I'm Back Buying Hims & Hers Stock AGAIN!

JKR - Investing
9 Sept 202416:06

Summary

TLDRThe speaker discusses their decision to reinvest in Hims & Hers stock after a recent dip, having first bought the stock in October 2023 at $6. Despite a temporary drop, the company continues to show strong financial performance, including significant revenue and subscriber growth. The video highlights the company's focus on telehealth, expanding markets, and its impressive profitability trajectory. The speaker believes the stock presents a long-term investment opportunity with potential for high returns, and shares their optimism about the company’s future, citing its ability to consistently exceed expectations.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The user is back to buying Hims & Hers stock, which they first purchased in October 2023 when it was $6.
  • 📉 Recently, the stock has fallen, presenting a potential buying opportunity as the user sees higher return potential now.
  • 🤓 The user runs numbers and finds bigger potential returns compared to a year or two ago, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance.
  • 📊 The company has consistently delivered impressive earnings, with a 51% year-over-year revenue growth and a 43% increase in subscribers.
  • 🌟 The user highlights the company's successful performance and potential for future growth, despite recent stock price volatility.
  • 📉 The stock has fallen nearly by half since June, but the user believes this is due to short-term investors rather than any fundamental issues.
  • 🏥 Hims & Hers focuses on telehealth, offering personalized and affordable healthcare, especially appealing to younger generations.
  • 🧴 The company has recently launched a successful weight loss product, adding to its diverse healthcare offerings.
  • 💰 Financially, the company is strong with high gross margins, profitability, and a solid cash balance, enabling share buybacks.
  • 📈 The user sees long-term potential in the stock, expecting significant returns and considering it a potential major position in their portfolio.

Q & A

  • What is the focus of the YouTuber's video?

    -The YouTuber focuses on providing an update on Hims & Hers stock, discussing why it has recently dipped, analyzing the company's financial performance, and sharing predictions for the stock's growth over the next five years.

  • When did the YouTuber last buy Hims & Hers stock, and what was its price at that time?

    -The YouTuber last bought Hims & Hers stock in October 2023, when it was priced at $6.

  • What has caused the recent dip in Hims & Hers stock price?

    -The YouTuber believes that the recent dip is caused by short-term investors and hype around the GLP-1 weight loss injections, as well as Wall Street speculation, rather than any fundamental issues with the company.

  • What financial performance highlights does the YouTuber mention for Hims & Hers?

    -The company achieved a 51% year-over-year revenue growth, a 43% increase in subscribers, and consistently beats earnings expectations, which the YouTuber describes as strong financial performance.

  • How does the YouTuber describe Hims & Hers' earnings results over the past two years?

    -The YouTuber notes that Hims & Hers has consistently delivered '10 out of 10' earnings results, with strong revenue growth and frequent earnings beats, despite occasional drops in stock price following these reports.

  • What industries does Hims & Hers operate in?

    -Hims & Hers operates in various industries, including dermatology, mental health, and weight loss, all of which are multibillion-dollar markets with growth potential.

  • What recent development in the weight loss market has impacted Hims & Hers stock?

    -Hims & Hers recently launched a weight loss program targeting $100 million in revenue, which it achieved much faster than expected. However, news about the end of a GLP-1 drug shortage led to a drop in stock price.

  • How does the YouTuber view Hims & Hers' long-term potential?

    -The YouTuber views Hims & Hers as a strong long-term investment, with the potential for significant growth over the next few years. They believe the company could become more profitable and continue to expand its presence in large markets.

  • What valuation multiples does the YouTuber use to estimate the potential return of Hims & Hers stock?

    -The YouTuber uses different multiples for conservative, moderate, and optimistic estimates, ranging from 20x to 60x earnings. They believe that, under optimistic scenarios, Hims & Hers stock could deliver a nearly 10x return.

  • What is the YouTuber's plan for their Hims & Hers investment moving forward?

    -The YouTuber plans to increase their position in Hims & Hers, even considering it as a potential largest holding in their portfolio. They view the stock as a winner and intend to keep backing it.

