🚨 An Ominous Signal Just Flashed for Stocks!!
Summary
TLDRDas Skript des heutigen Finanzvideos deckt eine Vielzahl von Themen ab, darunter den Aktienmarkt, den Rückgang der Inflation, die jüngsten Trades von Milliardärsfondsmanagern und eine massive Cyberattacke auf den Iran. Es analysiert die Auswirkungen auf den S&P 500, die VIX-Indizes und die Währungsschwankungen, bietet Einblicke in die Portfolioentscheidungen von bekannten Investoren und präsentiert eine ominöse Signal für den Markt, die durch die Aussagen von Mike Wilson hervorgerufen wurde. Zudem werden geopolitische Spannungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffe und Gold diskutiert.
Takeaways
- 📈 Der Aktienmarkt schließt höher, mit Nachweis eines abklingenden Inflationsdrucks.
- 💡 Ein massiver Cyberangriff auf den Iranischen Zentralbank und drohende Signale für den Aktienmarkt.
- 📊 Die S&P 500 ist wieder über ihrem 50-Tage-Volume-gewichteten Durchschnitt, während der NASDAQ-Index und der Russell 2000 noch nicht ganz diesen Schwellenwert erreicht haben.
- 📉 Die zwei schwächsten Sektoren auf dem Markt sind Energie und Verbraucherdiscretionary.
- 📉 Der VIX-Index hat sich beeindruckend zurückgebogen, was möglicherweise eine Kaufgelegenheit für Volatilität darstellt.
- 💰 Einige Hedge-Fund-Manager haben ihre Positionen im zweiten Quartal geändert, was auf interessante Strategien hindeutet.
- 💡 Die Inflationsraten sinken, was als positives Signal für den Aktienmarkt angesehen werden kann.
- 📊 Die S&P 500 hat sich über 45% in 4 Tagen erhöht, was historisch oft ein bullishes Signal ist.
- 🌐 Die globale Makroökonomie und die Geopoltik beeinflussen die Rohstoffmärkte und die Währungen.
- 🛡️ Es gibt eine drohende Cyberbedrohung und geopolitische Spannungen, die den Iran betreffen könnten.
- 🤔 Mike Wilson von Morgan Stanley hat wieder eine Marktprognose gemacht, die einige Beobachter besorgt macht, da seine vorherigen Vorhersagen oft fehlgeschlagen sind.
Q & A
Was ist das Hauptthema des heutigen Finanzmarktberichts?
-Das Hauptthema ist die positiven Entwicklungen auf dem Aktienmarkt, einschließlich der abklingenden Inflation, Aktionen von Milliardärs-Hedge-Fund-Managern und einer massiven Cyberattacke auf den Iran.
Was zeigt der S&P 500 Index in Bezug auf die Marktentwicklung?
-Der S&P 500 Index zeigt, dass der Markt weiterhin von seinem starken Verkauf im letzten Monat erholt und nun wieder über dem 50-Tage Volume Weighted Average liegt.
Welche Sektoren sind im aktuellen Marktzustande am schwächsten?
-Die am schwächsten Sektoren auf dem Markt sind der Energiesektor und der Verbraucherdiscretionary-Sektor.
Was ist das beste Zeichen für den Aktienmarkt, basierend auf der VIX-Index-Entwicklung?
-Der stärkste Rückgang der VIX-Index, der von 65 auf einen 16-Handle sinkt, könnte ein gutes Kaufsignal für Volatilität bieten, insbesondere wenn man auf einen Bullish Call Spread setzt.
Wie hat sich die Inflationserwartung im aktuellen Markt verändert?
-Die Inflationserwartungen haben sich positiv verändert, mit einer besser als erwarteten monatlichen Inflation von 2,9%, was auf eine abklingende Inflation hindeutet.
Was bedeuten die jüngsten Aktionen von Milliardärs-Hedge-Fund-Managern?
-Die Aktionen der Milliardärs-Hedge-Fund-Manager, die in ihren Form 13F eingereicht haben, zeigen, welche Aktien sie gekauft und verkauft haben, was auf ihre Marktprognosen hindeutet.
Was ist Warren Buffetts neueste Investition?
-Warren Buffett hat eine neue Position in Ulta Beauty aufgebaut und hat seine Position in Snowflake verkauft.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Marktbewegungen für die zukünftige Fed-Politik?
-Die abklingende Inflation und die stabilisierende Währung könnten ein Zeichen dafür sein, dass die Fed ihre Zinssenkungen in naher Zukunft überdenken könnte.
Welche Rolle spielt die Immigration in der aktuellen Inflation?
