‘Easier road’: Donald Trump has a ‘lead on’ Kamala Harris to electoral victory

Summary

With seven weeks until the US presidential election, early voting has begun in Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in national polls, but the race's outcome hinges on swing states and their local issues. Swing state voters prioritize the economy, immigration, democracy, and crime, with varying trust in each candidate to handle these issues. Despite Harris's favorability lead, Trump is trusted more on the economy and immigration. The election's crux lies in how these factors interact in local areas to secure the necessary 270 Electoral College votes.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ Early voting has begun in Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota for the US presidential election.
• 📊 Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in national polls, but this does not guarantee an Electoral College victory.
• 📈 The key to winning the presidency lies in securing 270 Electoral College votes, often decided by local issues in swing states.
• 🔍 Swing states are categorized into three regions: Southeast, Northeast (Rustbelt), and Southwest, each with distinct local concerns.
• 📊 Voters in swing states prioritize the economy, immigration, democracy, polarization, and crime as their top concerns.
• 📊 Donald Trump leads in trust on the economy and immigration, while trust on crime is split, and Kamala Harris leads on threats to democracy.
• 📊 Kamala Harris has a significant lead in overall favorability, but the challenge is translating that into swing state support.
• 🤔 The importance of the electoral college as a buffer in the democratic process is highlighted, emphasizing the need for candidates to secure 270 votes.
• 🗣️ The discussion questions Kamala Harris's lack of a primary win and her association with President Biden's perceived cognitive decline.
• 🌎 The script suggests that Kamala Harris's stance on Israeli-Palestinian issues could impact her support among certain demographic groups.
• ⏳ With seven weeks left until the election, the race is still considered too close to call, with the potential for various factors to sway the outcome.

Q & A

In which three states are the polls already open for the US presidential election?

The polls are already open in Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota.

Who is currently leading in the national polls according to the script?

Kamala Harris is edging ahead of Donald Trump in the national polls.

What is the significance of the 'plus three' lead mentioned in the script?

The 'plus three' lead signifies that Kamala Harris is three percentage points ahead of Donald Trump in the national polls.

What is the main goal for a candidate to win the US presidential election?

A candidate needs to secure 270 Electoral College votes to win the US presidential election.

What are the three main regions referred to as 'swing states' in the script?

The three main regions referred to as 'swing states' are the Southeast, the Northeast (Rustbelt), and the Southwest.

According to the script, what are the top concerns for voters in swing states?

The top concerns for voters in swing states are the economy, immigration, threats to democracy, polarization, and crime.

Which candidate do the swing state voters trust more on the issue of the economy?

Swing state voters trust Donald Trump more on the issue of the economy.

What is the main challenge for Kamala Harris according to the political analyst in the script?

The main challenge for Kamala Harris is that she has not won a single primary vote and is largely unknown to the public beyond her speeches at the Democratic National Convention and her debate comments.

What does the political analyst suggest about the Democratic Party's leadership and their handling of President Biden?

The political analyst suggests that the Democratic Party's leadership, including the Obamas, Clintons, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer, have driven President Biden from the White House due to his inability to stay on message and be trusted.

What is the analyst's view on the impact of Kamala Harris's stance on Israeli actions in Gaza on her electoral prospects?

The analyst believes that Kamala Harris may face a backlash from Muslim, Arab, and Palestinian voters in states like Michigan for not condemning Israeli excesses in Gaza, which could negatively impact her electoral prospects.

How does the political analyst think the Democratic Party's actions towards Donald Trump might influence the election?

The political analyst suggests that the Democratic Party's efforts to keep Donald Trump out of office, including impeachment votes and investigations, have been unsuccessful and may have strengthened his position as the 'last man standing'.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ Early Voting and Polls in US Presidential Election

The script discusses the early voting process in Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and the national polls showing Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump. It emphasizes the importance of local issues in swing states and how they could affect the election outcome. The script also highlights the key policy areas that voters in swing states care about, such as the economy, immigration, democracy, polarization, and crime. It contrasts the national favorability of Kamala Harris with the trust voters place in Donald Trump for handling specific issues like the economy and immigration.

