🔴 A Warning SHOT Not Seen in a 100 YEARS!!
Summary
TLDRDer Skript analysiert eine pessimistische Arbeitsmarkt-Aktualität, mit einer Korrektur von 88.000 weniger erstellten Arbeitsplätzen als ursprünglich gemeldet. Dies wirft Fragen über die Genauigkeit der Arbeitsmarktstatistiken auf und beeinflusst die Währung, Rohstoffe und die Aktienmärkte. Die Diskussion umfasst auch die FOMC-Entscheidungen, Inflationsraten und die Auswirkungen auf Gold und Silber. Zudem werden die unterschiedlichen Reaktionen von Einzelunternehmen auf die wirtschaftlichen Verhältnisse hervorgehoben, einschließlich der Auswirkungen auf Tech-Giganten und Einzelhändler sowie die Rolle der chinesischen Wirtschaft und geopolitischer Spannungen.
Takeaways
- 📉 Die Arbeitsmarktzahlen wurden nach unten korrigiert: Im Zeitraum von April 2023 bis März 2024 wurden 88.000 weniger Arbeitsplätze geschaffen als ursprünglich berichtet.
- 📈 Obwohl die Korrektur erwartet wurde, hatte sie keinen signifikanten Einfluss auf den Aktienmarkt, der am Ende des Tages höher schloss.
- 💹 Der US-Dollar erreichte ein Jahrestief, was auf eine schwächere Arbeitsmarktlage hindeutet und die Notenbank dazu brachte, ihre Politik zu überdenken.
- 📊 Die Rohstoffmärkte zeigten eine Mischung aus Reaktionen, wobei der Aktienmarkt insgesamt resilient blieb und die Bond-Renditen sanken.
- 📊 Die Währung und die Bondmärkte reagierten auf die Korrektur der Arbeitsmarktzahlen, was auf eine zukünftig dovischere FED-Politik hindeutet.
- 📉 Die Dollar-Index erreichte ein Jahrestief, was auf eine Schwächung des US-Dollars und möglicherweise auf eine lockerere Geldpolitik hinweist.
- 📈 Die Rohölpreise waren unter Druck, was auf eine Schwächung der wirtschaftlichen Nachfrage und eine Abnahme der Inflationserwartungen hindeutet.
- 📈 Goldpreise nahmen zu, was auf eine Zunahme der Marktunsicherheit und eine Flucht in sichere Anlagen hindeutet.
- 📊 Die Analyse der Rohstoffmärkte zeigt, dass es in den kommenden Jahren ein signifikantes Ungleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage geben könnte, was die Preise stärken könnte.
- 🏛️ Die Diskussion um die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur und die Reaktionen auf sie weisen auf eine zunehmende Unsicherheit über die wirtschaftliche Zukunft hin und die Notwendigkeit, auf potenzielle Schwächungen vorzubereiten.
Q & A
Was war das Hauptthema des Finanzmedien heute?
-Das Hauptthema des Finanzmedien heute war die große nachträgliche Korrektur auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Die US-Wirtschaft hat 88.000 weniger Arbeitsplätze geschaffen als ursprünglich gemeldet, was etwa 30% weniger Arbeitsplätze im Vergleich zum ursprünglichen Bericht bedeutet.
Wie hat der Aktienmarkt auf die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur reagiert?
-Der Aktienmarkt hat sich widerstandsfähig gezeigt und am Ende des Tages sogar höher geschlossen. Dies zeigt, dass der Markt die Korrektur möglicherweise nicht als schlagartig negative Neuigkeit aufgefasst hat.
Was ist die Bedeutung der nachträglichen Korrektur für die FOMC-Entscheidungen?
-Die nachträgliche Korrektur könnte die Entscheidungen der FOMC beeinflussen, da eine schwächere Arbeitsmarktlage die Notwendigkeit einer Senkung der Zinsen rechtfertigen könnte, um die Wirtschaft zu stimulieren.
Wie hat der US-Dollar auf die Arbeitsmarktnachricht reagiert?
-Der US-Dollar hat auf die Arbeitsmarktnachricht mit Schwäche reagiert und ist auf ein Jahrestief gestiegen, was darauf hindeutet, dass der Markt eine dovischere FOMC-Haltung erwarten könnte.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Rohstoffmärkte für die Inflationserwartungen?