-Die Immigration hat möglicherweise einen größeren Einfluss auf die Inflation als erkannt, da die Nachfrage in vielen Branchen stärker als die Angebotsseite reagiert hat.
Was ist das ominöse Signal für den Aktienmarkt, das in dem Bericht erwähnt wird?
-Das ominöse Signal ist eine neue Marktprognose von Mike Wilson von Morgan Stanley, der keine großen Aktienmarkt kollaps vorsieht, was einige Beobachter beunruhigen könnte, da er in den letzten Jahren eine Reihe von falschen Vorhersagen gemacht hat.
Was sind die möglichen Auswirkungen der Cyberattacke auf den Iran?
-Die Cyberattacke auf den Iran könnte geopolitische Spannungen erhöhen und Auswirkungen auf den Rohstoffmarkt, insbesondere auf den Ölpreis, haben.
Was sind die Erwartungen für die nächste Fed-Tagung in Bezug auf Zinssenkungen?
-Die Märkte erwarten, dass die Fed bei ihrer nächsten Tagung in Jackson Hole Hinweise auf eine mögliche Zinssenkung geben wird, insbesondere wenn die Arbeitsmarktzahlen günstig sind.
Was sind die langfristigen Auswirkungen der aktuellen US-Regierungsschulden auf die Wirtschaft?
-Die rapide steigenden US-Regierungsschulden könnten langfristig zu einer Unsicherheit führen und die Nachfrage nach sicheren Anlagen wie kurzfristigen US-Bundesanleihen erhöhen.
Outlines
📈 Aktienmarkt steigt - Hedge-Fund-Managers zeigen neue Trades
Der erste Absatz des Skripts fasst die aktuellen Entwicklungen auf dem Aktienmarkt zusammen, mit einem Schwerpunkt auf der Abkühlung der Inflation und den neuesten Handelsaktivitäten von Hedge-Fund-Managern. Der S&P 500 hat nach einem harten Verkaufssturz wieder zugeschlagen, und es wird auf eine massive Cyberattacke auf den Iran und ein ominöses Signal für den Aktienmarkt hingewiesen. Die Diskussion umfasst Marktstruktur, Volatilität, VIX-Index und Optionenstrategien, wie Bullish Call Spreads und die Nutzung von Volatilität, um Schutz oder Hedges zu erwerben. Zudem werden die aktuellen Marktfaktoren wie Schwächen in der Energie- und Verbrauchsdiscretionary-Branche, sowie die Stärke der Währung und Inflationserwartungen diskutiert.
📉 Analyse des Aktienmarkt-Rückgangs und saisonale Schwächen
Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die historischen Schwächen von Aktien im August und September und die Bedeutung, dass der S&P 500 über 5.000 Punkte bleibt. Es wird auf den Sam-Regel-Indikator eingegangen, der eine steigende Arbeitslosigkeit signalisiert, die oft mit einer kommenden Rezession assoziiert ist. Trotzdem zeigt die Historie, dass die US-Aktienmärkte oft stärker sind, wenn der Sam-Regel ausgelöst wird. Es wird auch auf die positiven Gewinnerwartungen und die Sektoren, die das Wachstum anführen, eingegangen, sowie auf die Chancen, dass Small-Cap-Anteile in der Zukunft wieder einen Durchbruch erleben könnten.
🌐 Einflüsse der Immigration auf Inflation und Wirtschaftszyklen
Der dritte Absatz diskutiert die Auswirkungen der Immigration auf die Inflation und die Versorgung mit Gütern und Dienstleistungen. Es wird argumentiert, dass die Zuwanderung in den letzten Jahren stärker als die Angebotsseite der Industrien zugenommen hat, was zu einer Verzerrung geführt hat. Es wird auch auf die mögliche Deflation und die Tendenz der Märkte und Volkswirtschaften, um das durchschnittliche Niveau zu schwanken, hingewiesen. Zudem werden die Prognosen von Nordia für die weitere Abkühlung der Kern-Inflation und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Zentralbankpolitik diskutiert.
💼 Aktionen von Hedge-Fund-Managern und ihre Portfolio-Strategien
In diesem Absatz werden die Handelsaktivitäten und Portfolio-Strategien einiger bekannter Hedge-Fund-Manager wie Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman und Michael Burry beschrieben. Buffett hat neue Positionen in Ulta Beauty aufgebaut und Snowflake verkauft, während seine beste Position bei Bank of America und American Express liegt. Ackman hat eine neue Position bei Nike aufgebaut und bei Hilton und Chipotle Restaurants gehalten. Burry hat seine Positionen in Alibaba und anderen chinesischen Aktien aufgestockt. Die Analyse zeigt, wie diese Manager ihre Positionen im Hinblick auf die Marktbewegungen und ihre eigenen Überzeugungen anpassen.