Outlines

00:00

💼 Back to Investing in Hims and Hers

The video starts with the creator discussing their return to buying shares of Hims and Hers, a stock they initially invested in when it was valued at $6 in October 2023. The stock has since performed well, but after a recent dip, the creator believes the company now has even more growth potential than previously thought. The video promises to provide an updated analysis of the stock, explaining why it has dipped and what the future holds for the company over the next five years.

05:01

📊 Key Performance and Growth Potential of Hims and Hers

The creator reflects on the early days of investing in Hims and Hers, noting the stock's initial lack of coverage but its steady rise in popularity, particularly among YouTube stock market channels. They mention how the company consistently beat earnings expectations, though the stock faced challenges during the 2022 bear market. Despite the recent dip from $22 to nearly half its value, the creator believes the stock’s fundamentals are strong, and this is an opportune moment for long-term investors to buy more shares.

10:01

🚀 Financial Success and Impressive Growth Metrics

The financial performance of Hims and Hers is highlighted, focusing on the company’s ability to exceed expectations in terms of revenue and subscriber growth. The company reported a 51% year-over-year revenue increase and a 43% rise in subscribers. The video emphasizes that the management team consistently sets conservative targets and then outperforms them. The company’s growing profitability, high gross margins, and strong cash flow indicate that it’s well-positioned for continued success in the telehealth space.

15:03

📱 Why Telehealth is a Game Changer

Telehealth is presented as a major growth sector, especially popular with younger generations who value easy access and personalized healthcare. Hims and Hers offers affordable healthcare solutions, making it convenient for people to consult with doctors via their phones. The company operates in billion-dollar markets like dermatology, mental health, and weight loss, and its rapid growth in new categories, like weight loss, demonstrates its ability to expand quickly and capture market share in emerging sectors.

📈 Strong Financial Indicators and Profitability

Hims and Hers' robust financial performance is underscored by significant growth in subscribers, revenue, and profitability. The video delves into the company's 41% subscriber growth, 50% revenue growth, and impressive 75% gross margins. The company’s strategy to consistently deliver strong financial results with low customer churn rates has allowed it to generate increasing amounts of free cash flow, and its healthy cash reserves position it well for future growth initiatives, including share buybacks.

🔍 GLP-1 Hype and Market Volatility

The video addresses the recent volatility in Hims and Hers’ stock, largely driven by hype surrounding GLP-1 injections, a weight loss product that temporarily boosted the stock price. However, the shortage of the product may soon end, which has caused the stock to fall back. Despite this, the creator believes that the hype around GLP-1 was never meant to be a long-term revenue driver and argues that the company’s fundamentals, which showed a 44% year-over-year growth even without this product, remain strong.

💡 Conservative Numbers, Big Upside Potential

The creator runs through updated financial projections for Hims and Hers, noting that even conservative estimates suggest strong future growth. The company is expected to grow its revenue at 25% annually and could achieve profit margins of 12%. The video highlights the potential for the stock to deliver significant returns, with the possibility of becoming a '10-bagger' (10x return). Despite these ambitious numbers, the creator emphasizes that their projections are conservative, meaning there could be even more upside.

🌟 Why I’m Buying More Shares of Hims and Hers

In this final section, the creator reaffirms their confidence in Hims and Hers as a long-term investment. Despite having taken profits earlier, they are now buying more shares, seeing it as a prime opportunity to increase their position. The stock, already their second-largest holding, could soon become their largest due to its strong performance and growth potential. The creator urges viewers to subscribe to the channel for more updates and insights into their investment strategy.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Hims and Hers

Hims and Hers is a telehealth company offering personalized healthcare products and services. The video discusses how the company has grown from being a $4 stock to almost $16, showcasing its financial success and potential for future growth. It highlights the business model's focus on accessibility and affordability in healthcare, including categories like dermatology and mental health.

💡Telehealth

Telehealth refers to the provision of healthcare services through digital communication platforms, allowing patients to consult doctors without visiting a clinic. In the video, Hims and Hers is portrayed as a leader in telehealth, especially catering to younger generations who prefer convenient and remote access to medical services via their phones.

💡Revenue Growth

Revenue growth represents the increase in a company's sales over time. Hims and Hers is reported to have an impressive year-over-year revenue growth of 51%. This concept is central to the video as the speaker emphasizes the company's continued financial performance and its ability to exceed expectations in revenue generation.

