How to Pitch a Stock – and Find An "Angle" at the Last Minute [Tutorial]
Summary
TLDRThis tutorial video offers a comprehensive guide on crafting a stock pitch, detailing the structure, idea generation, and research process. It emphasizes starting with a clear recommendation, providing company background, and explaining investment thesis. The video also advises on selecting a company with a simple business model and upcoming catalysts. It suggests using resources like Finviz for screening and conducting real-life research to refine the pitch, ensuring it's concise and compelling.
Takeaways
- 📈 Start a stock pitch with a clear recommendation (long or short) and an investment thesis explaining why the market's evaluation is incorrect.
- 🏭 Match your pitch to the firm's strategy and industry focus, and choose an industry you're familiar with to increase the pitch's relevance.
- 🔍 Use screening tools like Finviz to find mid-sized companies with a market cap between 1 to 10 billion dollars that have shown divergence from industry trends.
- 📊 Focus on companies with simple financials and a few key drivers to simplify the research and valuation process.
- 🔑 Look for companies with upcoming catalysts within 6 to 12 months, such as product launches or strategic changes, to provide a clear timeline for potential stock price movement.
- 📚 Conduct research using annual reports, investor presentations, and press releases to understand the company's operations and industry position.
- 💼 Build a simple Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with projections based on units sold, average selling price, or market share to estimate the company's value.
- 🤝 Engage in real-life research by speaking with industry insiders, suppliers, or customers to gain insights that can strengthen your pitch.
- 📉 Address risk factors and propose mitigants, such as using options or stop-loss orders, to show how potential losses can be managed.
- ⏱ When time is limited, prioritize research that can be completed quickly, focusing on key financials and industry trends, to prepare a compelling pitch.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the tutorial video?
-The main focus of the tutorial video is to discuss how to pitch a stock, covering the stock pitch guide, company selection, and research process.
Where can viewers find templates and the full guide mentioned in the video?
-Viewers can find templates and the full guide on the M&I blog post located at mergersandacquisitions.com/stock-pitch-guide.
What is the basic structure of a stock pitch as outlined in the video?
-The basic structure of a stock pitch includes a recommendation, investment thesis, company background, investment thesis explanation, catalysts, valuation and past performance analysis, risk factors and mitigants, and a summary of recommendations.
Why is it important to match the industry to the hedge fund strategy when preparing a stock pitch?
-Matching the industry to the hedge fund strategy is important because it ensures that the pitch aligns with the firm's investment preferences, increasing the likelihood of a successful pitch.
What is the recommended market cap range for mid-sized companies when screening for stock pitches?
-The recommended market cap range for mid-sized companies when screening for stock pitches is between 1 to 10 billion dollars.
How does the video suggest narrowing down a list of potential companies for a stock pitch?
-The video suggests narrowing down a list of potential companies by focusing on those with a clear divergence from stock price trends, mid-sized market caps, a few key drivers, relatively pure-play businesses, clean and simple financial statements, and clear catalysts in the next six to twelve months.
What are some methods to research a company and its industry as suggested in the video?
-Some methods to research a company and its industry include reviewing annual and interim reports, investor presentations, recent press releases, and conducting real-life research by speaking with people in the industry.
What is the recommended approach for building a DCF analysis in a stock pitch?
-The recommended approach for building a DCF analysis in a stock pitch is to project revenue and expenses beyond simple percentage growth rates and margins, aiming for around 100 to 300 rows in Excel, and to include cases like the base case, upside case, and downside case.
Why is it beneficial to speak with people in real life for a stock pitch?
-Speaking with people in real life is beneficial for a stock pitch because it provides insights from industry professionals, suppliers, customers, and others who can offer unique perspectives and information that may not be available through public financial statements or reports.
What is the significance of catalysts in a stock pitch and how are they identified?
-Catalysts are significant in a stock pitch because they are events or developments that can cause the market to reevaluate a stock's value. They are identified by looking for upcoming events such as product launches, acquisitions, earnings announcements, or strategic changes that could impact the stock price.
