Христо Грозев про теракт в Крокусе

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22 Mar 202414:01

Summary

TLDRThe transcript discusses a warning issued by the U.S. embassy about potential terrorist attacks in Russia around International Women's Day, coinciding with the Russian elections. It speculates on the possible connections between the warning and recent events, suggesting that the threat may have been a destabilization tactic. The conversation delves into the possible motives behind such an attack, the response from Russian authorities, and the potential involvement of the Haqqani Network. It also touches on the broader implications for Russian society and the role of intelligence services in preventing terrorism, suggesting that resources might have been diverted due to the focus on Ukraine and internal dissent.

Takeaways

🔍 The American embassy warned about possible terrorist attacks in Russia around March 8, citing intelligence that threats were imminent in the lead-up to elections.
🕵️ The warning indicated a specific threat from the Afghan cell of ISIS (referred to as Ghilka), which had previously targeted Russian interests in Kabul in 2022.
⚠️ The Russian response to the warning was initially skeptical, viewing it as an attempt to create panic and chaos. However, arrests of several Ghilka cell members followed the warning.
🤔 Speculation arises whether the recent events are directly linked to the US embassy’s warnings or if they inspired a similar attack.
🔗 The timing of the attacks is considered significant, occurring after the Russian elections and before the inauguration, raising suspicions of possible internal orchestration.
🗣️ The theory that Russian authorities might allow or stage such attacks for political gains is discussed, with historical references to similar events.
🔬 The FSB and other Russian agencies are perceived to be in an existential struggle with the West, potentially leading to moral compromises.
💥 The attacks are analyzed as either a genuine threat from ISIS or a strategic move to justify increased mobilization and suppression of dissent.
🗓️ Reports suggest that Putin plans to initiate widespread mobilization post-elections, with skepticism from military experts about the feasibility of such a large-scale effort.
💬 The discussion includes the challenges and resource allocation shifts within Russian intelligence, indicating a potential lapse in counter-terrorism focus due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Q & A

What was the warning issued by the embassy on March 8th regarding Russia?
-The embassy issued a warning about possible terrorist attacks in Russia ahead of the elections, specifically in the days leading up to March 8th.
What is the connection suggested between the March 8th warning and current events?
-It is suggested that the warning may be related to current events, implying that the embassy's warning could have foreseen or influenced the recent incidents.
How did the American embassy's warning become public?
-The warning became public when it was issued to American citizens to be cautious of a potential terrorist threat, although the details were more specific between states and not fully disclosed to the public.
What is known about the threat from the Haqqani network?
-The Haqqani network, an Afghan militant group, had previously carried out a terrorist attack against Russian interests in 2012 in Kabul, targeting the Russian embassy.
How did the Russian authorities respond to the warning?
-Russian authorities initially dismissed the warning as insufficient information and considered it a rumor to create agitation and chaos. However, they did arrest several representatives of the Haqqani network according to the FSB's version.
What is the possibility that the recent events are unrelated to the American warning?
-There is a possibility that the recent events are not connected to the American warning and could be an independent occurrence, though this seems less likely given the timing and specificity of the warning.
What is the theory of the 'Ryazan sugar' operation mentioned in the script?
-The 'Ryazan sugar' operation refers to a theory that the Russian authorities might have allowed certain terrorist acts to occur for political purposes, such as creating a pretext for mobilization or to justify actions against perceived enemies.
How does the timing of the recent events relate to the elections and potential mobilization?
-The timing of the recent events is significant as they occurred after the elections and before the inauguration, coinciding with rumors of mobilization and creating a sense of urgency and potential for unrest.
What resources and focus does the FSB allocate to different areas such as counter-terrorism, the Ukrainian direction, and suppressing dissent?
-The FSB allocates resources to various areas, including counter-terrorism, counter-intelligence activities related to Ukraine, and suppressing dissent within Russia. The balance of these resources may shift based on perceived threats and political objectives.
What is the significance of the reported disruptions in services like Telegram and VKontakte in Russia?
-The disruptions in services could be coincidental, but they also fit into theories suggesting a larger operation or response to perceived threats, possibly indicating a state of heightened alert or preparation.
What is the implication of the FSB's potential neglect of counter-terrorism efforts in recent years?
-The implication is that due to resource constraints or shifting priorities, the FSB may have overlooked genuine terrorist threats, potentially leading to security lapses and successful terrorist operations.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Embassy Warnings and Potential Terrorist Threats

The speaker discusses the embassy's warning of possible terrorist attacks in Russia before the elections, specifically around International Women's Day on March 8. They speculate on the connection between these warnings and recent events, suggesting that the embassy's alerts might be related. The discussion delves into the specifics of the warning, mentioning that while it was public, it was more detailed between states, particularly from American intelligence hinting at a potential threat from the Haqqani Network, an Afghan militant group. The conversation also touches on Russia's response, which was initially dismissive, considering the warning a ploy to create chaos. However, several representatives of the network were arrested by the FSB in the following weeks. The speaker ponders whether the recent events could be a coincidence, a destabilization attempt, or unrelated, and considers various scenarios including a potential Ukrainian operation.

