Why Youth Unemployment Is Surging In China
Summary
TLDRChina, la segunda mayor economía del mundo, enfrenta múltiples problemas, como la crisis inmobiliaria, restricciones a semiconductores y una preocupante tasa de desempleo juvenil, que alcanzó un récord del 20.8%. Esto ha llevado al gobierno a dejar de publicar estos datos. La desaceleración económica, la falta de empleos adecuados para jóvenes educados y las estrictas regulaciones en sectores como la tecnología están agravando la situación. Aunque muchos jóvenes no se ven afectados económicamente debido a la riqueza generada por sus padres, la incertidumbre económica y el estancamiento laboral persisten, alimentando una competencia feroz por empleos limitados.
Takeaways
- 🌍 China, la segunda economía más grande del mundo, enfrenta múltiples problemas, incluidos el sector inmobiliario, las prohibiciones de semiconductores y fluctuaciones en el mercado laboral.
- 📉 El desempleo juvenil en China alcanzó un récord del 20,8% en jóvenes de entre 16 y 24 años, una situación preocupante que llevó al gobierno a dejar de publicar estos datos.
- 💼 El crecimiento económico lento y la reducción de oportunidades para graduados recientes han contribuido a este aumento en el desempleo juvenil.
- 🏘️ La caída en el sector inmobiliario, especialmente después de las políticas de Covid cero, ha afectado gravemente la riqueza de los hogares y la confianza de los consumidores.
- 📉 Las empresas chinas, especialmente en el sector tecnológico, no están contratando al mismo ritmo que antes, con algunos sectores como bienes raíces y educación severamente afectados.
- 💸 Los jóvenes chinos, a pesar de no estar empleados, pueden vivir cómodamente debido a la riqueza acumulada por sus padres durante el auge económico de las últimas décadas.
- 📊 Las exportaciones e importaciones de China han disminuido considerablemente, con caídas importantes en sectores clave como el petróleo crudo y las exportaciones a EE. UU. y la UE.
- 🤖 El enfoque a largo plazo de China en tecnologías como la inteligencia artificial podría empeorar la situación laboral para los jóvenes, reemplazando más empleos.
- 💡 Muchos jóvenes optan por continuar su educación, obteniendo más títulos, lo que en realidad solo retrasa el problema sin resolverlo.
- 🧳 El descontento económico podría estar impulsando una mayor disposición de China para entablar intercambios diplomáticos con Estados Unidos.
Q & A
¿Cuál es uno de los problemas más preocupantes que enfrenta China en términos de empleo juvenil?
-Uno de los problemas más preocupantes es la tasa de desempleo juvenil, que alcanzó un récord del 20.8% en la categoría de edad de 16 a 24 años, con alrededor de 6 millones de jóvenes aún buscando empleo.
¿Por qué China dejó de publicar datos sobre el desempleo juvenil?
-El gobierno chino dejó de publicar datos sobre el desempleo juvenil debido a la creciente atención negativa hacia las altas cifras y el impacto en la confianza pública, lo que aumentó la especulación y el temor en el mercado.
¿Cómo ha afectado la desaceleración económica a los negocios y la contratación de jóvenes en China?
-La desaceleración económica ha llevado a que las empresas contraten menos jóvenes, ya que es costoso entrenarlos y existe incertidumbre sobre si los negocios sobrevivirán o si los jóvenes permanecerán en los puestos de trabajo.
¿Cuál fue el impacto de la política de Covid-19 de China en el mercado inmobiliario?
-La política de Covid-19 en China provocó una caída drástica en el sector inmobiliario, con una disminución del 8.4% en 2022, lo que afectó gravemente el valor de los activos y la confianza de los consumidores.
¿Qué sector de la economía china ha mostrado debilidad en los últimos meses?
-El sector servicios ha mostrado debilidad, con una reducción en la inversión y en las exportaciones e importaciones, lo que refleja una desaceleración más amplia en la economía.
¿Cómo ha respondido el gobierno chino a las dificultades económicas recientes?
-El gobierno chino ha respondido reduciendo las tasas de interés para intentar contener la volatilidad del mercado durante la recesión económica, a diferencia de muchas economías desarrolladas que han subido las tasas.
¿Qué es el fenómeno de 'acostarse' en el contexto del desempleo juvenil en China?