💡Profit Margins

Profit margins refer to the percentage of revenue that remains after all expenses are paid. In the context of Hims and Hers, the company is expected to achieve up to 30% adjusted EBITDA margins, a significant indicator of its profitability. The video stresses how the company's strong financials are driving long-term investment potential.

💡GLP-1 Injections

GLP-1 injections are a weight loss treatment that suppresses appetite, helping users lose weight. The video explains that this new product caused a surge in Hims and Hers’ stock due to its popularity but later caused volatility as the hype subsided. It only makes up 4% of the company's revenue, but the market’s short-term focus on it impacted the stock price.

💡Stock Market Volatility

Stock market volatility refers to the frequent fluctuations in stock prices due to market speculation, investor behavior, or economic factors. The speaker notes how Hims and Hers experienced a significant drop in stock value, nearly 50% in a short time, despite its strong fundamentals. This illustrates how external market forces can temporarily impact stock prices.

💡Earnings Beat

An earnings beat occurs when a company reports higher-than-expected profits or revenue. Hims and Hers has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, which is highlighted in the video as a key factor for long-term investors. The speaker mentions multiple '10 out of 10 earnings' performances, showcasing the company's ability to outperform forecasts.

💡Founder-Led Company

A founder-led company is a business where the original founder is still actively involved in its management. In the case of Hims and Hers, the founder, Andrew Dunham, holds an 8% stake in the company and is praised for his leadership. The speaker views his continued involvement as a positive indicator for the company's future success.

💡Share Buybacks

Share buybacks refer to a company repurchasing its own shares from the market, often to reduce the number of outstanding shares and increase the value of remaining shares. The video mentions that Hims and Hers has a share buyback program, indicating the company's strong financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

💡Market Multiple

Market multiple refers to the valuation of a company relative to its earnings or revenue. In the video, the speaker estimates a market multiple of 20x earnings for Hims and Hers, which he believes is conservative. He argues that given the company's performance, it could be valued at 40x to 60x earnings, suggesting significant upside potential for investors.

Highlights

The user is back buying Hims & Hers stock for the first time since October 2023, when the stock was priced at $6.

The stock has been a good performer, with significant returns for the user and viewers of the YouTube channel.

Despite a recent dip in stock price, the user believes the long-term return potential is even higher than before.

The stock had surged 300% at one point, and although the user sold some shares during this peak, they see another buying opportunity now.

Hims & Hers continues to beat earnings expectations, with revenue growth of 51% year-over-year and subscriber growth up 43%.

The company’s financial performance has consistently exceeded projections, with strong profitability and improved metrics.

The stock has fallen nearly 50% since June 2024, despite no significant issues within the business, which the user attributes to short-term market dynamics.

The user sees this decline as a chance to buy shares at a good value, especially for long-term investors.

Hims & Hers' focus on telehealth services, personalized healthcare, and affordable access continues to drive its success, especially among younger generations.

New product categories like weight loss have shown strong performance, reaching $100 million in revenue within half a year.

The company’s gross margins are 75%, contributing to strong profitability, with long-term adjusted EBITDA margins projected to be between 20-30%.

Hims & Hers is forecasted to generate nearly $108 million in free cash flow by the end of 2024, with no debt and a cash balance of $227 million.

Ownership remains strong, with the founder still holding 8% of the company, and the user expresses confidence in the leadership.

The user attributes the recent stock dip to hype surrounding GLP-1 injections for weight loss, but emphasizes that this only makes up 4% of the company’s revenue.

The user anticipates strong long-term growth, projecting a potential 600-1000% return over the next five years, driven by sustained revenue growth and profitability.

