Why China and the US are so obsessed with Taiwan | Mapped Out

Summary

The video script delves into the growing tensions between China, Taiwan, and the U.S., explaining the strategic and geopolitical significance of Taiwan. It covers China's military drills and ambitions to reunify Taiwan, the U.S.'s ambiguous policy, and how Taiwan's location and economy, particularly its semiconductor industry, make it crucial for both superpowers. The historical backdrop and Taiwan’s democratic development are also highlighted. The script emphasizes Taiwan’s role as a pawn in a larger global rivalry between China and the U.S., both for control of the region and the future of democracy.

Takeaways

• 💂‍♂️ China is intensifying military drills around Taiwan, with a clear goal of gaining control over the island.
• 🗺 Taiwan’s strategic location between key waterways makes it crucial for both China and the U.S. in terms of trade routes and military access.
• 🪖 The U.S. has committed to defending Taiwan militarily, while expanding its presence in the region and building up cooperation with Japan and the Philippines.
• ⚔ The 'first island chain' strategy by the U.S. is meant to project power near China, and Taiwan sits at the heart of this chain, making it a key player in the U.S.-China rivalry.
• 💻 Taiwan's semiconductor industry, led by TSMC, is crucial to the global economy, as it produces 90% of the world’s most advanced microchips.
• 🔨 China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and aims to reclaim it, while the U.S. and its allies see Taiwan as critical for maintaining a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
• 📜 Historical ties: Tensions stem from China's civil war in the late 1940s, when Nationalists fled to Taiwan after losing to the Communists on the mainland.
• 🎭 Taiwan has evolved into a vibrant democracy with civil liberties, elections, and a distinct identity, but it is caught in the geopolitical crossfire between China and the U.S.
• 🔥 China’s pursuit of Taiwan is not just economic but symbolic, tied to the narrative of overcoming the 'Century of Humiliation' and achieving 'national rejuvenation.'
• 🕊 While many Taiwanese prefer maintaining the status quo, they feel sidelined in the global debate and worry about their autonomy amidst U.S.-China tensions.

Q & A

Why is Taiwan considered a geopolitical flashpoint?

Taiwan's location makes it strategically important as it sits at the heart of key trade routes, including the Taiwan Strait, Miyako Strait, and Bashi Strait, which are vital for global shipping and military access. Its proximity to China also makes it crucial for both Chinese and U.S. military strategies.

What is China’s main objective regarding Taiwan?

China's main objective is to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, viewing it as part of its territory. Beijing sees this as a way to restore national pride and correct what it considers the historical humiliation of losing Taiwan to foreign powers.

How does the U.S. view its role in Taiwan?

The U.S. has an ambiguous policy towards Taiwan, maintaining informal ties and supplying weapons to help defend the island, while officially recognizing Beijing as the legitimate government of China. This stance aims to deter China from invading Taiwan without provoking Beijing.

What are the 'first island chain' and its strategic importance?

The 'first island chain' is a series of U.S. allied territories stretching from Japan, Taiwan, to the Philippines, forming a barrier around China. It allows the U.S. to project power close to China’s shores while making it difficult for China to expand its military reach into the Pacific Ocean.

Why is Taiwan’s semiconductor industry critical to both China and the U.S.?

Taiwan, particularly through TSMC, produces 90% of the world’s most advanced microchips, essential for everything from consumer electronics to advanced military systems. Control over this industry could shift the balance of economic and technological power between the U.S. and China.

What historical events led to the current status of Taiwan?

After losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the Nationalist government fled to Taiwan, while the Communists took over mainland China. Since then, Taiwan has operated as a separate entity, though China views it as a breakaway province.

What is the U.S.’s ‘One China’ policy?

The 'One China' policy is the U.S.’s diplomatic acknowledgment of Beijing as the only legitimate government of China. However, the U.S. maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan, including security assistance, without formally recognizing it as a separate country.

How do people in Taiwan generally feel about their relationship with China?

The majority of Taiwanese prefer to maintain the current status quo with China without formal unification or independence. There is a general desire for peace and autonomy, but opinions vary widely on how best to achieve and maintain this balance.

Why is Taiwan important to Chinese national ideology?

Taiwan's unification with China is seen as a step towards overcoming the 'Century of Humiliation,' a period marked by foreign domination and territorial losses. Reclaiming Taiwan is central to China's national rejuvenation narrative promoted by President Xi Jinping.

