What happens when the ‘Big One’ hits Metro Manila? | Look Through: The Big One

Summary

The video script discusses the West Valley Fault System in the Philippines, a 100-kilometer fault line that poses a significant seismic threat to densely populated areas, including Metro Manila. It references the devastating 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake to underscore the potential for a massive quake in the Philippines, situated on the 'Ring of Fire.' The script mentions a 2004 study predicting a 7.2 magnitude quake could cause over 33,000 deaths and damage to 168,000 buildings. It emphasizes the importance of adhering to building codes, being prepared with emergency kits, and knowing evacuation routes. The narrative also touches on the challenges of predicting earthquakes and the need for updated building standards to withstand seismic activity.

Takeaways

• 🏠 The house in Barangay Tondo, Muntinlupa City, is situated near the West Valley Fault system, which poses a significant seismic risk.
• ⛔️ The West Valley Fault system is a 100-kilometer fault line that passes through densely populated areas in the Philippines, including Metro Manila.
• 🌋 The Philippines, located in the Ring of Fire, has over 150 active faults and is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.
• 🔍 The country monitors these faults with 116 seismic stations to track potential seismic activity.
• 📉 The term 'the Big One' refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could be caused by the movement of the West Valley Fault.
• 😢 A study from 2004 estimated that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Metro Manila could result in over 33,500 fatalities and 100,000 injuries.
• 🏗️ The National Building Code of the Philippines, adopted in 1977, sets standards for construction to withstand earthquakes, but it is over 46 years old and needs reviewing.
• 🏘️ There are calls to relocate residents living along the fault lines, but some structures were built before the fault lines were identified.
• 🆘 In the event of an earthquake, the recommended actions are to 'duck, cover, and hold' under a table or sturdy object until the shaking stops, then evacuate to an open space.
• 🌐 Earthquakes are unpredictable, and the best defense is being prepared, informed, and following safety guidelines.

Q & A

What is the significance of the house in Barangay To-Nasan, Muntinlupa City?

The house is significant because it is one of the first houses built in the barangay and is located near the West Valley Fault system, which poses a significant seismic risk.

What event in February 2023 highlighted the dangers of earthquakes?

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Turkey and Syria in February 2023, causing massive destruction and loss of life, which serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers of earthquakes.

Why is the Philippines considered to be at high risk for earthquakes?

The Philippines is located in the Ring of Fire, a geological belt known for active volcanoes and frequent earthquakes, and has over 150 active faults, including the West Valley Fault system.

What is the 'big one' in the context of the West Valley Fault system?

The 'big one' refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could be generated by the movement of the West Valley Fault system, which could result in significant damage and loss of life.

What are the estimated casualties and damages if the 'big one' were to occur in Metro Manila?

A study from 2004 estimates that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake could result in the death of 33,500 people, injury to 106,000, and the collapse of around 168,000 residential buildings.

What is the current status of the West Valley Fault system in terms of movement?

The last significant movement of the West Valley Fault system was in 1658, and based on the recurrence interval of 400 to 600 years, the next major event could be anytime between 2058 and 2258.

How does the National Building Code of the Philippines address earthquake safety?

The National Building Code of the Philippines provides minimum standards and requirements for structures to ensure they are safe, including guidelines for earthquake-resistant construction.

What measures are being taken to monitor seismic activities in the Philippines?

The Philippines has 116 seismic stations spread across the country that transmit data to the PHIVOLCS office in Quezon City for monitoring and analysis of earthquake activities.

What are the recommended actions for the public during an earthquake?

The recommended actions during an earthquake are to 'duck, cover, and hold on' under a table or sturdy furniture, and once the shaking stops, to evacuate immediately to an open space.

How can residents living near the West Valley Fault system prepare for a potential earthquake?

Residents can prepare by familiarizing themselves with earthquake hazards in their area, knowing evacuation routes, and having an emergency supply kit ready.

Outlines

00:00

🏠 The Threat of West Valley Fault to Philippine Homes

The script discusses the perilous situation of a house in Muntinlupa City, which is perilously close to the West Valley Fault system, a significant geological fault line. The house, one of the earliest in the barangay, stands as a symbol of the potential devastation that could be unleashed by an earthquake. The script references the catastrophic 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake to underscore the gravity of such events. It highlights the Philippines' location within the 'Ring of Fire,' an area prone to seismic and volcanic activities, and the presence of over 150 active faults, monitored by 116 seismic stations across the country. The West Valley Fault, in particular, is a 100-kilometer-long fault traversing several densely populated areas, posing a significant threat. The script introduces the concept of 'the big one,' a term used to describe a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could result from the West Valley Fault's movement, potentially causing massive loss of life and destruction.

