【精彩】微软收购动视暴雪 | 世纪收购战争

Summary

微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪，成为全球科技圈历史上最大的收购案。此次收购可能重写整个游戏行业的格局，但在经历了美国、欧盟和英国近两年的反垄断战后，微软终于在索尼的阻挠下走到了今天。视频分为两部分，首先概述整个游戏行业的结构和收购对市场的影响，然后详细讨论收购案。分析了游戏行业开发者和发行商的不平衡，以及微软合并后的利润可能超过苹果和索尼，仅次于腾讯。最后，讨论了收购对索尼的影响，特别是对《使命召唤》这一核心IP的控制权争夺，以及微软为了通过反垄断审查而做出的承诺和努力。

Takeaways

• 🚀 微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪，成为全球科技圈历史上最大的收购案，可能重写整个游戏行业的格局。
• 🌍 微软在美国、欧盟和英国经历了近两年的反垄断战，尽管索尼极力阻挠，最终还是达成了收购。
• 🎮 动视暴雪是游戏领域的核心玩家，拥有《魔兽世界》、《使命召唤》等多个著名游戏IP。
• 📈 尽管动视暴雪的财务数据并不突出，2021年的收入在全球游戏公司中仅排名第七，但其连续打造热门游戏的能力是独一无二的。
• 🔄 游戏行业大致分为开发商和发行商两部分，随着行业发展，平台方逐渐占据优势，开发商在谈判中处于不利地位。
• 🛠️ 游戏开发成本不断上升，3A大作往往需要数亿美元的研发费用和数年时间，增加了开发商的负担。
• 🏢 一些公司采用一站式模式，在自己的平台上销售自己的游戏，控制了整个链条的利润。
• 🎮 任天堂通过独家游戏模式，在其Switch平台上获得了81%的收入，是游戏行业的一个特例。
• 🤝 动视暴雪愿意被收购，是因为它夹在大型平台之间感到不适，利润空间不断被挤压。
• 🌐 微软和动视暴雪的合并，如果能成功，将能够在利润上超越苹果和索尼，仅次于腾讯。
• ⚖️ 反垄断审查是微软收购动视暴雪过程中的重要一环，需要在多个国家通过审查，证明收购不会破坏市场竞争。

Q & A

微软收购动视暴雪的总价值是多少？

微软收购动视暴雪的总价值为687亿美元。

微软收购动视暴雪的交易是否改写了整个游戏行业的格局？

微软收购动视暴雪的交易可能会改写整个游戏行业的格局，因为它是全球科技圈历史上最大的收购案。

动视暴雪在2021年的营收排名世界第几？

动视暴雪在2021年的营收排名世界第七。

动视暴雪的哪些游戏是其旗舰产品？

动视暴雪的旗舰游戏包括《魔兽世界》、《使命召唤》、《糖果传奇》、《炉石传说》、《守望先锋》、《星际争霸》和《暗黑破坏神》等。

为什么动视暴雪愿意被微软收购？

动视暴雪愿意被微软收购是因为它夹在大型平台之间感到不适，利润空间不断被挤压，并且面临诸多麻烦和诉讼。

索尼如何试图阻止微软收购动视暴雪？

索尼通过在三个主要战场（美国、欧盟和英国）尽一切可能证明微软的收购会破坏市场竞争来阻止收购，但由于财力不足，无法与微软竞争。

英国竞争和市场管理局（CMA）最初是基于什么理由反对微软收购动视暴雪？

CMA最初是基于微软收购动视暴雪可能会在游戏机市场形成垄断，阻碍市场竞争的理由反对收购。

欧洲委员会（European Commission）对微软收购动视暴雪的担忧是什么？

欧洲委员会担忧微软收购动视暴雪后可能会垄断《使命召唤》这款游戏，对市场竞争造成伤害。

美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）在阻止微软收购动视暴雪的案件中败诉的原因是什么？

FTC败诉的原因是法院认为微软不会并且没有必要垄断《使命召唤》，且微软提供了大量证据表明其没有垄断意图。

收购完成后，微软对动视暴雪的游戏《使命召唤》有何承诺？

微软承诺在未来10年内，让《使命召唤》可以在游戏中平台游玩，并与索尼签订了分享协议。

微软收购动视暴雪的案例对其他大型科技公司有何影响？

此案例对其他大型科技公司产生的影响是，FTC在调查这些公司的垄断行为时的信誉受到了削弱，这对谷歌、亚马逊和Meta等公司是有利的。

Outlines

00:00

📈 微软收购动视暴雪：游戏行业的历史性变革

2021年10月13日，微软以687亿美元的价格正式收购动视暴雪，成为全球科技圈历史上最大的收购案。这一举措可能会重写整个游戏行业的格局。尽管索尼竭力阻挠，微软在经历了美国、欧盟和英国近两年的反垄断战后，终于走到了今天这一步。视频的第一部分将讨论整个游戏行业的一般结构以及这次收购在整个市场中的作用，第二部分将详细讨论这次收购。