-Die Rohstoffmärkte, insbesondere der Preis für Rohöl, deuten auf eine Abnahme der Inflationserwartungen hin, was die Wahrungs- und Anleihenmärkte beeinflusst hat.
Wie hat die Berichterstattung über die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierung beeinflusst?
-Die Berichterstattung hat die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierung in Bezug auf die Genauigkeit ihrer Daten und Analysen in Frage gestellt, da eine signifikante Abweichung von den ursprünglichen Schätzungen auftrat.
Was ist die Rolle der illegalen Einwanderer im Arbeitsmarkt, wie von Goldman Sachs dargestellt?
-Goldman Sachs argumentiert, dass die季onale Zensus der Beschäftigung und Löhne, die für die Nachberechnungen verwendet wird, viele unerlaubte Einwanderer ausschließt, die nicht im Arbeitslosenversicherungssystem eingetragen sind, was die nachträgliche Korrektur übertrieben erscheinen lässt.
Welche Auswirkungen hat die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur auf die Anleihenmärkte?
-Die Anleihenmärkte haben auf die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur mit einem Absinken der Zinsen reagiert, was darauf hindeutet, dass der Markt eine zukünftige Zinssenkung durch die FOMC erwarten könnte.
Wie steht der Goldpreis im Vergleich zu früheren historischen Hochs?
-Der Goldpreis ist noch nicht einmal an den inflationsbereinigten Hochs von 1980 erreicht, was darauf hindeutet, dass Gold im Vergleich zur aktuellen Geldmenge noch unter seinen historischen Höchstständen liegt.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Entwicklungen im Silbermarkt für zukünftige Preisbewegungen?
-Der Silbermarkt zeigt ein Wachstum der Nachfrage, insbesondere durch die Elektronik- und Solarsektoren, während die Produktion gesunken ist. Dies könnte zu einer langfristigen Diskrepanz zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage führen, was eine starke Anziehungskraft für Preise sein könnte.
Welche Rolle spielen die chinesischen Regierungsausgaben in der globalen Wirtschaftslage?
-Die chinesischen Regierungsausgaben sind in einem klaren Abwärtstrend, was auf eine sparsamere Wirtschaftspolitik hindeutet, im Gegensatz zu den USA, wo die Regierungsausgaben zunehmen.
Was ist die Bedeutung der bevorstehenden FOMC-Mitgliedschaft von J. Powell für die Märkte?
-Die bevorstehenden Äußerungen von J. Powell sind von Bedeutung, da der Markt seine Reaktionen auf die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur und die zukünftige FOMC-Politik maßgeblich von seinen Aussagen abhängig machen wird.
Outlines
📉 Arbeitsmarkt-Schwächung und Dollar-Tiefststand
Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt ein bearisches Zeichen, da das Arbeitsministerium die Zahl der Payrolls um 88.800 in die Tiefe korrigiert. CNBC's Rick Santell gibt einen Überblick über die Situation, die innerhalb der erwarteten Grenzen von 350.000 bis einer Million liegt. Er zeigt, wie der Dollar und die Aktienmärkte auf diese Neuigkeit reagiert haben, insbesondere die S&P 500, die trotz der Korrektur am Ende des Tages im Plus liegt. Die Diskussion um die Zuverlässigkeit der Arbeitsmarktzahlen und die Auswirkungen auf die FED-Politik, sowie die Rolle der illegalen Einwanderer in der Arbeitsmarktstatistik, werden thematisiert. Es wird auch auf die Reaktionen im Rohstoffmarkt und die Warnsignale für die Wirtschaft eingegangen.
📈 Aktienmarkt widersteht Arbeitsmarkt-Revision
Die Aktienmärkte haben die massive Revision des Arbeitsmarkts relativ unbeeindruckt überlebt. Es wird diskutiert, dass die tatsächliche Arbeitsmarkt-Revision durch die Berücksichtigung illegaler Einwanderer, die in der Arbeitsmarktstatistik nicht erfasst sind, geringer ausfallen könnte. Die Reaktionen auf diese Neuigkeit im Finanzmarkt, insbesondere die des US-Dollars und des Rohstoffmarktes, werden dargestellt. Es wird auch auf die Aussage des aktuellen Handelsministers Gina Raimondo eingegangen, die sich von der Berichterstattung distanziert, und die Diskussion um die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierung in Bezug auf die Genauigkeit der Arbeitsmarktberichte wird geführt.
