Which Is Better ? Investing In Dollars v/s INRFind Answer Here
Summary
TLDRIn this episode of 'NRI Money Clinic', Dr. Chandra Khan addresses the dilemma faced by Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) on whether to invest their dollar earnings back home in INR or in the developed world. He explores historical trends, current economic factors like inflation, current account deficit, and FDI flows, to provide insights on currency exchange rates and investment decisions. Khan also discusses investment motives, including speculation, interest rate differences, and need-based factors, and outlines various investment routes available to NRIs in India.
Takeaways
- 😀 NRI Money Clinic aims to help non-resident Indians (NRIs) decide whether to invest in dollars or Indian rupees.
- 💵 The strength and international acceptance of the US dollar make it an attractive currency for investment.
- 🌍 The US economy's significant role in global market capitalization justifies the preference for holding dollars.
- 🏠 NRIs may invest in India due to personal ties, potential for higher returns, and higher interest rates on rupee deposits.
- 📉 Historically, the Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar, but this is not a constant daily occurrence.
- 🔄 Currency exchange rates are dynamic and can fluctuate, affecting the value of investments in different currencies.
- 📈 The Indian rupee has periods of appreciation against the dollar, contrary to the common perception of constant depreciation.
- 💼 Factors influencing rupee depreciation include inflation differential, current account deficit, and defense procurements.
- 💹 The flow of dollars into and out of India can impact the rupee's value, with recent trends showing increased FDI and remittances favoring the rupee.
- 🏦 Interest rate differentials between FCNR and INR deposits have narrowed, reducing the advantage of one over the other.
- 🏢 NRIs have various investment options in India, including FDs, bonds, mutual funds, PMS, and insurance plans, with some requiring large minimum investments.
Q & A
What is the main dilemma faced by Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) when managing their earnings in dollars?
-The main dilemma faced by NRIs is deciding whether to invest their earnings in dollars in the developed world or to invest the money back home in Indian Rupees (INR).
Why do people have an affinity for holding dollars?
-People have an affinity for holding dollars due to its strength as an international currency, its acceptance worldwide, and the fact that the US economy constitutes about one-third of the world's market capitalization.
What are the historical trends of the Indian Rupee's value against the dollar?
-Historically, the Indian Rupee has depreciated against the dollar over decades. For example, in 1979, 1 US dollar was equivalent to about 12-15 Indian Rupees, whereas today it is around 83 Indian Rupees.
Why might the Indian Rupee appreciate or depreciate against the dollar?
-The Indian Rupee can appreciate or depreciate against the dollar due to factors such as inflation differentials between the US and India, current account deficit, defense-related procurements, and the flow of dollars into or out of the country.
What are the three primary reasons for the Indian Rupee's depreciation against the dollar?
-The three primary reasons for the Indian Rupee's depreciation against the dollar are inflation differences between the US and India, current account deficit, and defense-related procurements.
How has the Indian government been addressing the issue of current account deficit?
-The Indian government has been focusing on renewable energy and energy efficiency to reduce dependence on oil imports, which are a significant factor in the current account deficit. They have also introduced sovereign gold funds to reduce gold imports and the spending of dollars.
What is the impact of FDI on the Indian Rupee's value?
-Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India is currently very high, which is favorable for the Indian Rupee as it represents a steady inflow of dollars into the country, potentially leading to the appreciation of the currency.
What are the three major reasons people invest in either rupees or dollars?
-People invest in either rupees or dollars for speculative reasons, the potential for higher returns through interest or growth in a particular country, and need-based reasons such as having a specific financial commitment in a particular currency.
How has the differential between FCNR interest rates and INR interest rates changed recently?
-The differential between FCNR interest rates and INR interest rates has become extremely narrow recently, with both rates being almost similar due to the inflation differential between the US and India narrowing down.
What are the different ways NRIs can invest in India without bringing their money into the country?
-NRIs can invest in India without bringing their money into the country through Foreign Portfolio Investment Route (FPI), which may come via Mauritius or Bermuda, or through Gift City in Gujarat. They can also invest in ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to India from their own country.
