No Bust Blackjack Strategy: Does it Work?

Summary

这段视频解释了在二十一点游戏中采取"永不加牌以避免爆牌"的策略是否可行。虽然这种策略看似可以避免自己的行动导致失利,但从数学概率上来看,相比遵循基本策略,它会让你输掉八倍于基本策略的钱。因此,即使心理上难以接受爆牌的风险,采用基本策略才是正确的打法。要想真正获胜,单单遵守基本策略还不够,还需要学习点数计算等更高级的技巧。视频最后呼吁订阅频道继续学习如何合法赢得赌场。

Takeaways

• 😐 在21点游戏中,如果你爆牌了就输掉了游戏,即使庄家的手牌很差,你也不会因此获胜。
• 😕 有些人采用"不敲牌以免爆牌"的策略,试图避免输牌,但这种策略实际上会让你输掉更多钱。
• 🤔 如果庄家的牌面是7或更高,庄家的平均手牌分数是18.4分,如果你手持12到16分时不敲牌,你会更容易输掉游戏。
• 😨 采用"不敲牌以免爆牌"的策略会让赌场占有约4%的优势,而采用基本策略只会给赌场约0.5%的优势。
• 💡 遵循基本策略可以最大程度减少你在21点游戏中的损失,每小时预计损失12-13美元(赌注25美元/盘)。
• ☠️ 采用"不敲牌以免爆牌"策略会让你每小时损失约100美元,比采用基本策略高出8倍。
• ✅ 虽然敲牌时有可能会爆牌并损失当前投注金额,但从长远来看,敲牌仍是数学上最佳选择。
• 📖 你可以从网上免费下载基本策略图表,了解每种情况下的最优策略。
• 🏆 要真正战胜赌场,仅仅掌握基本策略是不够的,你还需要学习合法的算牌技术。
• 📢 该视频旨在教会观众采用正确的策略来减少在21点游戏中的损失,并推荐学习算牌技术来获胜。

Q & A

1.根据视频,如果你在21点游戏中爆牌,会发生什么情况?

如果你在21点游戏中爆牌,即使最后庄家的手牌很糟糕并且也会爆牌,你仍然会输掉游戏。

2.视频提到了一种"不爆牌"策略,这种策略的关键是什么?

这种"不爆牌"策略的关键是,如果你手上的牌有可能爆牌,就永远不要再要牌。

3.视频解释了为什么这种策略看似合理但实际上是错误的,主要原因是什么?

主要原因是如果庄家的牌面是7或更高,那么庄家手牌的平均分数约为18.4分。因此,如果你停在12到16分这些手牌上不再要牌,反而会更容易输给庄家。

4.相比于遵循"基本策略",采用"不爆牌"策略会给赌场带来多大的优势?

采用"不爆牌"策略会给赌场带来约4%的优势,而遵循基本策略只会让赌客处于约0.5%的劣势。

5.如果一个小时下注25美元,遵循"不爆牌"策略和遵循基本策略,每小时预期的损失分别是多少?

遵循"不爆牌"策略,每小时预期损失约100美元;遵循基本策略,每小时预期损失约12-13美元。

6.视频认为尽管爆牌会让人觉得很痛苦,但在某些情况下仍然需要选择要牌,这是为什么?

因为从长远来看,要牌可以帮助你赢得更多,虽然短期内可能会爆牌输掉。数学上证明在某些情况下要牌才是正确的决策。

7.视频中提到了一种学习正确打法的资源是什么?

视频提到可以从他们的网站上免费下载"基本策略表",这个表格展示了针对每一个手牌情况下数学模拟得出的最佳打法。

8.仅仅遵循基本策略就足以战胜赌场吗?

不,仅仅遵循基本策略只能减少一些损失,但要想真正战胜赌场,你还需要学习其他技巧,比如记牌术。

9.视频的两位主角分别是谁?他们从事什么工作?

两位主角分别是Colin和David(Loudon Ofton),他们在Blackjack Apprenticeship工作,曾经培训过大量成功的记牌高手。

10.视频最后邀请观众做了什么?

视频最后邀请观众订阅他们的频道,以获取更多记牌技巧、赢钱故事以及如何战胜赌场的更新。

Outlines

00:00

🃏 不要爆牌就能赢得21点游戏吗?