📊 Analyse der Wirtschaftsdaten und Marktreaktionen
Diese Passage fasst die Reaktionen verschiedener Finanzmärkte auf die Arbeitsmarkt-Revision zusammen, wobei der Fokus auf den Anleihen, dem Aktienmarkt und dem Rohstoffmarkt liegt. Es wird auf die Aussagen von Goldman Sachs eingegangen, die die Arbeitsmarkt-Revision relativieren, und es werden mögliche Auswirkungen auf die FED-Politik diskutiert. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen auf den US-Dollar, die Inflationserwartungen und die Bedeutung von Marktanalysen hervorgehoben.
💰 Rohstoffe, Währungen und geopolitische Spannungen
In diesem Abschnitt werden die Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftsdaten auf Rohstoffe und Währungen diskutiert. Es wird auf die Tendenzen im Gold- und Silbermarkt, die Anziehungskraft für Emerging Market-Währungen und die geopolitischen Spannungen eingegangen, die trotz scheinbarer Ruhe weiter präsent sind. Die Rolle der chinesischen Wirtschaft und der FED-Politik bei der Bestimmung der wirtschaftlichen Ausrichtung wird ebenso thematisiert wie die Erwartungen an die zukünftigen Entwicklungen im Rohstoff- und Aktienmarkt.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Arbeitsmarkt
💡Revision
💡Dollarindex
💡Inflation
💡Bundesreserve
💡Aktienmarkt
💡Rohstoffe
💡Geschäftsberichte
💡Technische Analyse
💡Volatilität
Highlights
劳工部修正了美国的就业数据,显示就业人数比预期少了88,000人。
尽管就业数据被大幅下调,但股市显示出韧性,标准普尔500指数当日收高。
美元指数触及年度低点,显示出市场对就业数据修正的反应。
市场对就业数据的修正反应有限,专家认为这并不意味什么,因为数据是旧的。
就业市场的修正可能会影响到美联储的政策决策。
债券市场显示出对就业数据修正的预期,2年期国债收益率持续下跌。
高盛认为就业数据的修正可能夸大了就业增长的高估程度。
美国政府和劳工统计局因就业数据修正而受到信誉质疑。
金融市场对就业数据修正的反应不一,美国股市和债市表现相对乐观。
大宗商品市场对就业数据修正的反应较为明显,尤其是原油价格。
黄金价格接近历史新高,显示出市场对经济不确定性的担忧。
零售业财报显示市场对消费者支出的担忧,Target和Macy's的财报对比明显。
全球经济的不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势对市场的影响。
投资者对市场的反应和策略调整,包括对黄金和大宗商品的投资。
美联储可能在下个月降息,市场对此的预期和反应。
市场对经济衰退的担忧和对未来货币政策的预期。
Transcripts
a bearish sign today for the job market
the labor department revising us
payrolls down by 8818 th000 cnbc's Rick
santell has more on that Rick yes lesie
you know it wasn't a shock and it was
within the range of what we expected
350,000 up to a million and as you look
at the charts I put a two-year going all
the way back to May of 23 because we are
TW with potentially closing under 388
briefly but we didn't do it we avoided
the worst case same could be said for
tens which closed almost virtually
unchanged after a very volatile session
so we didn't comp it back to uh July of
last year but we're very close the
dollar Index stuck that weakness stuck
we did close at the lowest levels of the
year $818,000 I guess what concerns me
most is how little attention was paid to
it with respect to the experts they said
it really doesn't mean anything it's old
you know it's from April of 23 to March
of 24 all Z know is that a few bricks of
that fed foundation with regard to what
their policy is built on was predicated
on a strong labor market now we find
it's not nearly as strong as we thought
it was coming up today a huge downward
Revision in the jobs Market is it all
just smoke and mirrors the US dollar
hits a yearly low the warning signal not
seen in a century the latest retail
earnings and all the action in the
Commodities Market you're going to like
this one
[Music]
guys and so you got to admit the stock
market is pretty resilient in the face
of that huge downward revision in the US
jobs market for the year ending march
2024 apparently the Bureau of Labor
Statistics got it wrong by
88,000 quite the Miss and pretty
convenient in an election year too if
you ask me did get a bit of a reaction
out of currency and bond markets which
I'll show you a bit later on just
looking at the S&P 500 here remarkably
finished the day higher still looking
really green across Market color pretty
much perfect bond yields oil energy the
dollar and inflation expectations all
read across the board however
technically we could be setting up a bit
of a bearish Divergence double top here
can see that on my main technical chart
as well just fired off the second
consecutive reversal signal and this
resistance Zone it's definitely been
tested wouldn't be surprised if we smash
up to new alltime highs especially after
we hear from J pal I'd say it's pretty
much guaranteed he's going to start
cutting rates next month after the jobs
Market's been completely goosed and
that's pretty much half of his dual
mandate two big areas of the economy
they really focus on jobs and inflation
jobs Market apparently not as strong as
we've all been led to believe but that
didn't here to upset the stock market at
all Russell 2000 back to holding above
its 50-day up 1.3% today volume breadth
pretty good along with Market breath
still pretty firm here as well did get a
little bit of a bump up in volatility
markets but stick with me cuz we'll come
back to the charts in a bit and I'll
show you what else is moving out there
today first let's just talk a bit about
the main headline across Financial media
today and that's the big downward
Revision in the jobs Market US economy
added 88,000 fewer jobs than initially