Outlines
📈 Understanding the Dilemma of NRIs: Investing in Dollars vs. INR
In this episode, Dr. Chandra Khan explores the perennial dilemma faced by NRIs: whether to invest their earnings in dollars within developed markets or in Indian national rupees (INR). The episode aims to provide clarity and guidance on making this crucial financial decision. The importance of understanding the strength of the dollar, the benefits of investing in India, and the fluctuating currency exchange rates are discussed.
💵 The Allure and Strength of the Dollar
NRIs often prefer holding onto dollars due to its strength and global acceptance. The US economy's robustness and the international trade dominance of the dollar justify this preference. However, the decision to invest in India is driven by personal ties, potential retirement plans, and higher interest rates on INR deposits. The fluctuating exchange rate, which can either depreciate or appreciate, plays a significant role in these investment decisions.
📉 Historical Perspective on Rupee Depreciation
Over the decades, the Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar, a trend influenced by higher inflation rates in India compared to the US. Dr. Khan explains that despite periods of rupee appreciation, the general trend has been downward. He emphasizes the importance of understanding this dynamic when making investment decisions, noting that factors like inflation differentials and current account deficits contribute to this trend.
📊 Inflation and Its Impact on Currency Value
Inflation rates between countries significantly affect currency values. Historically, India's higher inflation compared to the US has led to rupee depreciation. However, current inflation rates in India and the US are similar, potentially stabilizing the rupee. The discussion includes the implications of current account deficits and how government actions to reduce dependence on oil imports and boost renewable energy can influence the rupee's value.
🛡️ Reducing India's Dependence on Imports
India's efforts to reduce its current account deficit involve focusing on renewable energy and reducing gold and defense imports. Government initiatives to produce defense equipment domestically and promote sovereign gold bonds aim to decrease the outflow of dollars, which can stabilize or appreciate the rupee. Dr. Khan highlights the importance of these measures in strengthening India's economy and currency.
🌍 The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in the flow of dollars into India. The increasing FDI in India, which is now higher than in many other countries, positively impacts the rupee. Dr. Khan explains that FDI is a 'sticky' investment, meaning it stays in the country long-term, contributing to economic growth and currency stability. He also mentions the significant remittances from NRIs, further strengthening the rupee.
📉 Speculative Investments and Interest Rate Differences
Investors consider speculative needs, interest rate differences, and specific financial goals when deciding whether to invest in dollars or INR. While the Indian stock market has historically offered better returns than the US market, short-term movements can be unpredictable. The narrowing interest rate differential between FCNR (foreign currency non-resident) deposits and INR FDs makes it essential to consider potential rupee depreciation when making investment decisions.
💰 Balancing Currency Exposure Based on Needs
NRIs often maintain currency exposure based on personal financial needs, such as repaying loans in dollars or saving for children's education abroad. Tax benefits in countries like the US, Australia, and Singapore also influence investment decisions. Dr. Khan advises on the importance of aligning investments with financial goals and the benefits of seeking professional guidance to create a balanced investment portfolio.
🇮🇳 How to Invest in India: Options for NRIs
NRIs have multiple options to invest in India, including direct investments in FDs, bonds, mutual funds, PMS, and unit-linked insurance plans. For those who prefer not to bring money into India, options like the FPI route and investments via GIFT City in Gujarat are available, albeit with higher investment thresholds. Dr. Khan explains these options and encourages viewers to seek professional advice to optimize their investment strategies.
📢 Final Thoughts and Encouragement to Seek Professional Advice
Dr. Khan wraps up the episode by reiterating the importance of understanding the factors influencing investment decisions between dollars and INR. He encourages viewers to seek professional financial advice to build a robust investment portfolio tailored to their needs. The episode ends with a call to action for viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video to help others gain clarity on this topic.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡NRI
💡Currency Exchange Rate
💡Depreciation
💡Inflation
💡Current Account Deficit
💡FDI
💡Interest Rate Differential
💡Speculative Need
💡Portfolio
💡Tax Benefit
💡FPI Route
Highlights
The dilemma of NRI investors on whether to invest in dollars or Indian rupees is a perennial problem.
Dollars are preferred for their strength and international acceptance, with the US economy contributing to one-third of the world's market capitalization.