这段内容讨论了在21点游戏中是否应该采用‘不爆牌’的策略来赢得比赛。开始提出了一种看似合理的策略:如果手里的牌可能会让你爆牌,那就不要再要牌了,等待庄家爆牌。但通过数学计算发现,这种策略实际上会让你输钱的速度增加8倍。正确的做法是遵循基本策略表,即在庄家的牌是7点或更高时打12到16分的手牌。尽管有时感觉很痛苦,但从长远来看,适当地拿牌才是最佳选择。

Keywords

💡基本策略

基本策略指根据数学模拟提供的概率分布,为每一种可能出现的手牌组合规定了最佳的行动。这是游戏中最基础的策略,旨在使博彩场所对玩家的优势最小化。视频中提到,如果遵循基本策略,玩家的预期损失会低于使用"不爆牌"策略,因为它考虑了长期收益。

💡计数牌

计数牌是一种合法的技巧,通过跟踪已经发出的牌,来判断剩余牌组中有利或不利于玩家的牌的比例。当有利牌多时,玩家可以增加下注;当不利牌多时,玩家则可降低下注或停止游戏。视频中提及计数牌是击败赌场的关键,去学习该技巧可以获得优势。

💡赌场优势

赌场在各种赌博游戏中都拥有一定的统计优势,即长期下来赌场的预期收益为正。视频解释了如果采用"不爆牌"策略,赌场在21点游戏中的优势会提高到约4%,而如果采用基本策略,优势只有约0.5%。减小赌场优势是玩家获胜的关键。

💡打爆

指玩家在要牌后手牌的总值超过21点,也就是"爆掉"。一旦打爆,玩家就会直接输掉当前的赌注。视频强调不要避免打爆,因为有时打爆比不打爆更有利,尽管打爆会带来心理上的痛苦。尽量采用基本策略来获得更高的长期收益。

💡负期望

即长期下来玩家的预期收益为负值。视频提到,即使遵循基本策略,玩家在每小时下注25美元的情况下,预期亏损也在12-13美元左右。而使用"不爆牌"策略,每小时的预期亏损会达到约100美元。因此尽管容易打爆会带来心理压力,但长期来看遵循基本策略更加合理。

💡不爆牌策略

不爆牌策略指无论手牌总值如何,都避免要牌而使手牌值超过21点。虽然这看似安全,但视频指出,数学分析表明,在赌场荷官亮牌为7或更大值时,如果玩家手牌为12-16点则不打爆反而会输钱更多。因此不爆牌策略给赌场带来了过大的优势,不应采用。

💡心理压力

视频指出,很多玩家采用"不爆牌"策略是出于心理压力,他们更难承受自己要牌后爆掉的结果。这种直接导致损失的压力,比赌场方击败玩家时的压力更大。然而视频劝说玩家要学会面对这种心理压力,遵循数学期望最大化的基本策略。

💡数学模拟

数学模拟是通过计算机编程模拟大量次数的21点对局,并统计每种可能情况出现的次数,用以分析每种可能情况下正确的行动策略。基本策略就是建立在这些模拟结果的基础之上的。视频指出有必要遵循这种科学的分析结果。

💡倍率

倍率指在21点游戏中每一次下注的金额。视频中提到如果以25美元的倍率下注并遵循基本策略,每小时的预期亏损只有12-13美元左右。而采用"不爆牌"策略,以同样的倍率下注,每小时亏损将达到约100美元。适当调整倍率也是玩家获胜的策略之一。

💡扑克概率

扑克概率是21点及其它扑克游戏的核心,它决定了在特定情况下采取行动的数学期望值。视频中多次提及不同策略是否有利是基于概率计算的结果。了解扑克概率对于制定合理的打法策略至关重要。计数牌技巧的根基也来自对概率的深入理解。

Highlights

In blackjack, if you bust (go over 21), you lose, even if the dealer would have eventually busted too.

The 'no bust' blackjack strategy - never hitting a hand that could bust - seems deceptively simple but is actually a losing strategy.

If the dealer shows a 7 or higher, their average hand is 18.4, so standing on 12-16 against them is a losing play.

Following the 'no bust' strategy gives the casino about a 4% edge over the player.

Following basic blackjack strategy leaves the player with only about a 0.5% disadvantage.

Using the 'no bust' strategy means losing around 8 times more money per hour than following basic strategy.

While it feels painful to bust your own hand, mathematically it is often the correct play.

Basic strategy charts show the mathematically proper play for every blackjack situation based on simulations.

Some seemingly losing hands according to basic strategy actually minimize losses over the long run.

Basic strategy alone is not enough to gain an edge over the casino; card counting is required.

The speakers have trained blackjack players and earned millions through legal card counting techniques.

