Stock Market Secret: How to Always Buy Low and Sell High
Summary
TLDRAdam Co emphasizes the key to successful investing is understanding intrinsic value, not just buying low and selling high. He debunks the misconception that low-priced stocks are cheap and high-priced stocks are expensive. Using Robin Hood and Meta Platforms as examples, he explains how to calculate intrinsic value and compares it to current share prices, revealing that Meta is undervalued at $467 despite its high price, while Robin Hood, despite its low price, is overvalued. He warns against relying on simple metrics like the PE ratio and encourages investors to look at a company's future cash flow potential.
Takeaways
- π The secret to successful investing is to buy low and sell high, which means purchasing stocks when they are cheap in terms of their intrinsic value and selling when they are expensive.
- π‘ The intrinsic value of a stock is not determined by its absolute price but by its future cash flows discounted back to present value.
- π Adam's investment lesson from the past was learning the hard way that a stock trading at a low price isn't necessarily cheap if its intrinsic value is close to zero.
- π« Avoid common investor mistakes such as judging a stock's value solely by its price or using simplistic metrics like the PE ratio without considering growth potential and cash flow.
- πΉ Use a conservative approach to estimate a company's future cash flows and growth rates to avoid overestimation and potential investment losses.
- πΌ When valuing a business, consider it as a money-making machine and calculate its worth based on the cash it generates.
- π Discount future cash flows to their present value using a discount rate that reflects the time value of money and the risk associated with the investment.
- π° A company's balance sheet, including cash and debt, plays a crucial role in determining its intrinsic value.
- ππ The stock market can be driven by short-term emotions and manipulations, but long-term investment success relies on understanding and investing in stocks based on their intrinsic value.
- π’ Adam uses a specific intrinsic value calculator that he developed to estimate the intrinsic value of stocks like Meta Platforms and Robinhood.
Q & A
What is the key secret to successful investing according to Adam Co?
-The key secret to successful investing is to buy low and sell high, which essentially means purchasing stocks when they are cheap in terms of their intrinsic value and selling when they are expensive.
Why can the absolute price of a stock be misleading?
-The absolute price of a stock can be misleading because it does not reflect the intrinsic value of the company. A stock with a low price might be overvalued if the company is performing poorly, while a high-priced stock could be undervalued if the company has strong growth potential.
What is the intrinsic value of a stock and why is it important?
-The intrinsic value of a stock is an estimate of the true value of a company based on its ability to generate cash flows in the future. It is important because it helps investors determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its current market price.
How did Adam Co's investment in L&M and Google illustrate the concept of intrinsic value?
-Adam Co's investment in L&M, which was cheap in terms of absolute price but lost all its value, and Google, which was expensive in terms of absolute price but increased significantly in value, demonstrated that intrinsic value is a better indicator of a stock's potential than its absolute price.
What are the two major mistakes retail investors make according to Adam Co?
-The two major mistakes retail investors make are: 1) Looking at the absolute price and assuming a low price means it's cheap and a high price means it's expensive, and 2) Using simple metrics like the PE ratio to determine if a stock is cheap or expensive without considering other factors like growth potential and cash flow.
Why can the PE ratio be misleading when valuing a stock?
-The PE ratio can be misleading because it only considers the net profit, which can be an accounting entry and does not take into account the growth of the company, cash flow, or free cash flow generated.
What is the significance of the example Adam Co provided about the money-making machine?
-The money-making machine example illustrates the concept of discounting future cash flows to their present value using a discount rate. This concept is crucial for determining the intrinsic value of a business or stock.
How does Adam Co calculate the intrinsic value of a business?
-Adam Co calculates the intrinsic value of a business by estimating the cash the business will generate over the next 20 years, discounting that future cash flow to the present value, and then dividing by the number of shares to find the intrinsic value per share.
What factors does Adam Co consider when valuing Meta Platforms and Robinhood?
-Adam Co considers factors such as the company's free cash flow, growth rate, balance sheet cash, debt, and the number of shares outstanding. He also uses a discount rate based on the company's beta to calculate the intrinsic value.
