Stock Market Secret: How to Always Buy Low and Sell High

Adam Khoo
23 May 202423:31

Summary

TLDRAdam Co emphasizes the key to successful investing is understanding intrinsic value, not just buying low and selling high. He debunks the misconception that low-priced stocks are cheap and high-priced stocks are expensive. Using Robin Hood and Meta Platforms as examples, he explains how to calculate intrinsic value and compares it to current share prices, revealing that Meta is undervalued at $467 despite its high price, while Robin Hood, despite its low price, is overvalued. He warns against relying on simple metrics like the PE ratio and encourages investors to look at a company's future cash flow potential.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“ˆ The secret to successful investing is to buy low and sell high, which means purchasing stocks when they are cheap in terms of their intrinsic value and selling when they are expensive.
  • πŸ’‘ The intrinsic value of a stock is not determined by its absolute price but by its future cash flows discounted back to present value.
  • πŸ“‰ Adam's investment lesson from the past was learning the hard way that a stock trading at a low price isn't necessarily cheap if its intrinsic value is close to zero.
  • 🚫 Avoid common investor mistakes such as judging a stock's value solely by its price or using simplistic metrics like the PE ratio without considering growth potential and cash flow.
  • πŸ’Ή Use a conservative approach to estimate a company's future cash flows and growth rates to avoid overestimation and potential investment losses.
  • πŸ’Ό When valuing a business, consider it as a money-making machine and calculate its worth based on the cash it generates.
  • πŸ“Š Discount future cash flows to their present value using a discount rate that reflects the time value of money and the risk associated with the investment.
  • πŸ’° A company's balance sheet, including cash and debt, plays a crucial role in determining its intrinsic value.
  • πŸ“ˆπŸ“‰ The stock market can be driven by short-term emotions and manipulations, but long-term investment success relies on understanding and investing in stocks based on their intrinsic value.
  • πŸ”’ Adam uses a specific intrinsic value calculator that he developed to estimate the intrinsic value of stocks like Meta Platforms and Robinhood.

Q & A

  • What is the key secret to successful investing according to Adam Co?

    -The key secret to successful investing is to buy low and sell high, which essentially means purchasing stocks when they are cheap in terms of their intrinsic value and selling when they are expensive.

  • Why can the absolute price of a stock be misleading?

    -The absolute price of a stock can be misleading because it does not reflect the intrinsic value of the company. A stock with a low price might be overvalued if the company is performing poorly, while a high-priced stock could be undervalued if the company has strong growth potential.

  • What is the intrinsic value of a stock and why is it important?

    -The intrinsic value of a stock is an estimate of the true value of a company based on its ability to generate cash flows in the future. It is important because it helps investors determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its current market price.

  • How did Adam Co's investment in L&M and Google illustrate the concept of intrinsic value?

    -Adam Co's investment in L&M, which was cheap in terms of absolute price but lost all its value, and Google, which was expensive in terms of absolute price but increased significantly in value, demonstrated that intrinsic value is a better indicator of a stock's potential than its absolute price.

  • What are the two major mistakes retail investors make according to Adam Co?

    -The two major mistakes retail investors make are: 1) Looking at the absolute price and assuming a low price means it's cheap and a high price means it's expensive, and 2) Using simple metrics like the PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap or expensive without considering other factors like growth potential and cash flow.

  • Why can the PE ratio be misleading when valuing a stock?

    -The PE ratio can be misleading because it only considers the net profit, which can be an accounting entry and does not take into account the growth of the company, cash flow, or free cash flow generated.

  • What is the significance of the example Adam Co provided about the money-making machine?

    -The money-making machine example illustrates the concept of discounting future cash flows to their present value using a discount rate. This concept is crucial for determining the intrinsic value of a business or stock.

  • How does Adam Co calculate the intrinsic value of a business?

    -Adam Co calculates the intrinsic value of a business by estimating the cash the business will generate over the next 20 years, discounting that future cash flow to the present value, and then dividing by the number of shares to find the intrinsic value per share.

  • What factors does Adam Co consider when valuing Meta Platforms and Robinhood?

    -Adam Co considers factors such as the company's free cash flow, growth rate, balance sheet cash, debt, and the number of shares outstanding. He also uses a discount rate based on the company's beta to calculate the intrinsic value.