05:01

🎮 索尼与动视暴雪的合作与冲突：《使命召唤》的经济效应

索尼自身数据显示，2021年《使命召唤》为索尼带来了15亿美元的收入。索尼利用其在游戏主机行业的领导地位，与动视暴雪签订了所谓的独占协议，到2023年底，最新一代的《使命召唤》只能在PS上玩。微软的成功收购将结束索尼的《使命召唤》独占权，可能导致索尼PS失去大量用户，动摇其领导地位。索尼无法在财力上与微软竞争，因此只能采取其他手段尽力阻止收购完成。

10:01

🔍 反垄断战争：微软收购动视暴雪的挑战与应对

微软收购动视暴雪并非普通的小规模并购，这类大规模收购通常要经过严格的反垄断审查。反垄断法并非反对大公司，而是反对阻碍竞争的行为。美国反垄断部门首先介入调查，因为两家公司都是美国公司。微软需要在其业务覆盖的各国通过反垄断审查，证明收购不会破坏市场竞争。索尼的目标是在这些战场上尽一切可能证明微软将破坏市场竞争。

15:02

🌐 微软的全球战略与监管机构的回应

微软为应对反垄断审查，提前一年半时间准备，并在多个战场上展开斗争。欧盟首先发起攻击，但在微软提供游戏共享合同后，欧盟委员会的态度有所缓和。英国竞争和市场管理局（CMA）的态度出现180度转变，直接裁定收购构成垄断，令市场感到意外。微软的应对策略是授权云业务给育碧，为CMA提供了解决方案。

20:02

⚖️ 美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）的挑战与法院的裁决

美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）对微软收购动视暴雪案提起诉讼，试图阻止收购。FTC要求微软提供300万份内部文件以寻找证据。然而，法院在审理过程中发现FTC的指控站不住脚，微软提供了充分的证据表明其没有垄断意图。最终，法院裁定FTC败诉，微软赢得了这场战斗。

25:05

🏆 收购案的成功与行业未来的展望

经过近两年的努力和超过40个国家的审批，微软最终在所有三个主要战场上赢得了胜利。英国CMA在微软提供云业务授权后撤销了之前的禁令。动视暴雪的股票价格飙升至94美元，宣布收购案于10月6日达成一致，微软完成了这项价值687亿美元的技术行业最大收购案。

Keywords

💡收购

收购是指一家公司通过购买另一家公司的股份或资产来获得对其的控制权。在视频中，微软以687亿美元的价格收购动视暴雪，这是科技圈历史上最大的收购案例。收购不仅涉及资金交易，还可能改变整个游戏行业的格局。

💡动视暴雪

动视暴雪是一家知名的游戏开发和发行公司，旗下拥有《魔兽世界》、《使命召唤》等多个著名游戏IP。它是游戏领域的核心玩家，尽管在财务数据上表现并非特别突出，但其在游戏行业中的影响力不容小觑。

💡反垄断

反垄断是指为了防止企业滥用市场支配地位，限制或扭曲市场竞争的行为。在视频中，微软在收购动视暴雪的过程中，需要经历美国、欧盟和英国等地区的反垄断审查，以证明收购不会破坏市场竞争。

💡市场格局

市场格局是指市场中各竞争者之间的相对地位和关系，包括市场份额、竞争策略等。视频讨论了微软收购动视暴雪可能会重写整个游戏行业的市场格局，尤其是在游戏开发和发布方面。

💡游戏开发成本

游戏开发成本指的是开发一款游戏所需的全部费用，包括研发、营销、人力资源等。随着游戏行业的发展，开发成本越来越高，尤其是3A级大作，往往需要数百万甚至数十亿的研发费用和数年的开发周期。

💡平台

在游戏行业中，平台通常指的是游戏分发和玩家互动的媒介，如游戏机、PC、移动设备等。平台方控制着流量和资本，对游戏开发者有着重要的影响力。

💡独家游戏

独家游戏是指仅在特定游戏平台上才能玩到的游戏，通常是游戏平台开发商自己的游戏。这种模式有助于平台商吸引和保留用户，提高平台的独特性和吸引力。

💡会员制业务

会员制业务是一种商业模式，用户通过支付月费或年费成为会员，以获得平台提供的服务或产品。在游戏行业中，这类似于Netflix的模式，用户成为会员后可以随意游玩平台上的所有游戏。

