is questioned, with only a fraction of resources dedicated to alignment and control.

The potential for a 'winner-takes-all' scenario in AI is discussed, emphasizing the importance of being the first to achieve AGI.

The rapid pace of AI development suggests that AGI could be achieved within the current decade.

The transition from AGI to ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) is expected to be swift, with significant implications for humanity.

The potential for immortality by 2030 is mentioned due to advancements in longevity research and the possibilities of ASI.

Concerns are raised about the 'black box' problem in AI, where the inner workings of AI models are not fully understood.

OpenAI's strategy for aligning future AI systems using each generation to inform the next is described.

The risks of creating a rogue ASI that does not align with human values or interests are acknowledged.

Transcripts

so I'm just going to get straight into

this video because there's no point in

wasting time I think certain parts of

open aai are truly starting to fall

apart and this video might be a long one

but trust me every single slide has been

carefully created so that you guys can

understand all of the information and

how you can see here that one of the

main things that we got today was the

news of Ilia satova and open AI this was

something that a lot of people were

actually waiting on because we hadn't

heard from IIA pretty much since

November and even in recent interviews

Sam Alman consistently refused to speak

upon what Ila's status was at opening

eye but we finally have the news he says

that Ilia and open ey are going to part

ways this was very sad to me Ilia is

easily one of the greatest minds of Our

Generation a Guiding Light of our field

and a dear friend his Brilliance and

vision are well known his warmth and

compassion are less welln but no less

important opening ey would not be what

it is today without him although he has

some personally meaningful he is going

to work on I am forever grateful for

what he did here and committed to

finishing the mission we started

together I am happy that for so long I

got to be close to such a genuinely

remarkable genius and someone so focused

on getting the best future for Humanity

Jacob is going to be our new Chief

scientist jackob is easily one of the

greatest minds of Our Generation and I'm

thrilled he's taking the Baton here he

has run many of our most important

projects and I'm very confident he will

lead us to make rapid and safe progress

press towards our mission of ensuring

that AGI benefits everyone so that

statement there clearly shows that Elia

satova is no longer working at open aai

and is going to be working on something

else and this is something that at least

we can say now we have some kind of

closure on where one of the greatest

mines in AI where they are going to be

now one of the things I did want to know

is I wanted to know that who is going to

be replacing Elia satova at open Ai and

that is of course jackob now essentially

if we look at who jackob is jaob is now

the chief scientist at open aai where he

has led transformative research

initiative since 2017 he has previously

served as director of research

spearheading the development of GPT 4

and open A5 and fundamental research in

large scale reinforcement learning and

deep learning optimization he has been

instrumental in refocusing the company's

Vision towards scaling deep Learning

System and jackob holds a PhD in

theoretical computer science from

Carnegie melan University so clearly

this is someone with a very very

impressive resume and clearly has all of

the necessary skills to take on the AI

Niche now as for Elia satova something

that I know many people have been

wondering is what did he say and he

posted this tweet after quite some time

he said after almost a decade I have

made the decision to leave open AI the

company's trajectory has been nothing

short of miraculous and I'm confident

that open AI will build AGI that is both

safe and beneficial under the leadership

of Sam mman Greg Brockman miror moratti

and now under the excellent research

leadership of jackob it was an honor and

a privilege to have worked together and

I will miss everyone dearly so long and

thanks for everything I am excited for

what comes next a project that is very

personally meaningful to me about which

I shall share details in due time so

clearly Ilia seems to have left on good

terms despite the entire tumultuous

period that was the firing of Sam Alman

but I think one of the most interesting

things that most people are looking

forward to now is of course what comes

next so it says that he is excited for

what comes next and it's a project

that's very personally meaningful to me

about which I will share details in due

time so whatever Ilia satova is going to

do next I'm guessing that we will

receive an update I guess maybe a few

weeks could be a few months I have no

idea but it seems that we're going to be

getting an update sometime in the near

future now essentially there was also

this Peach whilst things on the surface

might look like opening eyes completely

fine the following slides that I'm about

to show you do showcase an entirely

different picture because open AI has

been losing key members of their most

important team in regards to AI safety

and I'm about to break this all down for

you because when I started to do the

research on this I was like wow things

are starting to look a little bit

pessimistic in terms of AI safety now

Ilia also did tweet this pict picture

with the rest of the open AI team but I

do remember that during December there

were some tweets by IIA satova where

there were some tweets that were vaguely

worded in a way that kind of implied

that openai was in a toxic work

environment he said that I learned many

lessons this past month one such lesson

is that the phrase the beatings will

continue until morale improves applies

more than than it has any right to and

this of course could be just dubious

speculation with regards to what he was

talking about but during the time that

this was tweeted it could be argued that

it was only related to one key event and

that of course was open AI at that time

but there was not really many statements

in addition to this because of the

secrecy of why Sam one was fired now

here's where things get really really

crazy most people don't know about super

alignment because it's something that is

in the future so if you don't know what

