How Your Birth Month Impacts Your Success

Summary

The video script explores the 'Relative Age Effect', a phenomenon where children born earlier in the academic or sports year tend to outperform their younger peers due to physical and cognitive maturity. This early advantage, known as the Matthew Effect, often translates into long-term benefits in sports, education, and leadership positions. The script delves into studies from various sports and educational systems, revealing skewed birthdate distributions among athletes and students. It concludes with suggestions to mitigate the effect by focusing on abilities rather than age, allowing children to learn at their own pace, and educating coaches and leaders about its impact.

Takeaways

• 📊 The Relative Age Effect is a phenomenon where individuals born earlier in the year are overrepresented in sports and other competitive fields due to physical and cognitive advantages they have over younger peers at a given age.
• 🎂 This effect is observed in the Spanish Football League, where a significant number of players are born in the first six months of the year compared to the last six months.
• 👦🏻 The script uses a birthday party scenario to illustrate the age difference between two individuals born at the beginning and end of the year, highlighting the relative age difference's impact on their development and opportunities.
• 🏫 The Relative Age Effect is particularly pronounced in primary school, where the age difference can translate into significant developmental disparities, affecting sports and academic performance.
• 💪 Older children, due to their physical and cognitive maturity, are more likely to be selected for sports teams and advanced educational programs, which can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of success.
• 🔄 The Matthew Effect, which states that initial advantages can compound over time, is related to the Relative Age Effect, leading to a widening gap in success between those born early and late in the year.
• 🏀 Research in sports, such as a study in Sweden, shows a consistent skew in the birthdate distribution of athletes, with a higher ratio of those born in the early months of the year.
• 📚 The effect is also present in education, where older students in a class tend to perform better academically and are more likely to pursue higher education.
• 🏛️ Leadership positions, such as in the US Senate, House of Representatives, and corporate CEO roles, show underrepresentation of individuals born in the later months of the school year.
• 🔑 To mitigate the Relative Age Effect, the script suggests focusing on abilities rather than age in sports selection and allowing individual learning paces in education.
• 📈 The script emphasizes the importance of educating coaches and leaders about the consequences of the Relative Age Effect to create a more level playing field for all.

Q & A

What is the Relative Age Effect?

The Relative Age Effect is a phenomenon where individuals born earlier in a school or sports year tend to perform at a higher level than those born later in the year due to their physical and cognitive maturity at an earlier age.

Why does the Relative Age Effect occur in sports?

It occurs because children born earlier in the year are typically taller, stronger, and faster, giving them an advantage in sports selection and performance, which can lead to more opportunities and experience.

What is the Matthew Effect and how is it related to the Relative Age Effect?

The Matthew Effect, often described as 'the rich get richer, the poor get poorer,' refers to the idea that small advantages early in life can accumulate over time to create significant disparities. It is related to the Relative Age Effect as the early advantages in sports or education due to relative age can lead to further advantages in adulthood.

How does the Relative Age Effect impact the selection of professional athletes?

Coaches are more likely to select older children for sports teams due to their physical advantages, leading to more experience and better performance over time, which can result in a higher chance of becoming a professional athlete.

What does the study from Sweden reveal about the distribution of athletes' birthdates in various sports?

The study shows that the birthdate distributions are consistently skewed towards athletes born in the earlier months of the year for every individual sport investigated, indicating a significant overrepresentation of athletes born in the first part of the year.

What is the 'Missed Stars' concept mentioned in the Swedish study?

'Missed Stars' refers to the teenagers who had the potential to become athletes but never made it because of the month they were born in, due to the Relative Age Effect influencing their chances of selection and development in sports.

How does the Relative Age Effect manifest in education?

In education, the Relative Age Effect is seen in the performance and opportunities of students born earlier in the school year, who are often more cognitively developed and thus perform better academically, leading to advantages in gifted programs and higher education.

What is the impact of the Relative Age Effect on leadership positions in professional settings?

Research indicates that individuals born in the later months of the school calendar are underrepresented in leadership positions, such as in the US Senate, House of Representatives, Finnish politics, and corporate CEOs of S&P 500 companies, suggesting that the early advantages due to relative age can persist into professional success.

What solutions are suggested to mitigate the Relative Age Effect in sports and education?

The solutions include selecting children in sports based on skill rather than size or strength, allowing children to learn at their own pace in schools, and educating coaches and leaders about the consequences of the Relative Age Effect to make more informed decisions.