  • What is the difference in Adam Co's valuation between Meta Platforms and Robinhood?

    -According to Adam Co's valuation, Meta Platforms is undervalued with an intrinsic value of $532 per share compared to its market price of $467, while Robinhood is overvalued with an intrinsic value of only $7 per share compared to its market price of around $19.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ’Ή The Secret to Successful Investing

Adam Co introduces the video by emphasizing the importance of understanding the intrinsic value of stocks to achieve consistent profits in investing. He explains that simply buying low and selling high is not enough, as one must discern the true value of a stock beyond its current market price. Adam shares his own experience of investing in a Singaporean construction company, L&M, which appeared cheap at three cents per share but eventually went bankrupt. In contrast, Google, which seemed expensive at $200 per share, turned out to be a great investment as its intrinsic value was much higher than its share price. Adam stresses that investors often make two major mistakes: relying on absolute stock prices and using simplistic metrics like the PE ratio, which can be misleading without considering a company's growth potential and cash flow.

05:01

πŸ“‰ Beyond PE Ratios: The Importance of Intrinsic Value

Adam discusses the limitations of using the PE ratio as the sole metric for determining a stock's value. He uses Intel and Nvidia as examples to illustrate how a low PE ratio does not necessarily indicate a good investment. Intel had a PE ratio of 8, which seemed attractive, but its earnings were declining, making it a poor investment. Conversely, Nvidia had a PE ratio of 84, which appeared expensive, but it had significant growth potential, making it a valuable investment. Adam explains that intrinsic value is the true worth of a business, and investors should calculate this to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. He introduces the concept of discounting future cash flows to present value using a discount rate, which accounts for the time value of money and the opportunity cost of investment.

10:02

πŸ’Ό Calculating Intrinsic Value for Stocks

Adam demonstrates how to calculate the intrinsic value of a business by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them to present value. He uses Meta Platforms as an example, explaining that the company's current free cash flow and projected growth rates are key factors in this calculation. He conservatively estimates Meta's growth rates and uses a discount rate based on the company's cost of equity to arrive at an intrinsic value of $532 per share. Adam compares this to Meta's current market price of $467, concluding that the stock is still undervalued. He also mentions his personal investment in Meta and the profits he has made, while disclosing his vested interest in the company.

15:02

πŸ“‰ Analyzing Robinhood's Stock Valuation

Adam contrasts Meta's valuation with that of Robinhood, which despite its low absolute price, is considered overpriced when its intrinsic value is analyzed. He notes Robinhood's inconsistent financial performance, with negative free cash flow in the last 12 months and no clear growth projections. Adam uses an average free cash flow from the past five years and an optimistic growth rate of 17.6% to calculate Robinhood's intrinsic value, which comes out to only $7 per share. He concludes that Robinhood's stock is overpriced at its current market price of around $19, making it an unattractive long-term investment.

20:03

πŸš€ Long-term Investing and Market Behavior

Adam concludes the video by reiterating the importance of long-term investing based on a stock's intrinsic value rather than short-term market fluctuations. He acknowledges that market prices can be driven by news, emotions, and manipulation in the short term, but ultimately, intrinsic value is what determines a stock's long-term performance. Adam encourages viewers to subscribe to his channel for more investing insights and to consider his online courses for learning about financial markets and investing strategies.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value refers to the real or fundamental value of an asset, in this case, a stock, which may differ from its market price. It is calculated based on the discounted cash flows that the business is expected to generate in the future. In the video, Adam Co emphasizes the importance of intrinsic value over the absolute price when determining whether to invest in a stock. He uses it to argue that while Meta Platforms may seem expensive at $467 per share, its intrinsic value is much higher, making it a good investment.

πŸ’‘Absolute Price

The absolute price is the current market price of a stock or asset. Adam Co points out that many amateur investors mistakenly believe that a stock with a lower absolute price is cheaper and a better investment. However, he argues that without understanding the intrinsic value, one cannot accurately determine if a stock is truly cheap or expensive.