super alignment is this is opening I's

plan to solve super intelligence and

that is basically a system that is much

better than AGI so it says our goal is

to solve the core technical challenges

of super intelligence alignment in 4

years and basically what they did was

they decided to build a specific team to

solve this specific problem because they

knew that in the future they're going to

have AGI and after AGI comes ASI which

is artificial super intelligence and

super intelligence is quite hard to

explain but just think of it like this

if AGI can do a better task than any

human at pretty much everything and it's

going to be everywhere artificial super

intelligence is going to be able to do

things that you can't even fathom it's

going to be able to create new knowledge

do new research discover cures for

certain incurable diseases at the moment

it's pretty much going to feel like a

magical time if we manage to get super

intelligence right now essentially with

super intelligence you've got the

problem because you're Building A system

that is that smart it could go Rogue and

if a super intelligence goes Rogue we

literally don't stand a chance because

if a system is super intelligent it's

going to be able to outsmart us and

we're not going to be able to understand

what its goals are or even what it's

doing and you can see here that they

said that this might not even work it

says whil this is an incredibly

ambitious goal we're not guaranteed to

succeed we optimistic that a focused

concentrated effort can help solve this

problem there are many ideas that have

shown promise in preliminary experiments

and we have increasingly useful metrics

for progress and we can use today's

models to study many of these problems

empirically so here's where things start

to fall apart for open AI okay here's

where things really start to you know

like the alarm bills really start to go

so elas atava okay has made this core

research his focus and will be

co-leading this team with Jan like the

head of alignment okay and it says

joining the team are researchers and

Engineers from previous alignment teams

as well as other researchers across the

company now the thing is okay this super

alignment team that was meant to figure

out how to solve the alignment problem

for artificial super intelligence okay

elas satava is now gone and Jan like

today actually quit quit Okay so two key

members of the super alignment team are

now gone you can see that earlier today

Jan like literally tweeted I resigned

okay now the thing that I think was the

most interesting about this was the fact

that Janik didn't say anything other

than I resigned remember when Elia

satova resigned he said this heartfelt

meage that you know shows that he kind

of cares about opening eye and where it

goes but Jan like stating that you know

I resigned with you know just no further

context I mean it leaves it open to

complete speculation with as to why he

did resign now like I said before this

is a problem because these were the

people that were trying to solve super

alignment but you have to understand

that this does actually get a lot worse

because they're not the only people that

resigned from Super alignment in terms

of the team now one of the things that

you need to know about super alignment

and a lot of people are starting to

speculate is that because the head of

alignment at Super alignment resigned

today maybe this means that they solved

the alignment problem okay in terms of

aligning a super intelligence so if you

don't believe this let's take a look at

what Jan like said in a recent interview

now I've listened to this it's over two

hours but this is the main bit that you

need to pay attention to so he says if

you're thinking about how you align the

super intelligence how do you align a

system that's vastly smarter than humans

I don't know I don't have an answer I

don't think anyone really has an answer

but that's also not the problem that we

fundamentally need to solve maybe this

problem isn't even solvable by humans

who live today but there is this easier

problem how do you align the system that

is in the Next Generation how do you

align GPT n+ one and that is a

substantially easier problem so it's

basically saying how do you align

currently GPT 5 then when you have GPT 5

how do you align gp6 when you have GPT 6

how do you align gpt7 so he's basically

stating that that is a much easier

problem and he goes into more detail

here and he says okay and this is

basically the highlighted part and so if

you get a virtual system to be aligned

it can then solve the alignment problem

for GPT n plus1 and then you can itly

bootstrap yourself until you're at Super

intelligence level and you figured out

how to align that so basically he's

stating that even if humans can solve

the problem of GPT n plus1 basically

humans shouldn't be doing that but a

virtual system as smart as human should

be doing that and then if you get that

system to be aligned it can then solve

the alignment problem for GPT n plus1

and then you can itely bootstrap

yourself until you actually at Super

intelligence if you're thinking about

like how do you actually align a super

intelligence how do you align the system

that's vastly smarter than humans I

don't know I don't have an answer I

don't think anyone really has an answer

but it's also not the problem that we

fundamentally need to solve right

because like maybe this problem isn't

even solvable by like humans who live

today but there's this like easier

problem which is like how do you align

the system that is the next Generation

how do you align GPD n plus1 and that is

a substantially easier problem

and then even more if humans can solve

that problem then so should a virtual

system that is as smart as the humans

working on the problem and so if you get

that virtual system to be aligned it can

then solve you know the alignment

problem for GPT n plus one and then you

can iteratively bootstrap yourself until

you you know actually you're like at

Super intelligence level and you figured

out how to align that and of course

what's important when you're doing this

is like at Ed each step you have to make

enough progress on the problem that

you're confident that gbd n plus one is

aligned enough that you can use it for

alignment research and he says of course

what's important when you're doing this

is that at each step you have to make

enough progress on the problem that

you're confident that GPT n plus1 the