-El fenómeno de 'acostarse' se refiere a la decisión de muchos jóvenes de no participar activamente en la carrera por empleos debido a la extrema competencia y las pocas oportunidades laborales, optando por tomarse un descanso y vivir de manera más pasiva.
¿Cómo ha afectado la regulación del sector tecnológico al empleo juvenil en China?
-Las regulaciones gubernamentales sobre las grandes empresas tecnológicas, como Alibaba y Tencent, han reducido la demanda de nuevos trabajadores, lo que ha contribuido a un menor crecimiento de empleo juvenil en este sector.
¿Qué ha sugerido el presidente Xi Jinping a los jóvenes chinos en respuesta a la situación económica?
-El presidente Xi Jinping ha instado a los jóvenes a 'comer amargura', una frase tradicional china que significa perseverar en las dificultades sin quejarse, sugiriendo que deben adaptarse a las condiciones difíciles del mercado laboral.
¿Cómo está impactando la inteligencia artificial en el mercado laboral juvenil de China?
-La inversión en inteligencia artificial tiene el potencial de reemplazar más puestos de trabajo, especialmente entre los jóvenes, lo que, aunque beneficioso a largo plazo para la economía china, podría empeorar la situación del desempleo en el corto plazo.
Outlines
😟 Problemas económicos en China y el desempleo juvenil
China, la segunda economía más grande del mundo, enfrenta graves problemas, como la crisis inmobiliaria, las restricciones en el sector de los semiconductores y fluctuaciones en el mercado laboral. El desempleo juvenil ha alcanzado un récord del 20.8%, afectando a 6 millones de jóvenes entre 16 y 24 años. El gobierno chino ha dejado de publicar estos datos, lo que genera aún más preocupaciones. El lento ritmo de contratación, especialmente para los graduados recientes, y las regulaciones sobre sectores clave, como el de alta tecnología, contribuyen al aumento del desempleo juvenil. La desaceleración económica pos-COVID ha empeorado esta situación, ya que las empresas no están contratando nuevos trabajadores debido a la incertidumbre económica.
🏠 Riqueza inmobiliaria y su impacto en la juventud china
A pesar de los problemas laborales, muchos jóvenes chinos no experimentan dificultades financieras debido a la riqueza generada por sus padres durante el auge económico de China. Entre 2010 y 2012, el valor de las propiedades inmobiliarias creció un 51%, lo que permitió a muchas familias acumular riqueza. Este fenómeno ha creado una generación de jóvenes que, aunque desempleados, viven cómodamente gracias a la prosperidad de sus familias. Sin embargo, el alto costo de las propiedades en ciudades como Shanghái ha contribuido a la falta de oportunidades laborales significativas para la juventud actual.
💼 Competencia extrema en el mercado laboral y el fenómeno 'tumbado'
A pesar de las dificultades económicas, el desempleo en China para la población de 25 a 59 años se mantiene estable en torno al 5.2%. Sin embargo, los jóvenes enfrentan una intensa competencia, con cientos de personas compitiendo por un solo puesto de trabajo. Esto ha llevado al fenómeno del 'tumbado', donde los jóvenes toman descansos del estrés laboral al no poder obtener un empleo significativo. Este fenómeno también se refleja en el aumento de personas que presentan exámenes para obtener empleos en el servicio civil, donde solo unos pocos puestos están disponibles para millones de aspirantes.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Desempleo juvenil
💡Desaceleración económica
💡Mercado inmobiliario
💡Política de cero COVID
💡Sector tecnológico
💡Regulación gubernamental
💡Consumo interno
💡Deflación
💡Mercado laboral
💡Examen del servicio civil
Highlights
China's youth unemployment rate hit a fresh record of 20.8%, with 6 million young people still looking for jobs.
China has stopped publishing youth unemployment data due to growing concerns about the figures.
China's real estate market has sharply declined, contributing to an overall economic slowdown.
Youth labor market transformation is impacting recent graduates, as there are fewer jobs requiring college degrees.
China's overall economy is facing deflationary pressures, causing consumers to spend less.
The Chinese government has cut interest rates in response to the economic downturn.
China's wealth is heavily tied to real estate, which has plummeted after years of growth.
Parents of China's youth experienced significant economic growth, providing financial cushions for many young people.