What could be the global implications if China were to take control of Taiwan?

If China took control of Taiwan, it would not only shift the regional balance of power but also threaten global supply chains, particularly in semiconductors. It could undermine the credibility of U.S. security commitments in Asia, leading to broader geopolitical instability.

Outlines

00:00

🪖 China's Military Drills and Tensions Over Taiwan

This paragraph discusses the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan, particularly highlighting China's military drills, which are seen as preparation for reunification. It touches on the U.S.'s commitment to Taiwan's defense and its increasing military presence in the region. The paragraph frames Taiwan's strategic location as the source of global interest, while also alluding to the civil war history between the Communists and Nationalists that laid the groundwork for today's conflict.

05:00

⚓ Taiwan's Strategic Importance in the 'Island Chain'

This section explains Taiwan's significance in U.S. and China's strategic military positioning, specifically its role in the 'first island chain' that helps the U.S. project power in the region. It also highlights how the U.S. has been strengthening alliances with countries like Japan and the Philippines to counter China's expansionist goals. China’s efforts to break this chain through naval modernization, including the deployment of its aircraft carriers, are also covered.

10:01

💻 The Economic Battle for Taiwan and TSMC's Influence

This paragraph focuses on Taiwan's economic importance, specifically through its semiconductor manufacturing giant, TSMC, which produces the majority of the world's advanced microchips. Both China and the U.S. are highly dependent on these chips for technological development, making Taiwan economically crucial for both superpowers. The U.S. fears that losing Taiwan to China could have major economic and strategic consequences, while China’s interest in Taiwan is not seen from a purely economic perspective.

15:05

📜 Historical Context: Taiwan and the Century of Humiliation

This section dives into the historical context of China’s view of Taiwan, stemming from the 'Century of Humiliation' when China lost control of the island to foreign powers. It outlines how the 1949 civil war in China led to the split between the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland and the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan. Although most countries recognize the One China policy, Taiwan has developed into a democratic society with its own government, a situation that continues to challenge China's claims over the island.

Keywords

💡Taiwan

Taiwan is a self-governed island with a population of 23 million people, located only 130 km off the coast of mainland China. It is a geopolitical flashpoint due to its strategic location and importance in global trade and technology. Taiwan is viewed by China as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland, while the U.S. sees it as a key partner in its regional strategy, particularly in maintaining the 'first island chain.'

💡First Island Chain

The 'first island chain' refers to a series of islands, including Taiwan, that form a strategic barrier between China and the Pacific Ocean. This concept is crucial for U.S. military strategy, as it allows the U.S. to project power close to China’s shores and limits China’s naval capabilities. Taiwan's location within this chain makes it vital for both U.S. defense and Chinese expansion efforts.

💡One China Policy

The 'One China Policy' is the stance that there is only one China, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as its sole legitimate government. Most countries, including the U.S., officially recognize this policy, meaning they do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. However, the U.S. maintains informal ties with Taiwan and supports it militarily, contributing to the ongoing tension with China.

💡Semiconductors

Semiconductors are a critical component in modern electronics, and Taiwan is home to TSMC, a company responsible for producing 90% of the world's most advanced microchips. These semiconductors are essential for a wide range of technologies, from consumer electronics to military systems. Control over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is a major economic reason why both China and the U.S. are heavily invested in the island's future.

💡U.S. Ambiguous Policy

The U.S. maintains a deliberately ambiguous policy toward Taiwan, ensuring that while it supports the island militarily, it neither formally recognizes its independence nor promises direct military intervention in case of a Chinese invasion. This strategy is meant to deter both a Chinese attack and a Taiwanese declaration of independence, preserving the fragile status quo in the region.

💡China's Century of Humiliation

The 'Century of Humiliation' refers to a period from the mid-19th to mid-20th century when China was weakened by invasions and internal conflicts, losing control of territories like Taiwan. This history is deeply embedded in Chinese state ideology, and reclaiming Taiwan is seen as part of the 'national rejuvenation,' aimed at overcoming this period of subjugation and restoring China’s global power.

💡Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD)

Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) refers to China’s military strategy of preventing the U.S. from intervening in a conflict in the region, particularly over Taiwan. By developing advanced naval capabilities and systems like aircraft carriers, China aims to restrict U.S. military access to the first island chain and beyond, making it harder for the U.S. to defend Taiwan or other regional allies.