How does the script suggest we can support the channel that discusses these topics?

The script suggests liking the video, subscribing to the channel for more data-driven stories, and supporting the project on Patreon to help scale up the channel and improve content quality.

Outlines

00:00

🏆 The Impact of Relative Age Effect in Sports

The first paragraph discusses the phenomenon known as the Relative Age Effect (RAE) in the context of sports. It illustrates how a higher number of Spanish Football League players are born in the first half of the year compared to the second half. The RAE is explained through the example of two friends, Red and Blue, who are the same age but have different birthdays, highlighting the developmental advantages Red has over Blue at a younger age due to being born earlier in the year. The paragraph further explains how these early advantages can lead to increased chances of selection in sports, more experience, and ultimately a higher likelihood of becoming a professional athlete. The concept of the Matthew Effect is introduced, which describes how initial advantages can compound over time, leading to significant disparities in success rates among individuals born at different times of the year. The paragraph concludes with a reference to a study from Sweden that shows a significant skew in the birthdate distribution of athletes, suggesting a strong presence of the RAE in sports.

05:01

📚 The Relative Age Effect in Education and Career

The second paragraph expands on the Relative Age Effect, discussing its implications in education and career. It explains how the cut-off dates for school entry can result in classrooms with a mix of older and younger students, with the older students typically having a cognitive advantage. This advantage can lead to better academic performance, higher chances of entering gifted programs, and a greater likelihood of pursuing higher education. The paragraph cites research from the Netherlands that shows younger students are more likely to struggle academically, while older students excel. It also touches on the Matthew Effect in education, where early academic advantages can accumulate over time. The discussion then shifts to the impact of the RAE on career and leadership positions, with studies indicating underrepresentation of individuals born in later months of the school year in leadership roles. The paragraph concludes with suggestions on how to mitigate the RAE, emphasizing the importance of selecting children based on ability rather than age, allowing them to learn at their own pace, and educating coaches and leaders about the consequences of the RAE.

Keywords

💡Relative Age Effect

The Relative Age Effect (RAE) refers to the observed advantages that individuals born earlier in the selection period (e.g., a calendar year) have over those born later. In the video, this concept is illustrated with the example of two friends born on January 1st and December 31st, showing how the older child has advantages in physical and mental development, which can impact their performance in sports and education.

💡Matthew Effect

The Matthew Effect describes the phenomenon where 'the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.' It explains how initial small advantages can compound over time into significant benefits. The video discusses this in the context of how early advantages in sports or education can lead to greater success and opportunities in adulthood.

💡Tertiles

Tertiles are a method of dividing a set of data into three equal parts. In the video, athletes' birthdates are grouped into tertiles to show the distribution of births and the prevalence of athletes born in the early months of the year, illustrating the Relative Age Effect.

💡Self-fulfilling Prophecy

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true. The video explains how coaches selecting older, more physically mature children for sports teams can lead these children to gain more experience and improve, thereby justifying the initial selection and perpetuating the cycle.

💡Missed Stars

The term 'Missed Stars' refers to talented individuals who never reach their potential due to disadvantages like being born later in the selection period. The video highlights how the Relative Age Effect can cause such individuals to be overlooked in sports, education, and other fields.

💡Gifted Programs

Gifted programs are educational tracks for students who show exceptional abilities or intelligence. The video mentions that older children, due to their advanced cognitive development, are more likely to be placed in these programs, which can enhance their educational and career prospects.

💡Cut-off Date

The cut-off date is the date that determines which school year or sports age group a child belongs to. The video discusses how different countries have different cut-off dates, which affects the age distribution within a group and can lead to the Relative Age Effect.

💡Leadership Positions

Leadership positions refer to roles where individuals hold significant decision-making authority, such as CEOs or political leaders. The video discusses research showing that people born earlier in the school year are overrepresented in these positions, suggesting long-term advantages of the Relative Age Effect.

💡Public Health

Public health refers to the health and well-being of the general population. The video suggests that the Relative Age Effect can negatively impact public health by reducing the lifetime levels of physical activity in individuals who were relatively younger and thus less likely to participate in sports.

💡Underdog Hypothesis

The underdog hypothesis suggests that younger children in a cohort must develop superior skills to compete with older peers. The video mentions this hypothesis to explain why some younger children may still succeed despite the disadvantages posed by the Relative Age Effect.