China's policy towards large technology companies shifted during COVID-19, impacting the tech job market.
China's job market has moved from manufacturing to lower-skilled service sectors, which provide poor job quality.
7.7 million people took the Chinese national civil service exam in 2023 for only 200,000 open positions.
China is increasingly investing in Artificial Intelligence, which could potentially replace more jobs, including those held by young workers.
Many young people in China are turning to graduate degrees to delay entering the labor market, which doesn’t solve the unemployment issue.
China's President Xi Jinping urged the youth to 'eat bitterness' and endure hardships without complaint.
China's economic challenges are contributing to its willingness to engage more in diplomatic exchanges with the United States.
Transcripts
The second largest economy in the world is in
trouble. China is facing a growing list of problems, real
estate, semiconductor bands and labor market gyrations. The
world's second most populous country also has a major youth
unemployment problem.
Really quite disconcerting was the youth unemployment figure,
it hit a fresh record of 20.8%. For me,
that's up from 20.4. the prior month. This is the age category
from people 16 to 24, about 96 million people, the statistics
bureau said 6 million of those are still looking for jobs.
Since the end of 2022, China's urban youth unemployment rate
has risen to 21%. The issue was getting so much attention that
China decided to stop publishing the data altogether. China's
youth employment rate now ranks with several g7 countries that
have notorious problems with getting younger workers into the
labor market, like Spain and Italy, India, the world's most
populated country, has also been dealing with a youth
unemployment problem. But China has prided itself on putting its
hundreds of millions of younger well educated citizens to work.
And the most recent data set a record for the highest youth
unemployment rate ever in China. Experts point to several reasons
for the slow pace of hiring for recent graduates and China's
youth
labor market transformation could have impacted the recent
youth unemployment rate in China and also the way the Chinese
government has been regulating some of the sectors that I
studied, including the high tech sector could have really serious
impacts on the employment situation today, my
understanding
is that just aren't the same level of jobs that require a
college degree. So there's this imbalance in terms of supply and
demand. And then that's made even worse because of the Covid
and the entire economic slowdown.
So what's happening in China? Why are younger workers not
working?
Because of the overall economic slowdown, businesses don't want
to hire as many people, especially not young people,
because you have to train them and you don't know that they'll
stay around you don't even know if your business is going to be
around.
China's economy along with other parts of the world is struggling
to find growth. A lot of Chinese wealth is tied to real estate.
And as the housing sector grew and grew in the late 20th and
early 21st centuries, homeowners saw a big increase in their net
worth, then all reversed during China's zero Covid policy.
investment in real estate began to plummet from 8.3% year over
year growth in 2018, to a sharp decline of 8.4% in 2022.
policies from Beijing have forced property developers like
Evergrande and Country Garden to default on their debts and
eventually filed for bankruptcy. shares have gone down based
Evergrande. It began trading again on August 28. After a 17
month halt, the stock plummeted 78% in the day,
consumer confidence has been declining since the beginning of
the year. Because people realize that the post Covid recovery
isn't as strong as many of them had hoped for
one area of particular weakness is the service sector.
Investment actually completed by the tertiary industry what
China's National Bureau of Statistics calls the service
industry has tapered off in the last six months compared to a
year ago. Even imports and exports to and from the country
are down in most sectors, including a 23% drop in exports
to the United States and a 21% drop in exports to the European
Union in July compared to last year. All while imports of crude
oil dropped 21% in July from a year ago. Just year to date the
country's imports have fallen 7.6% from last year.
Some of the problems in China may be deflationary. But you
know, if if China is experiencing deflation, that
doesn't change the fact that consumers aren't really spending
consumers aren't spending in China. And they're not spending
abroad either.
As a result of pressures on the economy and limited spending,
the Chinese government decided to cut interest rates in a very
different movie than the rest of the developed world
before Chinese government really wants to contain any of the
market volatility, especially during the economic downturn.
And from the beginning of this year, there were a lot of
speculations in the market over any big change in the
macroeconomic data. So it's in a way becoming a self fulfilling
prophecy, because the government is so worried that there might
be too much attention for certain types of data And then
they do not wish to disclose too much of it. And as a result,
there are more speculation and more fear in the market.