📊 Prognosen und Analysen von Hedge-Fund-Managern für den Markt
Der fünfte Absatz präsentiert die Meinungen und Analysen von Hedge-Fund-Managern wie David Einhorn und Stanley Druckenmiller. Einhorn hat seine Positionen in Green Brick Partners und anderen Unternehmen verringert, während Druckenmiller seine Positionen in Coupang und anderen Technologieunternehmen reduziert hat. Es wird auch auf die langfristigen Erfolge von Tabakunternehmen hingewiesen, die trotz der Unsicherheiten für die Zukunft als investitionswürdig angesehen werden. Zudem wird auf die schlechte Vorhersageleistung von Mike Wilson von Morgan Stanley eingegangen, der wieder eine Marktvorhersung abgegeben hat, obwohl er kürzlich davor gewarnt wurde, keine weiteren Vorhersagen zu machen.
🌍 Globale Makroökonomie, geopolitische Spannungen und Rohstoffe
Der letzte Absatz des Skripts behandelt die globale Makroökonomie, geopolitischen Spannungen und Einflüsse auf Rohstoffe. Es wird auf die bevorstehenden wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren wie dem Arbeitsmarktbericht und den Fed-Sitzungen eingegangen, die die Zentralbankpolitik beeinflussen könnten. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen von Cyberangriffen auf den Iran und die möglichen geopolitischen Auswirkungen auf den Ölmarkt diskutiert. Es wird auch auf die Rolle von Gold als Schutz in Zeiten von Unsicherheit und die bevorstehenden Marktveranstaltungen und -berichte hingewiesen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Inflation
💡Hedgefondsmanager
💡VIX-Index
💡S&P 500
💡Russell 2000
💡Bullish Call Spread
💡Währungsindex
💡Billionaire
💡CPI-Daten
💡Immigrationspolitik
💡Technologieaktien
Highlights
Stocks closed higher with inflation continuing to cool.
Latest trade from billionaire hedge fund managers.
Massive cyber attack on Iran affecting the central bank and ATMs.
S&P 500 recovering and trading above its 50-day volume weighted average.
Energy and consumer discretionary are the weakest sectors.
Market breadth shows mixed readings with 2/3 of stocks above their long-term moving average.
VIX Index crush indicating potential buy the dip opportunity in volatility.
Bullish call spread in VIX options as a preferred method to play volatility.
Options volume data showing a majority of call options being traded.
2-year yield and 10-year bond yields indicating a good sign for risk-on sentiment.
Bitcoin and gold holding ground while crude oil continued its pullback.
Nvidia and other market leaders showing strong performance.
Warren Buffett's latest moves including a new stake in Ulta Beauty and sale of Snowflake.
Historical data suggesting a potential for the stock market to be higher after the Sam rule has been triggered.
Q2 earning season showing better than average results with 79% of companies beating expectations.
Russell 2000 reaching records in the number of days without surpassing its prior high, indicating potential for future outperformance.
S&P annual performance versus the VIX's yearly high suggesting a 50/50 chance for market performance.
CPI printing a two handle for the first time, indicating potential for the Federal Reserve to start trimming rates.
Immigration influx and its impact on inflation and potential future deflation.
Notable billionaire hedge fund managers' latest moves filed in their form 13Fs.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson's market call and its potential implications.
Geopolitical tensions and their impact on commodities and gold.
