改了統計方式後中國青年失業率再次大漲，這屆年輕人太難了！就業率正式進入官員考核KPI。｜小翠時政財經 [20240926#597]

小翠時政財經

27 Sept 202413:12

Summary

TLDRThis video discusses China's youth unemployment issue, highlighting a peak of 21.3% in June last year followed by a data suspension. The new statistics, starting from December, showed a reduced rate of 14.9%. As of August this year, the rate rose to 18.8%. The video explores the service industry's dominance in youth employment and compares China's situation with global rates, including the US. It also addresses the challenges faced by graduates, the shrinking job market, and the potential societal implications if improvements aren't made.

Takeaways

📈 In June of the previous year, China's youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 reached a historical high of 21.3%, leading to a temporary suspension of the data's publication.
🔄 In December of the same year, the National Bureau of Statistics resumed publishing the youth unemployment rate, reporting a revised figure of 14.9% after updating their statistical methods.
📉 By August of this year, the youth unemployment rate had risen to 18.8%, marking the highest level since the new statistical method was implemented.
🌍 Compared to global levels, China's youth unemployment rate is notably higher, with the U.S. youth unemployment rate at 9.7%, which is considered a normal level around twice the adult unemployment rate.
💼 The service industry is a significant employer of China's youth, with 61% of employed young people working in this sector, which is also where the PMI employment index aligns closely with the youth unemployment rate.
📉 The service industry employment index showed a low point in August, coinciding with the peak in youth unemployment rates, indicating a downturn in the sector.
🏢 Major industries that traditionally absorb a large number of university graduates, such as real estate, finance, education, and IT, have been reducing their workforce in recent years.
📉 In the banking sector, 22 out of 31 listed banks in China have reduced their staff, with the largest reduction seen in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, laying off over 10,000 employees in half a year.
🧑‍💼 Young employees are overrepresented in layoffs, reflecting the challenges faced by the younger workforce in a tough economic climate.
🎓 The number of university graduates has reached a record high, exacerbating the competition for limited job opportunities and increasing the intensity of examinations for public sector positions.
⚠️ The script suggests that if the economic environment does not improve, China may face social issues similar to those in South Korea, such as low birth rates and high suicide rates, if action is not taken to create more jobs and improve conditions for the youth.

Q & A

中国的青年失业率在2023年6月达到了多少？
-2023年6月份，16-24岁的中国青年失业率达到了21.3%的历史最高值。[^1^]
为什么中国在2023年7月停止公布青年失业率数据？
-中国在2023年7月停止公布青年失业率数据是为了完善统计方法，国家统计局对分年龄组失业率统计进行了调整，以更精准地反映进入社会的青年的就业失业情况。[^1^]
中国青年失业率的统计方法在2023年12月有哪些调整？
-2023年12月，中国青年失业率的统计方法调整包括：1) 发布不包括在校学生的16—24岁劳动力失业率；2) 增加发布不包括在校学生的25—29岁劳动力失业率。[^1^]
中国青年就业主要集中在哪些行业？
-中国青年就业主要集中在服务业，据人口普查数据，服务业就业人口近3.6亿，占总就业人口的48%，而青年就业人员从事服务业的比例最高，达到61%。[^3^]
全球青年失业率的情况如何？
-全球青年失业率在2023年有所改善，但仍然有6500万年轻人失业，青年失业率目前仍高达13%。[^3^]
中国的青年失业率在全球主要国家中处于什么水平？
-中国的青年失业率相对较高，2024年8月的数据为18.8%，远超美国同期的9.7%，也高于欧元区的14.2%。[^5^]
中国青年失业率在2024年8月相比之前有何变化？
-2024年8月中国的青年失业率为18.8%，相比2023年12月的14.9%有所上升。[^5^]
中国青年失业率的统计是否符合国际标准？
-中国的青年失业率统计方法科学规范，符合国际惯例，数据具有国际可比性。[^12^]
中国青年失业率的统计是如何进行的？
-中国青年失业率的统计是通过劳动力调查获得的，采用派调查员入户访问的方式，使用手持电子终端（PDA）现场采集数据。[^12^]
中国青年失业率的统计数据是否包括在校学生？
-不包括。从2023年12月起，中国国家统计局发布的青年失业率不包括在校学生。[^1^]