Highlights

The Spanish Football League has a noticeable trend where more players are born in the first six months of the year compared to the last six.

This disparity is attributed to the Relative Age Effect, a phenomenon that influences early life advantages and can have long-term impacts.

The concept of Relative Age Effect is illustrated through a birthday party scenario, highlighting the age difference's impact on physical and cognitive development.

In primary school, the relative age difference between children born at the start and end of the year can affect their physical and mental development, giving an advantage to the older children.

The Matthew Effect, or 'The rich get richer,' is introduced as a principle where early advantages accumulate over time, leading to greater disparities in adulthood.

The transcript discusses the impact of the Relative Age Effect on success in education, sports, career, and provides insights on mitigation strategies.

In sports, children born earlier in the year tend to be selected more often due to their physical advantages, leading to a higher chance of becoming professional athletes.

A study from Sweden is highlighted, showing a consistent skew in birthdate distributions across various sports, indicating a significant advantage for athletes born earlier in the year.

The study's findings suggest that teenagers born in the first tertile are 74% more likely to become athletes, illustrating the profound impact of the Relative Age Effect.

The transcript mentions a reverse Relative Age Effect in E-sports, where younger children might be more likely to drop out of physical sports and focus on video games.

The Relative Age Effect is also prevalent in education, with older children in a class performing better academically and being more likely to pursue higher education.

Research from the Netherlands is cited, showing that younger students in the class are more likely to struggle academically and repeat grades.

The transcript explores the Relative Age Effect's impact on career and leadership positions, with studies indicating underrepresentation of those born in later months of the school calendar.

To mitigate the Relative Age Effect, the transcript suggests separating children based on abilities rather than age, both in sports and education.

The importance of educating coaches and leaders about the consequences of the Relative Age Effect is emphasized to create a more equitable environment.

The transcript concludes by encouraging viewers to support the channel for more data-driven storytelling and to raise awareness about the Relative Age Effect.

Transcripts

This is all the players currently in the Spanish Football League.

If you group them by month of birth, something interesting happens.

Do you see it?

I’ll give you a hint

There are significantly more players born in the first 6 months than in the last 6 months

of the year.

This is caused by a phenomenon called the Relative Age Effect.

I’ll explain what that means.

Let’s say it’s December 31st of 2022.

Two friends meet for a birthday party.

Red was born on january 1st 2004.

Blue, the birthday boy, was born on December 31st and just turned 18.

Right now they are both 18 and you wouldn't notice the differences between them.

Afterall, Red is only 6% older than Blue.

However, if we travel back in time it’s a different story.

Let’s go back to their first day of primary school.

It's now September 1st of 2010.

Even though the difference between their ages is still 11 months and 30 days, the relative age

difference increased.

Red is now 18% older than Blue.

At this age, the 11 additional months he had to grow make a difference and you can see it

He’s taller, stronger and mentally more developed, which will gives him an advantage

in sports and school.

This is known as Relative Age Effect: people born earlier in the school or sports year

tend to perform to a higher level than those born at the end of the year.

But if we travel back to 2022 these differences should disappear right?

Well, not really.

Research shows us is that even when we become adults, people who were older than their peers

during childhood still have an advantage in sports, education and even in positions of

leadership.

The small advantages at an early age can build up into bigger advantages in adulthood.

This is known as the Matthew Effect.

AKA: "The rich get richer, the poor get poorer".

What is a small advantage at the start can develop into a bigger advantage later on.

The point of this video is to talk about how the relative age effect can impact success

in education, sports, career and what we can do about it.

Let's start with Sports

In most sports, children are grouped based on their calendar year of birth.

On average, children born earlier in the year are taller, stronger and faster.

Therefone, an older child will have a higher chance of being selected by the coach to play.

Being selected to play, means the child gets more experience, becomes better and ends up

with higher chances of becoming a professional athlete later on.

Matthew Effect.

The older player is picked because he is better, and then ends up becoming better with time

because he was picked, apparently validating the early decision of the coach.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

There's plenty of research about the Relative Age Effect in Sports.

There's studies in football, baseball, ice hockey, tennis, you name it.

I decided to share the findings of this study in Sweden.

I chose it because it's quite recent and, honestly, because it's the first result on

Google.

The authors investigated multiple sports in Sweden.

Their conclusions: the birthdate distributions were consistently skewed for every individual

sport they investigated.