Investing in India is driven by the potential for higher returns and the familiarity of the home market.
Currency exchange rates are dynamic, with the Indian rupee historically depreciating against the dollar over decades.
The Indian rupee's depreciation is not consistent, with periods of stability and appreciation observed.
Three primary reasons for the rupee's depreciation against the dollar include inflation differential, current account deficit, and defense-related procurements.
Inflation in India and the US is currently similar, which may contribute to the rupee's stability against the dollar.
India's current account deficit is narrowing, which could positively impact the rupee's value.
Increased FDI and NRI remittances are favorable for the rupee, indicating potential for appreciation.
Investment motives include speculation, interest rate differences, and need-based considerations.
The differential between FCNR and INR interest rates has narrowed, affecting investment decisions.
Need-based investments are crucial for managing liabilities and future commitments in specific currencies.
Tax benefits from investing in certain accounts like 401(k)s or super funds can influence currency investment choices.
Investing in India can be done directly through various financial instruments or indirectly through ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to India.
FPI and GIFT City routes offer investment opportunities in India, though they have higher investment thresholds.
The video aims to provide clarity on currency investment decisions for NRI individuals.
Transcripts
dear viewers welcome to yet another
episode of your life your money for nris
who earn in dollars there's always a
dilemma which is going on in the mind
what shall I do with these dollars
should I invest in the developed world
in the form of dollars or should I
invest this money back home in the INR
this dilemma is a perennial problem
which is there in the minds of nris in
this episode I'm going to find an answer
for this problem and help you to decide
should you be investing in dollars or
should you be investing in Indian
national rupees this is NRI money clinic
for you and I Dr Chandra Khan but your
financial guide for a happy
[Music]
living NRI money Clinic new hype just
the right
advice nris earned in dollars are the
currencies of the developed World their
love affair for holding on to the
dollars is eternal obviously they are
making this Deion because of the
strength of the dollar because of its
position dollar is an international
currency the B trade happens around that
us is a very strong economy literally
onethird of the world's market
capitalization comes from the US market
so they are Justified to hold on to the
dollars dollars are acceptable in any
part of the world you have few dollars
you can travel to any part of the world
it can be freely exchange you don't need
anyone's permission these are the
reasons why people have an affinity for
dollars why people invest in India they
invest in India because you are an
Indian you might come back to India and
retire here you are also knowing very
sure that the rupe deposits give you a
higher rate of interest the growth story
of India gives you a much better return
in India this is the reason why you
invest in Indian rupees but the problem
is the currency exchange rate currency
exchange rate between two currencies is
not static it's always Dynamic one
currency moves up another comes down it
continuously happens it's just like a
stock market movement currency is going
up currency is coming down historically
if you look at it the Indian rupee has
constantly depreciated over decades
against the dollar when I was studying
I'm talking about 1979 period the rupe
to Dollar was somewhere at about 12
rupees or 15 rupees and where is it
today it's at about 83 rupees what was
10 12 rupees during my college days has
come down to 83 rupees right now so the
argument people make is if I hold on to
the dollar I will retain the value of
the money but if I keep money in the
Indian rupees the value against the
dollar comes down the answer is right
but it does not tell you the full story
the full story is that the rupe
depreciation against the dollar does not
happen on a daily basis at times the
markets remain static it will not move
at all at times the markets will come
down crashing down when I say Market it
is a currency Market the rupe May crash
down and there are periods where the
rupe has appreciated many people do not
know the fact that rupe can also
appreciate against the dollar we have
seen from 45 to 68 rupee crashing down
that's a pain Point everybody remembers
that we have also seen rupee crashing
from 75 to 82 that's a pain Point
everybody remembers but what people do
not know is rupee has also appreciated
at one point of time between I would say
2003 to 2008 where it appreciated all
the way from 45 rupes per dollar to a
level of about 37 or 38 you can pick up
such points all along that journey of 30
40 years you can find periods where rupe
has remained static rupe has appreciated
take the recent example 2018 to
literally about 2021 or so the rupee has
held against the dollar at about 75
that's about 3 to 4 years of neither
appreciation nor depreciation and rupe
held against the dollar very firm later
on because of the the reasons of Market
movements rupe has slided to about 82 83