Transcripts
coming up today stocks close higher with
inflation continuing to cool the latest
trade from billionaire hedge fund
managers a massive Cyber attack on Iran
and we just got an ominous signal for
the stock market you don't want to miss
this one guys let's
[Music]
go and welcome back click Capital
Community another day of higher highs
higher lows in S&P 500 as we continue to
grind back from that sharp sell-off
starting last week with Market color
turning very bullish across the board
red everywhere the bull want it to be
volatility bond yields oil the dollar
and inflation expectation all back to
trending down two weakest sectors out
there energy and consumer discretionary
now got the S&P 500 just back above its
50-day volume weighted average as is the
equal weight S&P Mega cap Tech composite
chart still not quite there as is the
NASDAQ index Dow Jones Industrial just
closed above its 50-day today midcaps
not quite there and lagging behind in
this bounce the Russell 2000 small caps
still a little bit below the 50-day and
just looking at Market structure in
terms of breadth we still have little
mixed readings good news is 2/3 of
stocks still above their long-term
moving average still not getting the
best readings on 52- WE highs versus 52e
lows and look at this Crush in the VIX
Index just truly impressive how hard it
can come down when it does crush 65 last
Monday here we are on the following
Wednesday down at a 16 handle and I'd
think around these levels and even lower
could be potentially offering bit of a
buy the dip opportunity in volatility
different ways to play it my prefer way
is with a bullish call spread in vix
options where you go long and in the
money call option and sell and out of
the money call option you kind of
neutralize the Greeks and even create
positive Theta on the trade that's one
way to do it cuz I can also see the
price of out of- the money put options
coming down and the put call ratio Dro
in as well and I can also see that in
options volume data today now getting
back to majority call options being
traded 58% calls versus 42% puts and
since most of the options Market is
trading near dated options 57% of the
expire in 5 days or less a lot of the
market just chases recent price action
so like I said anyone worried about any
further potential volatility the
election the Middle East the vix at 16
or even lower over the next couple of
days week or so may not be a bad time to
pick up a little Insurance a little
hedges for those that wish to do so one
thing's for sure it's a lot better to
buy insurance down here than it was last
Monday up here like many people were
doing jumping over each other to buy put
options you can see that in the
volatility of the volatility index
something you kind of want to watch for
the price of options as well it's a
great time early last week to sell puts
however coming up now may not be a bad
time to add a few puts if you're into
that sort of thing and stick with me
today cuz I've got a real interesting
one for you I'm going to cover inflation
then I'm going to show you the latest
moves from billionaire hedge fund
managers just had to file their second
quarter form 13 FS letting us know what
stocks they've bought and sold I think
you'll be interested to see some of the
moves they've made of late just looking
at the 2-year yield 396 had a little
Spike up after CPI inflation data came
in as expected today we just got a two
handle for the first time ever in this
cycle with a headline year-over-year
reading coming in a touch better than
expected 2.9% that is good news and as I
had been expecting as well there's a
10year 383 High old bonds creeping back
to yearly highs that's a good sign for
risk on siment and like I said last week
why didn't think it was a big riskof
structural change in the markets as the
dollar Index was trading down typically
if you see a real riskof move especially
with something like the Yang carry trade
apparently blowing up there'd be a
massive rush into Dollars we just didn't
see that so that's bullish for stocks
and there's the Yen stabilizing as well
coiling up and for sure we could get a
retest down like I said wouldn't be
surprised to see this candle retested
however be looking for support there we
should form a major bullish Divergence
if we have seen the worst of it with the
Yen carry trade Bitcoin still
consolidating here seems to be equal
forces of both bulls and bears keeping
the price in a bit of a gridlock gold
still holding ground and crude oil
continued its pullback today and we've
got Market leaders Nvidia reclaim cling
the 50-day vwap another nice move up and
some semis like ARM Holding started last
Monday $98 a share here we are $125 a
share and financials were quite strong
today birkshire Hathaway up 1.4% and
stick with me cuz I'll show you what
Warren Buffett's latest moves have been
as well first let me just share some
data research and news with you guys to
get you all updated here's a
visualization of the bounceback we've
had from last Monday low had a pretty
good bounce in Tech Nvidia up 30%
Bitcoin 20% meta 17% the Nick ey which
was leading all the fear has actually
reclaimed all those losses already along
with a lot of other big stocks having a
real sharp bounce back here one thing I
noticed recently as well there's an ETF
you may not have heard of the Invesco
S&P 500 top 50 owns the top 50 stocks
all of a sudden the last three sessions
especially after that Monday low it's
had a huge amount of volume come in
triple daily averages so it looks like a
lot of institutional money is still
betting on large cap growth and there's
the spread of the Russell 2000 versus
the S&P top 50 that t f xlg you can see
it's having quite a bit of a pullback
after we had a real blast off last month
so a bit of volatility in this small cap
rotation trade and so we're in the month
