The Truth of the Matter: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Summary
TLDRDans ce podcast de CSIS, Andrew Schwartz discute avec Mark Cancian, conseiller principal au programme de sécurité internationale, d'un rapport détaillé sur une simulation d'invasion chinoise de Taïwan. Le rapport examine les pertes potentielles pour les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine dans un conflit militaire hypothétique, soulignant l'impact massif sur les infrastructures et les pertes humaines des trois côtés. Il recommande des mesures pour renforcer la dissuasion américaine, notamment en augmentant les stocks de munitions et en renforçant les bases stratégiques. L'épisode met en lumière les implications mondiales et les conséquences économiques d'une telle guerre.
Takeaways
- 🎮 Le rapport examine une invasion chinoise de Taïwan à travers une série de 24 simulations de guerre, analysant les résultats possibles en cas de conflit.
- 💥 Les États-Unis, Taïwan et le Japon peuvent garantir l'autonomie de Taïwan, mais à un coût très élevé avec de lourdes pertes humaines et matérielles pour toutes les parties.
- 🚢 Les États-Unis perdraient plusieurs navires de combat, dont des porte-avions, ainsi que des centaines d'avions, en raison de la précision et de la quantité des missiles chinois.
- 🏝️ Taïwan subirait des dommages économiques dévastateurs, tandis que la Chine perdrait également des centaines de navires et d'avions, rendant l'invasion insoutenable.
- 🗣️ Le jeu de guerre est réalisé en dehors des environnements classifiés, permettant ainsi une discussion publique sur ce scénario hypothétique et sur la préparation militaire nécessaire.
- 💣 Les missiles chinois représentent une menace majeure, détruisant des avions américains au sol. Les abris renforcés et des stocks plus importants de munitions sont des priorités pour améliorer la dissuasion.
- 🛡️ L'importance de la coopération avec le Japon est cruciale pour les États-Unis, car les bases américaines au Japon jouent un rôle clé dans toute confrontation potentielle avec la Chine.
- 🎯 Le rapport recommande que Taïwan améliore ses défenses terrestres et utilise des systèmes antinavires et antiaériens moins vulnérables.
- 🛠️ Les stocks actuels de missiles anti-navires américains (450 prévus d'ici 2026) ne seraient pas suffisants en cas de conflit prolongé avec la Chine.
- 🌍 Un tel conflit aurait des répercussions mondiales, notamment en perturbant l'industrie des semi-conducteurs et en créant des tensions économiques internationales.
Q & A
Quelle est la raison principale pour laquelle le rapport sur l'invasion de Taïwan par la Chine a attiré autant d'attention?
-Le rapport a suscité beaucoup d'intérêt car il s'agit de l'une des rares analyses de ce type disponibles au public, contrairement aux jeux de guerre classifiés du Département de la Défense américain.
Quelle est la probabilité d'une invasion chinoise de Taïwan, selon le rapport?
-Le rapport n'affirme pas que cette invasion est la plus probable, mais qu'elle est possible en raison de la rhétorique chinoise et de leur posture de plus en plus agressive envers Taïwan.
Quels sont les résultats globaux du jeu de guerre concernant les pertes pour les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine?
-Les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine subissent tous des pertes énormes. Les États-Unis perdent des dizaines de navires, des centaines d'avions et des milliers de personnels. Taïwan est économiquement dévasté, et la Chine perd également des centaines de navires, des avions et des milliers de soldats.
Comment fonctionne le jeu de guerre selon le rapport?
-Le jeu de guerre est physique, avec deux cartes: l'une de la zone Pacifique occidental pour le conflit aérien et naval, et une autre de Taïwan pour le combat au sol. Il utilise 2500 jetons représentant les forces aériennes, navales et terrestres des deux côtés.
Pourquoi est-il important de mener ce jeu de guerre dans un cadre non classifié?
-Cela permet une discussion publique et une participation plus large de la communauté de la sécurité nationale, tout en rendant transparentes les hypothèses et les conclusions utilisées pour cette analyse importante.
Quelles sont les principales pertes projetées pour les États-Unis dans cette simulation?