reported from April 2023 through March
2024 which equates to about 30% Less
jobs created in the US economy than what
we initially thought still saw net job
growth in that time however which way
you cut it jobs Market is weaker than
reported and it's kind of insulting to
all of us in financial media who have to
rely on these data prints to work out
our analysis and opinions on markets
just really undermines the reputation of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics the
government in general and you would
think in today's day and age with all
the cloud data analy ICS AI all this
stuff should be reported accurately
pretty much in real time if not weekly
or monthly and sure they'll always have
to clean up their numbers at a later
date however missing by 30% kind of bit
of a joke isn't it really just makes you
question a lot of their reporting but as
always that's why we key off price
action and technical analysis first and
foremost looks like the bond market saw
this coming has been trading really weak
big gap between the FED funds rate in
the 2-year and there's a look at the
revision broken up into different
categories with professional and
business Services Leisure and
Hospitality trade transportation and
utilities and Manufacturing having the
biggest downward revisions and just to
put it into context their down revision
easily the biggest in the last decade
and in fact it was just behind the
alltime record back in 2009 in which the
government did a down revision to the
jobs Market $824,000 just 6,000 more
jobs than this time however that was in
the midst of the global financial crisis
a literal one in a 100-year financial
storm that threw plenty of numbers out
of whack what was their excuse this year
however not all as it seems just looking
at a research note here from Goldman
Sachs they think today's downward
revision to payroll growth exaggerates
the degree to which job growth has been
overstated by about 500,000 both because
the qcw that's quarterly census of
employment and wages likely excludes
many unauthorized immigrants who are not
in the unemployment insurance system
that's what they use to get better
numbers when they do their revisions
instead of the initial surveys but we're
correctly picked up in the payrolls
initially and because the qcw itself has
tended to be revised up in recent years
as a result we think the true downward
revision should be about 300,000 or
25,000 per month which would imply that
monthly job growth over this period was
closer to 215,000 to 220,000 than the
initially reported
242,000 but not as low as the 174,000
pace implied by the revisions today
again that's not hard to believe at all
United States has had a record amount of
illegal immigrants over the last four
years absolutely exploded like never
before in history and of course most of
them are working illegally they don't
have insurance they're not showing up in
the insurance system where they finalize
their numbers however they do sharpen
the payrolls surveys they go into the
initial headline reports so I guess when
you got millions of illegal immigrants
entering your border it does muddy
things quite a bit and it's further
muddied when the current sitting
Secretary of Commerce Gina Rondo was
questioned today that nearly a million
jobs that have apparently been created
do not exist she she said she doesn't
believe it and the reporter said it's
from the Bureau of Labor to which she
responded I'm not familiar with that so
like I said the whole thing just
undermines the government's reputation
and credibility for accurate reporting
they should just Outsource the whole
thing to the private sector who will do
a way better job at giving accurate data
analytics on the jobs Market however
let's not get our hopes up on that
happening anytime soon just looking at
the reactions in financial markets we
did see treasury yields trade pretty
heavy today given a lift to bond ETFs
and just looking at the 2-year yield
here like I've been saying it already
been trading pretty heavy this last 2
months like it already knew this was
coming still down a little lower today
it could be finding a bottom here as I
can see a bit of a Divergence on my DSI
as we're starting to form a bit of a
double bottom and it could be a bit of
the sell the rumor buy the news here
getting a similar pattern on the tenure
as well bit of a bullish Divergence on a
potential double bottom however we
really do need these levels to be
defended pretty soon if we get down to
375 cuz if we break down here make a new
low that's really not a good sign for
economic growth around the corner but
like I've been saying since two Mondays
ago I'm still cautiously optimistic on
risk markets and the economy High your
bonds actually traded up today just like
the stock market couldn't care less
about this massive Revision in the jobs
market like I said they may be Keen more
off what Goldman Sachs said all the
illegals working out there weren't
accounted in this big downward revision
high Y credit spreads as well over