05:00

🕵️‍♂️ Deep Dive into Kamala Harris's Role and Strategy

This paragraph delves into questions about Kamala Harris's awareness of President Biden's cognitive state and her potential role in the Democratic Party's leadership. It speculates on her lack of primary votes and her reliance on Biden's support. The discussion touches on the influence of prominent Democrats and the party's strategy, suggesting that Biden was pushed out and Harris was maneuvered into a position of power. The paragraph also raises concerns about Harris's ability to appeal to a broader American audience beyond California, given her background as a prosecutor, and anticipates potential challenges she may face from various voter groups, including those affected by foreign policy decisions.

10:00

📺 Wrapping Up the Discussion

The final paragraph of the script is a brief closing remark, indicating the end of the discussion with the political analyst. It suggests that the conversation will continue as the election approaches and more information becomes available.

Keywords

💡US Presidential Election

The US Presidential Election is the process by which the President of the United States is elected. It is a quadrennial event and a cornerstone of American democracy. In the script, the election is central as it discusses the early voting in states like Virginia and the national polls that indicate the candidates' standings.

💡Polls

Polls refer to the surveys conducted to gauge public opinion on various matters, including political candidates. In the context of the video, polls are used to measure the popularity and lead of the candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, in the upcoming presidential election.

💡Electoral College

The Electoral College is a group of electors required by the U.S. Constitution to form every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president. The script emphasizes the importance of securing 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency, highlighting the difference between popular vote and electoral vote.

💡Swing States

Swing States, also known as battleground states, are those that could vote for either the Democratic or Republican candidate. The script discusses how candidates must appeal to the local issues and concerns of voters in these states, which are crucial for securing the necessary electoral votes.

💡Local Issues

Local issues are specific concerns that are relevant to a particular region or community. The video script mentions that while the U.S. is a large country, the election is decided by local issues in local places, indicating the importance of tailoring campaigns to regional concerns.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. In the script, inflation is noted as a significant concern for voters, influencing their trust in candidates' abilities to manage the economy.

💡Immigration

Immigration policies and their management are a key topic in the script, especially in the context of swing states like the Southwest where border control and immigration are pressing issues. The candidates' stances on immigration are critical to their appeal in these regions.

💡Threats to Democracy

This concept refers to perceived dangers to the democratic process and institutions. The script suggests that voters in swing states are concerned about such threats, and their trust in candidates to safeguard democracy is a deciding factor in the election.

💡Crime

Crime and public safety are mentioned as top concerns for voters in the swing states. The script indicates that trust in a candidate's ability to address crime is a significant factor in their support, with Kamala Harris leading in this area according to the polls.

💡Favorability

Favorability in political contexts refers to the extent to which a candidate is viewed positively by the public. The script discusses how Kamala Harris has a significant lead in favorability, which is a crucial aspect of her campaign's appeal to voters.

💡Policy Areas

Policy areas are the specific topics or issues that a political candidate or party focuses on. The script outlines the policy areas that voters in swing states care about most, such as the economy, immigration, and crime, which are critical for candidates to address in their campaigns.

Highlights

Polls are already open in three states: Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota.

Kamala Harris has edged ahead of Donald Trump in national polls.

The election will be decided in local places with local issues.

Sky pole tracker shows Harris maintaining a slight lead nationally.

The goal is to translate national lead into 270 Electoral College votes.

Swing states are categorized into the Southeast, Northeast, and Southwest.

Voters in swing states prioritize the economy, immigration, democracy, polarization, and crime.

Donald Trump leads in trust on the economy and immigration.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied on threats to democracy.

Kamala Harris leads on crime.

Favorability shows a significant lead for Kamala Harris.

The importance of getting to 270 electoral votes regardless of popularity.

Concerns about Kamala Harris's lack of experience and the Democratic Party's strategy.

The influence of the Democratic Party leadership on the election.

The potential impact of Kamala Harris's stance on Israeli-Palestinian issues on Arab voters.

The possibility of a backlash against the Democratic Party leadership by their constituents.

The resilience of Donald Trump despite opposition and attempts to impede his presidency.