of August the last two August months we
had in 23 and 22 actually finished lower
September even worse the last four
septembers we actually finished lower on
the S&P 500 some of them pretty deep two
at 5% one at 99.6% so like I said if the
S&P doesn't go below 5,000 that's really
the best case scenario if we can make it
the election still holding a five handle
on the SP that would be the Market
showing a lot of resilience in an
otherwise seasonally weak period another
technical signal we just got S&P 500
surging over 45% in 4 days looking back
in history when it does that and it's
above its long-term moving average 84%
of the time it's higher a year later so
a bit of a momentum Burst when the
Market's already in uptrend is quite
often a bullish thing and all throughout
Financial media headlines a bit over a
week ago after the jobs report came in a
bit hot was a Sam rule being triggered
it's basically another way of measuring
unemployment trending up typically
associ iated with recessions around the
corner however just looking at history
US Stocks typically Trend down or go
sideways in the lead up to the
triggering of the S rule as they're kind
of pricing in a recession they see
what's happening however here in the red
line we've been trading a lot different
a lot more stronger going into the
triggering of the S Rule and in fact I
think a lot of people would be surprised
to know that on average the stock
market's higher 12 months later after
the S ru's been triggered of course we
can get those nasty recessions like we
did in 2008 in the red dotted line here
and in 2001 after the tech bubble
however there's even instances where the
stock market's finished 2530 even 40%
higher a year later after the Sam rule
has been triggered and just keep in mind
the two big forces that drive the stock
market that's the economy GDP growth
which is still tracking around 3% for
the year and corporate earning that's
what stocks correlate with the most over
the long term just getting to the back
end of Q2 earning season we got better
than average 79% of companies beating
Wall Street expectations on how much
money they made with the absolute
year-over-year earnings grow grow
expected to come in at 11.2% that's
above expectations as well so just
imagine that you've got a business and
your latest quarterly earnings are up
11% year-over-year that's pretty Healthy
Growth double digits and the sectors
leading that growth is Technology Energy
communication Services real estate and
Healthcare with staples Industrials and
materials coming in the weakest and
apart from Emerging Markets we got EUR
stocks Japanese stocks and American
stocks the earning sediment that's
analyst upgrading versus downgrading is
actually trending higher and you can see
in the dark blue line that's been
trending up the last year and a half as
well what also gets me excited and why I
love investing in small caps is not only
do they have way more potential for
appreciation just in general being
smaller lower priced companies but the
fact is we're starting to Reach Records
in the number of consecutive days the
Russell 2000 has not surpassed its prior
high now getting towards 700 days
looking back in history we've only seen
two peaks above that 0809 in the early
2000s and after that time in the early
2000s small caps went on to outperform
large caps for another 10 years and so
small caps will eventually break out
again and I'm looking forward to when
that eventually happen contrasting all
that bullish research and data is
looking at this scatter plot chart of
the S&P annual performance versus the
vixx's yearly high so that's the highest
print we get in the vix for the year and
then what was their annual return for
that year in the S&P there's a 0%
negative territory and positive
territory up here you can see here in
the green 2024 we just printed a vix
high of 65 last Monday and like I said
on that day I'd put it about 80% %
chance probably higher that that was the
high for the year so far we're tracking
around 12% performance or so looking
back in history only two other years we
saw a high vix 2020 2008 one of them was
really down one of them was moderately
up have a looking back at all vix yearly
High prints above 45 we can see 1 2 3 4
5 6 they either finished flat or down
somewhat and then 1 2 3 4 5 6 that
finished moderately or very high did
really well so it's almost a 50/50 when
we get a really high vix print for the
year bit more tilted on the bullish side
just by the average Returns versus the
bare returns and this is a real outlier
2008 the odds of that happening anytime
soon are very low depending on who you
listen to of course and What markets
love is cooling inflation especially
when we've still got economic growth got
CPI printing a two handle for the first
time in this cycle and like I've been
saying for months and months soon as we
got that two handle on CPI I think that
could be the green light for JP to go
ahead and start trimming rates next
month cuz at 2.9% every year change
that's the lowest print we've had since
2021 before inflation really took off
and with that little bit of a scare in
the jobs Market a couple of weeks ago
that's another reason for them to maybe
dial risk back another thing that could
help inflation is something that's
probably contributed a lot more to it
than what people realize a huge influx
of immigrant into the United States over
the last couple of years in the light
blue there's authorized immigrants that
came illegally in the dark blue you can
see there since early 2021 when Biden
reversed a lot of Trump's policies at
the border unauthorized entry into the
United States skyrocketed that's been
pulling back a bit and especially if we
see a change in the White House that
could drop a lot as well and so
basically immigration spiked a lot more