What is the difference in Adam Co's valuation between Meta Platforms and Robinhood?
-According to Adam Co's valuation, Meta Platforms is undervalued with an intrinsic value of $532 per share compared to its market price of $467, while Robinhood is overvalued with an intrinsic value of only $7 per share compared to its market price of around $19.
Outlines
πΉ The Secret to Successful Investing
Adam Co introduces the video by emphasizing the importance of understanding the intrinsic value of stocks to achieve consistent profits in investing. He explains that simply buying low and selling high is not enough, as one must discern the true value of a stock beyond its current market price. Adam shares his own experience of investing in a Singaporean construction company, L&M, which appeared cheap at three cents per share but eventually went bankrupt. In contrast, Google, which seemed expensive at $200 per share, turned out to be a great investment as its intrinsic value was much higher than its share price. Adam stresses that investors often make two major mistakes: relying on absolute stock prices and using simplistic metrics like the PE ratio, which can be misleading without considering a company's growth potential and cash flow.
π Beyond PE Ratios: The Importance of Intrinsic Value
Adam discusses the limitations of using the PE ratio as the sole metric for determining a stock's value. He uses Intel and Nvidia as examples to illustrate how a low PE ratio does not necessarily indicate a good investment. Intel had a PE ratio of 8, which seemed attractive, but its earnings were declining, making it a poor investment. Conversely, Nvidia had a PE ratio of 84, which appeared expensive, but it had significant growth potential, making it a valuable investment. Adam explains that intrinsic value is the true worth of a business, and investors should calculate this to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. He introduces the concept of discounting future cash flows to present value using a discount rate, which accounts for the time value of money and the opportunity cost of investment.
πΌ Calculating Intrinsic Value for Stocks
Adam demonstrates how to calculate the intrinsic value of a business by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them to present value. He uses Meta Platforms as an example, explaining that the company's current free cash flow and projected growth rates are key factors in this calculation. He conservatively estimates Meta's growth rates and uses a discount rate based on the company's cost of equity to arrive at an intrinsic value of $532 per share. Adam compares this to Meta's current market price of $467, concluding that the stock is still undervalued. He also mentions his personal investment in Meta and the profits he has made, while disclosing his vested interest in the company.
π Analyzing Robinhood's Stock Valuation
Adam contrasts Meta's valuation with that of Robinhood, which despite its low absolute price, is considered overpriced when its intrinsic value is analyzed. He notes Robinhood's inconsistent financial performance, with negative free cash flow in the last 12 months and no clear growth projections. Adam uses an average free cash flow from the past five years and an optimistic growth rate of 17.6% to calculate Robinhood's intrinsic value, which comes out to only $7 per share. He concludes that Robinhood's stock is overpriced at its current market price of around $19, making it an unattractive long-term investment.
π Long-term Investing and Market Behavior
Adam concludes the video by reiterating the importance of long-term investing based on a stock's intrinsic value rather than short-term market fluctuations. He acknowledges that market prices can be driven by news, emotions, and manipulation in the short term, but ultimately, intrinsic value is what determines a stock's long-term performance. Adam encourages viewers to subscribe to his channel for more investing insights and to consider his online courses for learning about financial markets and investing strategies.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Intrinsic Value
π‘Absolute Price
π‘Discount Rate
π‘Free Cash Flow
π‘Growth Rate
π‘Terminal Value
π‘Beta
π‘Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
π‘Overvalued/Undervalued
π‘Market Manipulation
Highlights
The secret to successful investing is to buy low and sell high.
Absolute price can be misleading when determining a stock's value.
Intrinsic value is the key to identifying if a stock is cheap or expensive.
Robinhood (HOOD) at $19 is considered expensive, while Meta Platforms (META) at $467 is seen as cheap.
Adam Co's past investment mistake with L&M and Google stocks illustrates the importance of intrinsic value.
Two common mistakes by retail investors: relying on absolute price and using PE ratio alone.
PE ratio can be misleading as it doesn't account for company growth or cash flow.
