AI Predictions ― 2024 to 2030 ― Year By Year Breakdown w/ Insider Info

Summary

The speaker revisits AI predictions, acknowledging past inconsistencies and offering an updated outlook on AI's trajectory to 2030. They discuss anticipated milestones like the release of GPT 5 and commercial robots, the potential for AGI by 2027, and the broader impacts on society, including job displacement and new economic paradigms. The script suggests a period of disillusionment before breakthroughs lead to a 'New Renaissance' by 2029, with AI and robotics becoming integral to daily life.

Takeaways

• 🔮 The speaker anticipates a 'down term' for AI, with a period of disillusionment ahead but maintains a long-term optimistic view.
• 🤖 There is an expectation for incremental improvements in AI models, with GPT 5 and Claude 4 expected to be released around late 2024 or early 2025.
• 📉 The speaker notes a slowdown in AI breakthroughs due to increasing costs, but an acceleration in the release of foundation models.
• 🧩 The multimodality aspect of AI is set to expand, with more AI demonstrations from tech giants, despite some being exaggerated or misleading.
• 🤖🏭 The release of commercial and domestic robots is expected to be a significant development in the AI and robotics space.
• 🏢 For 2025, the speaker predicts a year of disillusionment as AI models like GPT 5 and Claude 4 may not reach the AGI level as hoped.
• 📊 AI models are expected to reach the 95th percentile across multiple benchmarks, which traditionally signals a 'solved problem' in machine learning.
• 💼 2025 may see more enterprise deployment of AI, with small and medium businesses leading the adoption curve due to their agility.
• 📈 By 2026, AI models are predicted to be 'Enterprise ready' and considered the first true general-purpose models, potentially qualifying as AGI.
• 🚀 The year 2029 is envisioned as a turning point, with the onset of new technologies like commercial nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and advanced AI leading to a 'New Renaissance'.
• ⏳ The speaker expects societal and economic shifts by 2030, possibly introducing concepts like post-labor economics and the potential for longevity escape velocity.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is the prediction of future milestones in the field of artificial intelligence, robotics, and their impact on society and the economy from the present until 2030.

What does the speaker believe about the current state of AI and its future developments?

The speaker believes that although AI is entering a period of disillusionment and slower progress, they remain optimistic about its future. They predict incremental improvements and multimodal capabilities in AI, along with the release of more commercial and domestic robots.

What is the expected timeline for the release of GPT 5 and Claude 4 according to the script?

GPT 5 is expected to be released in late 2024 or early 2025, and Claude 4 is also expected around the same time.

What does the speaker mean by 'diminishing returns' in the context of AI models?

The speaker refers to the point where further advancements in AI models become more expensive and less impactful, suggesting that the pace of breakthroughs will slow down even if the release of models becomes more frequent.

What is the speaker's view on the current benchmarks for measuring AI intelligence?

The speaker is critical of the current benchmarks, stating that they are not particularly useful or helpful for measuring real intelligence, as they do not account for long-term horizons, chaotic environments, adaptation, or real-world application.

What are the speaker's predictions for the year 2025 in terms of AI adoption and impact?

The speaker predicts that 2025 will be a year of disillusionment, with AI models like GPT 5 and Claude 4 not reaching AGI but showing significant improvements. They also expect more enterprise deployment of AI tools by small and medium businesses.

What does the speaker anticipate for the year 2026 in the AI industry?

The speaker anticipates that 2026 will be the year when AI models are considered enterprise-ready, with general-purpose models that can be applied across various industries and modalities.

What is the speaker's perspective on the geopolitical situation and its relation to AI by 2028?

The speaker suggests that 2028 might be a critical year with a potential new arms race and conflict with China, coinciding with the mass integration of AGI and robotics, which could lead to mass layoffs and become a significant political issue.

What does the speaker envision for the year 2029 in terms of technological advancements?

The speaker envisions 2029 as the beginning of a new renaissance with the mainstream adoption of quantum computing, commercial nuclear fusion reactors, and the widespread impact of AI on various fields such as material science and genetic engineering.