The upcoming seven weeks are crucial in determining the election outcome.

Transcripts

there may be seven weeks until the US

presidential election but polls are

already open in three states voters have

been getting in early in Virginia South

Dakota and Minnesota the home state of

democratic vice president nominee Tim

Walls his running mate kamla Harris has

edged ahead of Republican nominee Donald

Trump in the National polls but as Tom

cheshier explains that doesn't

necessarily secure path to the White

House we're going to talk about the big

and the small because the US is a giant

country but this is a election that will

be decided in local places with local

issues so let's start with a big the sky

pole tracker this is showing Across the

Nation the average of the most recent

polls who is leading and if you're in

the Harris Camp you'll be happy with

this she's maintaining but also slightly

extending this lead she's now looking

like she's going to be plus three up now

again that is across the country what

she needs to do is take that plus three

and translate it in this race to 270

Electoral College votes again look big

country but we're concerned with these

local places these swing States they

break down into three a you've got the

southeast here you think agricultural

sort of the swampy South then you've got

the Northeast the rustbelt former

industrial towns and another place

entirely the Southwest these two states

where you think like well immigration

might be a concern there this is Desert

it's the bright lights of Las Vegas

these are very very different locations

so if you're the candidates here you

might be thinking I've got all these

different sets of Voters how am I going

to appeal to them they've got different

concerns well actually there is polling

on this in these swing States and we can

tell you actually they sort of care

about the same things these are the

voters in the swing States rating the

policy areas they care about the most

and economy is number one perhaps not

surprising after a period of high

inflation but then you've got

immigration democracy that is sort of

threats to democracy the dangers of

polarization and crime down there so

they more or less agree on what is most

important there might be different

flavors that the economy looks different

in these places but these are the top

concerns and which candidate do they

trust to do best on the well if the bar

is in red they trust Donald Trump if

it's in blue they trust KLA Harris and

you can see Donald Trump has that lead

on the economy it's not as big as some

might thinking Kam Harris seems to be

catching a little bit on there but this

big lead for Donald Trump on immigration

threats to democracy actually both

candidates are tied there when it comes

to Crime KLA Harris has that big lead so

they had that big number these are sort

of smaller more local numbers and if

you're Donald Trump you'll be looking

this feeling pretty happy about it but

let's go back to another big number

favorability basically which candidate

do people prefer uh do they find them

favorable or unfavorable again we're

looking at this Gap again and it's a big

gap a big lead for KLA Harris so again

her Camp will be looking at that but

then you've got to balance that with the

swing States whether they think that is

going to translate into those swing

States and that really is the Crux of

this election it's the big and the small

how they interact is going to decide who

wins the

presidency we're joining me live is

political analyst Jo syracusa professor

of global Futures at curtain University

great to see yes plenty of numbers there

the

polls what do you make of them is it too

early to

call well not really I mean I after 2016

jie I I I I kind of went off the polls

for a while they were all wrong and they

got a little better in

2020 uh and you know the U the polls

only indicate certain things at certain

times I mean uh your little package

there is very important because while

people seem to like kamla Harris uh they

seem to trust Donald Trump with the

economy and we're here talking about

inflation interest rates and that kind

of thing and and they trust him with

with with the borders the immigration um

and um I think they actually trust him

with Law and Order despite what you what

the what the thing says there so on the

important issues in in the Battleground

so-called Battleground States look every

St Battleground if you want to get the

votes up uh I think um your your your

audience has to remember that no matter

how popular uh a candidate is the

important thing is getting to 270

electoral votes seems like the uh the

founding fathers weren't all that

excited about democracy they wanted to

make sure there was a buffer there and

that buffer is the electoral college and

I think uh Trump has a little easier

road to the uh to the Electoral College

and it's for this reason I think think

we we don't know much about uh comma

Harris in fact we know as much about her

today as we did two months ago uh her uh

Her speech to the Democratic National

Convention and her debate speech her

debate comments were the same piece of

paper you know she read the same lines

over and over again about the

opportunity economy which of course

means nothing and she's gonna have H tax