💡股票价格

股票价格是市场上对一家公司股票价值的即时评估，反映了市场对公司未来发展的预期。在视频中，动视暴雪的股票价格变动被用来衡量市场对其被微软收购成功可能性的预期。

💡云游戏

云游戏是一种通过互联网提供游戏服务的模式，玩家无需高性能的本地硬件，可以直接在云端服务器上玩游戏，并将游戏画面流式传输到玩家的设备上。

💡法律诉讼

法律诉讼是指个人或企业因法律问题向法院提起的正式申诉。在视频中，微软和动视暴雪的收购案引发了多起法律诉讼，包括美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）试图阻止收购的法律行动。

Highlights

微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪，成为全球科技圈历史上最大的收购案。

收购案经历了在美国、欧盟和英国近两年的反垄断战，尽管索尼极力阻挠，微软还是走到了今天这一步。

动视暴雪是游戏领域的核心玩家，拥有《魔兽世界》、《使命召唤》、《糖果传奇》等著名游戏。

尽管动视暴雪的财务数据并不突出，2021年收入81亿美元，全球游戏公司中仅排名第七。

微软与动视暴雪合并后，利润有望超过苹果和索尼，仅次于腾讯。

游戏行业大致可分为开发商和发行商两部分，随着行业发展，平台方逐渐占据优势。

动视暴雪愿意被收购，是因为它夹在大型平台之间感到不适，利润空间被挤压。

索尼和微软是游戏主机领域的三大巨头，索尼的PlayStation、微软的Xbox和任天堂的Switch。

索尼对收购案感到焦虑，因为动视暴雪拥有索尼的摇钱树《使命召唤》。

索尼无法在财力上与微软竞争，只能通过其他手段尽力阻止收购完成。

微软的收购案不仅需要在美国进行反垄断审查，还需要在业务覆盖的其他国家和地区通过审查。

英国竞争和市场管理局（CMA）最初表示可能阻止收购，但后来改变了态度。

欧盟委员会表示微软收购动视暴雪可能会垄断《使命召唤》，但后来批准了收购。

美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）起诉试图阻止收购，但在法庭上败诉。

微软在法庭上展示了索尼内部文件，揭示索尼CEO对微软收购的真实看法。

微软CEO纳德拉表示，如果可能，他希望废除游戏主机市场的独占现象。

英国首相苏纳克对CMA的不合理转变表示不满，并公开表示将进行机构改革。

最终，所有三个主要战场都给出了裁决，只有英国的CMA阻止了收购，但后来撤销了禁令。

收购案在40多个国家获得批准，历时近两年，最终在10月13日正式完成。

Transcripts

Hi

On October 13,

Microsoft officially acquired Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion.

This acquisition became

the largest acquisition in the history of global technology circle.

It may rewrite the pattern of the entire game industry

but such a large acquisition is not easy.

Microsoft has gone through nearly two years of anti-monopoly war in

United States, European Union, and United Kingdom,

and it has only come to where it is today despite Sony's best efforts to obstruct it.

Today we will take a closer look at the acquisition of the century

based on the pattern of the global gaming industry.

What kind of exciting games and competitions have gone on

between Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, market players

and regulators from various countries?

Today’s video is divided into two parts.

First, let’s talk about

the general structure of the entire gaming industry

and the role of this acquisition plays in the overall market

In the second part, we will talk about this acquisition in detail.

If you want to watch about the acquisition

you can fast forward directly to this point in time.

This part is very interesting

There might not be many of you who play games

and not familiar with Activision Blizzard

but you have probably heard of their games

such as "World of Warcraft", "Call of Duty",

"Candy Crush", "Hearthstone", "

"Overwatch", "StarCraft",

"Diablo", etc. All these famous games

are the flagship games of Activision Blizzard.

It is definitely a core player in the gaming field.

In fact, if you just look at the financial data

Activision Blizzard’s performance is actually not that outstanding.

Their revenue in 2021 is $8.1 billion

Among the game companies in the world, they only ranked seventh.

Seventh does not seem outstanding

but do you know who are at the top?

Tencent, Sony, Apple, Microsoft, and Google

They are all comprehensive technology companies

Actually, these large companies more or less

taking advantage of their own platform to get involved in the gaming industry.

Activision Blizzard is really the only one in the gaming industry

that can build one hit after another

step by step.

And once Microsoft merges with Activision Blizzard

Look at their profits. It can surpass Apple and Sony

and reach second place, just behind Tencent.

Once the acquisition is successful,

What does this mean to the entire gaming industry?

Let’s briefly analyse this

The gaming industry can be roughly divided into two parts

The developer, the one who makes games.

and the publisher, which are different platforms and channels.

In the early days, the two sides were actually on the same page.

But as the industry develops, it gradually begins to become unbalanced and

gradually tilts towards the platform side.

Think about it, there are so many games

and the developer side is in a perfect competition situation

while there are only a few platforms.