and it is holding on there you can't
keep the two currencies at static Point
these are not the pegged currencies like
in case of Middle East currencies which
are pegged against the dollar so they
have a constant exchange rate so the
currencies will move up and down so this
fear of rupee depreciating creates Panic
creates doubts in the minds of nris what
shall I do if I had waited for some more
time probably I would have got more
rupees for every dollar that I had let's
try to find an answer why rupe
depreciates against the dollar I told
you about last close to about 4550 years
history and it has been a constant
downslide over longer periods of time
there are three primary reasons why rupe
depreciates against the dollar number
one is inflation between US versus India
the country which has higher inflation
the rupe or the currency depreciates
against the dollar let's say us had
inflation of 2% and India had an
inflation of 6 to 8% there is a
differential of 4 to 6% this makes the
cost of goods and services become
expensive to adjust for that the rupee
gets depreciated so the simple thing to
remember is the country which has higher
inflation the currency of that country
depreciates against the currency of
another country here the case is the US
which has lesser inflation what is
currently happening historically Indian
inflation was higher US inflation was
lower but today if you see the Indian
inflation and the US inflation is almost
similar and many of times the Indian
inflation is lower than the US inflation
so this point makes your rupe to remain
robust and can hold against the dollar
because there is no differential which
exists going forward for any reason if
inflation were to rise in India and the
inflation in US comes down we are back
to square one then there is a good
chance that the rupe will depreciate
further but the evidence what we see on
the ground today Indian inflation will
remain lower RBI says my target for
inflation today is at about 4% the US
has an inflation of 4 5% it looks very
sticky it will remain like that for a
few more years looks like maybe slowly
it will come down but nevertheless the
differential of inflation between us and
India is not significant today and
because of this the rupe is unlikely to
fall down against the dollar the second
reason is because of current account
deficit a current account deficit
primarily refers to the trade account
how much of dollars I need to buy the my
import requirement I import certain
things in India I have to spend my
dollars so I need dollars then how much
of dollars I earn I export things to the
rest of the world and our NRI Community
also sends money into India there could
be other borrowings and other things
which will happen so it's a balance
between the dollars we spent and the
dollars we earned historically India had
a negative current account deficit that
means we were spending more dollars and
we are earning less dollar now here also
we see the equation is turning favorable
to India right now it is still a current
account deficit country if the
statistics are to be believed it is
getting bridged it is getting narrowed
down and the governmental action is also
focused on that why does India spend so
much dollar primarily because of its oil
Imports India does not have the required
amount of energy that it needs for the
country so it has to import oil that is
the biggest guzzler of dollars in India
government is focusing on renewable
energy Energy Efficiency and a lot of
activities so that the dependence on
external source of energy over a period
of time slowly comes down the demand for
dollars can also come down because of
that likewise India has also floated the
sovereign gold funds to satiate the
demand of gold for its citizens Indians
have a fancy for gold they spend a lot
of money on gold and because of import
of gold we lose a lot of dollars if
people instead invest in s in Gold bonds
probably the gold import dependence
comes down and the spending of dollar
can also come down the third reason is
because of the defense related
procurements India needs arms and
ammunition and its industry was not
capable enough to produce it at home and
because of which you will heavily depend
on developed world procure your
aircrafts your spares and the latest
arms and ammunition for the security of
the country this government in the last
10 years has worked a lot under this try
to do an atbara on defense equipment
size they have done deals they are
producing it in India technology
transfer they're trying to export a lot
of these things to rest of the world so
what was a deficit for our country is
slowly steadily is turning out to be a
positive for the country yet another
reason for rupe to appreciate or
depreciate against dollar is flow of
dollars into the country or out of the
country for reasons other than the trade
people invest money in India so that is
why the dollars come in people often
sell out of the Indian market that's how
they take out their money so there is a
constant movement of money coming in or
money going out if there is more money
which is coming into the country then
the rupee will appreciate if there is
more money going out of the country then
the will depreciate now if we observe
the data points here now we can
evidently say there is more and more
people are pouring money into India the
FDI in India is highest today than any
