Systems Thinking | 6 mental models to add to your thinking toolbox

Summary

In this educational video, Vicki introduces six mental models for systems thinking to help viewers understand complex problems holistically. She explains the importance of recognizing non-linear relationships, using the example of a farm's ecosystem to illustrate how interconnected elements can create sustainable solutions. The video covers models such as stock and flow, the iceberg model for identifying underlying systems, bottleneck analysis, second-order thinking for predicting outcomes, and establishing feedback loops for continuous improvement.

Takeaways

• 🧠 Systems thinking involves viewing problems as a whole and understanding the connections between different parts, rather than just analyzing individual components.
• 🔄 Linear thinking is straightforward and sequential, while non-linear thinking recognizes the cyclical and interconnected nature of systems.
• 🌿 The documentary 'The Biggest Little Farm' exemplifies non-linear systems, showing how introducing biodiversity to a farm created a series of interconnected problems and solutions.
• 📊 The 'Stock and Flow' model is crucial for understanding systems, distinguishing between the elements within a system (stock) and the processes that change those elements (flow).
• ⛰ The 'Iceberg Model' helps identify different levels of reality in a system: events, patterns, systems structure, and mental models.
• 🔎 To find the root cause of issues within a system, look for the bottlenecks that are the weakest links causing delays or blockages.
• 🤔 'Second-order thinking' involves considering the implications and consequences of first-order actions, moving beyond immediate effects to anticipate further outcomes.
• 🔁 'Feedback loops' are essential for systems improvement, providing data to understand whether actions are moving the system towards its goals.
• 📈 Setting up a feedback loop involves defining goals, articulating assumptions, and choosing measurements that align with those assumptions to track progress.
• 🌱 The example of a farm's transition to sustainable practices illustrates how systems thinking can lead to innovative solutions that leverage existing resources within the system.

Q & A

What is the main idea presented in the script?

The main idea is the importance of systems thinking, which involves understanding problems as a whole and identifying the cause rather than just treating the symptoms.

What are the six mental models discussed in the script?

The six mental models are: 1) Linear vs. Non-linear Organization, 2) Stock and Flow, 3) Iceberg Model, 4) Finding the Bottleneck, 5) Second Order Thinking, and 6) Building a Feedback Loop.

How does the script define linear thinking?

Linear thinking is defined as reducing things down to a sequence of if-then statements, where one event leads to another in a predictable, sequential manner.

What is the example of non-linear thinking given in the script?

The example of non-linear thinking is the cycle of a, feeds into b, which feeds into c, which then feeds into a, creating a cycle instead of a straight line.

What is the documentary mentioned in the script that exemplifies non-linear thinking?

The documentary mentioned is 'The Biggest Little Farm', which follows a couple trying to bring a farm back to life through biodiversity and sustainable farming.

How does the script explain the Stock and Flow mental model?

Stock and Flow is explained as understanding systems in two parts: stock (things in the system that can be added or subtracted) and flow (actions that change the number of stock).

What does the Iceberg Model represent in systems thinking?

The Iceberg Model represents the four levels of realities seen by a systems thinker: events, patterns of behavior, systems, and mental models.

What is the significance of finding the bottleneck in a system?

Finding the bottleneck is significant because it identifies the weakest part or delay in a system, which is crucial for improving the overall system's performance.

How does second order thinking differ from first order thinking?

Second order thinking differs from first order thinking by considering the implications of the first order actions, looking beyond the immediate consequences to potential secondary effects.

What is the purpose of building a feedback loop in systems thinking?

Building a feedback loop is to design a system that provides information and data to understand if progress is being made towards a goal, allowing for continuous improvement.

How does the script suggest applying mental models in decision making?