💡Bashi and Miyako Straits

The Bashi and Miyako Straits are critical maritime chokepoints located to the south and north of Taiwan, respectively. For China, control over these straits is essential for gaining access to the Pacific Ocean and projecting naval power beyond the first island chain. The U.S., through alliances with Japan and the Philippines, aims to prevent China from dominating these crucial waterways.

💡National Rejuvenation

'National rejuvenation' is a concept promoted by the Chinese Communist Party, particularly under President Xi Jinping, as part of China’s broader goal of becoming a global superpower. Reclaiming Taiwan is seen as a key element of this vision, both to restore China’s territorial integrity and to cement its status as a dominant force in the region and the world.

💡TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)

TSMC is the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturer, responsible for producing the majority of the most advanced microchips used in everything from smartphones to military technology. Both the U.S. and China are highly dependent on TSMC’s products, making Taiwan’s control of this company a central factor in the geopolitical struggle between the two superpowers.

Highlights

Chinese soldiers preparing for battle, reflecting Beijing's show of military force.

China's increasing military drills around Taiwan, drawing ever-closer circles to the island.

The U.S. confirms a military commitment to defend Taiwan if conflict arises.

Taiwan’s strategic location makes it a geopolitical flashpoint between China and the U.S.

China's objective is to gain control over Taiwan, seeing it as a breakaway province.

The U.S. has built military alliances and expanded its presence in the region, including cooperation with Japan and the Philippines.

Taiwan sits at the center of the U.S.'s 'first island chain,' a crucial defense strategy.

Taiwan is a key player in the global semiconductor industry, producing 90% of the world's advanced microchips.

China's People’s Liberation Army threatens to encircle Taiwan, raising tensions.

Taiwan’s significance to China stems from its history, linked to the 'Century of Humiliation' narrative.

China's rising military capabilities, including its third aircraft carrier, are part of efforts to break through U.S. defenses.

Both China and the U.S. have major trade interests in Taiwan, particularly due to its semiconductor industry.

The ambiguity of U.S. policy on Taiwan is meant to prevent conflict while maintaining deterrence.

Most Taiwanese prefer the status quo, but opinions vary on how to handle relations with China and the U.S.

Taiwan's democratic system contrasts sharply with China’s one-party rule, representing a symbolic divide for both superpowers.

Transcripts

Chinese soldiers preparing for battle.

This is what Beijing wants to show the world.

With each military drill, China is drawing ever-closer circles

around Taiwan.

China has a clear goal: to gain control over the island.

China will surely be reunified.

Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan

if it comes to that?

Yes.

That’s the commitment we made.

The United States is building up its military presence in the region.

And is practicing how to sink Chinese ships.

We're not going to come to an agreement over Taiwan.

Wait for the unification to be achieved.

Peacefully, I hope.

Not peacefully, I dread.

But why are these two superpowers so fixated on Taiwan?

What's in it for China and the U.S.?

And how do people in Taiwan feel about it?

It's Taiwan's location that makes it a geopolitical flashpoint.

Taiwan has 23 million inhabitants –

and its main island lies only 130 km away from China's mainland.

These tiny islands right off the coast are also

under Taiwanese control.

And Chinese military drills around the whole of Taiwan

are getting bigger and more frequent.

In recent videos released by China's People's Liberation Army,

Beijing has threatened to encircle the island.

It sees Taiwan as part of its territory and says it's ready

to use force, if necessary, to get it back.

We'll talk more about the history and Taiwan's status later.

For now, you need to know that in the late 1940s,

there was a civil war in China between Communists and Nationalists.

The Communists won and took control of mainland China.

And the Nationalists fled to Taiwan.

That laid the groundwork for today's tensions.

The U.S. has an ambiguous policy towards Taiwan.

Since the late 1970s, it has recognized Communist Beijing

as the only legitimate government of China.

But it has informal ties with Taiwan and is seen

as the island's protector.

Okay.

Let's go back to the map to understand why the U.S.

and China can't quit Taiwan.

In some ways, Taiwan's strategic importance is about three chokepoints

around the island.

To the west, there's the Taiwan Strait.

It's a key trade route for both Beijing and Taiwan –

and also for everybody else.

Almost all the world's biggest container ships pass through here.

To the north, the Miyako Strait.

It runs between Taiwan and these Japanese islands.