other country in the world so we are
receiving a phenomenal amount of FDI
investment FDI refers to foreign direct
investment there is a specific way to
look at it and FDA investment is a
sticky investment which will remain in
India you bring money you invest
somewhere you establish factories you
create manufacturing units or this money
is not something that is not a smart
money where you put money today and
after a few months you take out the
money that's not a smart money here a
genuine investor comes into India pars
money and that is really growing look at
the remittances from nris across the
Globe last year we had more than100
billion worth of NRA remittances which
are coming into India and this figure is
only growing from a flow of dollars in
in and out of the country it is evident
and it's very clear to say that it is
favorable to Rupee so if you look at any
parameter today what was creating a
panic for The Indian rupe in the past is
no more evident at this point of time
and if the same Trend continues I will
not even rule out Indian rupe appreciate
against the dollar however the inflation
differential as thing stands today still
exist between the developed World versus
India and that could be one factor which
might make rupee slide slowly but
steadily that cannot be ruled out so the
worst case scenario as I can see is
rupees sliding down by about 2 to 3% on
an average per year is something which
we can factor in now let us look at why
people invest in INR or dollar what is
the motive behind that there are three
major reasons that people invest in
either rupees or in dollars number one
is the speculative need number two is
probability of making more money by the
way of Interest or by way of growth in
that particular country the third could
be the need based I have a particular
need because of this I park money in
dollars or I park money in the Indian
rupees and let's look at these three
things a little bit more in detail first
let us look at the speculative need the
speculative need is or the speculative
reasons is I expect Indian rupe to slide
further that is why I will not invest in
India so you are speculating thinking
that the rupee will depreciate or the
reverse is also true so if you expect
the dollar to appreciate or dollar to
depreciate INR to appreciate or
depreciate you take a call based on what
you perceive or what you are advised
with So based on the speculation you
calculate where do I make more money
that is how you speculate the other
speculation that you can make is where
will the growth be more and where I can
make more money out of for example you
have an option to invest in the US Stock
Market you have an option to invest in
the Indian stock market where will I
make more money both are the stock
markets both are vibrant markets where
will I make money if history is to be
believed it is people who invested in
the Indian stock market in the last 30
35 years have walked out with more money
than the people who have invested in the
US Stock Market the growth of the US
Stock Market is just not very organic it
has happened because of a lot of
printing of money lot of liquidity which
has been infused into the market very
artificial movement of money that is why
the US markets went up with all that
liquidity infusion the US markets just
made about CAG of 7% in dollar terms but
if you calculate in India you have got a
C of more than 7% in dollar terms during
the same period of time so the higher
growth in India makes you reap much
better benefits but this is in the long
term in the short term anything is is
possible it could be the US market
outperforming or the Indian market
outperforming the US market both are a
possibility in the long term because of
a higher growth in India you expect
Indian markets to do better than the US
market in the short term it is just
unpredictable the second reason why
people invest in India is because of the
interest rate difference you have an
option to bring dollars and hold it as
an fcnr or you can bring dollars convert
it into rupees and convert into an FD in
INR the FD interest rates in INR used to
be way higher than the fcnr rates fcnr
used to give you 1% 2% whereas the FD
rates in India used to be 8% 9% you can
say any figure if you look at a
particular time frame that could be a
possibility but currently the
differential between the fcnr interest
rate and the INR interest rate is
extremely narrow and just a few months
before it was almost similar to that
that is because of the inflation
differential between the two countries
getting narrowed down you don't see a
much big difference for any reason let's
say that Indian rupe has a higher FD
interest rate and the fcnr has a lower
FD interest rate how should you take a
call very simple let's say that fcnr
gives you 4% and the rupe FD gives you
7% now what happens after 1 year so you
made 4% in the fcnr because that offered
you 4% interest rate you made 7% in the
Indian FD rates because the INR gave you
7% 1 year from now if rupees slides by
3% against the dollar so if you convert
your dollars into the Indian rupees you
will get 4% on the dollar the interest
earn you will get 3% from the conversion
of Dollar to Rupee because rupe has
slided so the differential between the
interest rate between these two
countries is not too much something that
you have to depend upon if you have
lesser fcnr FD interest rate but