The script suggests applying mental models in decision making by tracking the models used, assessing the quality of decisions made, and learning from the outcomes to improve future decision-making processes.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Understanding Systems Thinking

The paragraph introduces the concept of systems thinking, contrasting it with the more common reductionist approach. It emphasizes the importance of viewing the world as a whole rather than in parts, highlighting Aristotle's quote that 'the whole is more than the sum of its parts.' The speaker, Vicki, explains how systems thinking uses six mental models to understand problems holistically and identify root causes rather than just treating symptoms. The first mental model discussed is the linear versus non-linear organization of thinking. Linear thinking is straightforward, with a clear sequence of cause and effect, while non-linear thinking recognizes the dynamic interconnections and cycles in the world. An example from a Netflix documentary, 'The Biggest Little Farm,' illustrates non-linear thinking in action, showing how a couple transformed a depleted farm into a thriving ecosystem through biodiversity and understanding the interdependencies between different elements of the farm.

05:01

🌱 Stock and Flow: Simplifying Complex Systems

This section delves into the second mental model: stock and flow. Stocks represent the static elements within a system that can be quantified, such as animals, plants, and money on a farm. Flows, on the other hand, are the dynamic actions that change the quantity of stocks, like selling lemons which decreases the lemon stock and increases the money. The paragraph uses the farm example to illustrate how understanding the relationship between stocks and flows can simplify complex systems. It also introduces the iceberg model, the third mental model, which identifies four levels of realities: events, patterns of behavior, systems, and mental models. The iceberg model encourages looking beyond immediate events to understand underlying patterns, systemic structures, and the mental models that shape them. The farm's struggle with snails and other pests is used to demonstrate how treating symptoms (events) is less effective than addressing the systemic causes.

10:03

🐌 Finding the Bottleneck: Strengthening Weakest Links

The third paragraph focuses on the fourth mental model, finding the bottleneck, which is about identifying the weakest part of a system that制约s its overall performance. The paragraph discusses how the farm's profitability was hindered by multiple issues, with pest destruction of crops being the most significant. It introduces the 80/20 rule as a tool for prioritizing problems and emphasizes the importance of addressing the primary bottleneck to enhance the system's performance. The speaker also mentions the need for temporal perspective when identifying bottlenecks, suggesting that delays in profit were a key concern for the farm.

15:03

🤔 Second Order Thinking: Anticipating Unintended Consequences

This section introduces the fifth mental model, second order thinking, which involves considering the implications of first order actions. While first order thinking is linear and immediate, second order thinking involves predicting the subsequent effects of actions. The paragraph uses the example of planting cover crops to enrich soil, which, while beneficial, also attracts pests. Second order thinking involves anticipating these effects and preparing for them. The speaker advises asking three key questions to practice second order thinking: what are the likely outcomes, which outcome do you expect, and what is the probability of your expectation being correct. This model is presented as a tool for making more informed decisions and learning from their outcomes.

🔁 Building Feedback Loops: Continuous Improvement

The final paragraph discusses the sixth mental model, building feedback loops, which is crucial for continuous improvement and adaptation. The speaker explains the importance of defining goals, articulating assumptions, and choosing measurements to track progress towards those goals. Using the farm's struggle with pests and soil fertility as examples, the paragraph illustrates how feedback loops can provide clear indicators of whether interventions are successful. The speaker also extends this concept to personal goals, such as clarifying thinking to make better decisions, and suggests setting up a decision journal to track and assess the use of mental models in decision-making processes.

Keywords

💡Systems Thinking

Systems thinking is a holistic approach to problem-solving that considers the relationships and interactions between the parts of a complex system. In the video, systems thinking is used to analyze the interconnectedness of various elements on a farm, such as how planting cover crops affects the soil, attracts pests, and influences the overall biodiversity. It's about understanding the whole picture rather than just individual components.

💡Linear vs. Non-linear Organization

Linear thinking is a straightforward, cause-and-effect approach where one event directly leads to another in a predictable sequence. Non-linear thinking, on the other hand, recognizes that multiple factors can influence outcomes in complex, dynamic systems. The video script uses the example of a farm's ecosystem to illustrate non-linear thinking, where actions like planting cover crops create a cycle of effects that interconnect rather than follow a simple, linear path.

💡Stock and Flow

Stock and flow is a mental model that helps to understand systems by distinguishing between the quantities of resources (stock) and the rates at which they change (flow). In the script, the farm's animals, plants, soil, and water are considered stocks, while selling lemons or the introduction of new species are flows. This concept is crucial for managing resources and predicting the impacts of changes within a system.