than the supply side for many Industries
products and services it's a lot more
elastic than Supply is and so Supply
which is really lagging Investments
infrastructure Logistics has increased
to handle all that however like we see
in markets we can see in economies a lot
of symmetry big swings around an average
and wouldn't it surprise a lot of people
if in the next year or two we started
looking like deflation started getting
CPI in a one handle pretty sure no one's
expecting that have a like Goldman Sachs
expects that could really go low in the
next year or two and that's likely to
help inflation in the states as well
looking at another leading indicator
done by nordia and their aggression
model shows us core CPI continuing to
nose dive down towards the low twos over
the following 7 months and I'd put at 70
80% chance J pal is going to cut next
month of course we'll get a taste of
that in Jackson Hole when they all meet
up next Thursday Friday in which I would
expect him to hint towards that as well
getting a bit of volatility in fed fund
Futures as we quite often do now back to
63% chance fed will cut 25 basis points
however still pricing in a lot of cuts
over the next year still think we'll be
down in the low threes by next July and
we live in a synchronized world how
we're getting a few checkered reading on
CPI inflation the trend versus the prior
reading there's the states coming in
lower how we're still getting a number
of higher readings as well I wouldn't
say inflation's completely been put to
bed it's definitely trending in the
right direction but of course there's
always the risk of resurgence inflation
quite often looks like a S Wave up and
down up and down comes in waves spikes
Dives but for the here and now things
are looking pretty good okay as promised
at the start of this week I was going to
let you guys know the latest moves from
notable billionaire hedge fund managers
who've just filed their form 13 FS
they're required by the SEC any fund
that manages more than 100 million has
45 days at the end of each quarter to
file their form 13s with the SEC letting
them know what their trades have been
and what their positions are and so I'll
go over a few notable names I'll let you
know Stanley drer Miller at the end I'll
show you what moves he's made but first
we'll start off with the granddaddy of
investing Warren Buffett surprisingly
just started a new steak in Ulta beauty
and actually sold Snowflake and here's a
look at Mr Buffett's portfolio there's
that big trimmy did in apple chopped it
in half still owns 400 million shares
30% of his portfolio his current stock
portfolio is 280 billion he's always
operated burky Hathaway kind of like a
holding company and hedge fund he either
owns businesses completely outright or
he owns a share of them through publicly
traded security coming in number two
Bank of America 14% American Express 12%
Coca-Cola which he has a long-term
affinity for back when Buffett was a kid
he used to buy six packs of Coke cans
from Believe It or Not Charlie M's
father's store back in Omaha Nebraska
and reell them he bought his first stock
at 11 years old famously said he was
messing around for 10 years and since
then has been investing for almost 85
years sold shares and Coke for about 50
years and I'm pretty sure he'll never
ever sell them either coming to number
five Chevron oxy and some of his other
longtime fa
he still got in there he added big time
to sirius 262 and there's his new buy
alter and another small position in hio
but we don't know if that's done by his
two protes Ted and Todd or by Buffett
himself but overall as we know he was a
net seller in the quarter with almost as
much cash and short-term T bills and the
like that he does have in stock no doubt
he probably doesn't like the valuation
of a lot of stocks out there however he
could also be preparing for another
signature purchase maybe the signature
purchase of his career before he likely
retired in the next year two moving on
to the always colorful Bill Amman of
Persian Square Capital interesting to
note he started a new position in Nike
just a small one 2.2% of his portfolio
he also did a bit of trimming as well
top position still Hilton Chipotle
restaurant Brands and alphabet Charlie M
is pro toet and the only other money
manager that Charlie manga trusted with
his own money mang famously was an
extremist investor very concentrated
quite often only hold three four
positions most famously Burkshire
hathway Costco and a private partnership
with leelu himay Capital Management in
which he just reported one trade for the
quarter he bought ocidental petroleum
largest position still Bank of America
another prote of Charlie manga manich
PAB follows in the footsteps of Charlie
being a very concentrated High
conviction investor quite often focused
on deep value he added to his biggest
position Alpha metallurgical resources
Arch resources and Warrior met coal
interesting to note these are coal
mining companies pretty much been given
up on by the market they trade at very
deep discounts relative to their cash
flows he's obviously betting they'll
come back even if it is just a fair
value as Cole likely still has a few
more years left in it even more colorful
Michael Barry portrayed in the movie The
Big Short by Christian Bale made a few
moves in his portfolio for the second
quarter added to his largest position in
Alibaba bought Shift 4 Molina Healthcare
Hudson Pacific Properties a few other
small positions so along with ba and
jd.com you can see he's betting on
Chinese security another good hedge fund
manager with long-term track record
Daniel lob third Point larger position
still Amazon did reduce Microsoft meta
and alphabet but he bought apple and a
few other small positions here however
he runs a much more Diversified
portfolio as you can see David Einhorn