whenever you convert it into the future
you will get more rupees so even though
it gives an impression that I make more
rupees but obviously that may not be the
truth there could be shortterm movement
there could be slight aberations which
might happen depending on when you
convert things but overall whether you
keep it in an fcnr or whether you keep
it in an irr FD rate your net outcome
will remain the same the third is very
important it is the need based I have a
need that is why I maintain my currency
exposure let's say that there are people
who are living in Gulf there are people
who are in us and I have got a home loan
I've got some personal loan I've got a
vehicle loan I have to pay back this
money in emis in dollar terms or a
currency which is pegged against the
dollar so I'll not take a risk of moving
this money into India I'll hold this in
the form of dollars because I have a
commitment against that likewise people
who have an intention to send the
children to developed countries for
Education they would need dollars so
they'll not take a risk they will hold
it as dollars itself and there are
people who have their children living
outside these are nris who could be
working in Gulf or some other country
and for the retirement they come back to
India but the children are outside they
are concerned about the Legacy transfer
they are worried will India permit them
to move this money outside of India from
a legacy perspective also they might be
holding these Investments outside of
India in the form of dollars the yet
another reason which is a very very
powerful reason for you to invest in
dollars is the tax benefit that you get
let's say if you are living in us if you
have invested in 401 Cas or Ro account
or if you are living in Australia your
super funds you are living in Singapore
you have your cpf funds so you park
these money in these accounts the
governments have given you certain tax
benefits you make best use of that to
save on the taxes the taxes that you
saved is a gain that you have made so if
it gives you the tax benefit it gives
you that extra Advantage you park your
money in those currencies where your
state has given that benefit so now that
I have given you all the reasons
historical perspectives what might
happen in the future the needs and
everything now let us look at if you
decide to invest in India how can you
invest in India by the way we are in the
business of helping people set up their
portfolios build their retirement Corpus
and investment accounts to reach their
life goals if you are somebody who's
looking for an help in India to set up
your portfolios you can make best use of
our services we have team of experts on
the ground who are ever ready to analyze
your life analyze your financial aspects
and help you how much money you have to
keep it in dollars how much money you
have to keep it in India where to invest
how to build portfolios a professional
work can be done by our team of experts
if you have an intention you can reach
out to us through a WhatsApp message on
the number that is given in the
description box below to facilitate we
have also provided a link over there
just click on the link it takes you to
the WhatsApp send us that exploratory
message and our team of experts are ever
ready to help you why delay send that
message now now that you decide to
invest in India how can you invest in
India number one you can directly invest
into India you can invest in the fds you
can buy the bonds which are available
for the nris you can invest in mutual
fund you can invest in PMS you can
invest under unit linked insurance plan
all the things which are available for
nris to invest in the stock markets or
the debt markets you can make best use
of but if you do not want to bring your
money into India but still want to
invest in India one of the option that
you can explore is fbii foreign
portfolio investment route normally it
comes via morous Route or via Bermuda
route probably in a few weeks from now
I'll do a detailed video on how an RIS
can invest in India using the fpi route
yet another way which is taking off
right now is via gift City in Gujarat
that is one another medium where in
which you can invest in Indian market
but one problem with gift City as well
as the FBI routes you have a very large
threshold I am given to understand that
the gift City accepts investment only in
exess of $150,000 us and fbii Route
takes about 100,000 or more size
Investments when you have to invest in
India so unless you have so much of a
money you can't use these FBI route or
the gift City route one another way you
can invest in India without bringing
your money into India is you can choose
the ETFs and the mutual funds which are
dedicated to India and from your own
country you can choose these ETFs as the
mutual fund and you can make best use of
the growth prospects which are there in
India dear viewers hope the video that I
have done today helped you to clarify or
get a Clarity around should you invest
in dollars should you invest in rupees
how much to invest in dollar how much to
invest in rupees if it did give you a
Clarity do not forget to give me a
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Friday with yet another thought on your
life your money till then stay safe J
hin press the Bell icon for more details
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