💡Iceberg Model

The iceberg model is a framework used to identify the different levels of realities in a system, from visible events to underlying mental models. The video uses this model to analyze the farm's challenges, suggesting that merely addressing visible problems (like snails on trees) is insufficient. Instead, one must look deeper into patterns, systems, and mental models to understand and resolve issues effectively.

💡Bottleneck

A bottleneck in systems thinking refers to a point of maximum constraint or the weakest link in a system that limits its overall performance. In the video, the farm's inability to turn a profit is identified as a bottleneck, specifically the destruction of crops by pests. Identifying and addressing bottlenecks is key to improving the efficiency and output of a system.

💡Second Order Thinking

Second order thinking involves considering the consequences of the consequences, or the second-level effects of actions taken within a system. The video contrasts first order thinking, which only considers immediate outcomes, with second order thinking, which anticipates further implications. For instance, planting cover crops to enrich soil might attract pests, a second order effect that requires preparation and management.

💡Feedback Loop

A feedback loop is a process where the output of a system is used as input to influence the system's future performance. In the context of the video, feedback loops are essential for monitoring and adjusting actions to achieve goals. The farm uses feedback from crop yields and pest issues to make management decisions, improving the system over time.

💡Mental Models

Mental models are simplified frameworks or theories that individuals use to understand and interpret the world around them. The video emphasizes the importance of identifying and challenging underlying mental models, such as the belief in the farm's video that biodiversity leads to sustainable farming. These models shape our perceptions and actions within systems.

💡Anti-fragility

Anti-fragility is a concept from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, suggesting that some systems not only resist shocks but actually thrive and grow stronger from them. The video implies that many natural systems, like the farm, are anti-fragile, where challenges such as pest infestations can be harnessed to create stronger, more resilient systems through the introduction of natural predators.

💡Interconnectedness

Interconnectedness refers to the complex web of relationships and dependencies between different elements within a system. The video script highlights how recognizing these connections, rather than treating problems in isolation, is crucial for effective problem-solving. For example, the farm's solution to snail infestations involved understanding how ducks, which were already part of the system, could naturally control the snail population.

Highlights

The importance of systems thinking in understanding the world as a whole rather than in parts.

The contrast between linear and non-linear thinking and how the latter better represents the dynamic world.

An example of non-linear thinking in the documentary 'The Biggest Little Farm'.

The cycle of interconnections in a farm ecosystem as depicted in the documentary.

How introducing biodiversity to a farm led to a series of interconnected problems.

The realization that solving problems on a farm involves understanding the interconnections, not just isolated issues.

The introduction of the second mental model: stock and flow, which simplifies systems into two parts.

The explanation of 'stock' as the elements in a system that can be added or subtracted.

The definition of 'flow' as the actions that change the number of stock in a system.

The iceberg model, which identifies four levels of realities in systems thinking.

The concept of treating the cause, not just the symptoms, by understanding deeper system structures.

The role of mental models in shaping the structure and behavior of a system.

The process of finding the bottleneck in a system to identify the weakest part that needs improvement.

The 80/20 rule as a tool for prioritizing the most significant bottlenecks in a system.

Second order thinking as a method to predict the implications of first order actions.

The importance of building a feedback loop to understand if actions are moving the system towards its goal.

Practical steps to set up a feedback loop, including defining goals, assumptions, and measurements.

The application of mental models in decision making and the use of decision journals for assessment.