Adam Co's experience with Intel and Nvidia shows pitfalls of solely using PE ratio for valuation.
Intrinsic value is calculated by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to present value.
Meta Platforms (META) is valued using a 20-year cash flow projection and a 6.6% discount rate.
Robinhood (HOOD) is valued with an average free cash flow due to inconsistent financials.
Adam Co's intrinsic value calculator is used to find the intrinsic value of stocks.
Meta Platforms (META) is found to be undervalued at $467 per share.
Robinhood (HOOD) is overvalued at $19 per share based on its intrinsic value of $7.
Short-term market prices are driven by emotions and manipulation, not intrinsic value.
Adam Co's personal investment in Meta Platforms (META) and his belief in its long-term value.
The importance of holding undervalued stocks like META for long-term wealth building.
Transcripts
hi this is Adam Co here and today I'm
going to share of you the most important
secret to successful investing you guys
ready so the most important ingredient
to achieving consistent profits in
investing is to buy low and sell high is
to buy cheap and sell expensive now I
know some of you are looking at me right
now and thinking yeah you're a genius of
course I know that but it's e easier set
than done like how do I know when
something's cheap and how do I know when
something's expensive because sometimes
looking at the absolute price can be
very misleading for example let's take a
look at two stocks right now Robin Hood
TI a symbol h o and meta
platforms Robin Hood is currently
selling at
$19 per share and meta platforms is
selling at
$467 per share so which stock is cheaper
and which is more expensive now most
amateur investors would say of course
this is cheaper it's only 19 bucks this
is so expensive $467 it's gone up so
much ever since the last two years well
wrong I'm going to prove to you in this
video that in fact Robin Hood At $19 is
expensive and meta platforms at
$467 is still the cheap why because the
absolute price means nothing unless you
know what is the intrinsic value of the
stock and then base the current share
price on that intrinsic value so this
was a lesson I learned many many years
ago over 16 years ago when I was not as
smart as I am today right so many years
ago I remember that I bought this stock
uh from the Singapore Stock Exchange it
was called L&M it was a construction
company that was selling at three
Singapore 4 cents now why did I buy this
stock because it looks so cheap I said
three cents how low can it
go and at the same time I remember at a
point of time Google listed on the US
exchange was selling at
$200 per share now it so happened that I
I bought both stocks but at the time I
thought that this was cheaper it would
go up even more whereas Google looked a
bit expensive I was a bit
uncertain but over a year later L&M from
three cents dropped to zero it went
bankrupt and I lost all my money
thankfully it was not a lot of money and
Google which I also bought from $200
went up to $1,000 a share and contined
to go up for the next couple of years in
fact today Google before doing the share
split of 20 to1 at today's price would
be worth 3,000
uh $500 per share of course they did a
share split so now it's
$178 share split so looking back I
realized that L&M at three cents was
actually very expensive because the
actual intrinsic value of L&M was
actually close to zero because the
company was losing a lot of money it was
on a verge of bankruptcy and at the same
time Google at $200 was really cheap
because the intrinsic value was actually
about
$600 of which the share price went above
that and then the intrinsic value Rose
over time to now it's in fact a lot
higher in fact I can tell you right now
Google is still the cheap so there are
two major mistakes that retail investors
make in the markets mistake number one
is looking at the absolute price and
thinking that a low price means it's
cheap and a high price means it's
expensive wrong instead you need to look
at the in inic value of the stock which
I'm going to explain in a while how I
calculate it and how I determine whether
the share price is above the intrinsic
value expensive or below the intrinsic
value cheap the second big mistake
investors make is by looking at a very
simple metric like PE ratio to determine
if a stock is cheap or expensive now I
actually made a video just on this it's
called the truth about PE ratios if if
you have not watched that video go watch
that video video after this video but
let me just summarize so PE ratio is a
very simple way to value a stock but it
can be often times very misleading
because PE ratio doesn't take into
account the growth of the company and
doesn't take into account the cash flow
or the free cash flow generated and only
looks at the net profit which sometimes
can be just an accounting entry that can
be very misleading so using PE ratio to