πŸ’‘Discount Rate

The discount rate is the rate used to discount future cash flows to their present value. It reflects the time value of money and the risk associated with the investment. In the script, Adam Co uses a discount rate of 5% to calculate the present value of a hypothetical money-making machine's future cash flows, illustrating the concept of how future earnings are worth less than current earnings.

πŸ’‘Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow is the cash a company generates after accounting for capital expenditures. It is a key indicator of a company's financial health and its ability to distribute cash to investors. In the video, Adam Co uses Meta Platforms' free cash flow of $49.58 billion to project its future cash generation and calculate its intrinsic value.

πŸ’‘Growth Rate

The growth rate is the pace at which a company's earnings or revenues are expected to increase over time. It is a critical factor in determining a stock's intrinsic value. Adam Co uses conservative growth rate estimates for Meta Platforms, assuming 15% growth for the first five years, slowing to 7.5% for the next five, and then 4% for the final ten years.

πŸ’‘Terminal Value

Terminal value is the present value of the cash flows that a company is expected to generate after a certain forecast period. It is often used in financial modeling to estimate the value of a company beyond the projection horizon. Adam Co mentions that he does not use terminal value in his calculations but assumes the company will make money for 20 years.

πŸ’‘Beta

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the overall market. A beta of 1 indicates that the stock moves with the market, while a beta greater than 1 suggests greater volatility. In the script, Adam Co uses Meta Platforms' beta of 1.2 to determine a discount rate for calculating its intrinsic value.

πŸ’‘Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

WACC is the average rate that a company expects to pay to finance its assets. It is often used as a discount rate in valuation models. Adam Co mentions that while some use WACC, he prefers to use the cost of equity, which is influenced by the beta, for his discount rate.

πŸ’‘Overvalued/Undervalued

A stock is considered overvalued if its market price is higher than its intrinsic value, and undervalued if its market price is lower than its intrinsic value. Adam Co uses the intrinsic value calculation to determine that Robin Hood is overvalued at $19 per share, while Meta Platforms is undervalued at $467 per share.

πŸ’‘Market Manipulation

Market manipulation refers to the artificial influence of the price of a stock or the market for personal gain. Adam Co cautions that in the short term, stock prices can be driven up by hype and manipulation, which can make a stock appear cheap even if it has no intrinsic value.

Highlights

The secret to successful investing is to buy low and sell high.

Absolute price can be misleading when determining a stock's value.

Intrinsic value is the key to identifying if a stock is cheap or expensive.

Robinhood (HOOD) at $19 is considered expensive, while Meta Platforms (META) at $467 is seen as cheap.

Adam Co's past investment mistake with L&M and Google stocks illustrates the importance of intrinsic value.

Two common mistakes by retail investors: relying on absolute price and using PE ratio alone.

PE ratio can be misleading as it doesn't account for company growth or cash flow.

Adam Co's experience with Intel and Nvidia shows pitfalls of solely using PE ratio for valuation.

Intrinsic value is calculated by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to present value.

Meta Platforms (META) is valued using a 20-year cash flow projection and a 6.6% discount rate.

Robinhood (HOOD) is valued with an average free cash flow due to inconsistent financials.

Adam Co's intrinsic value calculator is used to find the intrinsic value of stocks.

Meta Platforms (META) is found to be undervalued at $467 per share.

Robinhood (HOOD) is overvalued at $19 per share based on its intrinsic value of $7.

Short-term market prices are driven by emotions and manipulation, not intrinsic value.

Adam Co's personal investment in Meta Platforms (META) and his belief in its long-term value.

The importance of holding undervalued stocks like META for long-term wealth building.

Transcripts

play00:05

hi this is Adam Co here and today I'm

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going to share of you the most important

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secret to successful investing you guys

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ready so the most important ingredient

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to achieving consistent profits in

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investing is to buy low and sell high is

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to buy cheap and sell expensive now I

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know some of you are looking at me right

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now and thinking yeah you're a genius of

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course I know that but it's e easier set

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than done like how do I know when

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something's cheap and how do I know when

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something's expensive because sometimes

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looking at the absolute price can be

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very misleading for example let's take a

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look at two stocks right now Robin Hood

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TI a symbol h o and meta

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platforms Robin Hood is currently

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selling at

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$19 per share and meta platforms is