Outlines
📈 Introduction to Stock Pitching
The paragraph introduces a tutorial video focused on teaching how to pitch a stock. It mentions the accompanying blog post 'Stock Pitch Guide' available on the M&I website, which offers templates for creating a stock pitch. The video aims to expand on the written guide, with a particular emphasis on idea generation for those who have limited time to prepare for an interview at an investment firm. The tutorial is structured into three parts: basic stock pitch structure, idea generation, and research and valuation process. The basic structure includes a recommendation slide, company background, investment thesis, catalysts, valuation, risk factors, and a summary. The video promises to provide samples and templates to help viewers understand and create effective stock pitches.
🔍 Idea Generation for Stock Pitching
This section delves into the process of idea generation for stock pitches, especially when time is limited. It advises first understanding the strategy and industry preferences of the firm for which the interview is scheduled. The speaker suggests looking at the firm's website, asking insiders, or researching their SEC filings to identify their investment strategies. The approach involves selecting an industry that aligns with the firm's strategy and then using Finviz to screen for mid-sized companies within that industry. The focus should be on companies with a market cap of 1 to 10 billion dollars that have shown a divergence from the overall market trend in their stock prices. The aim is to identify companies that may present interesting investment opportunities and are suitable for a stock pitch.
📊 Screening and Selecting Companies for Stock Pitch
The paragraph discusses the process of screening and selecting companies for a stock pitch. It emphasizes focusing on companies with simple financial statements and a few key drivers, making them easier to analyze and present in a pitch. The speaker uses examples to illustrate how to narrow down a list of companies by eliminating those that are too large, too small, or have complex financials. The goal is to find companies with clear catalysts in the next six to twelve months, such as acquisitions or major product launches, which can serve as a basis for the stock pitch. The examples given include Barnes Group, Trymax Corporation, and Standex Corporation, with a focus on their financial statements and business segments. The paragraph concludes with a recommendation to choose companies that are changing in some way and have clear catalysts, making them easier to discuss in a pitch.
📚 Research and Valuation Process for Stock Pitch
The final paragraph outlines the research and valuation process for creating a stock pitch. It suggests starting with obtaining the company's annual and interim reports, investor presentations, and recent press releases. The speaker advises building a simple discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis in Excel, projecting revenue and expenses, and aiming for a model with around 100 to 300 rows. The paragraph also recommends using Finviz or Google Finance for public comparables analysis and conducting real-life research by speaking with suppliers, customers, or others in the industry to gain insights. The goal is to incorporate these findings into the analysis to support the investment thesis. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing the importance of this research in identifying the company's potential, catalysts for change, and the overall investment opportunity presented by the stock pitch.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Stock Pitch
💡Idea Generation
💡Research and Valuation
💡DCF Analysis
💡Investment Thesis
💡Catalysts
💡Risk Factors
💡Market Cap
💡Financial Statements
💡Strategy and Industry Focus
Highlights
Introduction to a tutorial video on pitching stocks and discussing the stock pitch guide.
The video corresponds to an M&I blog post, 'Stock Pitch Guide', providing templates and the full guide.
Discussion on expanding the article to focus on idea generation for stock pitches.
Explanation of the basic stock pitch structure, including recommendation, investment thesis, and risk factors.
Providing examples and templates for the stock pitch structure.
Guidance on idea generation for stock pitches when time is limited.
Advice on researching the strategy and industry focus of the firm you're interviewing with.
Using FinVis to screen for mid-sized companies in the industry that match the firm's strategy.
Focusing on companies with clear divergence from stock price trends as a potential pitch.
Narrowing down the list by selecting companies with simple financial statements and clear business models.
Selecting companies with only a few key drivers for easier analysis in a stock pitch.
Identifying companies with clear catalysts in the next six to twelve months for stock pitch ideas.
The importance of researching the company and industry through annual reports, investor presentations, and press releases.
Building a simple DCF-based valuation for the stock pitch.
Using FinVis or Google Finance for public comps to save time in the research process.
Incorporating real-life research by speaking with industry professionals and incorporating their insights.
Summary of the tutorial on how to find, screen, and pitch stocks with limited time.