next model whatever it is is aligned

enough so that you can actually use it

for alignment research so basically what

he's saying is that every time we go an

increase from GPT 4 to GPT or whatever

next Frontier Model is we have to make

sure that that model is so aligned that

we can then use that current model for

alignment research but this is why a lot

of people now have thought okay that if

two of the key members of the founding

members of super alignment have now left

okay remember these guys left they

didn't get fired these guys left that

means and remember he said I resigned

okay with nothing no further context

that means that maybe they actually

managed to solve this alignment problem

okay and if you think that it's not that

bad take a look at this this person

Leopold who used to work at Super

lineman at open ey he also no longer

works at open ey now he was actually

fired okay it says open ey has fired two

researchers for allegedly leaking

information according to a person with

knowledge of the situation okay Leopold

and someone else okay who was also an

ally of Ilia satova who participated in

a failed effort to force Sam mman last

fall and you can also see here it says

opening ey staffers had actually

disagreed on whether the company was

developing AI safely enough now what's

crazy about this okay is that the two

people that were fired recently at open

they were actually members of the super

alignment team so when you look at the

picture now you can see that in the

recent paper where openai were talking

about weak to strong generalization

eliciting strong capabilities with weak

supervision this is basically a paper

where they're trying to solve super

alignment and they showing how it can be

done I've crossed out four names here

because these four people no long work

at open ey we can see pavl Leopold Jan

like and Elia Sova none of these people

work at open ey anymore this is

basically a paper where they're trying

to solve super alignment and they're

showing how it can be done I've crossed

out four names here because these four

people no longer work at open ey we can

see pavl Leopold Jan like and elas Sova

none of these people work at open ey

anymore pavl who was a you know

researcher okay who was on the previous

paper and super AI alignment open AI he

actually now works at Elon musk's AI

company so it will be interesting to see

how his career also develops now what's

also crazy is that you might be thinking

okay just a few people from Super

alignment left that might not be that

crazy well that's not the truth as well

as I dug into more things I realized

that more people from open ey also left

as well so you can see right here that

it says open ey researchers Daniel and

William recently left the company behind

C chat GPT it says Daniel said on a

forum he doesn't think that open ey will

behave responsibly around the time of

AGI so this is a key reason and I think

it's important to understand that when

people leave we have to look at why they

leave okay if someone's leaving for you

know family reasons or personal reasons

that is completely different but if

someone's stating that they're leaving

this company because he doesn't believe

that they'll behave responsibly around

the time of AGI that is a key key key

indicator that maybe just maybe

something is wrong you can see here it

says Daniel was on the governance team

and Saunders were worked on super

alignment team at openi so this is five

people from the original Super alignment

team have now completely left open eye

and that is remarkable considering the

fact that since the super alignment team

was formed it was meant to solve super

alignment within 4 years but literally

five of the founding members have gone

and four of them that were on this

recent paper are no longer there and you

have to understand that super alignment

is one of the key things that we need to

solve if we're going to increase air

capabilities which is why many is

speculating that the GPT n+1 alignment

problem has been solved since it was a

substantially easier problem to solve

now one thing that did really concern me

was Daniel's actual post about magical

capabilities and other futuristic things

that artificial super intelligence can

do and this is something that I did

Cover in another video which I'm going

to include here now but the point is as

I'm about to explain to you how crazy

this is about to get guessing that if we

take a look at what we've seen here

which I'm about to explain and the fact

that members of the super lineman team

are just gone like literally five six

people from the team are now gone some

people are speculating whether or not

this problem has solved and now it's

literally just a compute problem and

we're just building data centers because

we already know how to get to AGI but

anyways if you want to take a look at

what Daniel said because he said he

doesn't believe that open a are going to

uh you know behave responsibly around

the time of AGI because it's a very

powerful tool that will be allowed to do

pretty much anything in terms of the

fact that it's going to grant them

immense power and will literally shift

Dynamics in certain countries I think

you need to take a look at how crazy

this document is what Daniel said before

he left open a eye because it was truly

eye opening to see what he thinks the

future is going to be like intense so

we're going to go through this list

because there actually is quite a lot of

things to talk about and a lot of things

that you do need to be aware of because

a lot of people that saw this list

thought about a few things but didn't

think about how the industry is going to

evolve as a whole so let me tell you why

this was actually genuinely a shocking

statement because there was one of them

that I saw and I was like okay that is a

super big deal and that just completely

changes my timeline so one of the things

that he did state is essentially

probably there will be AGI coming soon

and that's any year now and this is

something that unfortunately doesn't

surprise me if you've been paying

attention to this base you'll know that

we've had many different instances and

inklings of AGI and essentially many of

us do kind of feel like we're on the

edge of our seat because we know that

AGI is just around the corner now that's

for a variety of factors like the fact

that openi has been you know in a really

really strange position with it you know

delaying releases on multiple products

with it having the Sam Alman firing um