-Les États-Unis perdraient 10 à 20 navires de surface, dont deux porte-avions, ainsi que 200 à 400 avions, principalement détruits au sol par des missiles chinois.
Quels sont les impacts sur la Chine et Taïwan dans ce jeu de guerre?
-La Chine perdrait des centaines de navires, des avions et des milliers de soldats, tandis que Taïwan verrait son économie et son infrastructure sévèrement touchées, avec de lourdes pertes dans sa marine et son armée de l'air.
Quels sont les effets globaux de ce conflit pour le monde entier?
-Le conflit perturberait l'industrie des semi-conducteurs basée à Taïwan et le commerce mondial, ce qui aurait un impact économique mondial. De plus, cela pourrait provoquer un repli isolationniste aux États-Unis, similaire à celui qui a suivi la Première Guerre mondiale.
Quelles recommandations le rapport propose-t-il pour améliorer la dissuasion des États-Unis?
-Le rapport recommande de renforcer les abris anti-missiles sur des bases comme Guam et au Japon, d'accélérer le flux d'équipement militaire vers Taïwan avant le début d'un conflit, et d'augmenter les stocks de munitions à longue portée, notamment pour les missiles anti-navires.
Pourquoi les sous-marins américains sont-ils essentiels dans cette simulation?
-Les sous-marins américains sont extrêmement efficaces pour détruire la flotte chinoise, en particulier les forces amphibies dans le détroit de Taïwan, ce qui en fait un atout crucial pour contrer une invasion chinoise.
Outlines
🎙️ Introduction au podcast et au rapport sur Taiwan
Andrew Schwartz présente le podcast 'The Truth of the Matter' de CSIS. Il discute d'un rapport important sur une possible invasion chinoise de Taïwan, réalisé par Mark Cancian, conseiller principal au programme de sécurité internationale. Mark résume l'étude, expliquant que malgré la classification des jeux de guerre par le DoD, ce rapport est accessible au public et explore une invasion potentielle de Taïwan. Bien que ce scénario ne soit pas jugé probable, il est considéré comme possible, justifiant une analyse approfondie des conséquences pour les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine.
⚔️ Pertes projetées pour les États-Unis dans le jeu de guerre
Mark décrit les pertes considérables subies par les États-Unis dans le cadre de cette guerre simulée : 10 à 20 navires de surface détruits, y compris deux porte-avions. Les missiles chinois, nombreux et précis, constituent une menace majeure pour les forces américaines avancées dans la zone de conflit. Les avions américains sont également massivement détruits au sol par des attaques de missiles chinois, rendant la guerre aérienne particulièrement difficile.
📉 Conséquences pour Taïwan, la Chine et le Japon
Mark explique que Taïwan subit des destructions massives, mais reste autonome. La Chine perd des centaines de navires et d'avions, ce qui pourrait menacer la stabilité de son régime. Le Japon est fréquemment impliqué en raison de sa proximité avec Taïwan et de la présence de bases américaines. Le conflit aura des répercussions mondiales, en perturbant notamment l'industrie des semi-conducteurs basée à Taïwan et en affectant les échanges économiques mondiaux.
🌍 Impacts géopolitiques et économiques mondiaux
Mark aborde les implications mondiales du conflit, notamment l'interruption de l'industrie des semi-conducteurs taïwanaise, essentielle pour l'économie mondiale. Il met également en garde contre un possible retrait des États-Unis de la scène internationale, rappelant l'isolationnisme qui a suivi la Première Guerre mondiale. Un tel retrait pourrait laisser la place à d'autres puissances comme la Russie ou l'Iran pour étendre leur influence.
🔋 Renforcer la dissuasion des États-Unis face à la menace chinoise
Mark insiste sur la nécessité pour les États-Unis de renforcer leur dissuasion, notamment en construisant des abris renforcés pour les avions à Guam et au Japon afin de protéger les appareils contre les attaques de missiles chinois. Il recommande également d'augmenter les stocks de missiles anti-navires à longue portée, car ces armes se sont révélées efficaces mais insuffisantes dans les simulations. Il souligne enfin l'importance des sous-marins américains, qui ont joué un rôle crucial dans le sabotage des forces amphibies chinoises.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Wargame
💡Invasion de Taïwan
💡Missiles chinois
💡États-Unis
💡Coalition
💡Abri renforcé
💡LORASM
💡Sous-marins
💡Inventaire de munitions
💡Chips informatiques
Highlights
The report 'Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan' has garnered significant attention because it's one of the few analyses in the public domain, while most Department of Defense (DoD) wargaming remains classified.