Transcripts
[Music]
[Music]
welcome to another tutorial video this
time we're going to be discussing how to
pitch a stock and cover our stock pitch
guide as well as the company selection
and research process this video
corresponds to an M and I blog post
called stock pitch guide you can go
visit it down below on the screen just
mergers and acquisitions comm / stock -
pitch - guide and you can get some
templates there the full guide and text
we're going to expand on the article
here and focus more on the idea
generation part and in particular how
you can come up with ideas for stock
pitches and screen companies when it's
the last minute and you don't have much
time left
so the plan for this tutorial will be to
cover the basic stock pitch structure
first which you're probably already
familiar with but we'll go through it
quickly and give you a few samples and
templates then in part two we'll talk
about idea generation how can you find
ideas if it's the last minute and you
only have two or three days or maybe
five six or seven days to prepare for an
interview at a hedge fund or asset
management firm and then a part three
we'll discuss the research and valuation
process how you can do it efficiently
how to find your angle and how to get
the key inputs for your stock pitch
including the complexity of the model
and valuation analysis that you come up
with and the ideal length and how to
make it complex enough without going
overboard and coming up with something
that takes too much time to research and
finish well let's go to part one first
and talk about the basic stock pitch
structure now this is something that we
covered extensively on the site over the
years so you can go through and look at
the text version of this as well but you
always want to start a stock pitch with
a recommendation where you long or short
the company and you say what it should
be worth according to your analysis in
our example on the site for Jazz
pharmaceuticals we have a recommendation
slide here we short the company we
present our investment thesis and
explain why the market is wrong about
this evaluation and then give what we
think it should be worth why we think
its stock price will change what the
risk factors are and how we can mitigate
some of those risks then in the next
section you give the company background
you describe its products services
market its approximate revenue ebody
market cap at valuation multiples for
Jazz pharmaceuticals we do
just that we also include a price volume
chart over the past year from before the
stock pitch for good measure and we
explain a little bit about what the long
term projections and our base case
scenario here look like then in part 3
you go through the investment thesis and
you explain why the stock is mispriced
and why the market hasn't factored this
in and adjusted to the correct price so
here we have three main reasons the
threat of generics to one of the
companies key product lines we think the
company's ability to raise prices will
be quite limited and we think that some
of its new experimental products or
drugs will have lower than expected
potential in the next part you have
catalysts key events in the next 6 to 12
months that will cause the market to
realize its mistake and result in a
pricing correction so for Jazz
pharmaceuticals we have the FDA approval
of some of those generic drugs we have
the fact that when the company announces
earnings everyone's going to realize
that it is simply not raising prices on
its key drugs as much as it did in the
past and then we also have early sales
results from some of these more
experimental and earlier stage products
then in part 5 you go through the
valuation and paste in your DCF analysis
comparable companies and whatever other
analysis you have to show why the stock
is undervalued or overvalued you can see
our example here for jazz we have a
football field valuation chart we have a
summary of our assumptions for the DCF
and we also have some sensitivity tables
showing why we think the company is at
best appropriately valued right now and
actually significantly overvalued
according to our views and then we go
through the risk factors and mitigant
and how we could reduce some of the risk
or limit our losses if we're completely
wrong and you can see it here we
basically reverse the catalyst and say
that maybe the generics will enter later
than expected maybe some of the new
drugs will perform better than expected
and maybe some other products will gain
positive clinical trial data and we can
mitigate some of these risks with call
options or stop-loss or stop limit
orders and overall we say that we limit
our potential losses here to about 15 to
20 percent and then at the end we just
give us summary and show all of our
recommendations here once again so
that's a basic structure for a stock
pitch again you can go
the entire M&I article and read through
all this in text format and get some
screenshots of everything for a couple
different companies here as well what I
want to focus on doubt is the idea
generation process what if you leave a
few days you're not following the
markets or specific companies closely
and you need an idea for an upcoming
interview as soon as possible the first
step in this process is you need to
figure out what strategy the firm you're
going to interview with uses and then
which industries it likes and does not
like there are a couple ways you can do
that you can of course to try to look on
their website you can ask someone there
