The Singularity, Skynet, and the Future of Computing: Crash Course Computer Science #40

Summary

在这段视频脚本中，Carrie Anne带领观众回顾了计算机科学的整个系列，从基础的晶体管和逻辑门讲起，一直到计算机视觉、机器学习和机器人技术等高级主题。她强调了计算机科学的广泛应用，并希望激发观众对编程和计算机职业的兴趣。Carrie Anne提到了计算设备将无处不在的愿景，即普适计算，以及它可能带来的积极和消极影响。她还探讨了人工智能的未来，包括它对就业的影响、人类与技术的融合，以及可能的“奇点”现象。最后，她鼓励观众参与到这场技术变革中来，利用人类最伟大的发明——计算机科学，来改善世界。

Takeaways

• 🌟 计算机科学从基础的晶体管和逻辑门发展到计算机视觉、机器学习和机器人技术等领域，展现了其广泛的应用和话题。
• 📚 历史上的计算先驱，如巴贝奇、洛夫莱斯、霍勒里斯、图灵等，为现代计算机科学奠定了基础。
• 💡 计算机科学不仅仅是编程，它更像是21世纪的魔法，能够通过脚本和代码来创造伟大的东西。
• 🌐 普适计算（Ubiquitous Computing）的愿景是让计算机无处不在，从厨房电器到衣物，甚至是人体内。
• 🔍 马克·威瑟（Mark Weiser）认为，最深刻的技术是那些最终消失并融入日常生活的技术。
• 🚗 人工智能（AI）技术可能会增强现有设备，如汽车，而不仅仅是创造全新的产品类别。
• 🤖 人工智能是否超越人类智能是一个复杂的问题，因为“智能”本身就难以定义。
• 🧠 计算机的处理能力与小鼠相当，而人类的计算能力大约是现代计算机的10万倍。
• ⚙️ 技术奇点（singularity）是指人工智能的发展可能超过人类智能，引发技术爆炸性增长的概念。
• 📉 技术失业是一个现实问题，随着AI和机器人能够更高效地完成工作，许多行业的工人可能会变得多余。
• 🧞 未来主义者如雷·库兹韦尔认为，技术奇点将使我们超越生物身体和大脑的限制，极大地延长寿命并扩展思维能力。
• 🌟 计算机科学将继续发展，未来十年可能会出现虚拟现实、自动驾驶车辆、无人机、可穿戴计算机和服务机器人等技术主流化。

