Roughly each 1000 tons of Carbon Emissions Today Kills One Future Person: a Billion Deaths at 2C

Summary

In this video, Paul Beckwith discusses the alarming connection between CO2 emissions and future deaths due to climate change. He explains that burning 1,000 tons of CO2 today will result in one premature death in the future, highlighting that a trillion tons of emissions could cause a billion deaths. Beckwith emphasizes the importance of visualizing CO2 emissions and their impact, using examples like New York City's emissions dwarfing the Empire State Building. He urges for immediate action in reducing carbon emissions through renewable energy, carbon taxes, and improved energy efficiency to mitigate climate-related mass deaths.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Global warming, primarily driven by CO2 emissions, is projected to cause massive future deaths, with an estimate that for every 1,000 tons of CO2 emitted today, one future premature death will occur.
• 📉 A trillion tons of emissions are expected to raise global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius, potentially causing about a billion deaths.
• 🚌 One ton of CO2 is visualized as a 10-meter diameter sphere or a large block. For instance, New York City emits enough CO2 in a day to fill 149,903 such spheres, dwarfing the Empire State Building.
• 🔥 CO2 emissions primarily come from wealthier individuals and nations, but the resulting deaths disproportionately affect poorer populations.
• ⏳ The 2 degrees Celsius temperature increase, previously projected by 2100, may occur much sooner due to accelerating climate feedback loops.
• 🛑 There are suggestions to combat climate change, including improving energy efficiency, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, and implementing carbon taxes instead of fossil fuel subsidies.
• ⚠️ Climate change is being linked to involuntary manslaughter, with current policies leading to preventable future deaths.
• 📚 A recent paper synthesized 180 scientific articles, leading to the '1,000-ton rule,' which quantifies CO2 emissions in terms of human casualties.
• 🧮 The paper suggests that corporations should be assessed on whether their operations cause more deaths than they employ, a framework that could lead to industries like coal being shut down.
• 💡 The ultimate takeaway is the need for urgent global action to prevent millions of future deaths by radically accelerating the transition to a zero-fossil-fuel economy.

Q & A

What is the '1000 ton rule' in relation to CO2 emissions?

The '1000 ton rule' suggests that for every 1000 tons of CO2 emissions, one future premature death is caused. This is based on estimates linking carbon emissions to climate change-related deaths.

How much CO2 is necessary to raise global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius?

According to the video, a trillion tons of CO2 emissions are estimated to raise global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius, which could lead to around a billion deaths.

Why are the consequences of CO2 emissions difficult for most people to grasp?

CO2 is an invisible gas, and concepts like megatons of emissions or average temperature increases are not intuitive for most people. These abstract measurements often don't translate into a clear understanding of their impacts, unlike something more tangible like body count.

How do CO2 emissions from New York City visually compare to everyday objects?

The CO2 emissions from New York City in one day, visualized as 10-meter diameter spheres, would completely dwarf the Empire State Building. A single day produces over 149,000 spheres, while one hour of emissions amounts to over 6,200 spheres.

What is a 'milli-life,' and how is it related to CO2 emissions?

A 'milli-life' is a measure of intrinsic value equivalent to one-thousandth of a human life. It is used to quantify the impact of CO2 emissions, where one ton of CO2 could be said to take away one-thousandth of a life in the future.

What are some of the mitigation strategies suggested to combat climate change?

The suggested mitigation strategies include improving energy conservation and efficiency, replacing high-carbon fuels with renewable energy sources, creating resilient power networks, and implementing carbon capture and storage technologies.

What industries are highlighted as major contributors to CO2 emissions?

The coal industry is particularly highlighted, with the video mentioning that the number of future deaths caused by coal-related air pollution exceeds the number of jobs in the industry. This raises questions about the industry's continued operation.

How does climate change affect human mortality according to the video?

Climate change is expected to cause a significant number of premature deaths, with an estimate of one billion deaths if global temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius. These deaths will disproportionately affect poorer populations.

How is the carbon footprint of an individual building visualized?

CO2 emissions from municipal buildings can be visualized as carbon 'canyons,' where the amount of CO2 is represented as cubes towering above the buildings. These cubes correspond to the volume of CO2 each building emits.

What ethical argument is made regarding corporations and their impact on climate change?

The video argues that corporations should only be allowed to exist if they do not infringe on the right to life. If a corporation's CO2 emissions cause more future deaths than the number of employees it has, it should not be allowed to operate.