and other companies are also having

major breakthroughs and working on AGI

as well so um literally any year now we

could definitely be getting AGI not only

just because of the way that these

companies are but the significant

investment that they're also getting to

now he also uh spoke here and you can

see that he responded to someone's

question in terms of the percentage of

AGI so he said why do you have a 15%

chance for 2024 and only an additional

15 for 2025 now I do think we get AGI by

the end of 2025 or at least you know

some kind of lab makes an insane

breakthrough and we have AGI by the end

of 2025 that's just what I kind of

believe but he says do you really think

that there's a 15% chance of AGI this

year and he says yes I really do I'm

afraid I can't talk about all of the

reasons for this you know I work at open

AI but mostly it should be figureoutable

from the publicly available information

which we've discussed several times on

this channel now my timelines were

already fairly short 2029 is the median

which is essentially the most common and

when I joined openi in early 2022 and

the things have gone mostly as I've

expected I've learned a bunch of stuff

some of which updated me towards and

some of which updated me downwards as

for the 15 15% thing I don't feel

confident that those are the right

numbers rather those numbers express my

current state of uncertainty I could see

the case for making 2024 number higher

than the 2025 of course because

exponential distribution Vibes if it

doesn't work now then there evidence it

won't works next year and I could also

see the case for making 2025 year higher

of course projects take twice as long as

one expects due to the planning fallacy

so essentially he's stating that you

know 15% this year 30% chance next year

but of course he's saying that you know

he could be completely wrong now with

AGI a predictions of course it's

anyone's guess but um this prediction by

AR invest essentially is a good visual

media to kind of look at when you're

looking at how AGI is going to progress

in the next couple of years now

something I do want to say about this is

the exponential nature of things because

they also do you know take that into

account with the fact that essentially

it was predicted for the end of uh you

know the 2029 or 2030 which is where

many people have predicted it I'm not

going to get into the next point in a

moment which is really what just kind of

shocked me um but essentially you can

see here that every time you know as as

time is going down you can see that

we're going down like this way as the

for forecast era continues it seems that

by 2027 but of course we can see that

there are these huge drop offs where

technology kind of just keeps on

dropping off so of course it's like

exponential it's kind of like s-curve

growth where you kind of go up and then

you kind of plateau for a little bit and

then you kind of get that next boom once

there is that next thing we're kind of

seeing like an inverted S curve um on

that graph as well and I know I showed

this in a previous video just wanted to

show it again so you guys can visualize

where things are going so the median the

most common prediction is 2029 some

people are predicting next year and

there are a few small reasons why but I

definitely do believe that if anyone is

going to get to it it will be open AI

obviously because of um the kind of

talent that they have the kind of you

know researches that they have it's a

unique team and open AI researchers are

some of the most sought after Talent

like you know um essentially it's so

crazy that you know I think there was

someone recently that was hired from uh

Google that went to a different company

and then Google started paying the

person four times more just because AI

researchers are so in demand right now

because it's such a competitive space

that um there is one tweet that I do I'm

going to come back to again that I think

you guys need to understand that if

someone develops AGI I think you guys

have to understand that it's going to be

a Winner Takes all scenario because it's

only a race until one company reach

reaches AI once once that happens the

distance to their competitors is

potentially infinite and it will be

noticeable for example raising a quar

trillion of the US GP now of course some

people are stating that this is where

you know open AI has already achieved

AGI they're just trying to raise raise

compute because they realized that we're

going to need a lot more compute for

this kind of system but Others May

disagree and I kind of do agree that you

know potentially um they probably have

internal AGI but just need more compute

to actually bring the system to reality

because certain things they just simply

can't test because they're trying to run

GPT 4 they're also trying to run some

other systems like Sora they're also

trying to to to give some of their

compute to Super alignment um so that is

a thing as well now this is the

statement that really did Shock Me Okay

um and this is why uh I my timelines got

updated because it changes everything

okay so it said he says uh probably

whoever controls AGI will be you will be

able to use it to get to artificial

super intelligence shortly thereafter

maybe in another year give it or take a

year now you have to understand that AGI

is essentially a robot that is

apparently as good as all

humans pretty much any task okay so

pretty much any task you can think of um

that can be done in a non-physical realm

and AGI is going to be able to be better

than 99% of humans okay according to um

deep mined levels of AGI paper and

essentially right now we have gbt 4

which is a lowlevel AGI so when we do

get that AGI system it's going to

accelerate everything because it means

that you know we can just duplicate

researchers we can duplicate

mathematicians we can duplicate people

um doing a whole bunch of stuff okay and

essentially this is crazy because

artificial super intelligence is

completely Next Level artificial

superintelligence is an intelligence

that is so smart that it will be able to

just make consistent breakthroughs and

it's going to fundamentally change our

understanding of everything we know

because because it's going to be that

smart okay and that is of course a

problem because of course there's

alignment problems and stuff like that

but the problem is is that artificial

super intelligence is something that

people didn't really even talk about