And in the south, the Bashi Strait.

It runs between Taiwan and the Philippines.

For China, these two straits on either side of Taiwan

are key strategic gateways to the Pacific Ocean.

Taiwan is in the middle of the Chinese coastline,

which is very important.

This is Victor Gao.

He is a former Chinese diplomat and vice-president of

the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think-tank some say

is close to the Chinese Communist Party.

Taiwan Island faces the Pacific directly, and if Taiwan is occupied

by a foreign country, for example, it interrupts the continuity

of the Chinese coastline and also prevents the Chinese access

directly to the Pacific Ocean.

The U.S. says it has no troops permanently stationed in Taiwan

but the island plays an important role in U.S. strategy.

To understand why, let's look at the military bases in the region.

Here are some of China's main naval bases close to its coast.

And the U.S. has some of its key bases in South Korea,

Japan, and the Philippines.

If you connect the dots, you'll see the U.S. bases form a chain.

Taiwan sits at the heart of what we call in the United States

the 'first island chain'.

David Sacks is an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations,

a think-tank in New York City.

In the past, he worked at the American Institute in Taiwan,

which serves as the de facto U.S. embassy on the island.

If you look at the first island chain,

these are all formal treaty allies of the United States, or

close partners, in the case of Taiwan.

And with that the way it is, the United States can project power close

to China's shores, protect its allies and its interests.

Conversely, it's very difficult for the Chinese military to project power

outside of the first island chain and threaten the United States

physically or our interests in the Indo-Pacific.

To strengthen this 'island chain', the U.S. is expanding

military cooperation with Japan and the Philippines,

which are also wary of what they see as China's expansionist goals.

For example, just last year the U.S. gained access to military bases

in the north of the Philippines.

Right next to the Bashi Strait, one of those Chinese gateways

to the Pacific Ocean we mentioned.

Here you can see American and Philippine troops conducting

exercises in the waters nearby earlier this year.

They even sank an old Chinese-built ship that the Philippine navy

used in the past:

a clear message to Beijing.

And obviously, China is not happy about the U.S. 'island chain' strategy.

Come on!

We are not living in the 19th century.

We are not living in the imperialist century.

Using this outmoded way of thinking as if you can

set up a chain to block, for example, China from accessing

the Pacific Ocean, is ludicrous.

Beijing is rapidly modernizing its navy, in part to be able to

break through the chain of U.S. allies.

For example, with the 'Fujian' aircraft carrier.

Here it is on sea trials earlier this year.

It's China's third aircraft carrier and the biggest ship

in the Chinese navy.

The number one objective here is to keep the United States

out of the region during a conflict.

So, what we call 'anti-access/area denial': Prevent the United States

from being able to defend our treaty allies and partners.

So to sum up: Taiwan's location makes it essential

to both sides as they try to gain the upper hand in the region.

But the rivalry is also about money.

Big money.

Economically, the small island also has an outsize importance

for both China and the U.S. – even though neither officially recognizes

Taiwan as a country.

Both China and the U.S. have significant trade links with Taiwan.

And much of that business comes from just one company:

TSMC –

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

It produces microchips.

Taiwan makes 90 % of the most advanced ones in the world.

Both the U.S. and China are dependent on them.

And so is everybody else.

There's a good chance TSMC's semiconductors are in the device

that you're using to watch this video right now.

They are in new cars,

fridges,

and fighter jets.

Everywhere.

They're needed to develop new AI models.

And U.S. leaders worry that losing Taiwan to China could

permanently shift economic tides against them.

We don't assume that a region under Chinese hegemony would be open

to U.S. trade and investment.

I think that China would reorder the region.

They want the United States to basically supply them

with raw materials that are turned into manufactured goods in China

and then sold all over the world.

And there isn't really a role for the United States or

other industrialized countries in that.

The Chinese economy is already larger than that of the United States

if we use purchasing power parity.

China produced more than 30 million cars in 2023.

The Americans probably produced less than half of that.

So why should anyone believe, they can have some benefit

of picking a fight with China?

No, there is no benefit.

China does not look at Taiwan from an economic

or commercial perspective.

So why is Taiwan so important to Beijing then?

To understand, let's dive back into history.

China lost control over Taiwan during what it calls

the 'Century of Humiliation' –

these caricatures of China being carved up

by various foreign powers might explain why.

From the mid-19th until the mid-20th century,

China was plagued by invasions and internal disputes.