Q & A

计算机科学系列课程的最终集讨论了哪些主题？

最终集讨论了从晶体管和逻辑门到计算机视觉、机器学习、机器人技术以及更广泛的计算应用和主题的整个系列。

提到了哪些计算机科学领域的先驱者？

提到了巴贝奇、洛夫莱斯、霍勒里斯、图灵、埃克特、霍珀、萨瑟兰、恩格尔巴特、布什、伯纳斯-李、盖茨和沃兹尼亚克等先驱者。

为什么说计算机科学是21世纪的魔法？

因为知道如何使用和编程计算机就像是21世纪的魔法，它使用脚本和代码代替了咒语和魔法。

什么是普适计算的愿景？

普适计算的愿景是计算机将无处不在，不仅仅是我们今天看到的电脑，还包括嵌入到每一个可以想象到的物体内部。

Mark Weiser如何看待计算机的未来？

Mark Weiser认为计算机的未来应该是“隐形”的，即计算机将如此自然地融入我们的生活，以至于我们会不假思索地使用它们。

为什么说人工智能可能不会完全取代人类工作？

因为并非所有事物都需要或将是AI驱动的。例如，汽车可能由AI自动驾驶，但车门锁可能仍然由基本的if语句控制。

计算机的智能如何与人类智能相比较？

计算机在某些特定任务上表现出色，如驾驶汽车、识别歌曲、翻译语言和玩游戏，但在其他基本任务上，如上下楼梯、折叠衣物、在鸡尾酒会上理解语音和自我喂食等方面却失败了。

计算机的计算能力与老鼠相比如何？

根据视频中的描述，今天的计算机计算能力大致相当于一只老鼠的计算能力。

什么是“奇点”？

奇点是指技术进步和人类生活模式的变化速度如此之快，以至于看起来我们正在接近人类历史上的某个基本奇点，超过这个奇点，我们所知道的人事务将无法继续。

技术失业可能带来哪些影响？

技术失业可能导致大规模的工作岗位丧失，人们可能会失去工作，但另一方面，它也可能导致更高的生活水平，因为食物和产品将由计算机和机器人完成大部分艰苦工作。

计算机如何可能改变我们的身体？

计算机可能会通过脑机接口和可穿戴计算机等技术与我们的身体融合，增强我们的智力和生理机能。

计算机科学未来的发展方向可能包括哪些技术？

未来的发展方向可能包括虚拟现实、增强现实、自动驾驶车辆、无人机、可穿戴计算机、服务机器人、新的编程语言和范式、硬件创新以及个人计算机的创新。

Outlines

00:00

🌟 计算机科学的奇迹与未来

Carrie Anne 欢迎观众来到计算机科学速成课的最后一集。她回顾了整个系列，从基础的晶体管和逻辑门讲起，一直到计算机视觉、机器学习、机器人技术等领域。她提到了计算机科学领域的许多先驱，并希望这些课程能激发观众对计算机如何影响生活的兴趣，甚至可能选择编程或计算机科学作为职业。她强调了计算机科学不仅仅是魔法，而是21世纪的魔法，能够使用和编程计算机的人将能够创造伟大的东西。她还讨论了无处不在计算的愿景，以及Mark Weiser对计算机设计的看法，即最深刻的技术是那些消失的技术，它们融入日常生活的纹理中，直到与之不可区分。最后，她提出了关于人工智能未来的讨论，包括AI可能如何增强现有设备或开辟全新的产品类别，以及人工智能是否会超越人类智能的问题。

05:02

🚀 人工智能的兴起与人类未来

讨论了人工智能（AI）的兴起，包括它可能带来的技术失业问题，以及历史上类似情况的例子。提到了工作可以根据手动或认知、常规或非常规两个维度来分类，并指出常规手工工作已经被机器自动化。人们担心非常规手工工作和常规认知工作也可能被自动化。然而，非常规认知工作，如教师、艺术家、小说家、律师、医生和科学家等职业，可能暂时安全。这些工作占美国劳动力的40%，而60%的工作易受自动化影响。讨论了技术失业可能带来的灾难性后果与积极影响，以及如何管理短期经济混乱。此外，还提到了计算机可能如何改变我们的身体，包括Ray Kurzweil和Jaron Lanier对未来人类和技术融合的预测，以及超级智能计算机可能成为人类的守护者或敌人的不同观点。

10:05

🌌 计算机的宇宙探索与技术发展

Carrie Anne 展望了计算机可能超越人类寿命并探索宇宙的未来。她提到，计算机科学家正在努力推进我们在前四十集中讨论的所有主题，包括虚拟现实、增强现实、自动驾驶车辆、无人机、可穿戴计算机、服务机器人等技术的主流化。互联网将继续发展新服务、流媒体和连接人们的方式。新的编程语言和范式将被开发以促进新的、惊人的软件的创造。新的硬件将使复杂操作变得极其快速，如神经网络和3D图形。个人计算机也将迎来创新，可能会摆脱四十年的桌面隐喻，转而成为无所不在的终身虚拟助手。她还提到了系列中未讨论的许多主题，如加密货币、无线通信、3D打印、生物信息学和量子计算。最后，她鼓励观众通过学习计算机科学，参与到这一惊人的变革和挑战中来，利用人类最伟大的发明来使世界变得更好。

Keywords

💡Ubiquitous Computing

无处不在的计算是指计算机嵌入日常生活的每一个角落，成为我们日常环境中不可或缺的一部分。视频提到它可能无处不在，如厨房电器、墙壁、衣服，甚至我们的身体。该领域正在迅速发展，未来几十年可能会成为常态。

💡人工智能（AI）

人工智能是一种可以模仿人类智能的计算机技术。在视频中，人工智能被预测为未来计算的核心领域，将对日常生活产生巨大影响。虽然当前的 AI 技术已经能够完成某些复杂任务，但仍然存在局限性。未来的 AI 可能会在更多领域发挥作用，如自动驾驶和医疗诊断。

💡奇点

奇点是一个假设的时间点，指人工智能的智能和计算能力超越人类之后的状态。视频中引用了约翰·冯·诺伊曼的观点，描述了科技进步和人类生活的巨大变化可能预示着奇点的临近。奇点理论认为，在这一点之后，计算机将会超越人类，并带来不可预测的变化。

💡技术性失业

技术性失业是指由于计算机和自动化的普及导致大量工作岗位被替代的现象。视频中指出，历史上纺织工人、电话接线员等职位都曾因技术进步而消失。人工智能和机器人技术的进步，可能会使更多职业受到影响，导致更广泛的失业。