because it's so it's seemingly so far

away but they're sating that whoever

controls AGI will be able to use it to

get to ASI shortly after so if it's a

true AGI like a really good one um

getting to ASI won't take that long and

that is a true statement and something

that I didn't think about that much but

it's crazy because super intelligence

open I have openly stated that um super

intelligence will be the most impactful

technology Humanity's ever invented and

could help us solve many of the world's

most important problems but the vast

power of superintelligence could also be

very dangerous and it could lead to

disempowerment of humanity or even human

extension and it states that while super

intelligence seems far off now we

believe it could arrive this decade and

that's why this is kind of shocking

because open eye are saying that you

know okay some people think that AGI is

going to be by 2029 but they're stating

that not AGI by 29 2029 we state that

super intelligence could be here by the

end of this decade so super intelligence

could be here which means that you know

if we take a look and we kind of like

look at the actual you know data and we

think okay what's actually going on here

we could get AGI realistically by 2026

then we could get AGI by 2029 that's

something that could happen due to the

nature of exponential growth and these

timelines and open AI stated that

themselves so that's why they're also

actually working on that kind of

alignment because they know that it is

very very soon now in addition if you

want to talk predictions you have to

call on Rayo as well essentially he's a

futurist and he has made a lot of

predictions 147 and there's an 86% win

ratio I guess whatever you want to call

it now of course some people have you

know debated whether or not this ratio

is as high as he claims but um I would

say that his predictions have come true

a decent amount now essentially his

prediction on AGI is that artificial

intelligence will achieve human level by

2029 which is once again still going to

be pretty crazy even if it does happen

at 2029 because if we take a look at it

because I remember Elon Musk stated that

by 2027 everyone's timelines is getting

shorter and shorter by the day and we do

know that if we take a look at what's

actually going on right now um if we had

AGI within 2 years it's something that

genely wouldn't surprise everyone

especially with what we saw with s and

now another thing about um you know Ray

kwell that he actually stated that was

actually quite shocking and this is why

um I don't think you guys understand the

kind of world that we could be living in

if we actually do get AGI and then ASI

is because um he's stating that you know

there's a possibility that we might

achieve immortality by the year 2030 and

that's because of course we are like

doing well in terms of you know

longevity research and that kind of

stuff but if we do have artificial super

intelligence it's going to allow us to

do a lot of things like a lot of

breakthroughs that are just going to

completely change everything and that's

why this is so shocking because I didn't

realize that it could only take a year I

I don't know I mean I think that maybe

people aren't thinking about things such

as you know the actual compute the

actual you know laws in place that might

try to regulate this kind of stuff into

the ground the kind of uh maybe there's

going to be some kind of I guess you

could say Financial crashes or

essentially other things that could

potentially stop this but provided

everything is smooth like like there's

no you know Black Swan event there's no

like Bubonic plague the world doesn't

need to go into a shutdown and AGI

research isn't kind of delayed um ASI by

the end of the decade is a pretty scary

thing to think about okay and that is

why I stated that this genuinely did

shock me and one of the craziest things

as well like I said I was going to come

back to this okay how on Earth do other

companies catch up like I think think

about this okay so let's say your

opening eye okay you are working on

artificial general intelligence you do

it one day you wake up your researchers

you know your whole team is like look

we've done it we've achieved AGI we've

benchmarked it on all of this it's 99%

on this on that and that and that um

we've done it we've achieved AGI boom

okay how on Earth do other companies

catch up because the moment you get AGI

you can use it to I guess you could say

get towards ASI and you know you

immediately get like your company your

company just scales like 10x overnight

or even 100x overnight because all you

need to do is get the AGI to be able to

do certain things and you know it's

going to be relatively cheap to you in

terms of hiring another person that

you'd have to pay like a million a year

with open AI you could essentially have

these super powerful researchers doing

tons and tons of alignment research you

know ASI research and your company could

get an additional 100 employees every

day as long as you're scaling with

compute how on Earth do other AI

companies catch up to a company that's

basically achieved escape velocity and I

don't think they will like I genuinely

don't think that other companies will

catch up unless they quickly unless you

know somehow it leaks and the agit Tech

is you know widely distributed and then

of course you know when I say AGI Tech

I'm actually talking about the fact that

the agite tech is going to be the

research papers and the research behind

it not you know opening eye giving you

restrained access like they do with gbt

4 because the verion that we even get a

very very nerfed down model to what the

raw capabilities of the models offer so

essentially um you know this is some of

anthropics pitch deck when they wanted

to raise money in 2023 and they

basically said that we believe that

companies that train the best 2025 to

2026 models will be too far ahead for

anyone to catch up in subsequent Cycles

so um and if you don't know who

anthropic are they're a big AI company

that is kind of competing with openi

some of the open AI researchers did

leave to create anthropic because they

wanted to focus on safety but the point

here is that I don't think they catch up

and it does make sense if you have a

company that has AGI they have arguably

the best technology in in the last 20

years and with that they can grow their

company exponentially so I don't think

people catch up I think it's just you

know they're going to be so far gone

