Алибек Куантыров о проблеме переполненности школ и о возможной безработице

Summary

This discussion addresses key aspects of population growth, educational planning, and labor market forecasts. With a baby boom resulting in 400,000-450,000 births annually, the government is focused on building new schools and ensuring job opportunities for future generations. There are plans to construct 800 new schools by 2025, with additional growth in major cities. Internal migration trends are affecting population distribution, and while challenges exist, low unemployment rates (under 5%) indicate a strong labor market. The issue of students studying abroad is also discussed, with many returning after gaining international experience, contributing to the economy's growth.

Takeaways

• 😀 The government is actively planning for future workforce needs by considering the population growth, particularly the rise in births (400,000 to 450,000 children annually).
• 😀 The focus is on creating a balance between population growth and economic development, ensuring jobs, education, and basic services are available.
• 😀 There is an ongoing 'baby boom' that will impact the economy in the coming decade, with a need to adapt to a growing population.
• 😀 Countries like Turkey and those in Southeast Asia have shown that population growth can be linked to economic potential, and Kazakhstan is aiming to achieve similar results.
• 😀 The government is focused on expanding education infrastructure, aiming to build 800 new schools by 2025, with a potential increase to 1,000 schools after the president's latest address.
• 😀 New schools not only meet educational needs but also create additional jobs in construction, education, and related sectors.
• 😀 There is an evident population distribution imbalance, with southern and western regions growing faster than the northern and eastern areas, prompting a redistribution of resources.
• 😀 There is an increasing need for modular schools due to shortages in school capacity, highlighting the rapid growth of student numbers in urban areas like Nur-Sultan and Almaty.
• 😀 The ability to accurately forecast population and school needs is complicated by various factors such as migration, socio-economic trends, and traditional family structures.
• 😀 Although migration to larger cities is ongoing, there is a focus on ensuring local development and economic sustainability, as internal migration also impacts workforce and education planning.
• 😀 Despite some concerns about job availability for future students, the government is striving to maintain low unemployment (below 5%) and improve job prospects through economic planning and development.

Q & A

What demographic trend is mentioned in the transcript and how does it impact future planning?

The transcript mentions a 'baby boom' occurring, where between 400,000 and 450,000 children are born annually. This trend impacts future planning by increasing the demand for educational facilities, job creation, and social services in the coming years.

What is the government’s role in managing the challenges posed by increasing birth rates?

The government’s role is to manage the social aspects of this demographic trend by creating job opportunities, ensuring access to education, and providing social benefits. This is part of a broader economic strategy aimed at fostering sustainable growth.

How does the issue of school shortages relate to the growing population?

As the population grows, there is an increased demand for schools. The transcript highlights the urgent need for faster construction of modular schools to accommodate the rising number of students, as traditional infrastructure cannot keep up with the growth.

Why is it difficult to accurately predict the future demand for schools?

Predicting future school demand is difficult due to factors such as migration patterns, social influences, and family structures, particularly in regions where larger families are more common. These elements make population growth unpredictable and hard to forecast.

What are the government's specific plans for building new schools?

The government plans to build 800 new schools by 2025 as part of its national development plan. Following a presidential address, the target has been increased to 1,000 schools, and construction efforts are already underway to meet this goal.

What regional disparities are noted in the transcript regarding population growth?

The transcript mentions regional disparities, with southern and western regions, as well as major cities like Almaty and Nur-Sultan, seeing population growth, while northern and eastern areas are experiencing a decline. This requires adjustments in labor and resource distribution across regions.

How does internal migration affect the distribution of educational resources?

Internal migration, especially to major cities, contributes to uneven population distribution, placing additional strain on schools in those urban areas. The government must account for this in planning to ensure schools are built where they are most needed.

How does the economic model mentioned in the transcript address employment opportunities for future generations?

The economic model focuses on creating conditions for economic growth by increasing production capacity, adding value to products, and ensuring that the workforce is equipped for these opportunities. This will provide the foundation for creating jobs for future generations.

What is the expected impact of the current educational system on future employment levels?

The transcript emphasizes that while a certain level of unemployment will always exist in a market economy, proper planning and the development of key sectors will create job opportunities. If the government continues to plan effectively, future school graduates will be able to find work.

What role does migration play in the employment landscape for future graduates?

Migration plays a significant role in shaping the employment landscape. Many families send their children abroad for education and work, which impacts the local job market. However, some return home, bringing valuable experience and skills that contribute to the local economy.