💡人机融合

人机融合指的是人类和技术之间的界限逐渐模糊，最终可能导致人类成为半机械化的存在。视频中提到，未来的脑机接口和可穿戴计算设备将使人类能够超越生物体的限制，实现新的智慧和身体能力。

💡复杂性制动

复杂性制动是微软联合创始人保罗·艾伦提出的概念，指随着技术复杂性的增加，进一步的技术进步将变得更加困难。视频中提到，尽管技术在过去几十年里迅速发展，但未来可能会出现技术进步放缓的趋势。

💡马克·韦瑟的隐形计算

马克·韦瑟提出的“隐形计算”概念主张计算机应该无处不在，并自然地融入到日常生活中，不引人注目。视频中引用了他的观点，认为最先进的科技将“消失”，与我们日常生活的面料融为一体，不再像现在这样成为干扰人们生活的焦点。

💡虚拟与增强现实

虚拟现实（VR）和增强现实（AR）是通过计算技术生成沉浸式虚拟环境或增强现实场景的技术。视频预测，未来十年中这两种技术将进入主流市场，为计算提供新颖的交互方式，广泛应用于娱乐、教育和医疗领域。

💡编程语言和范式

编程语言和范式是计算机科学家用来编写软件和解决问题的工具和方法。视频提到，未来将出现新的编程语言和范式，以应对新兴领域的软件开发需求，帮助创造出更先进的软件系统。

💡脑机接口

脑机接口是一种能够在大脑和计算机之间传递信息的技术。在视频中，它被描述为未来人类和技术融合的关键。随着这项技术的发展，可能实现更直接和有效的人机交互，为医疗康复和增强人类智能提供新的机会。

Highlights

从晶体管和逻辑门发展到计算机视觉、机器学习、机器人技术等领域

回顾了计算机科学的巨人，如巴贝奇、洛夫莱斯、霍勒里斯和图灵等

计算机科学不是魔法，但它确实是21世纪的巫术

通过脚本和代码使用和编程计算机

计算机将无所不在，存在于我们生活中的每一个角落和对象中

普适计算领域的愿景，计算机将融入生活的方方面面

人工智能的未来展望，以及它如何改变我们的设备和产品类别

讨论了人工智能是否会超越人类智能的问题

讨论了计算机和处理器的计算能力与小鼠大致相当

预计未来几十年内计算机的处理能力可能超过所有人类大脑的总和

技术失业的概念，以及自动化可能如何取代多个工作领域

讨论了技术进步可能对社会结构和经济产生的影响

探索了计算机如何可能改变我们的身体和生活方式

讨论了超智能AI作为人类监护者的可能性

计算机科学家正在努力推进的所有主题，未来可能见证的技术发展

Transcripts

Hi, I’m Carrie Anne, and welcome to Crash Course Computer Science!

We’re here: the final episode!

If you’ve watched the whole series, hopefully you’ve developed a newfound appreciation

for the incredible breadth of computing applications and topics.

It’s hard to believe we’ve worked up from mere transistors and logic gates, all the

way to computer vision, machine learning, robotics and beyond.

We’ve stood on the shoulders of giants like Babbage and Lovelace, Hollerith and Turing,

Eckert and Hopper, Sutherland and Engelbart, Bush and Berners Lee, Gates and the Woz, and

many other computing pioneers.

My biggest hope is that these episodes have inspired you to learn more about how these

subjects affect your life.

Maybe you’ll even pick up programming or choose a career in computing.

It’s awesome!

It’s also a skill of the future.

I said in the very first episode that computer science isn’t magic, but it sort of is!

Knowing how to use and program computers is sorcery of the 21st century.

Instead of incantations and spells, it’s scripts and code.

Those who know how to wield that tremendous power will be able to craft great things,

not just to improve their own lives, but also their communities and humanity at large.

Computing is also going to be literally everywhere – not just the computers we see today, sitting

on desks and countertops, and carried in pockets and bags – but inside every object imaginable.

Inside all your kitchen appliances, embedded in your walls, nanotagged in your food, woven

into your clothes, and floating around inside your body.

This is the vision of the field of Ubiquitous Computing.

In some ways, it’s already here, and in other ways, we’ve got many decades to go.

Some might view this eventuality as dystopian, with computers everywhere surveilling us and

competing for our attention.

