Gravitas: CPEC in danger? China sets conditions on Pakistan for new BRI investments

Summary

China's International Department Minister, Leo Xianchao, has emphasized the need for improved security in Pakistan during an event in Islamabad, stating that the business environment cannot thrive without it. This message comes amidst concerns over the security of Chinese investments and personnel in Pakistan, which are crucial for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Recent visits by Pakistan's Prime Minister to China have yielded less investment than expected, and there's a noticeable shift in how China prioritizes its relationship with Pakistan. The 2024 joint statement between the two countries highlights security concerns, particularly after attacks on Chinese nationals. China is now seeking assurances of a safe and stable business environment in Pakistan, hinting at a reevaluation of its investment strategy.

Takeaways

• 🇨🇳 China's Minister of the International Department, Leo Xianchao, emphasized the need for improved security in Pakistan to enhance the business environment and strengthen China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) cooperation.
• 🔒 Security threats are identified as the primary concern affecting Chinese investments in Pakistan, suggesting that without security, the business environment cannot improve.
• 🤝 Despite being termed 'all-weather allies,' recent developments indicate a potential strain in China-Pakistan relations due to security issues and the business environment.
• 🏢 Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, returned from a visit to China with fewer commitments and investments than anticipated, reflecting a lukewarm response from Beijing.
• 📉 There's a noticeable change in China's stance on Pakistan from 'highest priority' to just 'a priority' in its foreign policy, indicating a shift in China's strategic considerations.
• 🚧 The CPEC, once a flagship project, faces challenges in Pakistan, including political instability, security issues, and dissatisfaction among the local population.
• 🛑 The Gwadar Port, a significant CPEC project, has not met expectations, raising questions about the effectiveness and return on investment of other CPEC projects.
• 🔄 The 2024 joint statement between Pakistan and China highlighted the need for security, particularly mentioning the attack on Chinese engineers at the Dasu Dam project, showing China's growing concern for the safety of its citizens.
• 🛂 Pakistan has taken steps to address security concerns by sacking officials after attacks on Chinese nationals, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen.
• 💼 China's future investments in Pakistan are expected to be more cautious, with a focus on security and stability, rather than special favors or unconditional support.

Q & A

What was the main message conveyed by China's minister of the international department during the event in Islamabad?

China's minister of the international department emphasized that without security, the business environment cannot improve, and security threats are the main hazards disturbing China-Pakistan cooperation.

What is the primary factor shaking the confidence of Chinese investors in Pakistan?

The primary factor shaking the confidence of Chinese investors in Pakistan is the security situation in the country.

What was the outcome of Pakistan Prime Minister Shabah Sharif's visit to China in terms of securing new investments?

Pakistan Prime Minister Shabah Sharif's visit to China did not yield significant new investments, as Beijing showed a lukewarm response to Islamabad's hopes for another round of major investments.

How has the description of China-Pakistan relations evolved in the joint statements from 2018 to 2024?

In 2018 and 2022, China described its ties with Pakistan as the 'highest priority' in its foreign policy. However, in 2023 and 2024, the description changed to 'just a priority,' indicating a shift in the level of importance given to the relationship.

What is the dilemma China is facing regarding its relationship with Pakistan?

China is facing the dilemma of whether to stay committed to its investments and projects in Pakistan or to reconsider its involvement due to the security risks and political instability in the country.

What are the major concerns China has regarding its interests in Pakistan?

China's major concerns in Pakistan include political stability, security, and the increasing attacks on Chinese nationals and projects within the country.

How has the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) performed in terms of meeting its objectives?

The CPEC has faced several hurdles, and despite significant investments, there is little to show for it, with projects like the Gwadar Port underperforming compared to expectations.

What was the special mention in the 2024 joint statement between Pakistan and China regarding security?

The 2024 joint statement had a special mention of the suicide attack on Chinese engineers working on the Dasu dam project, highlighting China's concerns about the security provisions for Chinese people in Pakistan.

What actions has Pakistan taken in response to security incidents involving Chinese nationals?

After the 2024 Bisham attack, Pakistan sacked security officials and police officers in charge of security for the first time, indicating a response to the security incidents involving Chinese nationals.

What is China's stance on future investments in Pakistan considering the current challenges?

China has assured some investments in Pakistan but with a strict business approach and no special favors, as Beijing no longer views Pakistan as a high priority for its foreign policy.