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selling at

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$467 per share so which stock is cheaper

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and which is more expensive now most

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amateur investors would say of course

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this is cheaper it's only 19 bucks this

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is so expensive $467 it's gone up so

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much ever since the last two years well

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wrong I'm going to prove to you in this

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video that in fact Robin Hood At $19 is

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expensive and meta platforms at

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$467 is still the cheap why because the

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absolute price means nothing unless you

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know what is the intrinsic value of the

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stock and then base the current share

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price on that intrinsic value so this

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was a lesson I learned many many years

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ago over 16 years ago when I was not as

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smart as I am today right so many years

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ago I remember that I bought this stock

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uh from the Singapore Stock Exchange it

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was called L&M it was a construction

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company that was selling at three

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Singapore 4 cents now why did I buy this

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stock because it looks so cheap I said

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three cents how low can it

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go and at the same time I remember at a

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point of time Google listed on the US

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exchange was selling at

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$200 per share now it so happened that I

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I bought both stocks but at the time I

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thought that this was cheaper it would

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go up even more whereas Google looked a

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bit expensive I was a bit

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uncertain but over a year later L&M from

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three cents dropped to zero it went

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bankrupt and I lost all my money

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thankfully it was not a lot of money and

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Google which I also bought from $200

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went up to $1,000 a share and contined

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to go up for the next couple of years in

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fact today Google before doing the share

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split of 20 to1 at today's price would

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be worth 3,000

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uh $500 per share of course they did a

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share split so now it's

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$178 share split so looking back I

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realized that L&M at three cents was

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actually very expensive because the

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actual intrinsic value of L&M was

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actually close to zero because the

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company was losing a lot of money it was

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on a verge of bankruptcy and at the same

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time Google at $200 was really cheap

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because the intrinsic value was actually

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about

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$600 of which the share price went above

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that and then the intrinsic value Rose

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over time to now it's in fact a lot

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higher in fact I can tell you right now

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Google is still the cheap so there are

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two major mistakes that retail investors

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make in the markets mistake number one

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is looking at the absolute price and

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thinking that a low price means it's

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cheap and a high price means it's

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expensive wrong instead you need to look

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at the in inic value of the stock which

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I'm going to explain in a while how I

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calculate it and how I determine whether

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the share price is above the intrinsic

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value expensive or below the intrinsic

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value cheap the second big mistake

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investors make is by looking at a very

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simple metric like PE ratio to determine

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if a stock is cheap or expensive now I

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actually made a video just on this it's

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called the truth about PE ratios if if

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you have not watched that video go watch

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that video video after this video but

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let me just summarize so PE ratio is a

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very simple way to value a stock but it

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can be often times very misleading

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because PE ratio doesn't take into

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account the growth of the company and

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doesn't take into account the cash flow

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or the free cash flow generated and only

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looks at the net profit which sometimes

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can be just an accounting entry that can

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be very misleading so using PE ratio to

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value a stock is like guessing a

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person's weight by looking at their

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Shadow and it can be very misleading

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sometimes you see a big Shadow but a

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skinny person uh from a certain angle

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for example a year and a half ago in

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January 2022 Intel had a very low PE

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ratio of about eight times earnings and

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Nvidia had a PE ratio of 84 times

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earnings and so people who look at PE

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ratio would have been misled they would

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have thought hey this looks so cheap buy

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Intel right this so expensive don't buy

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Nvidia short Nvidia if you had followed

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the p ratio you would have made the

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worst mistake in your life because if

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you actually do a proper valuation which

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I'm going to teach you how to do in a

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short well you would find that at 8times

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PE intel was actually very

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expensive why because the earnings were

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not growing the earnings were declining

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and true enough if you bought it at $50

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at at time Intel would have dropped

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almost by 50% down to about $30 today

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and if you bought Nvidia at a point of

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time Nvidia was selling at $300 by the

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way I bought Nvidia at 150 right so I

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was pretty lucky I bought it uh much

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later than this actually but anyway even

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if you bought at 300 bucks today

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Nvidia as of yesterday's close uh after

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hours is up to

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$1,000 per share because although P of

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84 times looks expensive but it was

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actually not that expensive because

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Nvidia had huge growth potential so what