about their strategies you can try to
find their holdings and SEC filings so
there are a couple different ways you
can do this but you need to figure this
out first because for example if you're
going to interview with a value oriented
long-only fund that likes industrial
companies then you want to focus on
companies in industrials or related
sectors so maybe manufacturing or
chemicals or even retail but something
that is a bit more mature and is based a
little bit more on hard assets you don't
want to go in and pitch a short for an
overpriced biotech startup if the fund
only does long investments and focuses
on undervalued companies and then you
want to match the industry to something
that lends itself to the hedge fund
strategy or pick an industry that you
know something about so let's keep going
with this industrials example and we'll
say industrial goods for the sector and
then industrial equipment for the
industry and I'll go on fin vis right
here and for sector I'll say industrial
goods and then for industry I will say a
dish industrial equipment and components
so we have those two for the screening
criteria and so we get a set of 12
companies based on that now how do you
screen and narrow down this list once
you have the set of 12 companies first
off you want to focus on mid-sized
companies in the industry ideally ones
that are in roughly the 1 to 10 billion
dollar market cap range if you're
working with us-based companies if
you're doing this based on revenue maybe
something with hundreds of millions of
revenue to perhaps the low billions so
you get mid-sized companies in the
industry you don't want to pick giant
conglomerate companies you also don't
want to pick micro cap companies because
they both have different problems and
tend to be harder to use in stock
pictures
you also want to look for companies
where there's been a clear divergence
from the stock price trends overall over
the past few months so maybe the entire
market has gone up but one company has
stayed the same or even decreased or
it's the opposite and the entire market
has gone down but one company has stayed
the same or gone up so with this example
for our industrial screen here first off
we'd probably eliminate the top two
companies at the top one is in the UK so
it's not great if we're in the u.s. the
other company is just too big and then
we'd probably also eliminate some of
these companies at the bottom because
they're well below a billion dollars in
terms of market cap which leaves us with
roughly this set of companies five six
or seven or so in the middle if we look
at these companies share prices for the
most part they have increased pretty
substantially in the past three four
five six months something in that time
range however there are a few that stand
out as not having increased by that much
one clear example of that is Barnes
group right here its stock price fell
pretty dramatically the year before and
then even this year it stayed basically
the same even as everything else in the
sector has gone up the other one that
stands out is try mask corporation here
it did increase the year prior to this
but this year it's been roughly flat
except for a quick increase right in the
beginning in January and then if we want
to expand this a little bit more we
could also look at Standex corporation
which has been relatively flat so far
this year so if you look at all these
and you look at something like this
where maybe the company decreased a lot
last year stayed flat this year even as
the sector as a whole has gone up you
get some ideas for companies that may
not quite be following trends and might
be a bit different from everything else
in the industry so as I say we think
that Barnes Group Standex group and tri
mass here are probably the best bets for
our initial screen now the next two
steps steps four and five because I'm
grouping them together are that you want
to find companies with only a few key
drivers and relatively pure-play
businesses as well as clean and simple
financial statements so you don't want a
company with 20 different product lines
where each one is say 5% of the revenue
you want a company that has maybe two to
three major segments and well-defined
key drivers
and you don't want a company that has
say 50 items on its cashflow statement
you want relatively short and simple
financial statements so if we look at
all these companies start with starting
with Barnes Group its income statement
here is fairly simple and
straightforward if we go down to its
balance sheet everything here is also
pretty straightforward these are all the
standard items you'd expect cash debt
equity receivables inventory nothing too
crazy here and it's cash flow statement
we'd say is also pretty straightforward
with exactly the items that you'd
normally expect for a standard company
if we go to try mass again it's balance
sheet is pretty standard and
straightforward seem for its income
statement and moving down its cash flow
statement looks a little bit more
complicated on the surface but it's
actually not that much more complex than
Barnes groups and then finally if we
look at stand X its balance sheet is
similar maybe a little bit more
complicated its income statement also
looks fairly straightforward and then if
we go down its cash flow statement is
also straightforward although there are
some more items here maybe it's a little
bit more complex than the others however
the real point here is that the
financial statements are not that much