On the other hand, game development costs are actually getting higher and higher

Many 3A masterpieces

such as "Cyberpunk 2077"

and "Call of Duty"

often require hundreds of millions of dollars in R&D.

and need to take three to five years.

The higher the cost,

the greater the disadvantage when negotiating with the platform.

In addition, the platform generally controls the traffic and capital,

which will slowly start to eat up upstream developer.

There are even some companies that have come up with one-stop model

selling their own game at their own platform

So every profits earned at each chain

belongs to them

Some companies

will adopt a method called Exclusive.

Note that this is very important

You can only play my own games

on my own console.

The most typical one is Nintendo

On their Switch platform, 81% of their revenue

comes from their own games.

Why do I have to talk about this in great length

Actually if you look at the companies in the top revenue rankings

almost all are dependent on their own platform traffic

So why does Activision Blizzard still willing to be acquired

despite having so many flagship ip

It is because it is sandwiched between these big platforms.

and feels uncomfortable

because everyone gives priority to supporting their own games,

so Activision Blizzard

profit margins are squeezed smaller and smaller.

At the same time, they have been riddled with troubles and lawsuits.

They knew that the gaming industry

would slowly move towards a platform-dominated structure,

so they thought that

instead of being adrift and helpless, it would be better to embrace

and accept the olive branch offered by Microsoft.

Let’s continue and

look at these platforms. Actually it's not a big chaotic fight

There are different battlefields

Tencent, Apple, Google, NetEase and etc.

their main battlefields are all on the mobile side

The one that is really on the same track as Microsoft

is Sony and Nintendo

They are the three giants in the field of game consoles.

Everyone must have heard of their game consoles:

Sony's PlayStation (referred to as PS),

Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's Switch.

Let's take a general look at the market share.

PS accounts for about half,

Xbox and Switch each accounts for a quarter

So Sony is the absolute leader.

This is a relatively balanced result of the competition between

these three companies for nearly two decades.

No one has completely defeated the other.

In here, as we mentioned, because Nintendo's games

are relatively exclusive

so their users are also relatively independent.

Sony and Microsoft, as well as

the PS and Xbox have high degree of overlap

in terms of their users and games.

The two have been at odds with each other for more than ten years,

and they are also at the center of today's acquisition war.

In recent years,

both of them have been running their own membership-based business,

which is a bit like Netflix in the gaming industry.

After you pay a monthly fee to become a member,

you can play all the games on the platform at will

Under this model,

the number of games on your platform

especially the number of hot games is very critical.

This is why Microsoft is willing to spend so much money

to acquire Activision Blizzard.

So Sony was really anxious as soon as the acquisition was announced.

This not only means Microsoft's volume increase in size

the key is that Activision Blizzard has

a very, very core game.

This game is not only Activision Blizzard's top IP

but also Sony's cash cow.

This game is "Call of Duty",

Call of Duty

Call of Duty economic return can be said to be

one of the most successful IPs in the history of gaming.

How important is it to Sony?

It is no exaggeration to say that it is Sony’s top card.

According to Sony itself,

In 2021, Call of Duty brought Sony

US$1.5 billion in revenue

Sony also used

its position as the leader in the game console industry

to sign a so-called exclusive agreement with Activision Blizzard.

By the end of 2023,

you can only play the latest generation

of "Call of Duty" on PS

You can see that the relationship between Activision Blizzard and Sony

was great thanks to Call of Duty

But suddenly out came Microsoft

Once the acquisition is successful,

Sony's exclusive "Call of Duty"

will definitely be over.

The most horrible thing is that

if Microsoft places "Call of Duty"

as its exclusive,

Sony's PS is likely to lose a large number of users

and Sony's position as the leader may be shaken.

So Sony is definitely unwilling to let

Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard's

Under normal circumstances, if the leader doesn't want you to huddle

They can definitely pay a higher price

and acquire Activision Blizzard

But what's the problem?

If we talk about the influence in the gaming industry,

Sony will definitely be the winner

But in terms of financial resources

Sony is no match for Microsoft.

To put it bluntly

Sony can’t afford it and fall far behind.

In fact, you can’t blame Sony.

There aren't many tech companies around the world

that can fork out so much cash

Only a few in total, Microsoft, Google,

In the recent years

Sony and Alibaba had saved some money

Even Apple and Tencent

don’t have that much money in their hands

leave alone Sony. So what can they do?

They can only play dirty

and try their best to prevent the completion of this acquisition.

This brings us to the second part of our video.

The antitrust war

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard

is not like that ordinary small mergers and acquisitions

Done when two people see eye to eye and the board of directors agrees.

Such a large-scale acquisition

usually undergoes very strict antitrust review.

First of all, we must understand what antitrust is, right?

What exactly does it oppose

It doesn't mean if you're too big, it's not good.