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is the meaning of intrinsic value and

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how do we calculate it in the right way

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so first understand that when you buy a

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stock you are buying a piece of a

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business so you got to know what the

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business is worth and then divide it by

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the number of shares to know what each

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share is worth so what is a business

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worth now a business is actually a

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moneymaking machine so the more money it

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makes the more it is worth got it so how

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do you know how much money this machine

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will make so let me illustrate with an

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example over

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here let's imagine you have got a

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money-making machine and this is a

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timeline I'm drawing this is

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today this is a year later this is two 2

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years later this is 3 years later and

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let's imagine that this machine will

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print $100

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today right here right now so can you

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tell me how much this machine is worth

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if it prints $100

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today it's worth $100 right because if

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you buy for $100 the machine gives you

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$100 you get back your money okay so the

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value of this machine this the intrinsic

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value is $100

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simple enough enough what if I now told

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you that if you bought this machine and

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this machine would print $100 only

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in a year so one year from now you get

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$100 so what is this machine worth is it

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worth $100 no because you have to wait a

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year to get that 100 bucks so it's worth

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less than 100 bucks if you were to buy

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the machine today correct so what's the

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machine worth today well it depends on

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the opportunity cost of your money we

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call this the discount rate so in other

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words if you had the money to buy the

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machine but you invested the money

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somewhere else with the same risk what

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rate of return would you get so let's

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say for argument sake if you put your

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money somewhere else you could get a

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5% return so that's your discount

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rate so what you then do is you take a

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$100 which you will get in a year you

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divide it by 1 plus the discount rate 1

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+ 5% okay which is equal to 100 divide

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by 1.05 that gives you

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$95 taada so in other words this machine

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is worth

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$95 okay why because if you had $95

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today and you invest it at 5% you get

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$100 in a year's time next question what

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if I had a money-making machine that I

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bought today but it would print $100 in

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two years so you wait one year you wait

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two years and boom you get your1 $100

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what is this machine worth is it worth

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$100 no you could wait two years to get

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your money so it's worth less than $100

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and worth less than 95 bucks

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so to get the answer you take a $100 and

play10:01

divide it by again 1 plus the discount

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rate but you have to discount it twice

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to get to today's value so you got to

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square it okay so what is $100 divided

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by 1.05 squared you get

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$91 so money received in the future is

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worth less than money received today so

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whatever money we get in the future we

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have to discount it by a discount rate

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to the present value okay last question

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I promise so if I have a money-making

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machine that I buy today that's going to

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print

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$100 right now and then another 100 in a

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year and another 100 in two years so I

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get 100 100 100 then what is this

play10:55

machine worth today well this machine

play10:56

will be worth $100

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plus

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95 plus

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91 so this machine the intrinsic value

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of the machine will be

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$286 per uh $286 right so what has this

play11:15

got to do with investing in a stock of a

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business same thing so for example when

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you invest in shares of meta platforms

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which is a business you got to figure

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out in the next 10 20 years how much

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cash is the business going to generate

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and you take all that future cash and

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you discount it to today's value divide

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by the number of shares and Tada you get

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the intrinsic value of

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mattera and then you compare it to the

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share price if the share price is above

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that it's overv valued if it's below

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that it is undervalued so how do I

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actually calculate the intrinsic value

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of the entire business of matter or

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Robin Hood and calculate the intrinsic

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value per share well I use this

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intrinsic value calculator that I

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developed many many years ago and of

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course once you enroll in our value

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momentum investing course you can

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download this calculator I'm going to

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show you how I input the figures right

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now so let's begin by valuing meta so

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what are we trying to do we're trying to

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figure out how much cash meta will

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generate in the next 20 years it's like

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the money-making machine generating cash

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for the next 20 years and then

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discounting all that future cash flow to

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the present value now if you study for a

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CFA in finance they teach you how to uh

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project a business cash flow to

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perpetuity using a terminal value but I

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don't do that I just assume the company

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will make money for 20 years and die so

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anything more than 20 years it's a bonus

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so I'm being very conservative here so

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how much money is meta making right now

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well if you go on to Yahoo finance for

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example you can see the last 12 months

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meta generated

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49. 5.8 billion in free cash flow so

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we're going to use that to project into