different but Standex appears to have
more segments than the others and that
is going to make the research and
valuation process it take more time to
illustrate what I mean here let's just
go up and do a search for one of the
numbers in that screenshot so if you
look at a summary of the company's
operations they have a food service
equipment segment and a grieving segment
and engineering technology segment and
an electronics and hydraulics segment
two separate segments there actually and
there are some that are bigger than
others the food service equipment one is
the dominant segment but it's not as if
one segment has 90% of the company's
revenue it's more like maybe close to a
forty to fifty percent split for the
food service equipment one so we have
quite a few segments here by contrast if
we look at something like the Barnes
Group for example and
let's just go down to where they have
their split I'm searching for aerospace
because I know already that's what one
of the major segments is they basically
have two segments Industrial and
aerospace and if you go down a little
bit and you look at financial
performance by business segments they
have industrial they have the sales and
operating profit and operating margin
and then if you go down they have
aerospace and the sales and operating
profit and operating margin and beyond
that they don't really have much of
anything so they just have two simple
segments right here and if you go to try
mass you'll see something similar so
based on this quick screen we'd probably
narrow this further to barn troop and
try mess barns group is two main
segments try mass has three main
segments and two now the final step to
pick a winner here and to decide is that
you generally want a favored companies
with clear catalysts in the next six to
twelve months such as an announced
acquisition or divestiture
a major product launch a major expansion
plan a strategic change something like
that
and if we go and look at try masses
investor presentations and other sources
we do see something that looks promising
at first glance a recent acquisition
announcement for this company plastic
srl which is based in Italy however if
we keep reading we see that its annual
revenue is only about twelve million
here and if we look at try masses
revenue for the company as a whole it's
close to nine hundred million so no
matter how you slice it a ten or twelve
million revenue company is just not
going to contribute that much to
something that is almost a hundred times
the Sophos based on that we would say
that try mass here is probably not the
best one if you look through there are a
couple other potential catalysts but
overall we think that the Barnes Group
is probably a better candidate for a
couple of reasons if you look in their
investor presentation for example one
key slide here is that they give their
major portfolio shifts over the last
several years and they explain where
they were before and then where they are
now which implies that the company is
changing by a good amount also if you
look throughout this you'll see that
there are some pretty clear references
to their growth areas for example if we
could do a search for automation right
here they list it as one of their key
growth drivers and as one of the key
macro factors and that if we keep going
they say that they've launched
automation in 2018 establish fortune
motion control in 2019 so these are
clearly segments on the rise and if we
keep going you'll see that here
automation is only about 1% of revenue
right now but it's growing very quickly
by double digits which means that
something relating to the company here
is changing the other thing with Barnes
group is that they do have high exposure
to aerospace about 34% of its revenue
comes from it just before I created this
tutorial there was big news about Boeing
and several fatal accidents fortunately
company to ground their 737 max aircraft
right after those announcements the
Barnes groups share price fell by about
10 percent when the aircraft was
grounded presumably because investors
know this and they're worried about
their exposure to Boeing but if you look
later on in the presentation you'll see
that yes they have some exposure they
are making some parts relating to the
737 max but it's actually much less of a
focus for the company then all the other
Airbus and Boeing aircraft so we could
make some type of argument that the
company might have been unfairly
penalized for its aerospace exposure
here that's part two the idea selection
process and how we came to the
conclusion of using the Barnes group
here let's now go through the research
and valuation process you want to do
four basic things here first is research
the company in the industry by getting
the annual and interim reports the
latest investor presentation and recent
press releases then you can build a
simple DCF based valuation don't go
overboard you want to project revenue
and expenses beyond simple percentage
growth rates and margins maybe go down
to units sold average selling price or
market share times market size and aim
for around 100 to 300 rows in Excel if
you've seen our DCF example for steel
dynamics where we split up its sales
into three main segments and a couple
smaller ones something like this would
be reasonable for a stoppage where we
get up to around 150 or so rows here you
don't want 5,000 rows you want something
in that range we'd say a hundred to
three hundred rows in Excel for your
projections and DCF analysis and then