05:01

🔍 Earthquake Preparedness and Building Codes in the Philippines

This segment delves into the measures being taken to prepare for and mitigate the effects of a potential earthquake. It mentions the National Building Code of the Philippines, adopted in 1977, which sets standards for building construction to ensure safety during seismic events. However, experts argue for a review of this code, given its age and the need for updated guidelines to withstand stronger earthquakes. The script also discusses the role of the Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines in crafting a national structural code, with an update expected to include earthquake-resistance guidelines. The narrative shifts to the personal experiences of residents living along the West Valley Fault, who have witnessed changes in their environment that they attribute to the fault line's activity. The segment concludes with advice on personal preparedness, emphasizing the importance of knowing evacuation routes and maintaining emergency supplies, and the 'duck, cover, and hold' protocol during an earthquake.

10:03

📡 Earthquake Monitoring and Community Awareness

The final paragraph focuses on the efforts to monitor seismic activities and raise community awareness about earthquake risks. It describes the operations of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), which uses 116 remote seismic stations to record and analyze earthquake data. The script addresses the challenges of relocating residents living along fault lines and the initiatives by local government units to mark hazard zones. It underscores the importance of community education on earthquake hazards, evacuation plans, and emergency preparedness. The segment ends with practical advice for the public during an earthquake, such as seeking shelter under sturdy furniture and moving to open spaces once the shaking stops. It also mentions the unique considerations for those living near shores, who may need to move to higher grounds due to tsunami risks. The script concludes with a call for ongoing preparedness and education as the best defense against the unpredictable nature of earthquakes.

Keywords

💡West Valley Fault System

The West Valley Fault System is a significant geological feature in the Philippines, stretching over 100 kilometers and traversing through several provinces and cities, including Metro Manila. It is a major fault line that poses a significant risk of causing earthquakes. In the video, the West Valley Fault System is highlighted as a potential source of a devastating earthquake, which could result in the loss of thousands of lives and extensive property damage, as it is located near densely populated areas.

💡Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake refers to the strength of an earthquake on the Richter scale, where 7.2 indicates a major earthquake. The video discusses the possibility of such an earthquake occurring along the West Valley Fault System, which could lead to catastrophic consequences. The term is used to illustrate the scale of the disaster that could be unleashed if the 'big one' were to happen, with potential death tolls and structural damages being a significant part of the discussion.

💡Ring of Fire

The Ring of Fire is a horseshoe-shaped area around the Pacific Ocean where many volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur due to the movement of tectonic plates. The Philippines is situated within this zone, making it prone to seismic and volcanic activities. In the context of the video, the Ring of Fire is mentioned to emphasize the country's vulnerability to earthquakes, including the potential for a massive quake along the West Valley Fault System.

💡Seismic Stations

Seismic stations are facilities equipped with instruments to monitor and measure seismic activity, such as earthquakes. The video mentions that there are 116 seismic stations across the Philippines, which are crucial for detecting and recording earthquakes. These stations play a vital role in understanding and predicting seismic events, allowing for the collection of data that can be used to assess the risk and prepare for potential earthquakes.

💡Epicenter

The epicenter of an earthquake is the point on the Earth's surface directly above where the earthquake originates. In the video, the term is used to describe the location where the ground shaking would be the most intense, using the analogy of a light bulb to illustrate how the intensity decreases with distance from the source. Understanding the epicenter is important for assessing the potential impact and damage an earthquake can cause.

💡National Building Code

The National Building Code of the Philippines is a set of regulations that govern the construction of buildings and structures to ensure they are safe and durable, including withstanding seismic activities. The video discusses the need to review and update the code, which was adopted in 1977, to ensure that buildings can better withstand earthquakes. This is crucial for minimizing casualties and damage during a major seismic event.

💡Earthquake Impact Reduction Study

An earthquake impact reduction study is a comprehensive analysis that assesses the potential effects of an earthquake on a region, including the loss of life, property damage, and infrastructure disruption. The video references a study conducted for Metropolitan Manila, which predicts that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake could result in the loss of thousands of lives and significant structural damage. Such studies are essential for planning and preparing for potential disasters.