The project involved running 24 iterations of a war game over 15 months, analyzing combat scenarios to provide a detailed and consistent analytic foundation.
The United States, Taiwan, and Japan can ensure Taiwan's autonomy, but at a heavy price—dozens of U.S. ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of personnel are lost.
China would also suffer significant losses, including hundreds of ships, aircraft, and personnel, making the invasion devastating for all parties involved.
The wargame doesn't argue that an invasion is likely, but that it is possible given China’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan.
The U.S. Air Force and Navy could experience a cultural shock, as they've operated in protected environments since World War II but would face heavy casualties in a peer-to-peer conflict.
The Chinese Missile Force poses a significant threat to U.S. aircraft carriers, with two being sunk in most of the iterations, a catastrophic loss given the limited number of carriers.
Most U.S. aircraft losses (200-400 aircraft) would occur on the ground, due to the vulnerability of U.S. airbases within Chinese missile range.
The report stresses that reinforcements and logistics for Taiwan would be nearly impossible to deliver once the war begins due to the Chinese military blockade.
The global economy, particularly the computer chip industry in Taiwan, would be heavily disrupted by a conflict, affecting markets worldwide.
U.S. casualties in the first three weeks of conflict would be about half of what the U.S. suffered in 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
The report emphasizes the need to stockpile long-range anti-ship missiles, as current inventories would only last three days in a full-scale conflict.
Submarines play a crucial role in U.S. strategy, successfully wreaking havoc on the Chinese amphibious fleet in the wargame scenarios.
The wargame highlights four conditions for success: Taiwanese resistance, U.S. military bases in Japan, improved Taiwanese ground forces, and a robust U.S. air force using long-range anti-ship missiles.
There is a need for public and congressional debates on the findings, especially regarding munitions stockpiles and infrastructure upgrades in the Pacific region, such as hardened shelters for aircraft.
Transcripts
[Music]
I'm Andrew Schwartz and you're listening
to the truth of the matter a podcast by
csis where we break down the top policy
issues of the day and talk with the
people that can help us best understand
what's really going on
to get to the truth of the matter about
the hottest report coming out of a think
tank in town this week we have with us
Mark cancerian of our International
Security program who's a senior advisor
at csis Mark your report wargaming a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan has really
taken Washington in certain parts of the
world by storm can you give us an
overview of the report that you released
this week
sure let me say first that I think the
report has received a lot of attention
because it's one of the few such
analyzes that's available in the public
you know the dod has done a lot of
classified War gaming but that's all
behind closed doors very little detail
gets out this is entirely in the public
domain
we also ran it 24 times to provide a
strong analytic foundation and we spent
a lot of time looking at history and
test results to come up with tables and
computer programs for combat results so
that the adjudication would be the same
across the board
we've been running this project for 15
months developed this war game and then
ran 24 iterations of the war game the
board game examines a Chinese invasion
of Taiwan we don't argue that this is
the most probable course of action and
we certainly don't argue that it is
likely but we do argue that it is
possible given Chinese rhetoric and
their increasingly aggressive stance
towards Taiwan and also it's the most
dangerous uh Chinese scores of action so
we argue that it's important to do
analysis of this course of action
what we found was that the United States
Taiwan and Japan can ensure that Taiwan
continues as an autonomous and
Democratic entity however that comes at
a very high price the United States in
its Coalition lose dozens of ships
hundreds of aircraft and thousands of
personnel the Taiwanese economy is
devastated and the Chinese suffer
heavily also they lose hundreds of ships
hundreds of aircraft and thousands of
personnel it is devastating for all
concerns so we make a variety of
recommendations at the end to enhance
deterrence and if deterrence fails to
bring the conflict to a conclusion more
rapidly let's back up for a second can
you give us
context about how a war game actually
works uh yes this is a physical war game
there are two maps one is a five foot by
six foot map of the Western Pacific
that's where we play the operational
aspects of the game the air and Naval
conflict is a smaller map of Taiwan
where we played the ground game
the game has about 2500 counters that
represent air Naval Ground Forces
missile forces and it has two sides a