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the future so let's put that in uh

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49 5

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18 million which is 49.5 one8 billion so

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that is how much cash they are making in

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one year all right so how much cash will

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they make in the next 20 years so we

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will project the growth rate over here

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now what growth rate do we use that's

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the tricky part if you go to a website

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like finis you can see that they are

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projecting

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meta will be growing at about

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30% annually for the next 5 years 30%

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growth rate now I'm going to be really

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conservative and divide it by

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half it's always good to be conservative

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so I'm going to assume that mattera is

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only going to grow at

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15% for the next 5 years and then after

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that the following five years the growth

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will slow down by half so what's half of

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15% 7.5%

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so that's the first 5 years of growth

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the next 5 years and the last 10 years

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I'm just going to assume mattera is

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going to grow at 4% which is slightly

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above the growth rate of the US economy

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okay so that's how I put in these very

play14:46

conservative growth rates then I've also

play14:49

got to put in how much cash meta has on

play14:52

their balance sheet right now you can

play14:54

check that from the balance sheet

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they've got $ 58 billion of cash

play14:59

then I put in how much debt they have

play15:01

short-term debt plus long-term debt from

play15:04

the balance sheet they've got 18 billion

play15:07

in debt so I put in all these numbers

play15:09

over there and then I put in the number

play15:11

of shares that they have because what

play15:15

this calculator does is it's going to

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project all the future cash flow for the

play15:21

next 20 years it's like the machine

play15:23

printing money for the next 20 years and

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then discounting everything everything

play15:28

to today's value value and divide it by

play15:30

the number of shares to find out the

play15:34

intrinsic value per share now what

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discount rate do we use there are many

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many uh ways to do it for example Warren

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Buffett uses the 10year treasury yield

play15:45

as his discount rate in a CFA cost

play15:48

they'll teach you to use the weighted

play15:50

average cost of capital but I use the

play15:52

cost of equity so using this table over

play15:56

here I check the uh the B beta of meta

play15:59

is

play16:01

1.2 that measures the volatility of the

play16:04

stock and based on a 1.2 beta that gives

play16:07

me a discount rate of

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6.6% so I punched that in to the

play16:12

discount rate and it will give me the

play16:15

intrinsic value of mattera here there we

play16:19

are so the final intrinsic value is

play16:24

$532 as of yesterday's closing price

play16:27

meta is selling at4

play16:29

$167 per share and you can see that at

play16:33

467 meta is still 12% under Valu it

play16:38

still cheap so even though meta has gone

play16:42

up from $80 to 467 it's gone up let's

play16:47

see it's gone

play16:49

up

play16:51

400% it's still cheap and that is why I

play16:54

continue to hold meta in my portfolio so

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disclaimer that's right I'm still a

play16:58

shareholder of meta so I do have some

play17:00

vested interest right so you can see

play17:02

this account I've got meta and I'm still

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holding it right here it's up about you

play17:07

know

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$84,000 in in profits over there and uh

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this other account meta is up uh

play17:14

$888,000 in profits actually I'm up a

play17:16

lot more than that but I was stupid

play17:18

enough to sell some covered calls on

play17:20

meta so some of my shares got taken away

play17:23

damn it right but I still have a couple

play17:26

of shares left which is not too bad I've

play17:28

got about

play17:29

I still have about let's see

play17:32

$186,000 worth of meta shares in this

play17:35

account and

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another

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88,000 worth of meta shares in my second

play17:41

account so total is about 370,000 worth

play17:44

of meta shares which is okay a decent

play17:46

position now how about Robin Hood so

play17:49

Robin Hood looks really cheap based on

play17:52

its absolute price because it's now

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trading at you know

play17:57

$19.66 and some people may say well it

play18:00

was at $84 Once Upon a Time looks really

play18:05

cheap could it get back up there now do

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bear in mind that in a short term market

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prices are driven purely by emotions and