of green light Capital quite often see
in the financial media and all these
guys used to get so much more Spotlight
and attention in the financial media in
the mid- late 2000s when kind of hedge
funds peaked out around 2009 2010 a lot
of them are underperformed the S&P since
it's been very hard to keep up however
they still manag billions of dollars
David Einhorn largest position green
brick Partners 29% of his portfolio Head
and Shoulders above his other positions
he's also got some energy names also
interesting to note he reduced his
position in Gold still small part of his
portfolio and he bought pelaton which
has been beaten down for a long time now
and Capri and IAC just looking at his
larger position green brick Partners
Home Building Company coming out of
Texas it's actually a small cap 3
billion looks pretty good on my
fundamental indicators fair value as
well can't say the same for pelaton that
looks like it's been Beat to Death he's
obviously betting on a bit of a
turnaround situation here 1 billion
market cap anyone remember this back in
Co man how different it was back then
traded up to $170 a share wealthy
consumers stuck at home buying a
treadmill with an iPad attached to it
everyone thought it was the future how
often we see this in markets things
change $170 a share now at $280 another
great hedge fund manager with the
longterm track record of outperforming
David teer significantly trimming his
exposure to Mega cap Tech largest
position still alib babba like Michael
bar also owns pindur Duo I sharees China
large cap ETF Buu and jd.com he's
obviously betting on Chinese Securities
as well in which he increased his
position in fxi and kweb and jd.com and
the fundamentals are pretty good on
Chinese Securities especially looking at
valuations there's Alibaba jd.com my
indicators got it at 38% undervalued and
pendu Duo 45% David teer is bullish on
these stocks and finally one of the best
if not the best in hedge fund management
Stanley dra Miller in which he's quite
often known for doing a top down
strategy looking at the macro then
choosing his bets based on that instead
of bottom up analysis more like Buffett
just looks at companies he knows and
understands and can buy it a reasonable
valuation St driller decreased his
position at his largest holding coupang
increased in coherent NATA vistra
Seagate sold 64% of his shares in
Microsoft interesting new holding in
Philip Morris M America apartments and
also interesting to note he sold shares
in pal elto and 87% of his shares in
Nvidia it's now less than 1% of his
portfolio also interesting new holding
in palent and Adobe so there look at
Nvidia David teer Stanley draam Miller
significantly trimmed we are getting a
few mixed signals here in technicals
fundamentals are still trending up
valuation is not that bad 32% above fair
value Stanley Dr Miller has taken a
liking to Philip Morris kind of like
coal companies tobacco companies can
quite often trade at a discount as with
ESG investing a lot of big institutional
money is simply not allowed to touch
them and believe it or not alria group
another large tobacco company is
actually the all-time number one
performing stock ever in the stock
market and we can see that in this
article here from Investopedia list of
the best performing stocks of the past
Century recent study from Arizona State
University analyzed the price history of
more than 29,000 US stocks that traded
between 1925 and 2023 some of the best
performing stocks Abott Laboratories
Johnson and Johnson fisa General
Dynamics Boeing northrope Grumman Koke
Pepsi Hershey H the King was alria 265
million per return in less than 100
years no other asset comes close to that
even Dow Jones Industrial which is Head
and Shoulders above bonds gold
everything else to 24,000 and we've only
got data and trading View alria group
going back to 1968 however just looking
at the logarithmic chart here split
adjusted started at 11 C here we are at
$51 not including all the dividends and
if you reinvested all those dividends
that's how you create a compounding
machine however I'd say the future is a
bit more uncertain when it comes to
tobacco and nicotine products and so
You' need a bit of margin of safety to
account for that in my opinion however
just on principles I wouldn't invest in
tobacco stocks either okay to the title
of this video the ominous signal we just
got for the stock market and I hate to
Hate on a guy but he's making another
Market call again after he said he
wouldn't and he's had a pretty shocking
track record these last few years that's
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson who just
came out and said he doesn't see a major
stock market collapse despite the recent
sell-off and that just made me cringe
when I saw that and I'll show you why in
March last year he came out and said
sell any bounce on this government
intervention the next leg of the bare
Market has begun March 13 2023 and that
was right there where he pretty much
nailed the low when he said to sell any
bounce March 2013 S&P 500 was at 3900
then in May last year he said don't be
foed into thinking this year's stock
rally is the start of a new bull market
May 23 last year and there we are there
May 23 said it's not a new bull market
4100 on S&P then he comes out on July 26
and admits he was wrong about a Plunge
in US Stocks as the market was clearly
rallying up and there's July 26
where he admitted he was wrong and
started to turn bullish again Believe It
or Not Market made a high the next day
pulled back for another couple of months
until he made that low in late October
last year then at that period on October
31 he came out and warned investors not
to get their hopes up for a Santa Claus
rally and again he almost nailed the Low
by 2 Days by trying to warn investors to
stay out of the market of course we went