Transcripts

play00:05

so yes you did read the video title

play00:07

correctly I am back buying HS and hair

play00:10

stock the first time I bought hims and

play00:12

hairs since October 2023 when the stock

play00:16

was only $6 and obviously since then

play00:19

it's been a very good performer for us

play00:21

for me the YouTube channel some of you

play00:23

guys as well I now own the stock but

play00:25

recently the stock has had a bit of a

play00:26

fall and I have rerun the numbers and

play00:29

I'm actually seeing even bigger numbers

play00:31

now for the return than where I saw them

play00:34

a year ago two years ago H which is kind

play00:36

of crazy to think about and um today I

play00:38

thought i' just give you an updated

play00:40

where the stock is at why the stock is

play00:41

having a dip and also some numbers that

play00:43

I think the stock could do in the next

play00:45

kind of five years and obviously you

play00:47

know it's uh crazy now because obviously

play00:49

him and hairs was uh only really

play00:51

mentioned on this YouTube channel like

play00:53

we are kind of like the OG hims and

play00:55

hairs Channel and uh now whenever I go

play00:57

on YouTube I see just so many of the

play00:59

stocks kind of talking about stock

play01:00

market channels talk about him and hers

play01:02

and uh obviously you know to think about

play01:04

you know back two years ago like there

play01:05

was nobody talking about this stock on

play01:07

the YouTube channel I think I was

play01:08

probably the first person to cover it on

play01:09

the YouTube channel and now uh obviously

play01:11

there's a lot more people interested but

play01:13

yeah it's a good opportunity again so uh

play01:15

we're going to go through it today hope

play01:16

you enjoy it hit that like button let's

play01:17

get started now if you do want to see

play01:19

when I do buy any him and her shares

play01:21

I'll sell them obviously we've sold some

play01:23

as well previously while the stock was

play01:24

running up for like 300% return then the

play01:27

play be is on the patreon you get to

play01:28

know what I'm buying and selling in real

play01:29

time time only5 and you also get two

play01:31

exclusive videos a week on there and

play01:33

also if you do want to buy some him hair

play01:35

shares join the link for trading to him

play01:37

too that's personally the investing

play01:38

platform that I use and the obviously

play01:40

the investing platform I buy my hims and

play01:41

hair shares in anyway I was looking on

play01:44

YouTube the other day and we see here

play01:46

that I've got a lot of coverage on him

play01:48

and hairs but this video from two years

play01:50

ago and I said hims and hairs is a fall

play01:53

this fall dollar stock is on fire and I

play01:55

actually watched a bit of it and what

play01:56

made me laugh about it is that this is

play01:58

when obviously the uh when this stock

play02:00

actually started bringing out Mega

play02:01

earnings and the St you remember when

play02:03

that time when the stock brought them 10

play02:05

out of 10 earnings and you can even see

play02:06

it right now on the screen like the

play02:08

stock popped up 20% and then it used to

play02:10

just give it all back and end up

play02:11

negative on the day I don't know if any

play02:13

of you guys used to remember those days

play02:14

when them 10 out of 10 earnings came out

play02:17

and then the stock used to absolutely

play02:18

collapse it was a it was a really

play02:20

frustrating time obviously there was the

play02:22

kind of 2022 bare market and we are out

play02:25

of that now but it just shows you

play02:26

doesn't it you know sometimes the stock

play02:28

market only a year ago two years ago

play02:30

goes oh this Stock's a $4 stock and then

play02:32

obviously from there it's you know from

play02:34

$4 it's it's ended up being a $16 $16

play02:37

stock nearly a five bagger but look at

play02:39

the stock I mean it's still performing

play02:41

quite well you know the stock is still

play02:42

up 41% year today but rarely since uh

play02:46

July time which isn't even really that

play02:48

long ago the stocks Fallen uh quite a

play02:51

bit and since J June time uh the stock

play02:54

was actually a $22 stock it's actually

play02:55

Fallen uh nearly by half and you're

play02:58

thinking that's quite a dramatic fall in

play03:00

a quite a short period of time you know

play03:02

to to lose nearly half your market cap

play03:04

half your value you would think there's

play03:05

something significantly going wrong with

play03:07

the business and for me there isn't I

play03:09

think maybe a few people have just got a

play03:11

bit caught up in the hype people are

play03:13

trying to make quick money people a lot

play03:15

of Wall Street they're trying to guess

play03:17