value a stock is like guessing a
person's weight by looking at their
Shadow and it can be very misleading
sometimes you see a big Shadow but a
skinny person uh from a certain angle
for example a year and a half ago in
January 2022 Intel had a very low PE
ratio of about eight times earnings and
Nvidia had a PE ratio of 84 times
earnings and so people who look at PE
ratio would have been misled they would
have thought hey this looks so cheap buy
Intel right this so expensive don't buy
Nvidia short Nvidia if you had followed
the p ratio you would have made the
worst mistake in your life because if
you actually do a proper valuation which
I'm going to teach you how to do in a
short well you would find that at 8times
PE intel was actually very
expensive why because the earnings were
not growing the earnings were declining
and true enough if you bought it at $50
at at time Intel would have dropped
almost by 50% down to about $30 today
and if you bought Nvidia at a point of
time Nvidia was selling at $300 by the
way I bought Nvidia at 150 right so I
was pretty lucky I bought it uh much
later than this actually but anyway even
if you bought at 300 bucks today
Nvidia as of yesterday's close uh after
hours is up to
$1,000 per share because although P of
84 times looks expensive but it was
actually not that expensive because
Nvidia had huge growth potential so what
is the meaning of intrinsic value and
how do we calculate it in the right way
so first understand that when you buy a
stock you are buying a piece of a
business so you got to know what the
business is worth and then divide it by
the number of shares to know what each
share is worth so what is a business
worth now a business is actually a
moneymaking machine so the more money it
makes the more it is worth got it so how
do you know how much money this machine
will make so let me illustrate with an
example over
here let's imagine you have got a
money-making machine and this is a
timeline I'm drawing this is
today this is a year later this is two 2
years later this is 3 years later and
let's imagine that this machine will
print $100
today right here right now so can you
tell me how much this machine is worth
if it prints $100
today it's worth $100 right because if
you buy for $100 the machine gives you
$100 you get back your money okay so the
value of this machine this the intrinsic
value is $100
simple enough enough what if I now told
you that if you bought this machine and
this machine would print $100 only
in a year so one year from now you get
$100 so what is this machine worth is it
worth $100 no because you have to wait a
year to get that 100 bucks so it's worth
less than 100 bucks if you were to buy
the machine today correct so what's the
machine worth today well it depends on
the opportunity cost of your money we
call this the discount rate so in other
words if you had the money to buy the
machine but you invested the money
somewhere else with the same risk what
rate of return would you get so let's
say for argument sake if you put your
money somewhere else you could get a
5% return so that's your discount
rate so what you then do is you take a
$100 which you will get in a year you
divide it by 1 plus the discount rate 1
+ 5% okay which is equal to 100 divide
by 1.05 that gives you
$95 taada so in other words this machine
is worth
$95 okay why because if you had $95
today and you invest it at 5% you get
$100 in a year's time next question what
if I had a money-making machine that I
bought today but it would print $100 in
two years so you wait one year you wait
two years and boom you get your1 $100
what is this machine worth is it worth
$100 no you could wait two years to get
your money so it's worth less than $100
and worth less than 95 bucks
so to get the answer you take a $100 and
divide it by again 1 plus the discount
rate but you have to discount it twice
to get to today's value so you got to
square it okay so what is $100 divided
by 1.05 squared you get
$91 so money received in the future is
worth less than money received today so
whatever money we get in the future we
have to discount it by a discount rate
to the present value okay last question
I promise so if I have a money-making
machine that I buy today that's going to
$100 right now and then another 100 in a
year and another 100 in two years so I
get 100 100 100 then what is this
machine worth today well this machine
will be worth $100
plus
95 plus
91 so this machine the intrinsic value
of the machine will be
$286 per uh $286 right so what has this
got to do with investing in a stock of a
business same thing so for example when
you invest in shares of meta platforms
which is a business you got to figure
out in the next 10 20 years how much
cash is the business going to generate
and you take all that future cash and
you discount it to today's value divide
by the number of shares and Tada you get
the intrinsic value of
