How Writing My Thesis on League of Legends Made Me Stop Playing

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the limitations of item win rate statistics in League of Legends, particularly for Shen's first legendary item, Heart Steel. They argue that win rates can be inflated due to 'win more' items being purchased in winning situations. The speaker references their master's thesis on improving item statistics and introduces the concept of 'purchase win probability' to provide a more accurate measure of an item's impact. They apply this concept to analyze the win probability added by different items for Shen, concluding that Titanic Hydra is a strong choice in most scenarios. The video also announces a hiatus from YouTube to focus on developing a League of Legends improvement service.

Takeaways

• 📊 Heart Steel has a high win rate as the first legendary item on Shen, but it's considered inflated because it's bought more often in winning games.
• 🎓 The speaker wrote a master's thesis explaining the flaws in item statistics and suggesting improvements.
• 🗣️ Riot Freak, a knowledgeable figure in League of Legends, believes that items not built most frequently have inflated win rates.
• 🧐 The win rate data for items is biased because players make non-random, logic-based decisions influenced by their skill level.
• 🔢 The concept of 'purchase win probability' is introduced to determine the average game situation when an item is bought.
• 📚 The speaker's thesis includes data showing Sunfire Aura's purchase win probability is lower than Heart Steel, indicating it's bought more in losing situations.
• 🏆 'Win probability added' is defined as the increase in win probability when purchasing an item, calculated by subtracting purchase win probability from the win probability at the time of purchase or game end.
• 📈 The data shows Titanic Hydra increases win probability the most for Shen, with a 1.46% increase, while Heart Steel comes in second at 0.66%.
• 🛡️ Sunfire Aura and Hollow Radiance decrease win probability when purchased, suggesting they may not be optimal first items for Shen.
• 🌐 The analysis was conducted on all Shen games at the Emerald tier and above, but the context could be further refined.
• 🌟 The speaker has collaborated with Coach Lless to implement this data analysis, allowing for insights into any champion and item combination.

Q & A

What is the win rate of Heartsteel as the first legendary item on Shen?

Heartsteel has a 54.5% win rate when purchased as the first legendary item on Shen.

Why do some players argue that Heartsteel's win rate is inflated?

Players argue that Heartsteel's win rate is inflated because it is often purchased in winning situations, making it a 'win more' item. This leads to selection bias in the win rate data.

What is the issue with using win rate data to judge the effectiveness of items in League of Legends?

Win rate data can be misleading because it doesn't account for the context in which items are purchased. Selection bias, where skilled players choose items in favorable situations, inflates the win rate data.

What is 'purchase win probability' and how does it differ from win rate?

Purchase win probability measures the likelihood that a team is winning when an item is purchased, offering a more accurate view of the item's situational impact, whereas win rate simply tracks how often games are won when the item is built.

How does the purchase win probability for Heartsteel compare to that of Sunfire Aegis?

The purchase win probability for Heartsteel is 53.66%, while for Sunfire Aegis, it is 50.53%. This means Heartsteel is more often purchased when Shen is already ahead in the game compared to Sunfire Aegis.

What is win probability added, and how is it calculated?

Win probability added measures the impact of an item by subtracting the win probability at the time of purchase from the win probability at the time of sale or the end of the game. This quantifies the item's effect on the team's chances of winning.

Which of Shen’s legendary items provides the highest win probability added?

Titanic Hydra provides the highest win probability added at 1.46%, meaning it has the greatest positive impact on Shen's chances of winning.

Why is Sunfire Aegis and Hollow Radiance not recommended as first items on Shen based on win probability data?

Both Sunfire Aegis and Hollow Radiance actually decrease Shen's win probability when purchased, making them less favorable first item choices compared to Titanic Hydra or Heartsteel.

How does the effectiveness of Titanic Hydra change against physical damage champions?

Against physical damage champions, Titanic Hydra’s win probability added increases to nearly 2%, indicating that it becomes an even stronger choice in these matchups.

What future plans does the video creator have in relation to League of Legends research and content creation?

The creator plans to continue researching League of Legends item statistics with Coach Lless and will be taking a break from YouTube for 80-90 days while working on improving the Coach Lless platform. They aim to return to content creation by December 2024.