05:02

🤔 Analyzing State-Sponsored Terror and FSB's Response

This paragraph continues the conversation on the likelihood of state-sponsored terrorism and the role of the Russian authorities. The speaker questions the motives behind the Haqqani Network's actions and the specificity of the US warning, which included concrete dates. They express concern over the Russian response, which claimed a lack of detailed information, yet led to arrests indicating they took the threat seriously. The discussion also raises the issue of a previous terror attack by the Haqqani Network in Kabul and the technical sophistication of a recent attack on Russian soil, questioning the intelligence and border services' effectiveness. The speaker mentions Vladimir Putin's statement post-election about the West's attempts to destabilize Russian society and suggests that there might be a plan for a general mobilization after the elections, which has caused skepticism even among Russian military experts.

10:05

🛡️ Shift in FSB Priorities and the Impact on Counter-Terrorism

The speaker analyzes the FSB's resource allocation, suggesting that their focus has shifted from counter-terrorism to other areas, such as the conflict with Ukraine and suppressing dissent within Russia. They hypothesize that the FSB's resources might have been redirected to managing the Ukrainian front, which could have led to a lapse in counter-terrorism efforts. This might have resulted in an oversight of a terrorist operation being prepared. The speaker also mentions the FSB's involvement in organizing local occupation authorities and a fake police force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests. They suggest that the FSB's limited resources have forced them to reallocate personnel across different tasks, potentially leading to a failure in countering terrorism.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Embassy Warning

An 'Embassy Warning' refers to a formal alert issued by an embassy to its citizens regarding potential security threats or incidents in a foreign country. In the context of the video, the American embassy in Russia issued a warning about possible terrorist attacks before the elections, which is a central theme as it raises questions about the timing and the validity of such warnings.

💡Terrorist Threat

A 'Terrorist Threat' is an indication or warning of a potential act of terrorism. The script discusses the specifics of a threat that was communicated by the American intelligence, suggesting a planned terrorist attack against Russian citizens, which is a key element in understanding the gravity of the situation being discussed.

💡Haqqani Network

The 'Haqqani Network' is an Afghan insurgent group known for its affiliation with the Taliban and its involvement in terrorist activities. The script mentions a past incident involving the Haqqani Network, which carried out an attack against Russian interests in Kabul, illustrating the historical context of terrorist threats.

💡FSB

FSB stands for Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, which is the principal security agency of Russia and a successor to the Soviet Union's KGB. The script refers to the FSB's response to the embassy warning and its role in handling security threats, highlighting the agency's significance in counter-terrorism efforts.

💡Destabilization

In the context of the video, 'Destabilization' refers to actions or events that undermine the stability of a political system or society. The discussion suggests that the terrorist threat and subsequent events could be an attempt to destabilize Russian society, which is a critical aspect of the narrative.

💡Mobilization

Mobilization, in a military context, is the process of assembling and preparing troops and resources for war. The script mentions a plan for mass mobilization after the elections, which is a significant point as it indicates potential large-scale military action and its implications for the country.

💡Counterintelligence

Counterintelligence involves activities designed to prevent or thwart spying, intelligence gathering, and sabotage by enemy agents. The video script alludes to counterintelligence efforts by Russian services, particularly in relation to the Ukrainian direction, which is a key component of the country's security strategy.

💡Dissent

Dissent refers to the expression of disagreement with or opposition to a policy or decision. The script discusses the suppression of dissent within Russia as a significant issue, reflecting the broader theme of political control and freedom of expression.

💡FSB Resources

The term 'FSB Resources' pertains to the allocation of personnel, funding, and other assets to the Federal Security Service for its operations. The script raises questions about how these resources are distributed between counter-terrorism efforts, Ukrainian operations, and internal security, which is crucial for understanding the effectiveness of the security measures.

💡Telegram and VKontakte Outages

Telegram and VKontakte are popular social media platforms. The script mentions outages affecting these platforms in Russia, which could be interpreted as a response to security threats or an attempt to control information flow, tying into the broader theme of state control over communication channels.

💡FSB Neglect

The term 'FSB Neglect' suggests that the Federal Security Service may have overlooked or failed to adequately address certain security issues. The script implies that the FSB might have neglected the fight against terrorism in recent years, which is a significant concern raised in the discussion.

Highlights

The embassy issued a warning about possible terrorist attacks in Russia before the elections, specifically around International Women's Day.

The warning was very specific, but publicly only a general warning was given to American citizens about a potential terrorist threat.

The threat was linked to the Haqqani Network, an Afghan insurgent group that had previously targeted Russian interests.

The Russian response was to dismiss the warning as misinformation, suggesting it was an attempt to create panic and chaos.

Despite the dismissal, several representatives of the Haqqani Network were arrested in Russia according to the FSB.

The discussion raises questions about whether the current events are related to the American warning or if it inspired similar actions.

There is speculation about whether the events could be unrelated or part of a destabilization effort within Russian society.

The possibility of a Ukrainian terrorist operation is considered unlikely but not ruled out.

The timing of the events post-election and pre-inauguration raises suspicions and recalls earlier conspiracy theories.

The FSB and SVR are said to view their current situation as an existential struggle with the West, possibly justifying the lifting of moral barriers.

The discussion suggests that the FSB may have organized or allowed certain events to transpire for political purposes.

There is mention of a plan for general mobilization after the elections, which has raised skepticism even among Russian generals.

The balance of resources and efforts by Russian special services is questioned, especially regarding their focus on real terrorism.

Telegram and VKontakte outages in Russia might be coincidental but are noted as potentially related to the FSB's activities.

The FSB's resource allocation has been disrupted by the ongoing war, affecting their ability to focus on various tasks including anti-terrorism.

There is a suggestion that the FSB may have overlooked real terrorists due to their focus on other areas such as Ukraine and internal dissent.