on for an epic Santa Claus rally into
2024 and we've continued to Rally up
since then he CED so much Flack for all
of this got demoted from Morgan Stanley
said he's done making calls on S&P 500
and now he's just coming out and said he
sees few signs of a bare Market doesn't
think they're going to plunge and as a
bull I wish he would just shut his mouth
he's really jinxing us here so hopefully
he's not wrong for the 10th time in 3
years as a broken clock is right twice a
day right hopefully that's one of those
times just moving on to the global macro
geopolitics and commodity didn't get a
huge move at a CPI today I think the
market was kind of already expecting it
B's hanging around the same levels I
think what we'll really be looking look
forward to is the jobs report first
Friday in September fed will get a look
at that before it meets on the 18th and
I'd say that will really cement their
view if that would have come in at 43 44
so they're very likely to cut maybe even
if we get a nice Improvement down to 42
they could still cut as well just
looking at Market implied probability of
a recession very low that we're
currently in a recession already like a
few Financial channels we'll try to have
you believe the Market's actually given
that about a 6% chance that we're
already in a recession however the
probability of recession starting in the
next year they've got it 41% that's
really skewed by the 12mth Ford implied
change in the FED funds rate as I just
showed you as pricing in a huge amount
of cuts pricing in a big recession over
the next year however you quite often
find fed fund Futures Ford pricing curve
can get quite a bit ahead of itself and
is quite often wrong looking at other
indications of the probability of a
recession MBS spreads high yield spreads
cyclical versus defensives 10e 2year and
not showing on here they're all giv a
lad to moderate or very low like high
bonds given a really low chance we're
going to see a recession and especially
the stock market doesn't look to be
pricing in a recession and like I said
don't place too much weight on that fed
fund Futures curve as it's almost always
wrong about what the FED will do in the
future quite sensitive and the fact is
it's very hard to predict what interest
rates will do in the near-term future
even though it seems like it's not don't
be fooled it is challenging and why a
lot of big investors Warren Buffett
included a shine away from long-term US
government bonds keeping pretty much all
of his liquidity in short short dated
tea bills it's cuz the exploding US
Government debt coming into the global
financial crisis 2008 was below 10
trillion and that 15 years is more than
tripled we're now sitting above 35
trillion and that's accelerated since
2020 as well the amount and pace of
current US federal government spending
is just simply unsustainable something
will have to change moving on to
Commodities got oil pulling back still
on edge with Iran and Israel do have
some soft signs of demand and demand
forecast going forward global economy
he's kind of in a flux got a bunch of
central banks cutting getting some mixed
data especially from China could really
go either way here and that could be
potentially affected in the coming days
with how Iran responds to Israel as
theyve vowed severe punishment for the
assassination of hamus political leader
and we've just got news that there's a
massive Cyber attack on the Central Bank
of Iran apparently ATMs around the
country are shut down computer systems
of the banks were paralyzed and this
level of attack is likely State done
probably by Israel maybe with the help
of the West maybe trying to stir the pot
and tip Iran into giving a response
maybe Israel wants to use this
opportunity to shut them down as they're
said to be on the cusp of developing a
nuclear weapon which poses a real risk
to Israel as Iran's expressed publicly
for years now they wish to wipe Israel
off the map however Israel is not going
anywhere there's only 16 million Jews in
the world Israel is their only home
state they're surrounded by 28 Arab
countries over half a billion Arabs and
even the Quran acknowledges Jews were in
Israel thousands of years ago that to
have come from some somewhere right so
they see Iran as an existential threat
and they have the capability to deal
with that like it looks like they're
already starting to do and we can see a
similar situation in Taiwan and the
years ahead we already got America
delivering Advanced artillery rocket
systems to Taiwan potentially looking to
deter a Chinese Invasion or respond to a
Chinese Invasion when that happens so
like I said elevated geopolitical
tensions is not going anywhere it's
luckily to remain for years ahead and
that should give a Tailwind to gold
which has been trading firm all year we
start it off just above $2,000 an ounce
and here we are we're already up 20% of
the Year outperforming S&P 500 and
that's pretty much a wrap for today guys
we got retail sales coming out tomorrow
few more earnings consumer sediment on
Friday we've just done a pretty good
bounce back from last Monday's low could
be in for a period of consolidation
especially going to Jackson Hole next
Thursday Market might be a little
worried going into that may see a little
bit of riskof and markets always trading
waves so we've had a pretty good upwave
here say a little down wve is just
around the corner and like I said I
really didn't like what heard from Mike
Wilson today that makes me want to buy
some portfolio insurance which luckily
looks to be getting Cheaper by the day
as well I'd be really surprised to see
the vix trade below 15 and if it did I'd
be inclined to take advantage of that
thanks very much for sticking with click
capital and I'll see you again tomorrow
night cheers
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