Outlines

00:00

📊 China's Youth Unemployment Rate

This paragraph discusses the issue of youth unemployment in China, highlighting the historical high of 21.3% in June of the previous year within the 16-24 age group. It mentions the subsequent halt in data publication by the National Bureau of Statistics and the revised statistical method that led to a lower reported rate of 14.9% in December. The narrative continues with the rate rising again to 18.8% in August of the current year, suggesting a 3.9% increase over the first eight months. The speaker expresses curiosity about the industries where Chinese youth are primarily employed and questions the accuracy of the unemployment rate by considering economic data. A comparison is made with the United States, where the youth unemployment rate is lower and considered normal. The focus then shifts to the service industry, which employs the majority of Chinese youth, and the correlation between the service industry PMI employment index and the youth unemployment rate. The paragraph concludes with a mention of Surfshark VPN as a tool for economic savings and internet security.

05:00

📉 Unemployment Trends and Economic Challenges

The second paragraph delves into the unusual rise in China's youth unemployment rate in August, surpassing the typical peak in July due to graduation season. This anomaly suggests a worsening economic environment with increased company closures and layoffs. The paragraph details job market challenges, with a focus on the service sector, particularly the餐饮业, which saw a significant drop in its performance index. It also discusses the employment situation in industries traditionally吸纳大学毕业生, such as real estate, finance, education, and IT, noting裁员 trends in these sectors. The paragraph emphasizes the vulnerability of young workers due to their limited experience and adaptability to the workplace culture. It contrasts the employment challenges faced by young people with the resilience of middle-aged workers who are more likely to accept加班 and迅速 find new jobs due to family responsibilities. The paragraph ends with a discussion on the record number of graduates and the intense competition for civil service positions, drawing a parallel with South Korea's economic situation.

10:02

🌐 Global Economic Parallels and Youth Aspirations

The final paragraph draws parallels between China's current economic situation and that of South Korea, noting the dominance of a few large corporations in job creation and the challenges faced by young people in finding stable employment. It discusses the high-risk investment behaviors, such as cryptocurrency trading, that young people are turning to due to limited opportunities. The paragraph raises concerns about the potential decline in birth rates and increase in suicide rates if the situation is not addressed. It calls for government action to improve the economic environment, support private enterprises, and create more jobs to reduce youth unemployment. The speaker encourages young people to consider studying abroad as a way to change their circumstances, emphasizing the importance of hope and opportunity. The paragraph concludes with a thank you to Surfshark for sponsoring the program.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Youth Unemployment Rate

The youth unemployment rate refers to the percentage of individuals aged 16-24 who are unemployed within the labor force. In the context of the video script, this rate in China reached a historical high of 21.3% in June of the previous year. The video discusses the implications of this statistic, including its impact on young people entering the workforce and the subsequent changes in the statistical methodology that led to a revised rate of 14.9% in December of the same year. The script also compares China's youth unemployment rate with that of the United States, which stood at 9.7% in August of the same year [^1^].

💡Statistical Methodology

Statistical methodology pertains to the procedures and processes used for the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of statistical data. The script mentions that the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced a pause in publishing the youth unemployment rate in the following month after it reached a historical high. When the data was resumed in December, the bureau claimed to have updated its outdated statistical methods, leading to a more accurate reflection of the current rates [^1^].

💡Service Industry

The service industry encompasses a wide range of businesses that provide services rather than tangible goods, such as finance, education, healthcare, and hospitality. The video script reveals that the service industry is a significant employer of young people in China, with 61% of employed youth working in this sector according to the census data. The script also suggests a correlation between the service industry's PMI employment index and the youth unemployment rate, indicating a synchronized trend [^1^].