What is the speaker's long-term outlook for the year 2030 and beyond?

The speaker's long-term outlook for 2030 and beyond is optimistic, predicting the start of a new golden era characterized by the intelligence age, where AI and other technologies will reshape the economy, society, and geopolitics, potentially leading to a new paradigm of post-labor economics.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential societal and economic changes due to AI and automation?

The speaker suggests that AI and automation will lead to significant societal and economic changes, including the need for new economic paradigms such as post-labor economics, and the potential for universal basic income (UBI), while also highlighting the challenges of finding meaning and purpose in a post-labor society.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 AI Predictions and the Trough of Disillusionment

The speaker revisits their AI predictions, acknowledging a recent shift in their stance due to new insights from industry insiders. They clarify that while they expect a period of disappointment with AI, they remain optimistic. The summary of expected milestones from 2024 to 2030 is based on these insider perspectives. The speaker predicts incremental improvements in AI models like GPT 5 and Claude 4, with a focus on cost and the pace of breakthroughs, and hints at the potential for commercial and domestic robots to make significant impacts by the end of 2024.

05:02

🔮 Anticipating the Future of AI and its Enterprise Integration

The speaker forecasts that AI models will reach the 95th percentile across various benchmarks by 2025, which traditionally signals a 'solved problem' in machine learning. They discuss the limitations of current benchmarks and the need for new ones that better measure real-world intelligence. The expectation is that refined, cost-effective AI models will lead to increased enterprise deployment, particularly among small and medium businesses. However, there's skepticism among enterprise corporations about AI's readiness for large-scale integration, suggesting a slower adoption rate at the enterprise level.

10:03

🏢 The Path to Enterprise Readiness for AI Models

The speaker anticipates that by 2026, AI models will be considered enterprise-ready, following a period of disillusionment. They envision models like Claude 5 or GPT 6 as the first true general-purpose AI models, applicable across various industries and modalities. The speaker also speculates that by this time, we might be close to achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which would significantly impact the job market and the economy, possibly leading to discussions around AI safety and job protection measures.

15:04

🎬 AI's Role in the Creation of Hollywood Blockbusters

The speaker predicts that by 2027, we could see the first feature-length Hollywood blockbuster film created entirely by AI, marking a significant milestone in the industry's use of AI. They also anticipate broader impacts of AI, including potential job displacement and political issues related to AI safety and economic policies like universal basic income. The geopolitical landscape is also expected to shift, with countries accelerating their development of AI technologies.

20:05

🚀 The Convergence of Technologies in 2029: A New Renaissance

The speaker foresees 2029 as a pivotal year when data centers, commercial nuclear fusion reactors, quantum computing, and other technologies will become mainstream, leading to a new renaissance. They predict significant advancements in material science, genetic engineering, and medical breakthroughs, contributing to a compounding effect of technological progress. This period is expected to bring about a new level of optimism and a shift in the geopolitical and economic landscape.

25:06

🌐 The Socioeconomic Shifts and the Dawn of the Intelligence Age

The speaker anticipates that by 2030, we will have entered a new era characterized by the widespread adoption of AI, which they refer to as the 'Intelligence Age'. They predict that this period will see the establishment of new economic paradigms, such as post-labor economics, and the potential realization of longevity escape velocity. The speaker also expresses hope for a new approach to finding meaning in life and reshaping the geopolitical conversation, envisioning a future of abundance and optimism.

🕊️ Hopes for a Peaceful Transition to a Technologically Advanced Future

In the final paragraph, the speaker reflects on the potential challenges and opportunities ahead, emphasizing the importance of avoiding conflict and focusing on healing the planet. They express hope for a peaceful transition to a future where advanced technologies like nuclear fusion and AGI contribute to a better world. The speaker also acknowledges the long-term nature of geopolitical healing and the need for new paradigms to address the shifts brought about by rapid technological advancements.