Chinese side and a U.S Japan Taiwanese
side
we had participants from the spectrum of
the National Security Community a lot of
senior Military Officers retire to see
governmental officials but also members
of uh think tanks and academic
institutions are around town Mark can
you explain why doing a war game outside
of a classified environment is an
important exercise that's what we did
none of this involved any classified
information it wasn't done in a skiff it
wasn't part of a government exercise
this is in the totally in the public
domain and I think that's partly why you
know we're seeing a lot of attention for
this report it's the first of its kind
explain why this is important to do
well it's important to do because this
is such a visible public policy issue
over the last number of years of course
the Chinese have built a very powerful
military and the rhetoric has become
increasingly aggressive so uh now what
was once considered outside of the realm
of possibility is now an everyday
discussion that is a Chinese invasion of
Taiwan we believed it was important to
have a public discussion so that all
elements of the National Security
Community could participate and that we
could lay out
all of our assumptions why we made the
assumptions we did What alternative
assumptions uh were out there where we
got our numbers and how we came to our
conclusions so that the whole Community
could participate in a discussion of
this important policy issue
so you know in your report you mentioned
you know at the onset of this discussion
that the United States suffers heavy
losses Taiwan suffers heavy losses China
suffers heavy losses what are some of
the losses that your war game projected
for the United States the United States
loses 10 to 20 surface combatants
including on almost all of the
iterations to carriers they are
vulnerable to Chinese missiles Chinese
missiles are numerous and accurate two
of our aircraft carriers we lose two of
the aircraft carriers get sunk right off
the bat wow yeah the problem that the
United States has is that our Doctrine
and our policy is to send forces forward
in a crisis to enhance deterrence and
strength of War fighting if conflict
occurs the problem is
a great deterrence can also be a great
Target and what happens is as the United
States pushes forces forward bombers
aircraft carriers aircraft they get
inside the Chinese Missile Range and
when the Chinese decide to attack
they're very vulnerable we lose a couple
aircraft carriers which is catastrophic
you know the United States only has what
do we have 15 aircraft carriers total uh
12. we have 12. okay so we lose two of
12 in this exercise that's catastrophic
what are some of the other losses that
we would suffer we lose 10 to 20 surface
combatants and hundreds of aircraft
generally 200 to 400 U.S aircraft but
sometimes as many as 500
interestingly most of these are lost on
the ground to Chinese missile attacks
the problem is that the United States
has to move these aircraft forward in
order to strike at the Chinese Fleet
particularly its amphibious forces that
puts them inside the Chinese Missile
Range so that Chinese missiles will
regularly attack the airfields the
United States loses hundreds of
aircrafts on the ground but nevertheless
can continue to attack the Chinese Fleet
and over time a traded so the Chinese
cannot sustain their invasion of Taiwan
so it's no wonder that we're getting a
lot of inquiries from Capitol Hill
members of Congress and their staff want
you to brief them on this exercise
because you know there's a real heavy
cost to the United States getting
involved in a conflict like this what
are some of the costs to China what are
some of the costs to Taiwan in
comparison to the United States
well let me say first for the United
States this level of casualties is
unprecedented since the second world war
the United States loses about half as
many troops in three weeks as it did in
20 years of conflict in Iraq and
Afghanistan for the Air Force and navy
this is going to be particularly
traumatic because they've operated in
sanctuaries since the second world war
they're going to lose aircraft and ships
at a rate that they've haven't
experienced in a long time
the example we use is on okinaw the US
Air Base there follow on aircraft will
land on a base where the runways are all
pop marked with craters they're going to
taxi past hundreds of U.S aircraft that
have been destroyed on the ground and
bulldozed uh to the side of the runway
they're going to move into a Barracks
that was recently emptied because the
previous Squadron was destroyed on the
ground and the hospitals will be filled
with hundreds of casualties and these
follow-on forces can be told welcome to
Okinawa tomorrow you fly against the
Chinese that did all this destruction
the U.S Air Force and they have not
lived in that kind of environment it's a
cultural change for them
the senior leadership understands that
when you listen to their their comments
they recognize that conflict against a
peer competitor will be different from
what we've experienced really for an