that it's going to be pretty crazy to

see what happens and I think the reason

that this is a thing is because this is

why people are stating that openi have

achieved Ai and they're currently using

it to develop things like Sora and stuff

and if that is true it kind of does make

sense cuz Sora definitely blew my hat

off like it's just like whoa like even

as someone who looks at AI all the time

when I saw that I was like whoa okay I

didn't think we were that close but um

yeah it's it's definitely pretty crazy

and um it it goes on okay so here it

states Godlike Powers okay so it says

probably whoever controls ASI listen to

this this is the craziest bit that I was

reading this and I was like is this even

real am I even living in a reality right

now it says probably who whoever

controls artificial superintelligence

will have access to spread to a spread

of powerful skills and abilities that

will be able to build and wield

technologies that seem like magic to us

just as modern tech would seem like

magic to medievals this will probably

give them Godlike Powers over whoever

doesn't control ASI so that brings an

important question do you think open AI

let's say they have ASI they have it

aligned do you think open AI are going

to distribute ASI or are they just going

to you know patent all the Technologies

as a kind of subsidiary of open as of

open cuz if they have ASI and nobody

else has it that's going to be the most

valuable thing on the planet and if

they're able to distribute cure if

they're able to distribute you know new

technology I mean that's going to make

the company super super super valuable

because like it states here they're

probably going to give them Godlike

Powers over anyone who doesn't control

ASI because that level of smartness is

unfathomable like it's very hard to

conceptualize how smart it is because

according to several reports and you

know researchers and stuff like that

it's basically like trying to explain

economics to essentially a b like you

know a b the thing that buzzes around

try to explain economics to that it it

it's it's very hard to conceptualize how

you would even begin to explain that to

a be I mean first you'd have to teach it

English then you'd have to teach it so

many other different concepts and um

that is going to be something that is

pretty pretty crazy I mean I mean trying

to even teach it abstract context so um

whilst this does seem good and whilst

you know Godlike powers and stuff like

that and you know which is why all these

companies are racing to achieve AGI

because they know once that is there

it's like you gain an instant 100x speed

boost in this kind of race the problem

is is that there is the blackbox problem

and a lot of people are starting to

forget about this problem as we Edge

closer and closer towards the edge of

this huge Cliff that we could be on um

is the fact that it states in general

there's a lot we don't understand about

modern deep learning modern AIS are

trained not built SL programmed we can't

theorize for example that they are

generally robustly helpful and in and

honest instead of just biing their time

we can't check so the problem here is

that um we don't know how these AR

models work we actually don't know

what's inside them we don't know how

everything is going together it's not

like you write a code and you understand

exactly how the code works this is not

how these AI models are going to be and

in the future um it's going to be a

bigger problem because if we're you know

growing an AI which is what some

researchers have claimed which is

essentially that would be a more

accurate description if we're doing that

how on Earth are we then going to

understand really um these even super

intelligent systems if we don't really

understand the ones we have now so um

it's pretty crazy it's it's generally

like like I'm trying hard to put it into

words but it is a very very giant

problem that people are trying to solve

and of course um here's we have this

okay so the alignment problem further

currently no one knows how to control

artificial super intelligence which is

true and they are working on it this is

what open ey is currently working on and

it says if one of our training runs

turns out to work way better than we

expect we'd have a rogue artificial

super Intelligence on our hands and

hopefully it would have internalized

enough human effects that things would

be okay and that's a crazy statement I

don't care what you say that is insane

because he's basically saying that look

if our training runs work out to be

better than we expect unfortunately

we're going to have a rogue ASI on our

hands because we don't know how to we

don't know how to align it they're

basically saying that look if we train

the next model and it's super smart or

artificially super intelligent which I

don't think it will be I do think that

you need a ton of compute just like how

you skilled things up with before it

says hopefully we're just we're just

basically just hoping that it's not

crazy okay um and that is quite scary

that you know hope is mentioned here so

it says there are some reasons to be

hopeful about that but there are also

some reasons to be pessimistic and the

literature on the topic is small and

preag dtic which is of course true then

of course we have um Sam Alman which is

a great clip which you guys should take

a look at because he actually talking

about um the alignment problem is like

we're going to make this incredibly

powerful system and be really bad if it

doesn't do what we want or or if it sort

of has you know goals that are uh either

in conflict with ours um many Sci-Fi

movies about what happens there or goals

where it just like doesn't care about us

that much and so the alignment problem

is how do we build AI that that does

what is in the best interest of humanity

how do we make sure that Humanity gets

to determine the you know the future of

humanity um and how do we avoid both

like accidental misuse um like where

something goes wrong that we didn't

intend intentional misuse where like a

bad person is like using an AGI for

great harm even if it that's what the

person wants and then the kind of like

you know inner alignment problems where

like what if this thing just becomes a

creature that views this as a threat the

the way that I think the self-improving

systems help us is not necessarily by

the nature of self-improving but like we

have some ideas about how to solve the

alignment problem at small scale um and