where the Stock's going to be in two

play03:18

three years time uh two three months

play03:20

time are kind of jumping on the bang

play03:21

wagon and I think really if you're a

play03:23

long-term investor like you know if

play03:24

you've been holding it for the last kind

play03:26

of couple years I think this is maybe

play03:28

another opportunity to go get some

play03:30

shares at some good value and uh that's

play03:32

what we're going to talk about today now

play03:34

financially the comp the company has

play03:35

absolutely smashed it the last earnings

play03:37

um actually this isn't even the last

play03:39

earnings this is qy1 earnings I'm a

play03:41

little bit behind there and but if we go

play03:43

on the last earnings if we can find them

play03:44

very quickly for you they were actually

play03:46

amazing we had another Mega um EPS beat

play03:49

as you can see here Revenue growth of

play03:51

51% year-over-year which is very

play03:53

impressive subscribers up 43% and once

play03:56

again we have a major upgrade on the

play03:58

guidance you know it was a beat they

play04:00

just keep beating and beating numbers

play04:02

and this is the great thing that we've

play04:03

had from him and hers is they just carry

play04:04

on beating numbers the management team

play04:06

sets out low well not low numbers

play04:09

they're already quite impressive numbers

play04:10

but they consistently sandbag and then

play04:13

overd deliver which is an amazing thing

play04:15

to be o owning as well and uh what we're

play04:17

seeing as well inside all the companies

play04:19

metrics is the metrics are just getting

play04:21

better and better and better the

play04:22

profitability ramp it up and now we're

play04:24

talking about coming at 66 times

play04:25

earnings I tell you guys you know a 51%

play04:28

year-over-year growth company at 66

play04:30

times earnings is H obviously quite

play04:32

attractive but as well as that it's

play04:34

going to very quickly grow into that

play04:37

that valuation you know the big thing

play04:39

about stock market investing is all

play04:40

about being future thinking you know

play04:42

you're looking at three four years am I

play04:43

going to get am I right now getting a

play04:45

cheap company for what they'll be doing

play04:46

in three or four years and I think that

play04:48

is the case for him and hers especially

play04:50

with the the numbers they're doing but

play04:51

let's just go back to basics you know

play04:53

what does the company do well it's a T

play04:55

Health Service so T Health is a key

play04:58

obviously there was a big boom Jo 2021

play05:00

but it's only continued and especially

play05:02

with the younger generation because what

play05:04

they want is more personalized Health

play05:06

they want to also get access easy access

play05:09

to the platform so people don't want to

play05:11

travel to the doctors nowadays they

play05:12

don't want to go into the place where

play05:15

the people are coughing everywhere and

play05:17

you got to travel to it and then you got

play05:19

to wait around people just want to log

play05:21

on on the phone easy access get your

play05:23

subscription nice and easy if you want

play05:24

to see a doctor just put it on your

play05:26

phone you can carry on doing jobs around

play05:27

your house you don't have to travel and

play05:29

get that easy access and the other thing

play05:30

is Affordable people want cheaper

play05:32

Healthcare especially in the US and

play05:33

that's what him and hers is able to

play05:35

provide to a lot of their subscribers

play05:38

and if you look at some of the markets

play05:39

to do lot of the mark markets have uh

play05:41

like sh Dermatology Mental Health weight

play05:44

loss which are big major uh categories

play05:46

you know these are multibillion

play05:48

categories that they have here and

play05:49

there's potential for them to carry on

play05:50

expanding into these categories one of

play05:52

the new ones that recently launched is

play05:54

the weight loss uh this was a new

play05:55

category they launched this year and uh

play05:57

was the Target to get to 100 million

play05:59

revenue and uh it's already there in

play06:03

this time frame you know this was

play06:04

supposed to take a year to get there and

play06:05

they've done it within like half a year

play06:07

which has been very impressive and

play06:09

obviously when you're only taking even

play06:10

if you only take a percentage of a

play06:12

multi-billion industry that's how your

play06:14

company can still be a very big company

play06:17

um in when you're having these big

play06:19

Market spaces like a a health industry

play06:21

for example and when you look at the

play06:22

numbers they've executed to Perfection

play06:24

subscriber growth is up 41% Revenue

play06:27