Otherwise, Google's search engine

which accounted 90% of the market share,

would've been dismantled

Because Google has to be very careful,

not to suppress competitors

Just have to work hard to make good product

Other companies also have search engine

People choose me because my product is better

So you can't say I'm breaking the law

If it secretly written into the algorithm

to prevent competitors' products from appearing

or when you search

and the result came out with bunch of negative news about competing products.

then it is suppressing competitors

Lawsuit on Google will definitely come immediately.

So as you can see

Antitrust is not against big companies

it is against hindering competition

Who will conduct an antitrust investigation against these two companies?

First of all, it must be the US antitrust department,

because both of them are American companies.

If the United States says that

your merger and acquisition violated the Antitrust Law,

then the merger and acquisition will just fail

But it is not only the US that can intervene in this matter.

After all, their businesses are spread all over the world.

So if there is another place outside the US

that says you have violated antitrust in our country

such as the European Union or China

then the acquisition can still proceed.

But in this region,

the two companies cannot operate at the same time.

There must be one company

have to withdraw from the market in this region

Microsoft will definitely not willing to do so.

In short,

if Microsoft wants to comfortably acquire Activision Blizzard

it must pass the antitrust review in

the countries it has business in

In fact, the review in most countries goes relatively smoothly

without too many twists and turns,

including China, South Korea, Brazil, and even Japan.

There are no objections

The main conflicts here are the three major battlefields:

US, EU and UK

Microsoft need to do their best to win in all three battlefields

to prove that their acquisitions will not destroy market competition.

In turn, Sony's goal

is to use all means possible in these three battlefields

to prove that Microsoft is going to destroy market competition

They don't mean well

So how do you judge whether you have hindered market competition ?

To decide on this

you have to think whether in future

it will hinder market competition

It is a very vague and ambiguous matter.

Let me give you an inappropriate example

For example before getting married

you have to decide whether you will always be good to your partner in the future.

This is a very vague thing, right?

How to judge what is good

I can only make a rough guess based on your past behaviour and

the relationship between the two of you.

The regulatory agencies in these countries

can only judge

whether the acquisition has the

intention to hinder competition in the future

through company executives' emails

and exchanges in the company.

Let’s first see how much the market thinks you intend to

hinder competition.

In other words, how high is the market's expectation

on your success upon initial announcement

How do see it?

All you need to do is look at the stock price.

Look at Activision Blizzard’s stock price

before the acquisition was announced was $65

and Microsoft's acquisition price is $95

So in theory,

if everyone thinks that your acquisition is 100% successful,

then Activision Blizzard's stock price should be immediately adjusted to 95.

On the other hand, if everyone thinks that

your acquisition will definitely not be successful,

then this stock price may just lying there

Of course this is just an estimation

In fact, after the news was announced,

Activision Blizzard's stock price jumped to $81

and then stabilised at around $80.

We can deduce that

The market expects that the probability of this acquisition being successful

is exactly 50:50

Actually let me tell you this

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After all, funds are the most honest

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It also has a community where you can see

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After all, they are professionals in this field,

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For example, in agencies tracking,

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We mentioned that the market expectation

on the success of the acquisition

is exactly 50:50

In other words, the winning rates of Microsoft and Sony are 50% each.

It really seems like there's a script

this acquisition competition has started

Microsof announced on January 2022

about this acquisition plan

They had already expected that

the acquisition will definitely be difficult,

and Sony will definitely make various attempts to prevent it

Regulators will definitely be looking for evidence with a magnifying glass.

and conduct investigation thoroughly

So they actually

reserved one and a half years in advance

to prepare for a protracted war.

It set the official merger date

in July 2023,

but they underestimated this war

Just as Microsoft expected

After preliminary reviews,

regulatory agencies in the three countries of the US, EU and UK

have fired the first shots.

In June 2022,

the British Competition and Markets Authority, CMA

announced that it would investigate this acquisition

In September 2022, the EU also began an investigation

December 2022, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC)

also filed a legal lawsuit

and began investigating and seeking to block the acquisition.

Since then, Microsoft's antitrust battle

has begun across three battlefields.

The first to attack is the European Union

On February 3, 2023, the European Commission said that

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard

would give Microsoft incentives to monopolize "Call of Duty",

which would be harmful to market competition.

Activision Blizzard's stock price fell on the same day

in response to the news on February 21.

A hearing that was not open to the public was held, and

not only Microsoft and Activision Blizzard were called

Sony was also called over

Before this hearing,

Microsoft and Sony could only mock each other from a distance,

but it is said that during the hearing, this both sides were completely at odds and

started to fight each other.

Sony PS boss, Jim Ryan

directly said in court

that I don't want a

new "Call of Duty" deal

I just want to block your merger

He was not shy in

speaking his heart out.