we've you know been able to align open

ai's biggest models better than we

thought we we would at this point so

that's good um we have some ideas about

what to do next um but we cannot

honestly like look anyone in the eye and

say we see out 100 years how we're going

to solve this problem um but once the AI

is good enough that we can ask it to

like hey can you help us do alignment

research um I think think that's going

to be a new tool in the toolbox so

essentially In that clip Sam mman

Actually does talk about how they're

going to use AI an internalized version

of maybe an a AGI or narrow AI That's

able to really really understand how to

align um these AI systems and of course

he does talk about the fact that you

know we could have an AI that just you

know eventually evolves into some kind

of creature that just you know does its

own thing and that's pretty scary coming

from someone who's the CEO of a major

company that is building some of the

most impactful technology that we will

have in our lifetimes and essentially of

course here we talk about the best plan

and it says our current best plan

championed by the people winning the

race to AI is to use each generation of

AI systems to figure out how to align

and control the Next Generation and this

plan might work but skepticism is

warranted on many levels so open AI did

actually talk about um their approach to

this and I think it's important to

actually look at this because their goal

is to build a roughly human level

automated alignment researcher and then

basically saying that we can then use

vast amounts of compute to scale our

effort and itely align super

intelligence super Intelligence being

that crazy Smart Level AI system that's

going to have goals beyond our

understanding and essentially they're

saying to align the first automated

alignment researcher we're going to need

to develop a scalable Training Method

validate the resulting model and stress

test the entire alignment pipeline so of

course they're going to do adverse

serial testing where essentially they're

going to test the entire pipeline by

basically stating that you know they're

going to try to just see what kind of

goes wrong but in a kind of sandbox

environment and of course try to like

like detect how things would go wrong so

um I'm guessing that this is you know

one of their approaches and of course uh

they've shown that this kind of does

work so essentially there's a thing

called weak to strong generalization

eliciting strong capabilities with weak

supervision so I'm going to show you

guys that page now and essentially here

you can see they talk about the super

intelligent problem and of course super

intelligent is a big problem and this is

actually pretty recent which is uh quite

interesting this was December the 14th

2023 so around 2 three months ago they

said we believe super intelligence and

AI vastly smarter than humans could be

developed within the next 10 years

however we don't know how to reliably

steer and control superhuman AI systems

so solving this problem is essential for

ensuring that even the most advanced AI

systems are beneficial to humanity just

going to zoom in here we formed the T

alignment team earlier this year to

solve this problem and today we're

releasing the team's first paper which

introduces a new research Direction um

for officially solving superhuman models

so basically they state that you know

future AI systems will be capable of

extremely complex and creative behaviors

that will make it hard for humans to

basically look over them and watch and

understand for example superhuman models

may be able to write millions of lines

of code potentially dangerous computer

code that will be very hard for even

expert must to understand so essentially

they made this kind of setup here and

with this setup they say um to make

progress on this core challenge we

propose an analogy we can empirically

study today can we use a smaller less

capable model to supervise a larger more

capable model so you can see here we've

got traditional machine learning where

we have the supervisor looking at

student which is not as smart as them

but it isn't too vastly smarter then we

have super alignment which is um of

course you know where essentially the

human researcher is trying to supervise

a student that is way smarter than it

that's where you can see the robot

that's just a Above This human level you

can see here in this diagram and it's

like you know how on Earth is that

supposed to work what they're trying to

do is like look okay if we can get you

know a smaller robot a smaller AI system

to supervise a larger AI system that's

beneath human level hopefully we can

scale this progress and then when we get

to this level of super alignment

hopefully that thing kind of works and

essentially what they did was they did

this they said when we supervise GPT 4

with a gpt2 level model using this

method on NLP tasks the resulting model

typically performs Somewhere Between

gpt3 and GPT 3.5 and it says we were

able to recover much of GP gp4s

capabilities with only much weaker

supervision so it says this method is a

proof of concept with important

limitations for example it still doesn't

work on chat GPT preference data however

we also find Signs of Life with other

approaches such as optimal early

stopping and bootstrapping from small to

intermediate to large models so

essentially um this is just their first

paper on kind of thinking how on Earth

they could even you know try and solve

this but I do think that this is

something that is important now of

course this is the problem okay it says

for for one thing there is an ongoing

race to AI with multiple Mega

corporations participating and only a

small fraction of their compute and

labor is going towards alignment and

control research and one worry is that

they aren't taking this seriously enough

now basically you know the the slide

just before there if you saw what

opening I said uh I'm not sure on that

page somewhere opening eyes said that

20% of their overall compute is going to

Safety Research which does make sense

because guys if you haven't you know

heard of the elephant in the room the

elephant in the room is that essentially

if these uh super intelligent systems

don't work out um we all die and of

course you might be thinking how on

Earth do we all die I could play a clip

but essentially you just have to think

about it like this okay um you know how

ants right just you know walk around