growth is up this is for the key one

play06:29

numbers by the way and we' just seeing

play06:31

that we're actually growing 50% in the

play06:32

last quarter uh 46% in the last quarter

play06:35

8.4 Just DE with imin which if you look

play06:37

at the improvement from last quarter is

play06:39

very good 90% of reoccurring Revenue as

play06:41

well lovely having a SAS business you

play06:43

know SAS businesses normally trade at

play06:45

premium as well gross margins 75% that's

play06:48

why they're able to make so much

play06:49

profitability and under a oneyear

play06:51

payback and if you look at the growth I

play06:53

mean look at the growth here the

play06:54

quarterly Revenue growth has been very

play06:56

impressive just nice staircase upwards

play06:58

very high gross margins for those

play07:00

profitability and if you look at the

play07:02

adjusted EV point of view look at the

play07:03

ramp up since we obviously we talked

play07:06

about the video from when we were

play07:08

talking about whenn as a $4 stock look

play07:10

at the profitability that's just been

play07:12

ramping up and they just see more and

play07:14

more Improvement you know you look at

play07:15

the longer term Outlook of this year

play07:17

they've hiked that up and you know at

play07:19

the start of the Year analysts were

play07:21

expecting this coming to grow like 20%

play07:22

and at some point this growth will slow

play07:24

down but even now it's just absolutely

play07:26

insane and the thing is you know look at

play07:28

these the guidance here it's the

play07:30

guidance they're doing for the next

play07:31

quarter is just so much higher than the

play07:32

full year guidance it's going to get

play07:33

hiked up even more this year and AD

play07:35

justed even margin as well you know you

play07:37

look at that and you look at the

play07:38

long-term guidance you know long-term

play07:39

guidance is 20 30% adjusted even the

play07:42

margins and if you look what they're

play07:43

doing right now which is our forecast to

play07:45

do around about 10% at the moment you

play07:47

know that is H where the profitability

play07:49

is going to come through there's going

play07:50

to be very high profit margins and they

play07:52

still think from here they can uh you

play07:54

know double and even triple the adjusted

play07:56

even margin so there's going to be good

play07:58

amounts of profitability coming off this

play07:59

business um if we look at the past

play08:01

performance and the future performance

play08:03

you can see the execution here just look

play08:05

at that Revenue growth just look at the

play08:06

profit growth look at the free cash flow

play08:08

that's ruming up on the business by the

play08:09

end of the year you know what we like

play08:11

five months away we're going to be

play08:12

talking about C that's nearly doing 108

play08:14

million 109 million in free cash flow

play08:16

obviously that's very good and that

play08:18

should just continue and because

play08:19

obviously they're throwing off that

play08:20

profitability here we're going to have a

play08:22

nice profitable business that puts a lot

play08:24

of that cash onto the balance sheet and

play08:26

they've got no debt cash balance wise

play08:28

they sit on a really healthy cash

play08:29

balance of 227 million that's why

play08:31

they're able to do things like share

play08:32

BuyBacks that they currently have going

play08:34

on right now and ownership wise a few

play08:36

people criticized the owner Andrew

play08:38

Dunham I think he's done a Absolut

play08:39

fabulous job here this company is

play08:41

something like seven years old eight

play08:43

years old and you look at what he's

play08:44

doing he's absolutely amazing he still

play08:46

owns 8% of the business and it's a

play08:48

Founder Le company and uh hopefully that

play08:50

continues say everything here is looking

play08:52

very positive so what are the like

play08:54

negatives why is the share price you

play08:56

know down nearly 40 50% there must be

play08:58

something in there and I kind of hinted

play09:00

it at the start but I think there's a

play09:02

few people that are getting in here for

play09:04

short term rather than long term and

play09:06

that's what's being causing the pain at

play09:08

the moment and a lot of that volatility

play09:09

comes around this the uh glp1 injections

play09:13

so if you don't know there was a a new

play09:16

weight loss product launched which was a

play09:18

glp1 injection basically you go get this

play09:20

injection and it makes you not feel as

play09:23

hungry and uh what that ends up doing is

play09:26

you would don't end end up eating as

play09:28

much and uh it's not like the normal

play09:31

kind of weight loss programs where you

play09:32

have to actually do some sort of

play09:34

exercise um and it's getting very