credits or people who want to buy their

first house and have a kid well not all

Americans are interested in that kind of

thing

so you know she may be very likable at

the end of the day you know we all like

Santa Claus but no one wants to see him

in charge of our Quan flight anywhere

because he's just not

reliable well you said that you want to

know more about her if if you had uh you

know something to say to her what

question would you want to know what

would you ask her I what I I want to

know about KLA Harris this sort of

foreshadows uh Australian prime

minister's visit right now to the to the

U to Wilmington is is um when did she

know that uh uh that President uh Biden

was incapable of being commander and

chief and chief when did she know that

he was cognitively uh impaired when did

she know that he was you know literally

not in charge of anything and then why

did she keep it a secret for so long you

know there is a a cabal of people and

it's not you know not Sinister but

there's a cabal of people who who run

the president's uh president in the

White House house and they kept him

under wraps as long as possible when he

had that one debate with uh president

Trump which I saw in Washington was just

it was a debacle you couldn't hide it

anymore President Biden had simply uh

you know he he timed out you know there

there's nothing left so I want to know

is how long did Harris know this and did

she take a lead role with the group of

people who run the president now it's

quite clear the leadership of the

democratic party and here we're talking

about uh the Obamas and we're talking

about the clintons and we're talking

about Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and

all these people they drove uh Biden

from the white house because they were

afraid they were going to lose the house

in the Senate because he couldn't stay

on message he couldn't be trusted as you

recall in 2020 he had the cover of covid

to run the campaign from the basement of

his home so you know they didn't have to

run any risk but look U President Biden

had a wonderful career he just grew old

in office he wasn't able to do it

anymore and um uh kamla Harris became

the most logical choice now she has not

won a single damn primary vote you know

she went to that Democratic Convention

on the um on the wings of all the

support that Joe Biden had as you recall

a couple weeks ago jie Biden was saying

that only you know the Lord Almighty

could stop him from running for

president well apparently the the Lord

Almighty gave him a call or two and

visited him and he U he folded because

the Democratic Leadership wouldn't

support him anymore they made it very

clear to him he can go easily or he can

go a hard way so they they told

Americans this story that he very

bravely and honorably left the White

House to clear the road for kamla Harris

well actually he got pushed and comma

Harris knows that he got pushed and

they're making uh the people who pushed

President Biden are making very sure

that kamla Harris does not embarrass

them now look she's an intelligent woman

she is a prosecutor she's not a business

woman she's not a real politician in the

sense of uh you know she deals well with

the corporate world I mean she's she's

used to putting some bad guys behind

bars and getting elected in California

but California politics J day they ain't

American politics America's not

California America is something else

it's a very different kind of kind of a

place so look U I think uh uh it's maybe

too close to call but in terms of the

quickest road to the Electoral Victory

270 votes I think uh Donald Trump has a

little lead on her on kamla Harris and

then for this reason in States like

Michigan the Muslims and the Arab voters

and the Palestinian voters are going to

make her pay a heavy price for uh not

condemning uh Israeli excesses in Gaza

and they made it very clear thousands

and thousands of them have come out over

and over again saying that they're not

going to forgive the Democratic party

now I have no idea what the Republican

Party intends to do but they're going to

hold her accountable and they were going

to hold Joe Biden accountable and so

there's a lot of people a lot of uh

normal constituents in the Democratic

party who just aren't going to put up

with it you know they they their their

interests have not been served the

Democrats of the the White House has not

made the slightest interest to uh

meliorate their concerns and so I think

they're going to punish the leadership

of the democratic party and look it

wouldn't hurt the Democrats to sit in

the wilderness for a little while and

figure out what they did wrong but I'll

tell you what they have been trying very

hard to keep Donald Trump out of office

I mean they weaponized the justice

system got him up on two phony uh

impeachment votes they threw the FBI at

them and the Department of Justice I me

they throw the kitchen sink at Donald

Trump and you know what he's still

walking that includes two assassination

attempts so Donald Trump uh looks like

he might be the last man standing yeah

we're getting the wrap up Joe got to uh

end it there but um what seven weeks to

go we'll know very soon thank you so

much always great to see you okay take

care