💡Fault Line

A fault line is a fracture or zone of fractures between two blocks of the Earth's crust, where earthquakes are likely to occur. The video focuses on the West Valley Fault System as a prominent fault line in the Philippines. Residents living near fault lines, like those in the barangay of Tondo, are at a higher risk of experiencing the effects of earthquakes, which is why understanding and preparing for such risks is crucial.

💡Duck, Cover, and Hold

Duck, Cover, and Hold is a safety protocol advised during an earthquake. It involves taking cover under a sturdy object and holding on until the shaking stops. The video emphasizes this protocol as a crucial part of personal preparedness to minimize the risk of injury during an earthquake. This advice is particularly important for those living in areas prone to seismic activity.

💡Tsunami

A tsunami is a series of ocean waves caused by a large-scale disturbance in the sea, often resulting from an underwater earthquake. The video mentions the additional risk of tsunamis for those living near the shore, highlighting the need for quick evacuation to higher grounds during an earthquake. Understanding the potential for tsunamis is vital for coastal communities to prepare for and respond to seismic events.

💡Evacuation Area

An evacuation area is a designated safe zone where people can go to escape the immediate dangers of a disaster, such as an earthquake. The video stresses the importance of knowing the location of evacuation areas and having an emergency plan in place. This is a critical aspect of community preparedness to ensure the safety of residents during a major earthquake.

Highlights

The house in barangay To-Nasan, Muntinlupa City, is located near the West Valley Fault system, posing a significant earthquake risk.

The West Valley Fault system is a 100-kilometer fault line that traverses several densely populated areas in the Philippines.

The term 'big one' refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could be caused by the movement of the West Valley Fault.

The possibility of a massive earthquake in the Philippines is real, given its location in the Ring of Fire and the presence of over 150 active faults.

The 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake serves as a stark reminder of the devastating impact earthquakes can have on densely populated areas.

A 2004 study estimates that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Metro Manila could result in the loss of thousands of lives and significant structural damage.

The National Building Code of the Philippines, adopted in 1977, provides standards for structures to withstand earthquakes, but experts suggest it needs reviewing.

The Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines is tasked with updating the national structural code to include guidelines for earthquake resistance.

There are 116 seismic stations across the Philippines that monitor and transmit data on earthquakes to the PHIVOLCS office in Quezon City.

Some local government units have marked hazard zones along the fault lines, but challenges remain in relocating inhabitants.

Residents near fault lines are advised to familiarize themselves with evacuation areas and prepare emergency supply kits.

The 'duck, cover, and hold' method is recommended for individuals to protect themselves during strong ground shaking.

People living near the shore are advised to move to higher grounds quickly due to the threat of tsunami following an earthquake.

Despite the unpredictability of earthquakes, being prepared and informed is currently the best defense against their impacts.

Transcripts

[Music]

from afford the home of nanaelia looks

like any other house in barangay to

nasan in Muntinlupa City

built before the 1970s it's one of the

first houses in the barangay

but through the years the house has been

bleeding from a danger that Lies Beneath

the land it stands on

it was built near the west of

valleyfault system

a fault line threatening to cause havoc

and result in tens and thousands of

deaths

[Music]

February 6 2023 a magnitude 7.8

earthquake struck turkey and Syria

houses and buildings were reduced to

Rubble

more than 50 000 lives were lost

the deadly earthquake in turkey and

Syria refresh the nagging question could

the same or even worse massive Quake

happen in the Philippines after all the

Philippines is located in the ring of

fire a long horseshoe-shaped geological

belt along the Pacific Ocean

characterized by active volcanoes and

frequent earthquakes we have around more

than 150 active faults so some of these

faults are small and some of these are

are large so are big in length we are

all monitoring these active faults

because we have 116 seismic stations

spread all over the country one of these

active vaults is the West valleyfault

system a 100 kilometer fault that

traverses Bulacan Rizal Quezon City

Marikina pasig Makati Taguig Muntinlupa

Cavite and Laguna a stretch of default

is located in Metro Manila which has

some of the most densely populated

cities in the country

[Music]