they do their thing um imagine if an ant

created a human and then humans start

creating highways as a result of humans

creating highways uh we destroy ant

colonies because we need to remove their

environment in order to place down a

highway we need to place down homes and

we just see ants as a minor

inconvenience and because of that um of

course ants die in the process and some

people are speculating that this is

going to be the same with artificial in

elligence and we have no idea if this is

going to be true or not because the only

way to find out is to do it and if we do

it and we will die then I guess we're

never going to really know because we're

all dead so as horrible as that is the

point I'm trying to make here as well is

that all these companies are now placing

their chips on AGI because they've

realized that yo this is this next

technology whoever holds this key is

going to pretty much control um I think

a lot of the world's resources because

if you have an intelligent ASI system

and you just ask it you know how do we

become the most valuable company in the

world it's it's going to get it right

like I mean if it's smarter than us it's

going to get it right so however long

it's going to take um that's going to be

an interesting thing so meta's going all

in this is Mark Zuckerberg stating that

you know his company's just going all in

AI hey everyone today I'm bringing

meta's two AI research efforts closer

together to support our long-term goals

building general intelligence open-

sourcing it responsibly and making it

available and useful to everyone in all

of our daily lives it's become clearer

that the next generation of services

requires building full general

intelligence building the best AI

assistants AIS for creators AIS for

businesses and more that needs advances

in every area of AI from reasoning to

planning to coding to memory and other

cognitive abilities this technology is

so important and the opportunities are

so great that we should open source and

make it as widely available as we

responsibly can so that way everyone can

bet we're building an absolutely massive

amount of infrastructure um to support

this by the end of this year we're going

to have around 350,000

Nvidia h100s or around 600,000 h100

equivalents of compute if you include

other Jeep we're currently training

llama 3 and we've got an exciting road

map of of future models that we're going

to keep training responsibly so that

just shows you that all of these

companies are truly just pouring

billions of dollars into this and the

crazy thing is is that they're making

breakthroughs okay it's not just like

they're doing this just for fun these

guys are making breakthroughs you can

see that recently they made a technical

breakthrough this isn't meta by the way

this is a company private company called

Magic that could Ena enable active

reasoning capabilities similar to open

qstar model which was apparently a crazy

crazy breakthrough and this is why I

state that timelines are getting shorter

and shorter we have people stating you

know crazy crazy things you know and of

course this is once again brings us back

to the mullock problem which is

essentially if AGI is going to be any

year now and if of course you know

timelines are getting shorter because

whoever controls AGI is going to be able

to get to ASI shortly thereafter we have

this problem of you know Safety Research

being an issue and of course you know

some people even left open AI you know

and the people who who made anthropic

you know Dario amod who left open AI to

start anthropic because he wanted to

focus on safety they even recently you

know did a paper on sleeper agents I

might include a clip from the video

where I talked about that and why that

was really bad and why everyone missed

the mark on that and some people were

stting that oh you know Lal this is just

dumb um but essentially we do have a

problem on our hands because the

timelines every day seem to be getting

shorter and shorter whether it be an

open a employee whether it be you know a

company making a private breakthrough

that enables um you know active

reasoning I think it it's not smart to

underestimate the fact that AGI will be

used to get to ASI shortly thereafter

and this statement okay the fact that

you know whoever controls ASI will have

access to a powerful skills and ability

that will seem like magic to us um just

like modern tech would seem like magic

to medievals isn't to be underestimated

because if we like think about it like

this okay this is why super intelligence

is so crazy like if we go back to for

example you know when they just had

castles and you know the medieval times

or whatever if we just go back to that

time and if you know we ask them how

would you defeat this Army in the future

future okay let's say how would you

defeat this Army in the future they

would say oh we'd get our cannon balls

we'd get our bow and arrows and we'd be

able to defeat them but they wouldn't

because we'd have tanks and we'd have

planes and we have this advanced level

of technology that would just simply

destroy anything that they'd ever have

and that's a problem with artificial

superintelligence if you're trying to

think of something that is very hard to

conceptualize so um I mean all of the

current Tech that we do have like if you

saw an iPhone you brought it back 100

years it would seem like magic like if

you saw a drone it would look like magic

I mean it's pretty crazy okay um and we

do know that that is a 100 years ago

without artificial super intelligence so

you can imagine how crazy things are

going to look like I mean I genuinely

can't even imagine to believe what the

future is going to look like are we

going to be you know all IM Immortal and

I mean how is the timeline going to be I

think either one thing happens either it

comes either faster than we think or

later than we thinks I don't think it

comes on time because I do think there's

always certain factors that people

aren't thinking about and of course who

knows maybe we'll hit a wall maybe you

know AGI doesn't come later down the

line because we figure out that you know

there's some kind of war that we can't

get past and requ

more years of breakthroughs and you know

gb4 we're kind of stagnant at that for a

bit but um it will be interesting to see

where we do go and how these timelines

do evolve because um things are moving

rapidly and if you did enjoy this um

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