for the public comps you could use fin
vis or Google Finance to save time there
take a look at our comparable company
analysis tutorial for more on that one
and then you also want to do some real
life research so speak with people in
real life for a few hours
find some suppliers customers others on
LinkedIn email them and offer your
insights as an investor into their
company in exchange for maybe 10 minutes
of their time to answer a few questions
that you might have had about the
company or the industry as a whole so
here we already have the reports and we
actually already have the peer companies
because when we did our fin visit screen
this also gave us some of the peer
companies that we could use so we
already have that part done we just need
to pull the financial information for
them our first step would be to set up
the DCF analysis and make the main
splits between an aerospace and
industrial on a revenue and operating
income basis and then we go beyond that
if possible maybe it would be unit Sol
maybe would be market share maybe you'll
be the backlog growth and the backlog
delivered it can be a little bit tricky
in this sector to go below revenue
growth and operating margin by product
line but with enough research and going
through the filings and doing some
online research for the market we might
be able to do that and then for the real
life research borange group mentions
General Electric rolls-royce and United
Technologies in its filings all those
seem pretty important so we probably
start there and then start looking for
some possible contacts on LinkedIn and
if we ran out of time
maybe we can only speak with one or two
people or contact one or two people but
it's still a whole lot better than
nothing the angle here would probably be
something to do with the market over
penalizing it because of its exposure to
Boeing maybe under estimating its
automation segment and maybe also under
estimating its margin expansion
potential if the automation segment
really takes off presumably its margins
will go up because automating tasks is
cheaper than hiring humans to complete
them or we could take the opposite view
and maybe we should say and maybe we
will say that it should follow by even
more than it already has
it just depends on the results of this
process and what we find when we speak
with people and do our market research
the catalysts here could be backlog
updates announcements relate to Boeing
earnings announcements that have some of
the automation segment results and maybe
potentially acquisitions as well with
the valuation we can't really say
anything because this was intended to be
a quick tutorial showing you what to do
with limited time
setting up a whole DCF here would take
more time and I don't have it and I'm
not going to show it here but you would
do that and draw some conclusions
ideally building in cases like the base
case upside case and downside case to
reflect your views what the market is
thinking and then what you think will
actually happen that's it for a tutorial
to do a quick summary now the stock
pitch structure is that you always want
to start with your recommendation long
or short what the company should
actually be worth why it's miss price
right now and why it's going to change
then you give some company background
information then you go into your
investment thesis and explain why it's
mispriced and why others have overlooked
it then you go into the valuation and
explain what you think it should be
worth then you give the catalyst explain
why its stock price will change over the
next six to twelve months and then you
give the risk factors and explain how to
mitigate some of the risks for the idea
to generation we recommend picking an
industry that matches the strategy and
industry focus of the firm you're
interviewing with and also something
that you ideally know a little bit about
once you have that then you can go on a
site like fin vis and screen for
mid-sized companies in the industry
focus on ones that only have a few key
drivers and relatively clean to
financial statements and relatively easy
to understand businesses once you have
that then look for companies that have
clear catalysts in the next section
twelve months and are changing in some
way because those will be better and
easier to discuss and then finally for
the research and valuation process get
the company's annual interim reports a
few recent press releases start building
a simple TCF and valuation analysis
using the p r-- company data that you
found before on sites like fin vis and
use a very simple template and then go
out and try to speak with people in real
life if you can and incorporate some of
those views into your analysis that's it
for tutorial on stock pitches how to
find companies with limited time screen
for them and then pick the best one
hopefully now you know a bit more about
this process and what to do if you're in
this position and you need to come up
with a stock pitch very quickly
Browse More Related Video
How to write a Review Paper | How to write a Review Article | Step-by-step process explained
What's in an Equity Research Report?
Viral Video के लिए Research करने का सही तरीका | How to Research for YouTube Videos
CÓMO REDACTAR LOS OBJETIVOS DE INVESTIGACIÓN PASO A PASO CON EJEMPLO (PROYECTO DE INVESTIGACIÓN).
MBAS906 Business Analytics Research Consultancy workshop
(FULL LESSON) Paano gumawa ng RRL | How to write better RRL (Review of Related Literature)
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)