Summarizing the key points: the 'no bust' strategy loses more, basic strategy minimizes losses, and card counting can gain an edge.

Transcripts

- In the game of blackjack, if you bust, you lose.

Even if it turns out that the dealer had an awful hand

and they would have busted, too.

So, what if you use a strategy where

you never hit a hand that could bust?

Is that the magic secret to beating the game of blackjack?

I'm Colin, from Blackjack Apprenticeship,

and we've trained more successful card counters than anyone.

And in this video, I'm gonna explain the math

behind the no bust blackjack strategy.

(upbeat music)

Hey, I'm Colin, from Blackjack Apprenticeship.

I'm here with my good friend, David, AKA Loudon Ofton.

And David, you know the feeling when you have an awful hand.

And so what do you do here?

- I'm terrified.

(laughing)

- I wanna take a hit, but I don't wanna bust.

- Okay, so let's say you take a hit, but then you bust,

you lose your $10, and then the dealer

shows that they had a terrible hand.

If you would've stayed, the dealer would have busted.

And you'd be $20 richer than busting and losing that $10.

What if you just never hit a hand that could bust?

We've been training blackjack players for a long time.

We do these things called blackjack bootcamps

that we hold in Vegas.

And I remember a guy coming to me.

It was on day two of the bootcamp.

So day one, we're explaining the fundamentals

of beating blackjack.

Day two, he says, Colin, I watched this guy play

and he just couldn't lose. He was winning.

And so I asked him, "What are you doing to win so much"?

He says, "Well, if I have a hand that could bust,

I just never hit that hand, I let the dealer bust".

And he says, "Colin, is it that simple"?

Well, is it that simple?

- No.

- Unfortunately, no.

Here's the problem.

If the dealer is showing a seven or higher

then the average hand that they're gonna make

is actually an 18.4.

If you stay on 12 through 16,

if you stay on one of these hands that you say, "Well,

I don't wanna bust, I'll let them bust".

You're actually setting yourself up to lose much more often

than if you were to take the risk of hitting your hand.

So, why don't people wanna hit a 12 through 16?

- They don't wanna bust.

Like psychologically, it's more painful to feel like

you were a part of you losing your hand,

than to just be the innocent bystander

of the dealer beating you.

But the math is astonishing.

If you follow this no bust strategy,

it gives the casino about a 4% edge over you as a player.

If you follow basic strategy,

which says to hit a 12 through 16 against the dealers,

seven or higher, then you're gonna have

about a .5% disadvantage.

So that means you're gonna lose eight times more money

by following the no bust strategy,

then by following proper basic strategy.

Think of it this way.

If you follow basic strategy at blackjack

and bang $25 a hand, at the end of an hour

your expected loss, as far as the math of the game

is you're gonna lose about $12 or $13 per hour,

just betting $25 and following the basic strategy chart.

If you say, "Well, I don't wanna bust,

so I'm gonna follow this no bust strategy".

You're gonna expect to lose about $100 per hour.

So $12, $13 an hour of negative expectation

or $100 an hour of negative expectations.

I don't know about you, but I don't wanna lose

eight times more to the casino.

- No.

- Even though it feels, it hurts in your heart

to hit this hand and bust,

what do you gotta do?

- It's the right decision.

- So how do you know it's the right decision?

- Because you know that more cards

will help you then hurt you over time.

- And is there somewhere you can learn

this proper decision for every hand?

- Well, you start with basic strategy.

- So what's this basic strategy, David?

- Hands like 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 are gonna hit

against the dealer's face card.

- Yeah. So basic strategy is a chart.

You can download it from our website for free

and mathematical simulations were run

to show the proper way to play every hand of blackjack,

the mathematically proper.

That doesn't mean you're going to win

every time you hit a 13 against the dealer's 10,

but it gives you the best odds over the long haul.

And the problem is some of these hands,

they're a losing hand.

And what that means is you're gonna lose,

it's negative expectation, whether you hit or stand,

but you're gonna lose more money if you follow this

no bust strategy, then if you follow...

- Basic strategy.

- Basic strategy.

- Basic strategy, isn't just enough

to get you over the edge.

It's enough to lose less. But there's more.

- That's right.

If you wanna actually beat the game of blackjack,

you need more than basic strategy.

You definitely need more than the no bust strategy.

So take the time, if you wanna beat the casinos,

to learn card counting, to legally gain the edge,

which is what we've done for millions of dollars

and what we've trained hundreds of other people to do.

If you just wanna enjoy our videos,

subscribe below and you can get card counting tips

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