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manipulation so even a business that has

play18:16

got no intrinsic value that is uh losing

play18:20

money going to die the share price can

play18:22

go up because of hype and manipulation

play18:24

because of some pussycat or like you

play18:28

know Donald Trump's Media Company where

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they're losing so much money the share

play18:32

price could go up purely based on

play18:34

manipulation but it is not sustainable

play18:36

so as an investor if you're looking to

play18:38

invest for the long run to build your

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wealth then you don't want the price to

play18:43

just go up in the short term based on

play18:45

hype you want it to go up and keep going

play18:47

up in the long run all right so that's

play18:49

when intrinsic value comes into play so

play18:53

would I buy Robin Hood At today's share

play18:56

price not that I think the hype is going

play18:58

to drive up but I think it's worth $119

play19:01

well let's do a valuation so the first

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thing to do is to take a look at how

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much cash Robin Hood is making right now

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and then we project it to the next 20

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years and discount it to present value

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so going to Yahoo finance you can see

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that for Robin Hood it's actually losing

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money for the last 12 months they

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actually had a negative free cash flow

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of

play19:24

$295

play19:26

million and um so what what happens I

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mean it's negative we can't put in a

play19:31

negative figure right and you can see

play19:33

their free cash flow is very

play19:34

inconsistent in 2020 it was you know

play19:38

1 uh 8 billion and then it was minus

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968 million uh then it was minus 900

play19:46

million then it was 1.16 billion so it's

play19:50

like it's it's like all over the shop

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right they make money they lose money

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they make money they lose money right so

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what do you do in a situation like that

play19:55

so personally the way I would value it

play19:58

in such situation is to take the average

play20:00

free cash flow over the last three or

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five years so if you take the average of

play20:05

The Last 5 Years at all the five years

play20:09

together and divide by five you get an

play20:11

average free cash flow

play20:14

of

play20:17

66.4

play20:20

million okay1 66.4 million so if we

play20:23

punch that into the intrinsic value

play20:27

calculator 16

play20:30

6.4 million okay and Robin Hood has

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total debt of

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4.2 billion in debt they've got 4.7

play20:39

billion in cash now how about the growth

play20:41

of the company what is the growth rate

play20:44

well if you go to uh various websites

play20:46

you notice there's no projected growth

play20:49

rate because the company is so

play20:51

inconsistent there are no analyst that

play20:53

can make a decent projection for example

play20:56

if you go to finis you can see that the

play20:59

next uh 5 years sorry that's mattera

play21:01

let's go to Robin Hood the next 5 years

play21:04

the projection is undefined right but

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they are projected to grow at

play21:11

5.97% next year they can only project

play21:14

one year but beyond that they say we

play21:15

have got no freaking clue okay and if

play21:17

you go to another website Guru Focus you

play21:20

can see again they usually give a future

play21:22

growth rate undefined so we have no idea

play21:26

what the growth rate is so inconsistent

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so the only thing I can do is to put in

play21:30

the future Revenue growth rate which uh

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in this website they Define it as

play21:37

17.6% so being very optimistic let's use

play21:42

17.6% in the growth rate so if we punch

play21:46

in

play21:49

17.6% and let's assume they can grow at

play21:52

17.6% for the next 10 years right let's

play21:55

put that in and even with a 177% growth

play21:59

rate uh their intrinsic value comes up

play22:03

to only

play22:05

$7 so at today's share price of

play22:09

$19 it is way overpriced it's overpriced

play22:13

but by1 71% and that is why I believe

play22:16

that Robin Hood is actually expensive at

play22:19

today's price and meta is actually cheap

play22:22

at today's price now that does not mean

play22:24

that I can predict that mattera will go

play22:26

up the next day the next week or the

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next next month and Robin Hood is going

play22:30

to go down the next day the next week

play22:31

the next month no remember in the short

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term anything can happen in the short

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term the market is driven by news

play22:37

emotions and manipulation so sure Robin

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Hood could go up in the short term meta

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could go down in the long term but in

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the long run I rather hold mattera which

play22:46

I know is undervalued now than holding

play22:49

Robin Hood over the long run so I do

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hope you have found this video

play22:52

enlightening and if you have do gives a

play22:54

thumbs up so thank you for watching and

play22:57

as always me the markets be with you if

play22:59

you want to catch my latest videos click

play23:01

on the Subscribe button right now click

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notifications once I upload my latest

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play23:23

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you can learn investing and trading live

play23:27

online this Adam coup and may the

play23:29

markets be with you

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