David E. Sanger - “New Cold Wars” with Russia & China | The Daily Show

Summary

In a candid discussion, David Sanger explores the United States' misguided assumptions post-Soviet Union fall, particularly regarding Russia and China’s integration into the Western world. The conversation highlights historical overconfidence in diplomatic strategies, leading to unforeseen challenges like Russia's actions in Ukraine and the complexities of global power shifts. Sanger discusses the evolution of figures like Yevgeny Prigozhin from a chef to a significant political player, illustrating broader themes of unexpected shifts and the West's failures to anticipate geopolitical realities.

Takeaways

• 📘 The book discusses the false assumptions made by the US regarding Russia and China's integration into the Western world post-Soviet Union.
• 🌍 The narrative explores how these assumptions led to missteps in foreign policy, particularly with regards to handling Russia's actions in Ukraine and Putin's intentions.
• 🏛️ Highlighted is a critique of US intelligence and foreign policy, suggesting a mix of bad intelligence and wishful thinking led to underestimating Putin.
• 📉 The discussion points out the ineffectiveness of initial sanctions against Russia, questioning if harsher sanctions could have deterred Putin's later aggressions.
• 🔍 The book delves into China's strategic moves under Xi Jinping, contradicting earlier US intelligence assessments that did not foresee aggressive actions.
• 🌐 It also touches on global economic interdependencies, notably in the context of China and the US, influencing and complicating international relations.
• 🤔 The conversation addresses the moral contradictions in US foreign policy, especially regarding the support of authoritarian regimes versus promoting democracy.
• 💡 A point is made about the inevitability of great powers acting in their own economic interests, which often contradict their publicly stated principles.
• 🚀 The discussion includes a futuristic perspective, suggesting that the new cold wars with Russia and China will shape global politics for decades.
• 🎭 It finally reflects on the personal and professional experiences of those involved in US foreign policy, illustrating the complex and often contradictory nature of global diplomacy.

Q & A

What is the fundamental argument of the book discussed by David and Jon Stewart regarding post-Soviet Union international relations?

The fundamental argument of the book is that the United States and its allies mistakenly believed that countries like China and Russia would willingly integrate into a Western-centric, rules-based, democratic order. This assumption led to numerous policy decisions that didn't account for the actual ambitions and political cultures of those nations.

What are some examples of false assumptions the U.S. made about Russia and China after the Soviet Union's fall?

Examples of false assumptions include the belief that both countries would adopt Western democratic values and integrate smoothly into the global order led by the U.S. These assumptions overlooked the distinct strategic and national interests of China and Russia, which later manifested in actions contrary to U.S. expectations, such as military aggressions and political maneuvers.

How did the U.S. approach to terrorism influence its relationship with Russia under President George Bush?

Under President George Bush, the U.S. tried to align with Russia against terrorism, believing it could create a strong partnership through shared opposition to terrorism. This included personal diplomacy between Bush and Putin. However, the relationship soured as it became clear that Putin used the pretext of fighting terrorism to pursue aggressive actions in Chechnya, revealing a misalignment of intentions.

What role did Putin’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 play in changing Western perceptions of Russia?

Putin's speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference was a turning point where he criticized the global influence of the United States and expressed desires to restore territories he considered historically Russian. This speech signaled a clear departure from earlier cooperative tones and was a wake-up call to the West about Putin’s actual geopolitical ambitions.

What were the geopolitical consequences of the Nord Stream 2 agreement signed by Angela Merkel?

The Nord Stream 2 agreement, by establishing a direct pipeline from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine, significantly affected geopolitical dynamics. It reduced Ukraine's role and revenue from transit fees and raised concerns about Europe's increasing dependency on Russian energy, thereby impacting European energy security and political leverage against Russia.

What did the U.S. intelligence reveal just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

Just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, U.S. intelligence revealed detailed plans of the impending military actions, leading to urgent diplomatic efforts to prevent the invasion. Despite these revelations, many European leaders remained skeptical of the invasion likelihood, underestimating Putin's resolve and the intelligence's accuracy.

How did the concept of 'the end of history' as described by Francis Fukuyama relate to U.S. foreign policy?

Francis Fukuyama's concept of 'the end of history' posited that Western liberal democracy represented the final form of government. This theory influenced U.S. foreign policy by underpinning the belief that after the Cold War, ideological competition was over, and liberal democracy had triumphed, a belief that led to certain complacencies in dealing with non-Western powers.

What was the impact of Prigozhin’s transformation from Putin’s chef to a leader of a mercenary army on global politics?

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s transformation from a chef to a leader of a mercenary army and his involvement in disinformation campaigns significantly impacted global politics by highlighting the unconventional and hybrid tactics Russia used to extend its influence and disrupt Western democracies, notably affecting perceptions and interactions in international politics.

What strategic error did the U.S. make in its handling of relations with China according to the discussion between David and Jon Stewart?

The strategic error made by the U.S. in handling relations with China was underestimating China's ambitions and capabilities. Early intelligence assessments wrongly assumed that Xi Jinping would prioritize economic development without challenging Western dominance, leading to a miscalculation of China's strategic moves in areas like the South China Sea and technology.

How does Jon Stewart critique the U.S. foreign policy approach as discussed in the interview?

Jon Stewart critiques U.S. foreign policy for being hypocritical and overly idealistic, arguing that it often disguises economic and strategic interests as a fight for democracy and human rights. He points out that U.S. actions sometimes contradict its stated principles, which can undermine its credibility on the international stage.