Transcripts

there are two ways of looking at the

world in parts or as a whole now most of

us have been trained to think in parts

right take something complex break it

down into its individual components

study each in order to understand what

is happening in the more complex worlds

our schools are set up this way we have

subjects like english math biology

chemistry physics and we look into each

one of them in order to understand what

the world is like but as aristotle says

the whole is more than the sum of its

parts and usually it's in the connection

between the different subjects between

the different parts the relationships

between those that really signifies how

something actually works so that's where

systems thinking come in we'll use six

mental models to understand problem as a

whole as well as identify the cause and

not just treat the symptoms

hi everyone it's vicki if you're new

here i talk about clear thinking clear

communications through frameworks and

mental models and today we'll kick-start

these six mental models in system

thinking with the first one which is

linear versus non-linear organization

now in linear thinking which most of us

are very familiar with it's reducing

things down to if then so if a happens

and then b happens and then c happens so

this is kind of what excel spreadsheets

are built to be like where we move in

sequence and everything is linear but as

we know the world is not like that the

world is very dynamic things affect each

other all the time and it's really hard

to pin something down into a very linear

fashion a non-linear way of thinking

could be that a feeds into b which feeds

into c which then feeds into a so it

becomes more of a cycle instead of a

than b than c there's a documentary on

netflix that's actually a really good

non-linear example of how the world

organizes itself it's called the biggest

little farm it follows a couple molly

and john with their dog moving from l.a

to a farm that used to be used for

exclusive berry farming single planting

of the berries farm sucked all of the

nutrients out of the farm so the couple

is trying to bring the farm back to life

and introduce biodiversity so they have

more sustainable organic farming that

feeds the local community for example

they will plant cover crops like citrus

trees where they will be able to bring

more nutrients and water back into the

soil that used to be felt but they

quickly realized that these cover crops

then attracted pests like snails that

infested their whole cover crop garden

they also raised farm animals like cows

and sheep in order to use the manure to

give nutrients to the fallow soil but

then the manure attracted a huge fly

overpopulation and they didn't know what

to do with that they also had a pond

with ducks and fish and everyone was

getting along swimmingly but then a

drought hit and the duck droppings into

the pond that has less water now

created toxic algae which then killed

the fish and so molly and john realized

that all these parts weren't working

separately they were working together

it's not a linear problem when they

realized that there's actually

interconnection between all of these

seemingly separate problems they were

able to resolve it really easily and

quickly for example the chickens they

bought to lay eggs to sell at the

farmers market turns out they really

like to eat the maggots in the manure

that turned into fly which contained

their flyover population the ducks are

creating the problem in the pond with

the toxic algae well it turns out that

they really love to eat the snails that

were infesting the cover crops and

because they came on land then their

droppings actually became fertilizer for

the cover crop rather than poisoning the

fish in the pond many systems are

actually organically anti-fragile and

all we need to do is see the

interconnectedness so we can allow the

solution to happen so a quick exercise

is to draw non-linear connections

between different elements of a system

that you're working with instead of

linearly thinking about things like one

then two then three then fourth and five

put them out on a page and start to see

if there are any interconnections

between all the different elements of

your problem now you might be thinking

wait a second this sounds pretty

complicated what do i do how do i even

know what to put on the paper in order

to map out non-linear processes well

that actually leads to mental model

number two stock and flow this is

understanding systems in just two parts

stock and flow so let's take the stock

first which are the things in the system

that can be added or subtracted so in

the example of the farm this is the

animals the humans the plants the soil

the water right the money that's being

made these are the things that make up

the farm all of them can be added or

subtracted then there's the flow so

these are the actions that change the

number of stock so in the farm example

selling something is flow let's say you

sell lemons right so you by selling the

lemon you decrease the amount of lemons

and you increase the amount of money

made by the farm so selling here is the

flow this will help you simplify the

world there are only two things you need

to look at right the stock are the

things and the flow connects the things

together

now you might say that sounds really

simple and probably everyone can do it

so what is the competitive advantage i

can have by thinking in systems and to

that we move on to number three the

iceberg model the iceberg model

identifies the four levels of realities

you are seeing as a systems thinker one

event two patterns of behavior three

systems and four mental models most of

us only see events happening in the firm

example it's a simple to see the event

right there are snails on the citrus

tree that is the problem so let's pick

off the snails and this is classic

treating the symptoms not the cause it's

easy to do but the problems usually come

back so we look deeper to the second

level which is the patterns of behavior