In short, it's no longer important to me

whether Microsoft will monopolise Call of Duty

But not having Microsoft is very important to me.

You see, with Sony fanning the flames on the side

It is actually very detrimental to Microsoft

but Microsoft is actually not panicking at all.

In fact, Microsoft has been

secretly making its first move in the past year,

which is to sign game sharing contracts

with as many game platforms as possible.

I guarantee that in the next 10 years,

Activision Blizzard’s “Call of Duty”

can be played on your game platform.

The other two major game platforms, Nintendo and Nvidia,

was very happy that they get

Call of Duty without breaking a sweat

They immediately signed a contract with Microsoft.

Of course, Microsoft also gave this contract to Sony,

but Sony refused to sign

So Microsoft leisurely tabled the contracts with

Nintendo and Nvidia in front of the European Commission.

Alright

aren't you worried that I will monopolise in the future?

Don't worry, I will never do it.

We will definitely not engage in monopoly.

I have signed it in black and white.

We will never hinder market competition.

At this hearing,

the European Commission not only called out Sony and Microsoft.

It also invited third party like Nvidia and Google

to make comments

and to be fair

Well at this time Microsoft had already smoothed things over

with Nvidia and Google

Nvidia have already signed the contract

So they naturally speaking up for Microsoft

Microsoft was sincere in

signing the contract, which made

European Commission's anger

dissipate almost by half.

Basically dispelling their concerns about this acquisition.

The first battle, Microsoft wins

Activision Blizzard stock price has also risen steadily.

Let me tell you a little more about how to look at this stock price.

Isn't Microsoft going to

acquire Activision Blizzard for $95?

So if we ignore some basic fluctuations in the market,

the closer the stock price to $95

proves that the market believes the acquisition will be successful

Let’s take a look at the UK.

It is the battlefield on the CMA side.

In January 2023,

just before the tit-for-tat confrontation with EU

CMA actually revealed that

it might block this acquisition

But Mircrosoft released

a large number of good-faith contracts

At the same time, they were lobbying.

The CMA had already changed its tune in March.

They said that after careful analysis,

they felt that Microsoft would be "Loss Making" if

they make Call of Duty exclusive

Means that Microsoft has the incentives to share Call of Duty

Doesn't that mean that this acquisition will not hinder market competition?

Activision's stock rose by 5% that day.

Microsoft was also happy

to think that

At least they got one battle down right

It’s not over yet

Sony is not an easy target

They claimed that CMA's support towards Microsoft

is unreasonable

Because PS is better

than Xbox in many ways

but once this acquisition is completed,

it is very likely that people will stop using their good product

because of Activision Blizzard's products

and turn to the not-so-good Xbox.

How is this not hindering market competition

, and I will tell you. It is said that Sony also made a bad move

All the executives at Sony

have stopped contacting and communicating with

people from Activision Blizzard and Microsoft.

It doesn’t matter if you call or send email,

They will just ignore

Just don’t play any more tricks

But we don't know if they are lobbying secretly or not.

In short, one month later,

the British CMA’s attitude made a 180-degree turn.

On April 26, the CMA directly ruled that no,

your acquisition is a monopoly and cannot be completed

This ruling really surprised the market.

No one expected

the CMA to flip

Activision's stock plummeted 12% that day.

This is a formal ruling,

which is unlike the EU’s previous statements

or hearings.

UK is the first among the three major battlefields

to make a clear ruling

The funny thing is

do you know the reason why they ruled against it?

Originally, the focus of the quarrel between Microsoft and Sony

was on the game console market

After Microsoft acquired it,

it will hinders competition or something,

but the CMA said that

they have no problem with the console part,

and really can't find anything wrong with it,

but they took a different approach.

They said that in the cloud gaming business,

Microsoft is likely to have a monopoly in the future.

The CMA said that

Microsoft have Xbox, window and Azure cloud

and the current Xbox subscription service

also has a cloud gaming part.

Now the global market share of cloud gaming

has reached 60% to 70%.

Once the acquisition is successful

Microsoft will have great incentives

to monopolise Activision Blizzard's cloud gaming services.

It may hinder innovation and suppress competition.

Doesn't that sound reasonable to you?

Why do I say that CMA's new approach

is a bad move?

Because the cloud gaming business

market share in the gaming industry is very small

and is not yet mature

It only accounts for 1% of the

global gaming market.

Anyway,

after the attitude of CMA has undergone a 180-degree change,

Sony won the second game

For Microsoft

it was definitely a

Catastrophic Defeat

Everything happened too suddenly.

And the UK's attitude

is likely to affect future

rulings by the EU including the US

So the head of Microsoft, Brad Smith,

made a sensational speech

He said that this may be the darkest day

in their four decades in Britain

the English Channel.

has never seemed wider

However he hasn't given up

While expressing his sadness, he also said that

if you want to start a business,

the EU may be more suitable than the UK.