A lot of the young people right now, their parents lived through
China's big economic boom in the last couple of decades. So a lot
of the parents have made a lot of money. And you know, the
kids, even if they're not fully employed or employed at all, it
doesn't mean that they're financially affected, they might
be still be living very comfortable lives just because
of how affluent their families have become.
One study conducted by a Yale University researcher determined
just how much household wealth increased between 2010 and 2012.
And China, the data showed between those two years, housing
assets grew 51% in value.
And then what happens in China was in the last 1015 years, the
housing market has skyrocketed. And then the value of the second
first tier cities property, especially first tier city, my
experience research mostly in Shanghai, it was six votes
tenfold, right? That's how people are sitting on this
wells. And these are those young people's parents generation. And
the in the US, we're talking about, oh, the baby boomers,
they got everything.
China's overall urban unemployment rate has remained
relatively steady all year, hovering around 5.2%, the 25 to
59 year old population has seen steady employment as well. But
that number hovering around 4% Since March, that's leading some
to call younger demographic groups, quote, professional
children, even if
they're not fully employed or employed at all. It doesn't mean
that they're financially affected, they might be still be
living right comfortable lives just because of how affluent
their families have become. And so that also contributes to Hey,
maybe I can just take some time off and live flat.
I don't think people are buying it because they were not lazy.
Like I said, they study really hard. They compete really hard.
And then they're competing for jobs, like hundreds of people
applying for one position. They
are recently heard another way to characterize the situation,
in doing situps. It's sort of expressing this idea that
whatever sector you you try to make your way in, whether it's
coffee or real estate or tourism. It's extremely
competitive because everyone's been trying to get and have
their slice of the same pie. So if you're doing sit ups, you're
taking breaks between lying flat, and also participating in
this intense rat race. One
way this sitting up phenomenon has played out is via the
country's national civil service exam. In March 2023, more than
7.7 million people took the civil service exam in China, the
first step toward getting a government job. Thing is there
were only 200,000 Open civil service positions.
Certainly the internet platform companies like Alibaba, Tencent,
they also saw massive growth in the last two decades that had
driven significant demand for young people as well. And with
different regulations. In the last couple years, we've seen
that these industries have been clamped down on by by the
government or at least restricted in a way that, you
know, they're not hiring necessarily at the pace they
used to, if not laying off jobs.
China's policy towards some of its largest technology companies
took a significant shifts during COVID-19 when Xi Jinping began
his third term in office. In 2020, regulators suspended what
would have been at the time, the world's largest IPO on record
from Alibaba, ant group, and Shanghai and Hong Kong
exchanges, due to quote significant issues such as the
changes in the financial technology regulatory
environment.
So before 2015 is the continuing on growth of wage across
different sectors, including labor intensive manufacturing,
like labor intensive or services. But the situation's
began to change in the mid 2010s. So basically, the job
moved from the manufacturing sector to the low skilled
service sector. But the problem is that the low skill service
sector don't really solve the problem because they are
generating very bad jobs.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged the youth to eat
bitterness, a more traditional Chinese phrase, which means to
persevere through hardship without complaint, or even to
suffer.
The China's policy focus has been more and more on the long
term. And that's why we have seen a lot of stress on economic
security. And that means way more investment into the kind of
technology that will be meaningful in the long term, but
not so much for the short term. Artificial Intelligence will be
one of such example just by putting more money into AI, it
has the potential to replace even more workers, especially
young workers in the near future. So it's not necessarily
good for job creation. But it's very important for China's long
term growth.
On the other hand, though, it actually does look like the
economic malaise that China is experiencing, may be
contributing to its apparently increasing willingness to come
to the table and engage in diplomatic exchanges with the
United States.
You look at their import numbers, you look at their
export numbers, all again, read negative, and we invest in other
parts of Asia, Australia, South Korea, Japan. But at this point,
I think it's prudent for folks like us and your viewers to
start to rethink how they're going to deploy capital in
China.
Many young people used to graduate and maybe go into real
estate, education after school tutoring, internet technology
companies, coding jobs, even government positions, and those
are really not necessarily where the future of China is going to
be heavily focused on
the Chinese you for they tend to pursue graduate degrees as a
strategy to deal with labor market difficulty. So the
problem is that they are becoming more and more educated.
But the problem is that you're just delaying postponing the
problems but you are not solving the problem. You are getting
more and more degreed that don't really give you any return.
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