But the late Mark Weiser, who articulated this idea in the 1990s, saw the potential

very differently:

“For [fifty] years, most interface design, and most computer design, has been headed

down the path of the "dramatic" machine.

Its highest idea is to make a computer so exciting, so wonderful, so interesting, that

we never want to be without it.

A less-traveled path I call the "invisible"; its highest idea is to make a computer so

imbedded, so fitting, so natural, that we use it without even thinking about it …

The most profound technologies are those that disappear.

They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it."

That doesn’t describe computing of today – where people sit for hours upon end in

front of computer monitors, and social media notifications interrupt us at dinner.

But, it could describe computing of the future, our final topic.

INTRO

When people think of computing in the future, they often jump right to Artificial Intelligence.

No doubt there will be tremendous strides made in AI in the coming years, but not everything

will be, or need to be, AI-powered.

Your car might have an AI to self-drive, but the door locks might continue to be powered

by what are essentially if-statements.

AI technology is just as likely to enhance existing devices, like cars, as it is to open

up entirely new product categories.

The exact same thing happened with the advent of electrical power – lightbulbs replaced candles.

But electrification also led to the creation of hundreds of new electrically-powered gadgets.

And of course, we still have candles today.

It’s most likely that AI will be yet another tool that computer scientists can draw upon

to tackle problems.

What really gets people thinking, and sometimes sweating, is whether Artificial Intelligence

will surpass human intelligence.

This is a really tricky question for a multitude of reasons, including most immediately:

“what is intelligence?”

On one hand, we have computers that can drive cars, recognize songs with only a few seconds of audio,

translate dozens of languages, and totally dominate at games like chess, Jeopardy, and Go.

That sounds pretty smart!

But on the other hand, computers fail at some basic tasks, like walking up steps, folding

laundry, understanding speech at a cocktail party, and feeding themselves.

We’re a long way from Artificial Intelligence that’s as general purpose and capable as a human.

With intelligence being somewhat hard to quantify, people prefer to characterize computers and

creatures by their processing power instead, but that’s a pretty computing-centric view of intelligence.

Nonetheless, if we do this exercise, plotting computers and processors we’ve talked about

in this series, we find that computing today has very roughly equivalence in calculating

power to that of a mouse...

which, to be fair, also can’t fold laundry, although that would be super cute!

Human calculating power is up here, another 10 to the 5, or 100,000 times more powerful

than computers today.

That sounds like a big gap, but with the rate of change in computing technologies, we might

meet that point in as early as a decade, even though processor speeds are no longer following

Moore’s Law, like we discussed in Episode 17.

If this trend continues, computers would have more processing power, slash intelligence,

than the sum total of all human brains combined before the end of this century.

And this could snowball as such systems need less human input, with an artificial superintelligence

designing and training new versions of itself.

This runaway technological growth, especially with respect to an intelligence explosion,

is called the singularity.

The term was first used by our old friend from Episode 10, John von Neumann, who said:

"The accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, give the

appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human

affairs, as we know them, could not continue."

And Von Neumann suggested this back in the 1950s, when computers were trillions of times

slower than they are today.

Sixty years later, though, the singularity is still just a possibility on the horizon.

Some experts believe this progress is going to level off, and be more of an S curve than

an exponential one, where as complexity increases, it becomes more difficult to make additional progress.

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen calls it a “complexity brake”.

But, as a thought experiment, let’s just say that superintelligent computers will emerge.

What that would mean for humanity is a hotly debated topic.

There are people who eagerly await it, and those who are already working to stop it from happening.

Probably the most immediate effect would be technological unemployment, where workers

in many job sectors are rendered obsolete by computers – like AIs and Robots – that

can do their work better and for less pay.

Although computers are new, this effect is not.

Remember Jacquard's Loom from Episode 10?

That automated the task of skilled textile workers back in the 1800s, which led to riots.

Also, back then, most of the population of the US and Europe were farmers.

That’s dropped to under 5% today, due to advances like synthetic fertilizers and tractors.

More modern examples include telephone switchboard operators being replaced with automatic switchboards

in 1960, and robotic arms replacing human painters in car factories in the 1980s.

And the list goes on and on.

On one hand, these were jobs lost to automation.

And on the other hand, clothes, food, bicycles, toys, and a myriad of other products are all

plentiful today because they can be cheaply produced thanks to computing.

But, experts argue that AI, robots and computing technologies in general, are going to be even

more disruptive than these historical examples.

Jobs, at a very high level, can be summarized along two dimensions.