You see, he is indeed a veteran

calling out UK while praising EU.

British Prime Minister Sunak couldn't stand

the inexplicable change of CMA

After all, he didn't want to offend these big tech companies.

In May, he publicly stated that

he would carry out institutional reform of the CMA

But in the end,

although the CMA received flood of verbal attacks

this decision was not withdrawn.

Fortunately, as far as

Microsoft is concerned,

the EU side went relatively smoothly.

On May 15,

the EU approved the acquisition as everyone expected.

Of course, there are some additional conditions

roughly stating that Microsoft must keep its promise in the future

and treat all

cloud services equally. You cannot do anything exclusive

and then let it go.

In fact, the EU's passing the ruling

’was expected by the market

after the last hearing.

So there was not much fluctuation in the stock market.

But as soon as the news about EU ruling was released

Sunak's spokesperson came out again

and started to criticise CMA

saying that although the UK has exited from EU

But it will not do anything that disagrees with the EU.

We, the UK, is still a country that is

very friendly to technology companies.

Actually, what it means is that

CMA, what kind of bullshit decision did you make?

Do you still want tech companies to come to the UK?

Of course, Microsoft will continue to appeal

after the CMA's decision.

This matter is not over yet. There will be a reversal later.

Let’s first take a look at the biggest main battleground in this battle:

the United States

The antitrust agency here in the United States

the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

It is different from EU and UK.

They don't have the last say.

The European Commission and CMA have the power to make decisions.

After the CMA makes a ruling

even if the British Prime Minister disagrees,

he can only make few comments

and can't do anything else.

However, the FTC in the US is a prosecutorial agency.

What it can do is investigate whether this acquisition

has any validity

then collect the evidence and appeal to the court.

In the end, the decision whether the acquisition

can go through lies with the court.

Although the FTC has no decision-making power

they are not easy to deal with.

They spend all day in the market looking for

potential monopoly, unfair competition

harming consumer rights, etc., then sue them.

They want to prove their value

showing they are not a freeloader.

They have to find the largest and most prestigious companies

or acquisitions case and then take action.

For example, Nvidia has been trying to acquire

the chip giant Arm for the past two years

but it failed because of antitrust obstruction by the FTC.

However, Arm switched tracks very quickly,

turned around and had an IPO,

which became the largest listing this year.

Of course, this is another story.

Then how could the FTC stop

Microsoft's deal that is bigger than Arm

After more than a year of intensive search for evidence,

the FTC officially applied to the federal court for an injunction

to block the deal

In 22 June 2023

A five-day court hearing kicked off in San Francisco

which was also the most important battle between the two sides.

Microsoft took this confrontation very seriously

and directly sent out their strongest lineup.

They could've just sent the head of the gaming department to make the case

but they didn't

They invited Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft

and of course the head of Xbox

and the CEO of Activision Blizzard

The FTC also invited the boss of Sony PS

the one we mentioned, Jim Ryan

They participated this online

The focus of the debate between the two sides

is still in the game console market.

Whether Microsoft will

suppress market competition

through the acquisition

(we just talked about it)

Regarding this, actually the fact just lied there

After Microsoft acquired it

they did have the ability to monopolise and hinder competition,

but they lowered their position

So no matter what they say it makes sense

The court just wants to see whether Microsoft has any intention

to hinder competition

Can they find evidence to prove that

Microsoft will treat this other half badly in the future

So the FTC asked Microsoft for

3 million internal documents.

Note that it is not 3 million words

or 3 million pages, but 3 million documents

including those related to acquisitions in the past few years.

Almost all internal information

like email, chat records

even video conferences, etc.

What the FTC wants to do is

to find a needle in a haystack among these 3 million documents.

It's best if they could find a sentence

about which Microsoft executive said in some day some year.

Saying the acquisition of Activision Blizzard

is because they wanted to monopolise the game and kill off Sony

Wouldn't this prove that they have the intention of monopolising?

Microsoft is not a pushover

They have expected that FTC would want all these

so they have been very careful even in internal communications

not to reveal any trace of wanting to hinder market competition.

Of course we don't know what exactly Microsoft thinks about

or whether it has this intention.

But the fact is

FTC is really digging deep into the ground.

In these 3 million documents,

it can't find any evidence that Microsoft wants to monopolise.

On the contrary

Microsoft has resorted to a counter-attack

and asked for Sony's internal communication materials.

That Sony But Microsoft is not as careful as Microsoft.

You heard what Jim Ryan said at the EU hearing

and you know that this guy quite temperamental

So in the first hour of the first day

of the California hearing,

Microsoft released a big move.

They showed an internal document from Sony.

The email Jim Ryan sent internally

when Microsoft announced that it would acquire Activision Blizzard.