This is important, because that notion

of humiliation still plays a big role in Chinese state ideology even today.

In 1895, Japan took Taiwan from China and made it a colony.

After World War II, the Allies forced Japan to give it back.

But at the time, China was in the middle

of a civil war:

The government of the Republic of China,

or ROC, was led by Nationalists under Chiang Kai-Shek.

Mao Zedong led Communist forces against them.

In 1949, the victorious Communists marched into Beijing and

established the People's Republic of China on the mainland.

The defeated government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan.

That's why there are two governments that call themselves 'China':

one on the mainland, the People's Republic of China, or PRC.

And on Taiwan, the Republic of China, or ROC.

The PRC government in Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province

and says there is only one China.

Even though they have never actually been in charge in Taiwan.

Most of the world accepts this One China policy, including the U.S.

They don't recognize Taiwan as an independent country.

Wait.

So why is the U.S. supporting Taiwan then?

There is also a history to that.

After the Civil War, the U.S. initially saw

the Nationalist government in Taiwan as the only real China, rejecting

the Communist government on the mainland.

U.S. soldiers were even stationed in Taiwan under a common defense pact.

The change came in the 1970s.

The U.S. sought closer relations with Beijing.

That meant closing the U.S. embassy in Taiwan and pulling out U.S. troops.

Still, informal ties persisted, like that de facto embassy.

And the U.S. still guarantees to sell Taiwan weapons.

But they have a deliberately ambiguous policy

on whether they would defend Taiwan.

It's meant to prevent China from invading and

Taiwan from declaring independence.

But that strange limbo has been the status quo in Taiwan for decades.

And it's created realities on the ground.

Taiwan developed from a Nationalist authoritarian regime

into one of the strongest democracies in the region.

There are elections,

a free press,

and civil liberties.

Taiwan was first in Asia to legalize same-sex-marriage.

This year a progressive party was reelected for

a third term, vowing to maintain that tense status quo.

DW's Taiwan correspondent Yuchen Li can give us a sense

of things on the ground.

Here in Taiwan, the atmosphere is very different

from what you might read in the headlines.

The tension has become part of daily life.

One key reason is that people in Taiwan have been living under

the threat of the Chinese Communist Party for many decades.

The majority of the Taiwanese prefer to maintain

the status quo with China, but how to do so is a rather polarized debate.

If China wants to bully us, at least we still have the U.S. and Japan.

They are our friends.

I've always been skeptical of America.

But we have no choice, if we can't get stronger or have enough forces.

It's tricky.

We should have a friendly relationship with both of them.

It's always been like this.

Ever since the founding of the country, we've been caught up

in this drama.

But one thing is clear for many Taiwanese –

Taiwan's voice is usually drowned out.

Amid the U.S.-China rivalry, many feel that Taiwan is only 'a pawn'

in the game, and no matter what comes next,

the island should have the right and autonomy to decide its own fate.

But there is one more factor that stands in the way of that.

Taiwan represents something for both superpowers.

Taiwan has embraced the U.S. worldview, which promotes

democracy and capitalism.

China is a one-party system and a socialist market economy.

And a major Chinese Communist Party narrative centers on Taiwan.

Remember the Century of Humiliation we mentioned, when China lost Taiwan?

Well Chinese President Xi Jinping sees bringing Taiwan back into

the fold as an important step in overcoming that humiliation.

This is part of the so-called 'national rejuvenation',

a revival of the Chinese nation as a great power.

With Xi Jinping, I think, you did see some impatience.

Xi Jinping has clearly put himself forward as a leader of, you know,

world historic importance.

He views himself in a very similar way, I think,

to Vladimir Putin, that he's just not a run-of-the-mill leader.

He's transformative.

No one, no country, no single human being will be able to block

the peaceful reunification of China or the non-peaceful

reunification of China.

So, we should all call on the United States: "Don't play with fire!"

But for the U.S., supporting Taiwan also means keeping up

key alliances in the region and promoting democracy.

If China were to invade and annex Taiwan, we would see

that democracy extinguished, and it could send chilling effects

to democracies around the world.

You would have deep questions being asked in South Korea,

Japan, and the Philippines on whether they can rely on

the United States for their security.

Because of where Taiwan is and what it represents, neither China

nor the U.S. isable back down.

And the rest of us are stuck watching the superpower rivalry play out.