💡Economic Data Matching

Economic data matching is the process of comparing different sets of economic data to verify their accuracy or to identify trends and correlations. The script discusses the presenter's curiosity about the accuracy of the youth unemployment rate by comparing it with other economic data, such as the performance of the service industry, to check for any discrepancies or 'padding' in the statistics [^1^].

💡Graduation Season

Graduation season typically refers to the period when students complete their academic programs and enter the job market. The script notes that the youth unemployment rate usually peaks in July due to the influx of graduates. However, the trend changed in the year discussed, with the rate in August being higher than in July, suggesting a worse economic environment and fewer job opportunities [^1^].

💡Job Cuts

Job cuts refer to the reduction of the workforce by a company or industry. The script mentions job cuts in various sectors, including banking and education, as a contributing factor to the high youth unemployment rate. It highlights that job cuts disproportionately affect young people who may lack工作经验 and be more easily replaced [^1^].

💡Census Data

Census data is collected from the official counting of a population, typically conducted by a national government. The script references census data indicating that the service industry employs a large portion of the Chinese population, especially young people, with 61% of employed youth working in this sector [^1^].

💡Labor Market

The labor market consists of all individuals who are willing and able to work and are actively seeking employment. The script discusses the labor market's role in youth unemployment, noting that a downturn in the economy can lead to a shrinking of job opportunities and increased unemployment rates among young people [^1^].

💡Economic Downturn

An economic downturn refers to a decline in economic activity, often characterized by falling business productivity, reduced consumer spending, and job losses. The script connects an economic downturn with the high youth unemployment rate, suggesting that when the economy is not performing well, it can lead to fewer job opportunities and higher unemployment, especially among young people [^1^].

💡Job Security

Job security indicates the likelihood of continued employment and the absence of unnecessary job loss. The script points out that young people are at a higher risk of job loss during economic downturns, as they often lack extensive work experience and may be more easily replaced by employers seeking cost-saving measures [^1^].

Highlights

Last June, the unemployment rate for Chinese youth aged 16-24 hit a historical high of 21.3%.

China's National Bureau of Statistics temporarily stopped publishing youth unemployment data after the record high.

In December, the bureau resumed publishing youth unemployment data with a revised and claimed more accurate method, reporting a rate of 14.9%.

By August of this year, the youth unemployment rate reached 18.8%, the highest since the new statistical method was introduced.

The youth unemployment rate increased by 3.9% in the first eight months of this year.

A comparison of global youth unemployment rates shows China's rate is notably higher than other major countries.

In the U.S., the youth unemployment rate is around 9.7%, which is considered a normal level relative to the overall unemployment rate.

The youth unemployment rate in China is more than three times the national average, indicating a poor employment situation.

Research suggests that the youth employment in China is heavily concentrated in the service industry.

The service industry employs nearly 3.6 billion people, accounting for 48% of the total employment population in China.

Youth employment in the service industry represents 61% of all youth employment.

The service industry PMI employment index closely mirrors the trend of youth unemployment rates.

This year, the service industry employment index was at its lowest in August, aligning with the peak in youth unemployment.

Economic downturns have led to a more frugal consumer behavior, affecting the service industry significantly.

The transcript discusses the impact of economic conditions on youth employment, with a focus on service, real estate, finance, education, and IT sectors.

Many traditional industries that absorb youth employment have been laying off employees in recent years.

The transcript highlights the disproportionate impact of layoffs on younger employees, especially those under 30.

The number of graduates has been increasing, but job opportunities in the实体经济 have been decreasing.

The transcript compares China's situation with South Korea, where conglomerates contribute little to employment despite their dominance in GDP.

It raises concerns about the potential for China to follow a similar path as South Korea, with high youth unemployment and a focus on speculative investments.

The transcript concludes with a call for the Chinese government to improve the economic environment and create more jobs to give hope to the youth.

The presenter suggests that young people should consider studying abroad as a way to change their circumstances.