Gold: Wie weit geht der Absturz?

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the recent decline in gold prices, particularly after Donald Trump's election, and examines the factors contributing to this shift. Despite a strong rise in gold this year, with a 22-23% increase in USD and 28% in EUR, the gold price has seen a pullback. The speaker explores the influence of a stronger US dollar, rising US bond yields, and inflation fears. Additionally, they highlight the increasing investments in gold ETFs and offer advice on gold investments. The speaker remains optimistic about long-term gold prospects, especially due to inflation and global debt concerns.

Takeaways

• 😀 The gold market has experienced a significant decline since the election of Donald Trump, even surpassing initial predictions of the drop.
• 😀 Despite the decline, gold is still up by around 22-23% in USD and nearly 28% in EUR in 2025, indicating a strong performance for the year overall.
• 😀 Key support zones for gold are identified at around $2550-$2600, with further potential support below $2350, though the market is currently in a state of uncertainty.
• 😀 The strength of the US dollar, highlighted by an increase in the US Dollar Index, has negatively impacted gold prices, which tends to perform poorly when the dollar is strong.
• 😀 Rising bond yields, particularly on US 10-year treasury bonds, are also contributing to gold's weakness as rising interest rates offer a more attractive alternative to gold.
• 😀 Despite the short-term weakness, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to increasing national debt, inflation concerns, and other macroeconomic factors.
• 😀 The World Gold Council reports a notable increase in gold ETF inflows in North America and Asia, indicating strong investor interest in gold despite its high price.
• 😀 The uptick in gold ETF investments suggests that even with a high gold price, institutional investors are still viewing gold as a valuable asset for diversification and hedging against inflation.
• 😀 Inflation in the US is rising again, with consumer price inflation increasing from 2.3% to 2.6%, which may provide additional support for the gold market in the near future.
• 😀 The speaker remains confident about gold's long-term potential, with personal investment in gold amounting to around 20% of their portfolio, though they are waiting for a deeper correction before making additional purchases.

Q & A

Why has the price of gold dropped since Donald Trump's election?

The drop in gold prices is mainly due to a combination of a stronger US Dollar and increasing yields on US government bonds. The election of Donald Trump has contributed to these factors, creating an environment where gold, which does not offer interest or dividends, is less attractive compared to rising bond yields.

What are the main reasons for the current decline in gold prices?

The main reasons for the decline include a strong US Dollar, which has risen significantly since the election of Donald Trump, and higher yields on US government bonds, which make alternatives like bonds more attractive than gold. Additionally, concerns about inflation and government debt have also played a role.

How has the Dollar Index affected gold prices?

A rising Dollar Index signals a stronger US Dollar, which generally has a negative impact on gold prices. When the Dollar strengthens, it reduces the appeal of gold, which is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies and decreasing its demand.

What is the relationship between rising bond yields and the gold market?

When bond yields rise, investors are more likely to invest in government bonds, which offer a guaranteed return. Since gold does not provide such returns (like dividends or interest), it becomes less attractive in comparison. This leads to a decrease in demand for gold when yields rise.

Is the correction in the gold market temporary or long-term?

While the gold price has seen a correction, the long-term outlook remains positive. Factors like rising government debt, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks support gold as a hedge against economic instability. However, in the short term, gold might experience further fluctuations based on economic factors like interest rates and the strength of the dollar.

How have ETF inflows into gold changed recently?

Despite the strong performance of gold this year, there has been an increase in ETF inflows into gold, especially from North America and Asia. This indicates that investors still see value in gold, even at high price levels, as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset.

Why is there increasing interest in gold ETFs despite high gold prices?

The increasing interest in gold ETFs, even at high prices, can be attributed to ongoing concerns about inflation, government debt, and economic instability. Investors are using gold as a diversification tool and a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. Furthermore, ETFs provide an accessible way to invest in gold without the need for physical storage.

What factors are likely to support gold prices in the coming years?

Key factors supporting gold prices include the ongoing rise in government debt across the world, inflationary pressures, and the risk of currency devaluation. These factors are expected to continue driving demand for gold as a hedge against economic and financial instability.

What role does inflation play in the demand for gold?

Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, leading investors to seek alternative assets like gold to preserve value. As inflation rises, demand for gold typically increases as it is seen as a store of value that is not directly affected by inflationary pressures.

Should investors buy gold now, or wait for further price corrections?

If an investor already holds a significant amount of gold, it may be prudent to wait for further price corrections before buying more. However, for those looking to diversify their portfolios with gold, current levels might still provide a reasonable entry point, especially if they plan to hold for the long term. Timing the market perfectly is difficult, so consistent investments over time might be a good strategy.