treasury still really low here just
going out to a monthly CH on this not
worried at all not pricing in anything
bad happening anytime soon Market's more
than happy to land to risky companies
only asking 3.2 percentage points of
Premium over treasuries in return
however one market did take note of this
downward revision which is likely
implying a much more doish fed that's
the very important US dollar which just
like the 2-year as well has been trading
pretty weak these last couple of months
I think it's seen it coming but again it
could be a sell the rumor buy the news
event we are looking a little
technically stretched here in the short
term got a green reversal signal on the
chart here don't really have a bullish
Divergence on the DSi though that's not
suggesting a bottom just yet and it's
quite a bit of weakness there in the US
dollar likely giving a bit of support to
bitcoin as well just sitting at its
50-day average $61,000 a coin and stick
with me cuz I'll come back to gold in a
bit and I'll show you what's going on in
there along with the silver market got
some interesting stats for you guys but
just getting back into the macro for a
bit just got the latest print from True
flation currently tracking at an
annualized rate of 1.34% that's a yearly
low so this on top of a weaker jobs
Market in addition to the fomc minutes
we just got today as well showing the
vast majority of fed members support a
cut in September pretty much saying if
inflation comes in as expected and like
I said the balance of the scales over
the last couple of months has tipped
from the upside risk of inflation to the
downside risk of the economy Contracting
and I would be very surprised if J pal
came out with any hawkish language this
Friday in Jackson Hall I'd expect him to
kind of hint and confirm that he will
cut rates next month Bond markets and
the dollar certainly pricing that in
along with fed fund Futures which
surprisingly didn't get that much more
dobish today after that downward
revision still placing a greater than
not chance fed will cut 25 basis points
next month not 50 which again I'm
sticking to my odds of about 70% and
after today's print I would lie my odds
of them staying on hold to about 10% and
I'd put the odds at a 50 basis point cut
about 20% 1 and5 I would be very
surprised if J power stayed on hold next
month now and so more and more financial
markets are starting to price in some
potential economic weakness around the
corner 10 year bonde trading really
heavy fed fund future
pointing sharply down for the path of
interest rates over the next year got
crew testing the bottom end of support
as well already got gold ripping up
which is normally a flight to safety
trade bond funds look to have put in a
bottom potentially already in an uptrend
but a lot of the stock markets parting
Like It's 1999 which are very well could
turn out to be like if we do see a
recession next year top of that we've
got a warning signal not seen in a
century according to billionaire
investor Mark Mobius he's cautioning
against stocks ADM made a decline in the
money supply saying investors should be
keeping at least a fifth of their
portfolio in cash and what he's talking
about is the draw down and M2 money
supply in the economy and you can kind
of think of that as the liquidity in the
economy that's a total of all cash
savings money market funds kind of
short-term liquidity in the economy
which exploded coming out of covid
thanks to all the government stimulus
pretty much just throwing a lot of money
at people many of whom didn't need it
along with the FED dropping rates to
zero also flooding markets with fake
money as well just exploded liquidity in
the system along with it just about
every asset imaginable no surprise pris
at all inflation at 40-year highs thanks
to all of that as well how they're
trying to tell us now it's your local
grocery store's fault for all that
inflation however according to Mobius
this decline is historically significant
because M2 has not seen such a drop in
over 90 years said investors should look
for companies with little or no debt
moderate earnings growth and a high
return on Capital and get ready to
re-enter the market with a little bit of
dry powder on hand and it's true just
looking at M2 money supply it has peaked
out in April 2022 it's come off a little
bit I mean when you look at a 10-year
chart and even Max chart yeah is a
little draw down but it's still so much
above preco amount of money and
liquidity slushing out there and the
market just knows if things get bad
enough the fed and the government will
do it all again flood the markets and
economy with liquidity why because they
can US dollar Global Currency Reserve
allows them to get away with all that
for now but I agree with Mobius I'm
tilting my portfolios more towards
defensive companies as well to account
for the recession risk I'm referring to
investing companies with little or no
debt good liquidity on their balance
sheets still at least a little bit
growth but I am very wary of investing