and here we add the element of time so

over an extended period of time what has

been happening what is the pattern now

for the farm molly and john keeps on

seeing that every time they introduce

something there's always a problem every

time they introduce another solution

there is a new problem so looks like

there's something structural going on

here and that's the next level systems

right what are the structures in place

that connect everything together what's

causing the patterns and for the farm

the structure is biodiversity

john and molly wanted to introduce

biodiversity sustainable farming or

organic farming to that fallow farm and

by introducing biodiversity they kept on

creating new problems because every time

they introduce something new there's new

prey and there's new predators so

naturally you ask why is biodiversity a

structure of this farm right and that

takes us to level number four mental

models i've introduced mental models in

more detail in these videos here and

i'll link them in the description so you

can check them out later but here let's

just summarize that with what are the

assumptions what are the beliefs what

are the values that's shaping this

system and for the farm the mental

models use our biodiversity is going to

create sustainable organic farming that

help us humans live in harmony with

nature instead of trying to control the

environment and there lies the clue to

the solution of all the problems of the

snail investigations

of the flyover population of the duck

droppings in the pond right is that

you're not supposed to control

the environment it's not about how do

you control the snail population right

it's looking for how nature deals with

snails which turns out to be the ducks

that are already on the farm right that

likes to eat these snails and by just

making that connection

instead of hiring full-time staff who

goes by hand picking these snails off

the trees they have ducks doing the work

for them for free and fertilizing the

soil at the same time and that's because

you've gone and analyzed the four levels

of realities coming to the end of the

mental models which help you understand

the cause of the problem and not just

fix the symptoms so now you might be

thinking okay everything makes sense in

theory but where do i even start you

know how do i find that event first that

helps me then analyze the next three

levels where do i start and that brings

us to mental model number four finding

the bottleneck the system is only as

strong as its weakest part and i've

talked about this in this video here

that you can check out later but quick

summary you want to be looking for the

bottlenecks of a system a place where

things get stuck and there is delay

again you are putting things in your

perspective with time so for the farm

let's look for the bottleneck right

bottleneck is delay and here is you know

turning a profit on the farm what is

delaying them profiting from all of the

crops all of the animals that they've

raised now it turns out on the farm 70

of their crops are destroyed by pests

and at a glance this wasn't the only

problem right they had chickens that

laid eggs that were super popular at the

farmers market but they just didn't have

enough chickens to sell more eggs to

fulfill the demand so also that's

slowing down profit also is the soil not

being fertile enough to plant more crop

that's also a problem also they don't

have enough talent that knew enough

about biodiversity in farming so that's

also slowing them down so while there

are many problems that exist you want to

find the bottom neck right the weakest

link in the chain and with all of the

problems the biggest one is the pests

that's destroying 70 of the crop and you

may need the 80 20 rule or some other

mental model to help you prioritize

which problem is your biggest bottleneck

i won't talk about it here you can check

out this video on 80 20 rule if you're

interested now let's say you've

identified the bottleneck right you've

used the iceberg model you've used the

non-linear organizational thinking

you've applied the stock and flow the

next question is the solutions that i'm

coming up which one should i go for how

can i tell if the changes i want to make

is going to have the intended effect

because again right things are

interconnected things are complicated

how do i know and i've got you covered

with mental model number five which is

second order thinking most of us think

in first order right if i do this then

this other thing happens right linear

thinking sounds familiar right but we

want to move beyond that and go to

second order thinking second order

thinking is about finding the

implications to the first order actions

so let's go back to that farm example

right first order thinking would be the

soil is fallow there are new nutrients

there so if i plant cover crops that

will help bring back nutrients and water

into the soil second order thinking

though is okay the soil is fallow right

we want to plant cover crops to bring

back the nutrients and water what will

happen then right that will change the

environment which means what we'll

probably get bugs and critters in the

soil right now that is healthier and

what else right snails tend to like

cover crop the citrus trees that they're

thinking about so if it's likely that by

planting cover crops that you'll get

some pests you have to be prepared for

that and that's second order thinking

now clearly this is not something that

you just dream of right if you didn't

know anything about biodiversity and

farming and soil you probably wouldn't

know what the pests are what might

happen but that's the point is that

because most people don't have that

knowledge they just stop at first order

thinking and then i'll deal with

whatever happens next

but if you start to think in second

order you can start to know what to

google what to find out type in what

kind of pests do citrus trees attract

google won't give you all the answers by