mattera and then you compare it to the
share price if the share price is above
that it's overv valued if it's below
that it is undervalued so how do I
actually calculate the intrinsic value
of the entire business of matter or
Robin Hood and calculate the intrinsic
value per share well I use this
intrinsic value calculator that I
developed many many years ago and of
course once you enroll in our value
momentum investing course you can
download this calculator I'm going to
show you how I input the figures right
now so let's begin by valuing meta so
what are we trying to do we're trying to
figure out how much cash meta will
generate in the next 20 years it's like
the money-making machine generating cash
for the next 20 years and then
discounting all that future cash flow to
the present value now if you study for a
CFA in finance they teach you how to uh
project a business cash flow to
perpetuity using a terminal value but I
don't do that I just assume the company
will make money for 20 years and die so
anything more than 20 years it's a bonus
so I'm being very conservative here so
how much money is meta making right now
well if you go on to Yahoo finance for
example you can see the last 12 months
meta generated
49. 5.8 billion in free cash flow so
we're going to use that to project into
the future so let's put that in uh
49 5
18 million which is 49.5 one8 billion so
that is how much cash they are making in
one year all right so how much cash will
they make in the next 20 years so we
will project the growth rate over here
now what growth rate do we use that's
the tricky part if you go to a website
like finis you can see that they are
projecting
meta will be growing at about
30% annually for the next 5 years 30%
growth rate now I'm going to be really
conservative and divide it by
half it's always good to be conservative
so I'm going to assume that mattera is
only going to grow at
15% for the next 5 years and then after
that the following five years the growth
will slow down by half so what's half of
15% 7.5%
so that's the first 5 years of growth
the next 5 years and the last 10 years
I'm just going to assume mattera is
going to grow at 4% which is slightly
above the growth rate of the US economy
okay so that's how I put in these very
conservative growth rates then I've also
got to put in how much cash meta has on
their balance sheet right now you can
check that from the balance sheet
they've got $ 58 billion of cash
then I put in how much debt they have
short-term debt plus long-term debt from
the balance sheet they've got 18 billion
in debt so I put in all these numbers
over there and then I put in the number
of shares that they have because what
this calculator does is it's going to
project all the future cash flow for the
next 20 years it's like the machine
printing money for the next 20 years and
then discounting everything everything
to today's value value and divide it by
the number of shares to find out the
intrinsic value per share now what
discount rate do we use there are many
many uh ways to do it for example Warren
Buffett uses the 10year treasury yield
as his discount rate in a CFA cost
they'll teach you to use the weighted
average cost of capital but I use the
cost of equity so using this table over
here I check the uh the B beta of meta
is
1.2 that measures the volatility of the
stock and based on a 1.2 beta that gives
me a discount rate of
6.6% so I punched that in to the
discount rate and it will give me the
intrinsic value of mattera here there we
are so the final intrinsic value is
$532 as of yesterday's closing price
meta is selling at4
$167 per share and you can see that at
467 meta is still 12% under Valu it
still cheap so even though meta has gone
up from $80 to 467 it's gone up let's
see it's gone
up
400% it's still cheap and that is why I
continue to hold meta in my portfolio so
disclaimer that's right I'm still a
shareholder of meta so I do have some
vested interest right so you can see
this account I've got meta and I'm still
holding it right here it's up about you
know
$84,000 in in profits over there and uh
this other account meta is up uh
$888,000 in profits actually I'm up a
lot more than that but I was stupid
enough to sell some covered calls on
meta so some of my shares got taken away
damn it right but I still have a couple
of shares left which is not too bad I've
got about
I still have about let's see
$186,000 worth of meta shares in this
account and
another
88,000 worth of meta shares in my second
account so total is about 370,000 worth
of meta shares which is okay a decent
position now how about Robin Hood so
Robin Hood looks really cheap based on
its absolute price because it's now
trading at you know
$19.66 and some people may say well it
was at $84 Once Upon a Time looks really
cheap could it get back up there now do
bear in mind that in a short term market
prices are driven purely by emotions and