play09:35

popular because the people can have

play09:37

these injections it's proven that it

play09:39

helps people lose weight as far as we're

play09:41

mostly aware it's a safe product and

play09:43

we've seen a lot of celebrities at the

play09:44

moment a lot of celebrities have come

play09:45

out to there you know the reason why

play09:47

I've lost a lot of weight is because of

play09:48

these injections and um you know a lot

play09:50

of this is produced by a company like

play09:53

Eli Lily for example and uh what

play09:56

happened is because the products were so

play09:57

popular what Eli Lily had to do is

play09:59

actually let other companies make this

play10:01

weight loss product which obviously him

play10:03

and hair started doing now what has

play10:05

happened recently is they've come out

play10:06

and said we think that the drug shortage

play10:09

is at an end very soon and for a company

play10:11

like K and hairs that have had access to

play10:13

it people got excited you can basically

play10:15

see where the announcement came out and

play10:17

the stock actually rallied up huge for

play10:18

it a lot of people that are short-term

play10:20

thinking went oh this is going to be

play10:22

major for him in his and got carried

play10:24

away with it and now we've seen that the

play10:26

you know the potential shortage is going

play10:28

to come to an end quite quickly if all

play10:31

them people that jumped in the hype are

play10:32

jumping back out again and I think what

play10:34

has happened is the stock has actually

play10:36

gone that low that it's actually quite

play10:38

attractive valuations if you now a

play10:39

long-term investor a lot of people you

play10:41

know people panic when the stock goes

play10:42

down there'll be some people that jumped

play10:44

in here and actually sold it for you

play10:46

know quite a big loss and I think that

play10:49

that's actually created an opportunity

play10:50

because what people are ignoring is

play10:52

they've got caught on this glp hype

play10:53

they're not looking at the the

play10:54

fundamentals of the business that are

play10:56

just improving and improving ahead of

play10:58

expectations and what frustrates

play11:00

frustrates me a little bit as well with

play11:02

the G glp1 side of it is that you know

play11:04

people maybe got carried away with this

play11:07

we always knew this wasn't going to be a

play11:09

long-term Revenue driver for the hims

play11:11

and hairs business so it's not something

play11:14

that should have been considered and as

play11:15

well as that when you look at the recent

play11:16

earnings for hims and hers the company

play11:18

still grew 44% year-over-year without

play11:21

this glp W in the latest quarter and the

play11:23

glp one only makes up like 4% of the

play11:25

revenue growth of this business so even

play11:28

if that was to disappear of the business

play11:29

the business is still having fantastic

play11:31

numbers without this here and I think

play11:33

that just so many people got caught up

play11:35

in the short term that people forgetting

play11:37

how good of a company this could be in

play11:38

the long term and just to show that

play11:40

let's have a look at some numbers now I

play11:42

actually think the numbers are even

play11:43

higher than where we were when I last

play11:45

did this video so when I last did the

play11:47

hims and hers numbers in 2013 the

play11:49

numbers are are actually that higher now

play11:52

than what I was expecting that the

play11:54

upside is probably even higher than when

play11:55

I did it in

play11:56

2023 now I put Revenue growth of 18 22

play11:59

25% in now this company is still growing

play12:02

40 plus% a year so I'm assuming a big

play12:05

slow down in the revenue here so the

play12:06

numbers that I'm even putting in are

play12:08

quite sandbagged at the moment on a

play12:11

profit margin point of view I've put 5 8

play12:13

12% now I think they can easily obious

play12:15

we saw 20 30% adjusted EV margins I

play12:17

would expect them to get to 10% profit

play12:19

margins either now the only number

play12:21

that's above a 10% profit margin is the

play12:23

high side so I've even been conservative

play12:25

on the profit margin I put 20 times

play12:27

earnings in which once again I think if

play12:29

you're coming and doing these numbers

play12:30

there's no way you're going to be

play12:31

trading at 20 times earnings but I went

play12:33

with the market multiple we'll we'll up

play12:35

that in a second now on the low side

play12:37

yeah I mean if they did these numbers

play12:38

I'd be so um disappointed with them but

play12:41

you're only down 10% which isn't

play12:43

terrible midside 100% upside which is

play12:46

what we look for when we buy a stock in

play12:48

my opinion that's what I invest for is