thinking the second order you actually

find direction as to what you need to

know more about now the questions you

want to ask yourself first is what are

the likely outcome now if you find

yourself unable to answer this question

it probably means this decision is built

on very shallow knowledge right and you

have to question am i really making the

right decision by trying an action that

i don't even know what might be the

outcome right that is a big signal for

you now the second question is out of

all the possible outcomes that may

happen which one do i think will occur

again this is helping you test right

where do i things things will go what do

i know about this that leads me to

thinking that and if i don't know right

is a signal for you to find either more

information find someone who's

knowledgeable in the field to help you

make that decision now the third

question is what is the probability that

i'm right again it helps you test how

much do i know how much am i willing to

bet on these because usually when we

make these type of changes these

implement these solutions they're not

free so by knowing how confident you are

with this it not only helps you make the

decision that it also helps you when you

come back to look at it and see okay i

was really confident but i was actually

wrong so what was the missing piece that

i didn't see before or i'm not very

confident i come back and review and i i

see it worked why did it work right it

helps you create feedback for how you

make decisions next time so second order

thinking is really helpful for you to

see the moving parts and help you start

to make decisions and be able to assess

what you've done afterwards there's

nothing more helpful than seeing blind

spots within a complex system which

brings me to mental model number six is

building a feedback loop this is about

designing a system so that you have

information and data that helps you

understand if you're moving closer to

your goal and we've come full circle

this is all about non-linear

organization instead of saying a then b

then c we're trying to talk about right

a feeds into b which feeds into c which

feeds back into a so we can by

improving things we're improving the

whole system now in the farm the

measurements and the improvements were

quite obvious right they were measuring

their crop output the progress of it so

whenever they see a problem like snail

infestation gophers eating the roots

they knew exactly what was happening and

by improving those they could see

progress but in business and in life the

measurements might be less clear if your

goal is to clarify your thinking what

are the best measurements to identify

whether you're moving closer to that

goal it's a lot more complex so the

steps to set up a feedback loop for

something

less obvious is one to define your goal

right you need to know what you want to

move towards and this will set the scene

for everything else to come number two

is articulate the assumptions you have

about how you can get to that goal this

is crucial because it will help you set

up the measurements let's say if you

assumed that meditation will help me

think clear then the measurements you

use are going to be very different if

you assume that using mental models will

help you get to clarifying your thinking

then once you know your assumptions you

go to number three which is choose the

measurements that work for your

assumptions so let's take the example of

wanting to clarify your thinking right

so first let's look at the goal what are

you trying to do with clarifying your

thinking let's say it's to make better

decisions right then number one your

goal is to

clarify your thinking in order to make

better decisions now let's move on to

number two which is identifying the

assumptions right say that you think

frameworks and mental models are going

to help you do that then also you think

that okay in order to make better

decisions i need to track my decision

right okay that's another assumption

that we want to put in there with that

let's move on to number three which is

coming up with the measurements right

let's say for the mental models that are

going to help you shape your thinking

you think that okay i need to have more

mental models in my toolbox the more i

have the more i'm going to be able to

use them together so number one then is

you want to track how many mental models

you know then you also want to track

your decisions right in this case then

you can come up with some sort of

decision journal that requires you to

come back let's say three months later

six months later in order for you to

assess

how well did you make that decision the

feedback loop can look something like

this one you learn metamodels right and

then you keep track of how many mental

models you've learned then when you make

decisions you want to track the mental

models you've used in that decision

making process to maybe a decision

journey

then once you've done that you want to

be able to come back and assess how good

was your decision making right the

mental models you've used were they

helpful were they the right ones so

let's say you set a timeline for

assessing them three months six months

when you make the assessment you can

then see if the decision was a good one

which mental models were helpful if this

decision wasn't a good one what was the

gap between the mental models i use and

the situation and then that will help

you learn more mental models and apply

them in your life this is actually what

i'm doing with my decision making

process and how i'm making sure i'm

applying the right mental models over

time so i'll do another video on

decision journals specifically designed

to use mental models

i've updated since i've created this

video here

so i'll share with you how you can

practically apply mental models in your

decision making if you've learned

something new in this video make sure to

give it a thumbs up

subscribe if you haven't already and i

will see you in the next video bye