manipulation so even a business that has
got no intrinsic value that is uh losing
money going to die the share price can
go up because of hype and manipulation
because of some pussycat or like you
know Donald Trump's Media Company where
they're losing so much money the share
price could go up purely based on
manipulation but it is not sustainable
so as an investor if you're looking to
invest for the long run to build your
wealth then you don't want the price to
just go up in the short term based on
hype you want it to go up and keep going
up in the long run all right so that's
when intrinsic value comes into play so
would I buy Robin Hood At today's share
price not that I think the hype is going
to drive up but I think it's worth $119
well let's do a valuation so the first
thing to do is to take a look at how
much cash Robin Hood is making right now
and then we project it to the next 20
years and discount it to present value
so going to Yahoo finance you can see
that for Robin Hood it's actually losing
money for the last 12 months they
actually had a negative free cash flow
of
$295
million and um so what what happens I
mean it's negative we can't put in a
negative figure right and you can see
their free cash flow is very
inconsistent in 2020 it was you know
1 uh 8 billion and then it was minus
968 million uh then it was minus 900
million then it was 1.16 billion so it's
like it's it's like all over the shop
right they make money they lose money
they make money they lose money right so
what do you do in a situation like that
so personally the way I would value it
in such situation is to take the average
free cash flow over the last three or
five years so if you take the average of
The Last 5 Years at all the five years
together and divide by five you get an
average free cash flow
of
66.4
million okay1 66.4 million so if we
punch that into the intrinsic value
calculator 16
6.4 million okay and Robin Hood has
total debt of
4.2 billion in debt they've got 4.7
billion in cash now how about the growth
of the company what is the growth rate
well if you go to uh various websites
you notice there's no projected growth
rate because the company is so
inconsistent there are no analyst that
can make a decent projection for example
if you go to finis you can see that the
next uh 5 years sorry that's mattera
let's go to Robin Hood the next 5 years
the projection is undefined right but
they are projected to grow at
5.97% next year they can only project
one year but beyond that they say we
have got no freaking clue okay and if
you go to another website Guru Focus you
can see again they usually give a future
growth rate undefined so we have no idea
what the growth rate is so inconsistent
so the only thing I can do is to put in
the future Revenue growth rate which uh
in this website they Define it as
17.6% so being very optimistic let's use
17.6% in the growth rate so if we punch
in
17.6% and let's assume they can grow at
17.6% for the next 10 years right let's
put that in and even with a 177% growth
rate uh their intrinsic value comes up
to only
$7 so at today's share price of
$19 it is way overpriced it's overpriced
but by1 71% and that is why I believe
that Robin Hood is actually expensive at
today's price and meta is actually cheap
at today's price now that does not mean
that I can predict that mattera will go
up the next day the next week or the
next next month and Robin Hood is going
to go down the next day the next week
the next month no remember in the short
term anything can happen in the short
term the market is driven by news
emotions and manipulation so sure Robin
Hood could go up in the short term meta
could go down in the long term but in
the long run I rather hold mattera which
I know is undervalued now than holding
Robin Hood over the long run so I do
hope you have found this video
enlightening and if you have do gives a
thumbs up so thank you for watching and
as always me the markets be with you if
you want to catch my latest videos click
on the Subscribe button right now click
on the Bell so you get instant
notifications once I upload my latest
video if you want to check out my online
courses go on to pprof
docomo trade a financial markets and
create an income from all around the
world if you want to join my live we
Academy program go on to wealth Academy
global.com and find out more about how
you can learn investing and trading live
online this Adam coup and may the
markets be with you
Browse More Related Video
Tips Menilai Harga Wajar Saham | feat. Rivan Kurniawan
Stock Market at New Highs? Here's What I'm Buying Part 2 of 2
Stock Market at New Highs? Here's What I'm Buying Part 1 of 2
Stock Multiples: How to Tell When a Stock is Cheap/Expensive
Price to Book Ratio Explained (P/B) | Finance In 5 Minutes!
Come FARE l'ANALISI FONDAMENTALE di un'AZIONE PARTENDO da ZERO | Lezione 6
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)