in the really high growth High beta
stuff out there just technically and
fundamentally looking at valuations here
the relative forward PE of value versus
growth currently almost two standard
deviations below the average any time we
went below that was back in the late 90s
that was a great time to dollar cost
average into value stocks along with
small caps Commodities Emerging Markets
all significantly outperformed over the
following decade until they peaked out
in ' 08 as well and here's a look at a
long-term two-monthly chart of the
spread between the NASDAQ and the
Russell 2000 large tech stocks versus
small caps see that sharp Ascent in the
late '90s topped out dropped to like an
absolute Rock been melting up since
about 2007 starting to fire off some
reversal signals on this chart as well
suggesting we could be potentially a bit
extended here in the NASDAQ versus the
Russell 2000 again why I'm leaning more
towards small caps for the coming years
as well not to say I'm completely
ignoring tech stocks I still have some
I'm just preferring to lean more and
more towards small caps going forward
and on the other hand all of that growth
and valuations is kind of Justified
Nvidia is Head and Shoulders Above the
Rest companies are spending like crazy
doesn't look like it's going to reverse
anytime soon and we'll get another taste
of that next week when we get to hear
from them on their Q2 earnings expected
to deliver 64 cents per share in
earnings on 28.6 billion in Revenue
Market will be looking for a beat along
with Rosie guidance as well and we can
see a week out from the earnings report
Nvidia starting to look like the S&P 5
00 close to putting in a double top bit
of a bearish Divergence reversal signal
kind of done that hard sharp bounce back
off August 5th lows but the higher we
trade up going into earnings the bigger
and bigger the Market's expectations it
will be and that's going to be a big
event this time next week still at the
back end of Q2 earnings season few more
retailers this week Target today had a
pretty good rip once again mixed signals
from the economy and companies within it
some are struggling some are not Target
Revenue Rose 2.7% year-over-year to 25.5
billion for the fiscal second quarter
coming in bit ahead of expectations same
store sales Rose 2% guess if you adjust
that for inflation the real numbers
actually a little negative companies
buying back shares and they actually
raised their full year earnings forecast
so higher than what the street was
expecting as well hence why the elos are
loving it today and repriced it much
higher to start the day off however
finished on its lows still 10% higher
than yesterday and this had been beaten
down a bit over the last few months on
the other hand we got Macy's similar
business leveraged to us consumer
discretionary spending they got hammmer
in market today the same store sales
declined for the n9th straight quarter
down 4% that was worse than predicted
even though they beat on earnings they
lowered their revenue Outlook and
they're still in the midst of a
turnaround strategy closing stores
trying to boost margins however that's
still yet to be seen there's the
Market's reaction today down almost 13%
trading pretty heavy there and just a
look at the overall retail sector xrt
pretty much been consolidating since
March we'll keep an eye on this for
indications of the US consumer as well
with some of the most important being
Amazon and Walmart which actually just
broke up to new all-time highs last week
on the back of their earning so once
again a little mixed out there moving on
to Commodities and just like the 10 year
we got crude oil trading pretty heavy as
well most likely on demand worries Big
Dam Revision in the US jobs Market
likely didn't help things today could be
getting a bit of cooling of geia
politics with the Israel Hamas ceasefire
deal Iran looks to have backed down
doesn't look like they're going to do
that big scale response that seems
likely however the big buildup of assets
by the West in the region may have just
deterred them however that's still yet
to be known but the market certainly
isn't pricing in any action over there
anytime soon still getting Soft Data
coming out of China along with a big
increase in EVS around the world and
there's a look at crude right at the
bottom of the support Zone I've got in
there about 7140 a barrel and that could
be broken through as well good sign for
inflation just not a good sign for
economic demand and so with a lot of
financial markets pricing in a weaker US
economy the US dollar being one a lot of
large foreign investors pursuing
dollarization now got Emerging Market
currencies breaking out this is all
strong Tailwind for gold and commodities
in general and there it is just hovering
around alltime highs 2550 an ounce and
what you're looking at here is a spread
chart of the gold mining ETF GDX to the
gold ETF GLD and that's in a bit of an
uptrend this year as well close to
breaking out to highs and if I just zoom
out to a monthly chart on this spread