First, jobs can be either more manual – like assembling toys – or more cognitive – like

picking stocks.

These jobs can also be routine – the same tasks over and over again – or non-routine

– where tasks vary and workers need to problem solve and be creative.

We already know that routine-manual jobs can be automated by machines.

It has already happened for some jobs and is happening right now for others.

What’s getting people worried is that non-routine manual jobs, like cooks, waiters and security

guards, may get automated too.

And the same goes for routine cognitive work, like customer service agents, cashiers, bank

tellers, and office assistants.

That leaves us with just one quadrant that might be safe, at least for a little while:

non-routine cognitive work, which includes professions like teachers and artists, novelists

and lawyers, and doctors and scientists.

These types of jobs encompass roughly 40% of the US workforce.

That leaves 60% of jobs vulnerable to automation.

People argue that technological unemployment at this scale would be unprecedented and catastrophic,

with most people losing their jobs.

Others argue that this will be great, freeing people from less interesting jobs to pursue

better ones, all while enjoying a higher standard of living with the bounty of food and products

that will result from computers and robots doing most of the hard work.

No one really knows how this is going to shake out, but if history is any guide, it’ll

probably be ok in the long run.

Afterall, no one is advocating that 90% of people go back to farming and weaving textiles

by hand.

The tough question, which politicians are now discussing, is how to handle hopefully-short-term

economic disruption, for millions of people that might be suddenly out of a job.

Beyond the workplace, computers are also very likely to change our bodies.

For example, futurist Ray Kurzweil believes that “The Singularity will allow us to transcend

[the] limitations of our biological bodies and brains.

We will gain power over our fates.

... We will be able to live as long as we want.

We will fully understand human thinking and will vastly extend and expand its reach.”

Transhumanists see this happening in the form of cyborgs, where humans and technology merge,

enhancing our intellect and physiology.

There are already brain computer interfaces in use today.

And wearable computers, like Google Glass and Microsoft Hololens, are starting to blur

the line too.

There are also people who foresee "Digital Ascension", which, in the words of Jaron Lanier,

“would involve people dying in the flesh and being uploaded into a computer and remaining conscious".

This transition from biological to digital beings might end up being our next evolutionary step...

and a new level of abstraction.

Others predict humans staying largely human, but with superintelligent computers as a benevolent

force, emerging as a caretaker for humanity – running all the farms, curing diseases,

directing robots to pick-up trash, building new homes and many other functions.

This would allow us to simply enjoy our time on this lovely pale blue dot.

Still others view AI with more suspicion – why would a superintelligent AI waste its time

taking care of us?

It’s not like we’ve taken on the role of being the benevolent caretaker of ants.

So maybe this play out like so many Sci-Fi movies where we’re at war with computers,

our own creation having turned on us.

It’s impossible to know what the future holds, but it’s great that this discussion

and debate is already happening, so as these technologies emerge, we can plan and react intelligently.

What’s much more likely, regardless of whether you see computers as future friend or foe,

is that they will outlive humanity.

Many futurists and science fiction writers have speculated that computers will head out

into space and colonize the galaxy, ambivalent to time scales, radiation, and all that other

stuff that makes long-distance space travel difficult for us humans.

And when the sun is burned up and the Earth is space dust, maybe our technological children

will be hard at work exploring every nook and cranny of the universe, hopefully in honor

of their parents’ tradition to build knowledge,improve the state of the universe, and to boldly go

where no one has gone before!

In the meantime, computers have a long way to go, and computer scientists are hard at

work advancing all of the topics we talked about over the past forty episodes.

In the next decade or so, we’ll likely see technologies like virtual and augmented reality,

self-driving vehicles, drones, wearable computers, and service robots go mainstream.

The internet will continue to evolve new services, stream new media, and connect people in different ways.

New programming languages and paradigms will be developed to facilitate the creation of

new and amazing software.

And new hardware will make complex operations blazingly fast, like neural networks and 3D graphics.

Personal computers are also ripe for innovation, perhaps shedding their forty-year old desktop

metaphor and being reborn as omnipresent and lifelong virtual assistants.

And there’s so much we didn’t get to talk about in this series, like cryptocurrencies,

wireless communication, 3D printing, bioinformatics, and quantum computing.

We’re in a golden age of computing and there’s so much going on, it’s impossible to summarize.

But most importantly, you can be a part of this amazing transformation and challenge,

by learning about computing, and taking what’s arguably humanity’s greatest invention,

to make the world a better place.

Thanks for watching.