They looked at different sports and analyzed the birthdays of every athlete.

They grouped them in blocks of 4 months (also known as Tertiles) and they compared the actual

number of athletes per tertile against the numbers that you would expect from looking

at the births of the population in Sweden.

The y-axis shows the ratio between these two numbers.

In other words, if the ratio is higher than 1, that means there is an abnormally high

number of athletes born in those months.

They looked at 14 to 17 year old athletes in Athletics and they got these results.

Take a second to see what this means.

There's 27% more athletes born in the beginning of the year than what would be normal for

the Swedish population, and 28% fewer at the end of the year.

These are big gaps.

if the results are accurate this means that teenagers born in the first tertile are 74%

more likely to become athletes than those born in the last tertile

The authors frame the results in way that might give a better picture of what this means.

In theory, these gaps represent the "Missed Stars".

Teenagers that had the potential but never made it as athletes because of the month they

were born in.

Whereas this gap represents the athletes that are quote "Not Talented": teenagers that wouldn't

have made it as athletes if the rules were even

The gap is not as big for older age groups, but it's still there.

And it’s important to note that the fact that the differences are smaller for these

older age groups doesn't necessarily mean that the relative age effect disappears as

you grow older.

It could actually mean the opposite: it could mean that because these sports are more competitive

now then they what were a few years ago, the relative age effect didn't matter as much

when this generation of athletes was young.

They also found similar results in cross-country skiing and alpine skiing

The authors even mention that the relative age effect can have a negative impact on public

health because it can reduce the lifetime levels of physical activity

They even found a reverse relative age effect in E-sports for some age groups!

They suggest the hypothesis that relatively younger children are more likely to dropout

from physical sports and focus more on other hobbies, like playing video games.

One import note: In most investigated sports, the birthdate distribution was not correlated

to the performance of the adults.

In other words, being born early means you get a higher chance of being selected to play

when young.

But once you're older and you’re part of those selected, it doesn't really matter.

Some studies even mention the underdog hypothesis: Since younger children are less (physically)

mature, they must possess or develop superior skills to be competitive

The relative age effect is also present in education

Each country has their own criteria to determine to which school year students belong.

In some countries, like Portugal, where I'm from, the cut-off date is December 31st.

This means January kids are the oldest in class.

In the southern hemisphere, February and March are common cut-off months

whereas August and September are more common in the Northern Hemisphere.

No matter what cut-off date we choose, we're going to end up with a group of students with

older and younger children

Older children are cognitively more developed.

As a result, they score higher marks on average, they are more likely to get into gifted programs

and, by the time they end school, they can be more likely to attend higher education

in academic schools over vocational schools.

Once again: The Matthew Effect.

The skills learned by the older students early in school can build up and increase their

advantage when applying to university later on.

There is plenty of research pointing to a relative age effect on education.

For example, this study looked at the performance of Dutch teenagers in school for each month

of birth.

In the Netherlands, October kids are the oldest of the class.

The authors analyzed the percentage of students that had to repeat a grade and, as expected,

the younger students struggled the most.

They also checked the percentage of students that skipped a grade and, once again, the

older students performed the best.

So, we came to the conclusion that the relative age effect has an impact in Sports and Education.

We've also seen how small early advantages can build up to bigger advantages later on

Therefore, it’s not a surprise that this can also affect your career.

There’s research that points out to a relative age effect in leadership positions.

There are studies in the US Senate and House of Representatives, in Finish Politics, and

even in the corporate CEOs of S&P 500 Companies.

These studies all have similar conclusions: professionals who were born in late months

of the school calendar are underrepresented in positions of leadership.

So, what can we do to solve the relative age effect?

Well, unfortunately if you're watching this video, it's probably a bit too late to do

much for yourself.

however, what what we can is to try to reduce this effect on our younger generations

Research on this topic often mentions the same point: We should separate children based

on abilities, not on their age.

In sports: children should be selected based on skill, not on size or strength.

And In schools: children should be allowed to learn at their own pace

And finally, we should educate coaches and leaders on the consequences of the relative

age effect, which is also the point of this video.

If you like stories told with data, consider liking the video and subscribing to the channel.

If you want to help us with this project, you can support us on Patreon in the link

in the description.

We're getting more people to work on our videos and we're trying to scale up the channel so

we can keep improving with our content.

We'll see you for the next video!