starting to look pretty good to me here
we may be completing potential stage one
accumulation and ready to go into a
stage two Advan The Sweet Spot in
markets where all the money's made and
miners have underperformed significantly
for a long time look at that off the
last commodity bull market Peak back in
07 miners are very volatile to the
underline but gold could stay where it
is right now and miners could still have
a lot of catching up to do and I for one
are going to keep my portfolio
definitely exposed to miners likely for
years to come and if the gold price
keeps ripping up to new alltime highs
they won't be to keep ignoring that a
lot of the companies have good balance
sheets pay dividend yields and they'll
be in a position to start buying back
loads of stock and they'll Force the
stock market elos to mark them up also
good news for gold ball price of gold
still hasn't even broken out to new
inflation adjusted highs which reached
2637 back in 1980 in fact we haven't
even taken out the highs from 2011 so
gold relative to the amount of US
dollars out there is still below alltime
highs and who knows in this bull market
this chart could go up to $10,000 and
believe it or not there's actually been
outflows of gold ETFs as a whole in this
latest bull market over the last year or
two however the market starting to come
back we can see that in the amount of
tons of gold held by GLD up these last
couple of months just as we've seen the
bond yields dive off along with the US
dollar cool chart here on the supply and
demand in the silver market just looking
over the last 9 years 2015 to 2024 total
Supply is down 4% M production is
actually low as well got to remember in
the commodity markets they' been beaten
down since 08 2010 huge under investment
multiple year lag on investment
production for a lot of them but we've
seen demand in that time up 14% with the
biggest increase coming from Electronics
thanks to the boom and the solar sector
which uses silver parts of the AI
industry are using it as well and like a
lot of commodity markets forecast to be
a huge imbalance between demand and
supply for years to come it's a strong
Tailwind for prices as well especially
if stocks ever come off and investors
start looking for what's working out
there that's how you get a pile on and a
big fat bull market central banks around
the world accumulating it at record Pace
also got the Chinese getting back to
importing a lot of silver as well really
taking a liking to Precious medals here
another thing the Chinese are doing
becoming a lot more frugal looking at a
annual percentage change of China's
fiscal expenditure government spending
in a clear downtrend over the last
decade pretty much the exact opposite to
the US government who are going in the
opposite direction and don't be fooled
just because you're not hearing it in
the headlines geopolitical tensions
haven't gone away in fact Ukraine's
getting a lot more aggressive even just
started targeting Moscow with one of the
largest drone attacks ever inside
Russian territory the Russians just
having to shoot them all down 45
Ukrainian drones this is on top of
sending troops inside Russian territory
as well and it could be just zinsky
trying to cause a showdown before the US
federal election maybe he's worried a
change in the White House could
potentially bring an end to the war and
so we should expect a continued and
larger response from the Russians on
this as well and we'll be interesting to
see how the US election plays a role in
this war along with what's going on in
Israel as well and just getting back to
the charts one thing that's not really
bullish is the spread of high beta
stocks versus low volatility just kind
of sitting at their 50-day here but
could still be in a downtrend same with
growth versus defensive sectors
discretion versus staple stocks and
obviously copper versus gold is very
weak inflation expectations still
tracking down and we do have some
strength in these defensive sectors like
utilities Staples trading up to a 52 we
high today and Healthcare stocks sitting
up there as well and there's Mega cap
Tech just kind of hanging around above
its 50-day so the Market's really just
waiting from J pal confirmation is going
to cut next month along with Nvidia
earnings be the big one next week but
volatility markets are rather tame along
with high yield bonds really just got
that weakness in the dollar and bond
yields as well along with crude oil
that's really what I'm watching this
week other than that tomorrow we'll get
pmis weekly jobless claims as usual and
we'll just have to wait and see what J
pal says this Friday morning I'll be
interested to hear his reaction to the
huge downward Revision in the jobs
Market along with his view on inflation
and any indication what sort of cut he's
going to do next month other than that
the S&P 500 is pretty much sitting at
alltime highs as we go into that thanks
very much for sticking with click
capital and I'll see you guys again
tomorrow night cheers
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