2024-25 ND winter outlook: La Niña favors below normal temperatures

Summary

Meteorologist Jacob Morris reports a significant shift in winter weather patterns due to a developing La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. Unlike last winter’s mild temperatures and below-average snowfall, this season is expected to bring colder conditions, especially in the second half, along with more snow. La Niña typically causes a blocking high-pressure system that alters the jet stream, bringing cold air and more consistent snow events to the northern U.S. Confidence in a colder, snowier winter is high, with the potential for above-normal precipitation as well.

Takeaways

• 🌡️ Last winter was mild with above-average temperatures and less snow than usual.
• 🌊 A significant change is happening in the Pacific, with La Niña developing near the equator.
• 🌬️ Stronger trade winds are pushing warmer water westward, allowing cooler water to emerge near South America.
• ❄️ La Niña's influence on the jet stream could result in a colder-than-normal winter in the northern regions.
• 📉 Last winter, driven by a strong El Niño, was the fourth warmest on record, with only one major Arctic blast.
• 🌨️ Bismarck received only 31 inches of snow last winter, well below the normal 50 inches.
• 🧊 This winter is expected to be much colder due to La Niña, with below-normal temperatures likely.
• 📅 The colder temperatures are expected to stick around for the second half of winter into spring.
• 💧 La Niña typically brings near-normal to above-normal precipitation, favoring snow over mixed precipitation.
• 🌀 The strength of La Niña will influence winter conditions, with a 40% chance of reaching a moderate phase, historically linked to colder, snowier winters.

Q & A

What was the general weather pattern last winter?

Last winter was relatively mild, with above-average temperatures and less snow than normal.

What major climate event is influencing this winter's forecast?

A developing La Niña in the Pacific Ocean near the equator is influencing this winter's forecast.

How is the developing La Niña expected to affect temperatures in the Northern Plains?

The developing La Niña could lead to a colder-than-normal winter in the Northern Plains.

What role did El Niño play in last winter's weather?

Last winter, a strong El Niño played a significant role, resulting in warmer temperatures and only one major Arctic blast.

How did snowfall last winter compare to the average in Bismarck?

Bismarck received about 31 inches of snow last winter, compared to the normal 50 inches.

How is La Niña expected to influence precipitation this winter?

La Niña typically favors near-normal to above-normal precipitation, which could lead to more snow this winter compared to last year's mixed precipitation events.

What is the likelihood of La Niña reaching moderate strength, and what impact would that have?

There is a 40% chance that La Niña will reach moderate strength, which has historically favored colder and snowier winters in four out of six previous cases.

What weather pattern is expected during the transition from fall to winter?

The transition from fall to winter with La Niña can be abrupt, with warmer fall weather followed by colder-than-normal temperatures in the winter.

What is the expected impact on temperatures during the second half of winter?

Confidence is higher that colder temperatures will persist in the second half of winter and into spring.

What other factors could influence winter weather this year?

Other factors, such as storm tracks and warming in the upper atmosphere over the North Pole, could influence winter weather and drive more cold air into the region.