entire generation but that will take
time to percolate down into the entire
uh Institution
looking at Taiwan and Japan and China
for Taiwan the
conflict will be devastating although
they sustain themselves as an autonomous
entity the economy is devastated because
the Chinese of course are landing on uh
their island is fighting on the island
in many of their cities much of the
infrastructure gets destroyed as the
Chinese tried to pin down Taiwanese
forces and a Taiwanese lose a lot of
their Air Force and their Navy right off
the bat though they're very exposed one
of our recommendations is that they move
over time towards anti-ship anti-airs
systems on land that are less vulnerable
because they're in a very different
environment
the Chinese also lose a lot of forces
they lose hundreds of ships and hundreds
of aircraft uh and then if their
Invasion fails as it usually does they'd
probably be thousands maybe tens of
thousands of pows it's a level of loss
that might endanger the stability of the
Chinese communist regime
the Japanese also get dragged into the
war frequently in something like 19 of
our 24 iterations that the Japanese get
dragged in because of the U.S bases that
connection with Japan is absolutely
vital for the United States we have to
use those bases because they're close to
Taiwan our own bases in places like Guam
and in Australia are just too far away
to sustain the fight so the United
States needs that connection with Japan
the problem is that often Japan gets
Dragged In also this is heavy duty all
around what are some of the losses that
extend beyond the battlefield what are
some of the larger implications
there are two larger implications the
one is that the entire Globe will feel
the effects of this conflict because of
course much of the computer chip
industry is on Taiwan and that would be
entirely disrupted further the Chinese
economy exports to the rest of the world
much of that would be disrupted so the
whole world will feel the effects of
this conflict even if they are not
directly involved
another effect that we worry about is
that although the United States prevails
that this might set off a sentiment for
isolationism as we saw after the first
world war the United States might
withdraw from much of the world and
leave that then exposed to other
adversaries
Russia Iran or others
the other question I have along these
lines is what did your report show in
terms of hurting the United States
standing globally if we were to engage
in such a conflict
well such a conflict would take the
entire attention of the United States we
did run some excursions where the United
States was diverted by other crises
Ukraine for example the Middle East so
couldn't flow quite as many forces but
it's the casualties that would have a
lasting effect first it would take many
years to replace the ships and aircraft
that are lost but there's also the risk
that the United States will become
disillusioned with overseas commitments
and pull back in a kind of isolationism
that we saw in the 1920s so Mark the war
game results in the report concluded
that the United States urgently needs to
strengthen its deterrence what steps
should the United States take to make
that happen
there are a variety of things that the
United States should do for example we
need to build hardened shelters in
places like Guam but also in Japan and
the reason is that 90 of aircraft losses
were on the ground because they were
exposed to Chinese missile attacks
building heart and shelters will protect
them it's not 100 protection but it
greatly complicates the Chinese attack
problem
we need to increase the flow of
equipment to Taiwan the FMS process is
slow and is probably blame on both sides
but one thing we found was that once the
War Began you couldn't get anything onto
Taiwan in other words
the Chinese bubble over Taiwan was so
tight you couldn't get reinforcements
onto the island or Logistics on several
iterations the U.S player tried to do
that it was always a failure they lost
entire battalions and squadrons of ships
trying to get through this Chinese
bubble that means that the strategy
we've used with Ukraine will not work
once the War Began of course with
Ukraine we've flowed weapons and
Munitions to Ukraine the Russians have
tried to interdict that flow but they
haven't been able to do that that
strategy won't work with Chinese in an
attack on Taiwan another thing that pops
out is the need for larger inventories
of Munitions particularly long-range
anti-ship Munitions those Munitions
coupled with bombers were very effective
the bombas could be based outside of the
Chinese defensive Zone they could fly
into it launch long-range missiles
against the Chinese Fleet those were
devastating the problem was the U.S
inventory lasted 3 three days three days
wow typically one turn the problem was
that we have a lot of land attack
Munitions very few anti-ship Munitions
and our current plans don't change that
so one of our recommendations is we need
to we need to switch the balance towards
these anti-ship Munitions many of them
of course would need to be launched from