play12:50

100% return in the next 5 years and we

play12:52

are getting that on the midside on and

play12:54

on the high side we're getting some nice

play12:56

upside there now like I said I think

play12:58

these numbers were a bit conservative so

play13:00

I think the company can realistically

play13:01

grow at 25% in the next 5 years on a

play13:03

kaga basis obviously you know I think

play13:06

the first couple of years will be at

play13:07

least 30 plus% Revenue growth by the

play13:10

time we get towards maybe the back end

play13:12

of the next five years that might be

play13:13

getting towards the lower 20% growth so

play13:15

I think 25% on will be a good kind of

play13:18

guess I think I'm going to stick with

play13:20

that 12% profit margins I think they are

play13:22

definitely achievable in the business

play13:24

I'm not going to change that at all now

play13:25

on a multiple I think the company will

play13:28

obviously do if they're doing these

play13:30

numbers for me it's not a 20 times

play13:31

earnings business um I think it's going

play13:34

to be higher now let's start off with

play13:35

the 40 times earnings you've got nearly

play13:38

a 600% return on the stock but I

play13:40

realistically think you know you're at

play13:42

least going to be talking this company

play13:43

trades at like 60 times earnings on

play13:45

these numbers and you're getting nearly

play13:47

a 10 bagger right now on those numbers

play13:50

now there's a lot of assuming that the

play13:53

numbers go to Perfection and that's

play13:55

obviously not always the case with

play13:56

investing but realistically I do think

play13:59

will be on this higher side and like I

play14:01

said on the very bullish case I think we

play14:03

could be staring at hims and hers 10

play14:05

bagger here and even if I didn't have a

play14:07

position I'd be buying obviously I've

play14:09

still got a position but I'm willing to

play14:11

average up here because I think the

play14:13

upside is still looking very attractive

play14:15

and if anything why would I would why

play14:16

would I not want to buy more of this

play14:18

winner you know what's the old saying

play14:20

you know water the flowers trim the

play14:22

weeds don't be yeah don't be trimming

play14:24

the flowers and watering the weeds in

play14:25

your portfolio if you've got a winner in

play14:27

your portfolio you know keep back in it

play14:29

and I look at him and hers and it's

play14:30

probably the stock in my portfolio

play14:32

that's executed to the Perfection the

play14:34

most every single quarter I look look at

play14:37

them I just think it's even better than

play14:38

what I expected it's another 10 out of

play14:40

10 earnings the EPS is just higher than

play14:42

what was expected the revenue was higher

play14:43

than expected they hike up the guidance

play14:45

again they've got an amazing balance

play14:47

sheet you know you think about the the

play14:48

you know we talk about the profit that

play14:49

potentially could be throwing off in

play14:51

five years time 500 million they could

play14:53

be throwing that into dividend or share

play14:54

BuyBacks the opportunity here is just

play14:57

you know enormous and I think just you

play14:59

know why not buy more so i' over the

play15:01

last kind of year I've took quite a bit

play15:02

of profit off the table because I've

play15:04

been up on this position you know quite

play15:06

an attractive amount at times and the

play15:08

the position is still a big position

play15:09

it's my second largest position still

play15:11

but I have took profit off the table and

play15:12

I think now now is the time where I put

play15:14

some of that back into the business and

play15:16

you know it's my second largest position

play15:18

but realistically can I see him ton as

play15:20

come in my largest position yeah I think

play15:22

so you know I think that the what I look

play15:24

at here the number wise it looks very

play15:26

attractive and uh I will continue to buy

play15:28

more so yeah I am making a video today

play15:31

saying that I am back buying him and

play15:33

hers shares for the first time since

play15:35

October

play15:37

2023 and um thought I'd make you guys

play15:40

aware of that uh hope you enjoyed the

play15:41

video if you could hit the like button

play15:43

if you're new around here or you've been

play15:44

long turn watch if you know make sure

play15:46

you subscribe we're very close to the

play15:48

16,000 subscribers so if you can get me

play15:50

there that'll be absolutely amazing

play15:51

apart from that I'll see you in a bit

play15:54

[Music]

Rate This

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

Related Tags
Stock AnalysisInvestingHealthcareHims & HersMarket TrendsFinancial GrowthYouTube ChannelEarnings ReportInvestor InsightsStock Market