there are theories that so-called the

big one will occur if the West Valley

fault system moves and causes a

magnitude 7.2 earthquake the term big

one was originally coined for the worst

case scenario that might be generated by

the West Valley fold small 7.2 so that's

the worst case because based on the

length it's that's a maximum mounted

earthquake that it can generate I think

that I cannot say exactly the year but

there were one or two small events along

the West Valley Foot I think it's in

2018 or 2017. if you're near the

epicenter of course the ground shaking

that you would feel would be stronger a

good analogy would be a light bulb okay

so above say it's 10 watts and if you're

closer to the valve of course the

intensity of light that I use it would

be stronger as say you're like farther

from the bulb

the Japan International cooperation

agency metropolitan Manila Development

Authority and fivax conducted an

earthquake impact reduction study for

metropolitan Manila released in March

2004 the study says that a magnitude 7.2

earthquake caused by the West Valley

fault may result in the loss of

thousands of lives and the destruction

of many structures in the country's

capital region it likewise indicates

that such a powerful Templar may bring

death to 33 500 people and injury to one

hundred thousand six hundred as well as

heavy damage 2 or total collapse of

around 168

000 residential buildings a 7.2

magnitude earthquake May also damage

roads and bridges according to the same

study as eruption of fires are also seen

as highly possible the analysis was

released in 2004 or 19 years ago in

metro manila's population has grown

since thus in another study titled

greater Metro Manila area risk analysis

project released in 2013 the possible

death toll from a magnitude 7.2

earthquake in highly urbanized Metro

Manila is pegged at more than 37 000.

based on our poly seismic data the

request interval is between 400 to 600

years

and the last time it moved was in 1658

so 1658 that's uh plus 400 which is the

lower limit that's 2058. so uh again um

it could be uh in 2015 or it could be

plus 600 years plus 200 years more there

are uncertainties okay my error and plus

or minus probably several decades and so

[Music]

that's the reason why we're saying that

it may happen uh before 16 2015 or it

could be happen 2058 or it could happen

on the upper limit which is the 600

years

we are walking along by Street in

barangay tonight and according to the

fault finder website of evox this street

is along the west of valleyfault system

we were able to speak with some of the

residents here who told us that they are

also worried about the dangers of a

possible earthquake

among the residents of the street or

spouses Mellie and Abbott they have been

living here for more than 20 years and

have been witness to some changes in

their area which they attribute to the

fault line

thank you

she bought a house here in the 1970s not

knowing it was near a fault line for the

past 50 years saw her family grow in

this home

cracks have also taken over other parts

of nanaelia's home

despite the risks of staying here for

Nana Lilia her home was also a permanent

witness to the vibrant life she has

lived so far since 1970s

as we walk around barangay to nasan we

noticed some craps on the streets

with all the risks of the big one

happening is there a way to prepare for

it and minimize damage and casualties

there's no technology yet that you know

like can say exactly when an earthquake

would happen down to the minute this or

even or even you know like that month

exactly the best way of course is uh uh

we we have to follow the uh the building

code so earthquakes per se don't kill

people it's the collapse of human-built

structures such as buildings houses

walls dumps that may claim lives the

National Building Code of the

Philippines was adopted in 1977 and

provides a framework of minimum

standards and requirements to regulate

and control the location site design

quality of materials construction use

occupancy and maintenance of structures

however experts have stressed the need

to review the 46 year old National

Building Code we need to be sure that

that our structures are

strong and durable when it comes when

the big one happens as what we have

observed Turkey

[Music]

um

all of a sudden it crumbles to the

ground perhaps

personal opinion

[Music]

[Music]

is the president of the association of

Structural Engineers of the Philippines

which is tasked to craft the national

structural code of the Philippines an

update of the code is I to be released

this year it will include guidelines on

structures ability to withstand

earthquakes

National Building

[Music]

foreign

[Music]

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building

for vivoc sport they say they are in

constant monitoring of earthquakes

reported Nationwide watch Thunders are

on the clock charge in fevox office in

Quezon City there are 116 remote seismic

stations scattered across the country

once they record earthquake anywhere in

the Philippines they transmit that data

to fivo's office here in Quezon City and

the watch standards process those data

to determine the earthquake's epicenter

magnitude a time of occurrence as well

as theft there have been calls to

relocate inhabitants along the fault

line in fact some local government units

have already marked areas deemed as

Hazard zones the problem however is that

some structures were built even before

the site of default lines were

discovered before an earthquake happens

it would be best to familiarize yourself

with earthquake hazards in your area it

is important to know where the

evacuation area is and prepare an

emergency supply kit what should we do

again if there's strong ground shaking

you do the duck cover and hold you go

under the table you stay there for the

duration of the shaking and then once

the shaking stops you have to evacuate

immediately and go to an open space or

an open area if Outdoors the public is

advised to move to an open space and

avoid electric posts Bridges and

buildings people living near the shore

on the other hand need to move quickly

to Higher Grounds due to the threat of

tsunami and while earthquakes remain

unpredictable despite available

Technologies One's best weapon now is

being prepared and informed this is Neil

Mercado for inquirer.net

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