Air Force aircraft although the Air
Force has a long history of doing
anti-ship operations that's not what
they're inclined to do and they need to
push to do more in that regard
so the weapon you're talking about is
known as a long-range anti-ship missile
or lorazum is what we call them right
there's about 450 that the United States
currently possesses you're saying those
stockpiles are going to run out quickly
in such an event we need to beef up you
know at the same time this morning I was
listening to CNBC and you know the guys
were talking about how you know defense
stocks defense company stocks and how
because of the new makeup of the the
Congress and because of the war in
Ukraine and because of stuff like what
we're talking about here defense stocks
are pretty hard to game out but they
could be pretty hot I don't I'm not
asking you to speculate on the stock
market or anything but we are talking
about a real crisis if the United States
runs low on equipment and Munitions
aren't we
well we are and as we've highlighted
this shortage of lorazm the long-range
anti-ship missiles and I'd note that
we've estimated that in 2026 we might
have 450 today we probably have about
200 because we included some that are
going to be produced between now and
2026 which is when the game uh is set
this problem about munition stockpiles
is a general one we're seeing problems
with our shipments to Ukraine that many
areas many Munitions are running low
csis has published a number of
commentaries analyzing that flow the one
good thing here is that what we're
sending to Ukraine for the most part
does not affect our ability to fight a
war in the Western Pacific what we're
sending to Ukraine focuses on ground
combat anti-tank weapons for example
whereas the war in the Western Pacific
would be mostly air enabled so by
supporting Ukraine we are not
undermining our ability to defend Taiwan
but we have a com common problem in that
our Munitions inventories for all of
this are very low a key capability for
the United States was submarines whereas
the surface ships were quite vulnerable
submarines wrecked Havoc with the
Chinese Fleet particularly the
amphibious Fleet in the Taiwanese
Straits it's important to ensure that
the United States keeps building attack
submarines and that they have the
Munitions that they need because they
were so effective we call it the happy
time for you as submarines because they
are so effective against Chinese
shipping and that's a reference to
actually experience in World War II back
to your report and your war game you
listed four conditions for Success that
are necessary to defeat a Chinese
invasion of Taiwan what are these four
conditions and How likely did your your
exercise show that they could be met
well we've talked about some of these
conditions about long-range Munitions
one critical condition is that the
Taiwanese fight all of this is
predicated on the notion that they will
resist and resist effectively we think
that that's a reasonable assumption but
it is not a given and the Taiwanese are
going to have to step up both with their
own preparations and Military and
civilian we note the importance of the
connection with Japan as we've talked
about earlier the U.S bases in Japan are
absolutely critical we know the
importance of Taiwan improving its
Ground Forces
historically Taiwan is focused on air
and Naval forces because those were able
to keep the Chinese at Bay for most of
the 50 70 years since Taiwan was
established the problem now is that the
Chinese air and Naval capabilities are
so strong that they will overwhelm
Taiwanese air and Naval capabilities so
the ground forces are going to be much
more important they need to be effective
enough that they can contain a Chinese
Bridgehead and by time then for the U.S
Japan and Taiwanese forces to attract
the Chinese amphibious Fleet so that
they cannot reinforce their retails and
ultimately the Taiwanese are able to
eliminate it so Mark where do we go from
here what do you predict the next couple
months or years even to look like in
terms of Taiwan China relations
well I certainly hope that our project
has helped to put some issues on the
table so that the public the
administration and Congress can debate
these I would be wonderful the Congress
could hold some hearings on issues like
Munitions inventories like hardened
shelters things that would really help
both War fighting and deterrence it's
important to recognize that it's
probably also going to take some
additional resources this doesn't
require across the board increases but
it does require some targeted increases
to increase capabilities in the Western
Pacific Mark thanks so much for helping
us understand this really complicated
issue and you know your really important
war game that you did this week it's on
csis.org if anybody wants to see the
report there's video that goes along
with it as well Mark thanks so much
well thanks for having me
enjoyed this podcast check out our
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[Music]
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