It said that

Microsoft's acquisition

was not for exclusivity at all.

They are thinking bigger than that

I am familiar with the CEOs of Xbox and Activision Blizzard.

I am very sure

that we will still get the

new games in the Call of Duty series in the future.

Isn't it obvious?

He himself knows that Microsoft

will not monopolise Call of Duty.

This is completely contrary to

what he has always claimed about Microsoft's monopoly.

Microsoft's move is really ruthless, right?

Telling you right from the very beginning that Sony's CEO

has character problems. You can't believe what he says.

We, Microsoft, on the contrary

means what we say

You have turned our house upside down

and still couldn't find any intention of us intending on monopoly.

So when they made this move

On the FTC side, Sony's image

was greatly compromised in the eyes of the judge.

Then Microsoft followed up with another move

and fixated upon the exclusivity issue

Microsoft CEO Nadella said that

if I could make the decision,

I would like to abolish the phenomenon of exclusivity in the console market.

But it is not for me to define this matter.

The leaders of this industry

have already decided to use exclusivity to compete in the market.

What he said was grande

So does he mean?

Basically, Sony has no right to

say Microsoft is implementing exclusivity

As the number one leader in the gaming industry

exclusivity is what you came up with

Microsoft started to present facts and reason

and said, look, there are only 56 games exclusive on Xbox.

and you, Sony PS, you have 296,

and how dare you say we are

doing exclusivity

Microsoft just gave in

and said that in game console market,

we have already lost to Sony

even if we acquire Activision Blizzard

it's absolutely impossible for us to form a monopoly.

Sony will still be leader and we even wanted to share

but you just wouldn't sign.

What can I do?

So in just few moves

Microsoft had picked on Sony from its moral character to facts,

completely humiliated Sony.

I guess people at Sony, including the FTC,

were really on pins and needles at that time

And one of the funny things about this hearing was that

the judges and juries in this court

were all very senior and traditional people

Those old men and ladies

don't know much about the games played by young people.

So during the 5-days hearing

Microsoft and the FTC spent a lot of time

to educate these old gentlemen and ladies

about the technical knowledge of the gaming industry

Do you know what happened on the second day of the hearing?

They brought three game consoles,

PS5, Xbox and Switch, to the court.

And explained the game features of each console

also played two games by the way.

On the last day, the focus of the conflict between the two sides

was basically focused on Call of Duty

The judges were confused

what they've been listening all these while

is just about this fighting game?

The FTC thought about it and said

yeah that's basically it.

It's quite a pain for these judges,

having to learn so many foreign knowledge

in such a short amount of time

but also to make decisions that are likely to determine the structure of the industry.

In short, two weeks after the hearing,

on July 10,

the court made a decision announcing the FTC lost the case

When the verdict came out, Activision Blizzard's share price

immediately rose from $22.7 to $91

The market thought that the success was just around the corner.

By the way,

the FTC was not on a narrow defeat this time, but complete defeat.

In the court verdict

overruled FTC's

initial appeal

They belived that Microsoft would not

and had no need to monopolise Call of Duty.

When this verdict came out,

not only Microsoft was happy

Google, Amazon, and Meta were happy too

Because in fact, the FTC was also investigating

monopolisation of these 3 companies.

This case would greatly undermine the credibility of the FTC.

Later, the FTC continued to appeal and was overruled.

Finally, on July 20,

FTC officially withdrew its challenge to the acquisition.

Microsoft won the battle

For Sony, their defeat

in two major battlefields that is US and EU

means that there's no need to fight anymore

So they agreed on the 10 years

sharing agreement on Call of Duty

offered by Microsoft

They give up.

By the end of July,

all three major battlefields gave their verdict

Only the UK's CMA blocked the acquisition.

Their situation is actually a bit embarrassing.

First of all, the US and the EU

are very strict antitrust areas

now everyone passed it.

In addition, the British Prime Minister cynicism towards CMA

So CMA

was facing considerable pressure from public opinion

When the FTC's verdict came out,

they cowered and

said they could talk with Microsoft again.

Microsoft was

giving friendly attiture

weren't you holding on to my cloud business?

Don't bother

Once the acquisition is successful, I can let others take care of it.

So I authorized the cloud business for the next 15 years

to Ubisoft.

Giving CMA an out.

There’s nothing to worry about anymore

you don't have to embarrass yourself anymore

The CMA naturally accept the gesture.

On September 22,

They said that they will revoke the previous ban.

Activision Blizzard’s stock price soared to $94

announcing their agreement to the acquisition on October 6

Microsoft finally won in all three battlefields.

This $68.7 billion largest acquisition in the technology industry,

lasted for nearly two years

and went through approvals in more than 40 countries.

It finally officially concluded on October 13.