Keywords

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. In the video's theme, AI is central to the discussion of technological advancement and its impact on society. The script mentions AI's potential and current limitations, indicating a period of 'disillusionment' due to unmet expectations, and also references AI models like GPT and Claude, which are expected to evolve significantly by 2030.

💡Disillusionment

Disillusionment in the context of the video refers to a period of disappointment or the loss of confidence in the progress of AI. The script predicts a 'down term' in AI development where expectations for rapid advancements may not be met, leading to a sense of disillusionment among the public and industry insiders alike.

💡Industry Insiders

Industry insiders are individuals who have deep knowledge and experience in a particular field or industry. The script mentions that the speaker has been in conversation with such insiders from around the world to gain a more accurate perspective on the future of AI, indicating the importance of expert opinion in predicting industry trends.

💡General Purpose Models

General purpose models in AI are versatile and can be applied across various domains and tasks without needing significant modifications. The script discusses the anticipation of such models becoming 'Enterprise ready' by 2026, suggesting that these models will be capable of handling a wide range of applications, making them valuable for businesses.

💡Enterprise Adoption

Enterprise adoption refers to the process by which large corporations begin to implement and integrate new technologies into their operations. The video script predicts that by 2026, AI models will be considered ready for enterprise adoption, indicating a significant milestone in the mainstream integration of AI into various industries.

💡Benchmarks

In the context of AI, benchmarks are standardized tests or metrics used to evaluate the performance of AI models. The script critiques current benchmarks as not being particularly useful for measuring true intelligence, and predicts that as AI models improve, existing benchmarks will become obsolete, necessitating the development of new ones.

💡Cost-Effectiveness

Cost-effectiveness pertains to the balance between the cost of a product or service and the benefits it provides. The script suggests that as AI models become more refined, they will also become more cost-effective, which could lead to increased adoption in various sectors, including small and medium businesses.

💡Robotics

Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, and use of robots. The video script highlights robotics as a significant area of development, predicting that advancements in this field will bring about a 'step change' in AI and robotics, with commercial and domestic robots becoming more prevalent.

💡Post-Labor Economics

Post-labor economics refers to a theoretical economic system where the need for human labor is significantly reduced due to automation and technological advancements. The script anticipates a shift towards this system as AI and robotics advance, necessitating a rethinking of traditional economic models and social structures.

💡Longevity Escape Velocity

Longevity escape velocity is a concept that suggests a point in time when advancements in medical technology and healthcare will allow life expectancy to increase at a rate that outpaces the aging process. The script mentions this concept in relation to the potential impacts of AI and other technologies like quantum computing by 2030.

💡Intelligence Age

The Intelligence Age is a term used in the script to describe a future era characterized by the dominance of AI and intelligent systems in all aspects of life. It is presented as a successor to the Information Age and is expected to bring about significant changes in society, economy, and technology by 2030.

Highlights

Expectations of a down term and a period of disillusionment with artificial intelligence are discussed.

The speaker remains optimistic about AI despite acknowledging a disappointing period ahead.

Predictions for AI milestones from now until 2030 are based on insider industry conversations.

GPT 5 and Claude 4 are expected to be released in late 2024 or early 2025.

AI advancements are slowing down due to increasing costs, despite faster model release cadence.

Incremental changes in AI models are significant, especially in context windows and reasoning abilities.

Multimodality and AI demonstrations by tech giants are critiqued for overpromising and underdelivering.

The release of commercial and domestic robots is anticipated to be a significant development in AI.

Disney's advanced robotics program is highlighted for its potential beyond entertainment.

2025 is predicted as the year of disillusionment, with AI models not reaching AGI status.

AI models are expected to reach the 95th percentile across benchmarks by 2025.

The need for new benchmarks to measure true intelligence beyond current testing methods is emphasized.

Enterprise deployment of AI is expected to increase in 2025, with SMBs leading the charge.

Job displacement due to AI advancements is predicted to become more noticeable in 2025.

2026 is posited as the year when AI models will be considered enterprise-ready and general purpose.

AGI is anticipated in 2027, with varying confidence intervals discussed.

The geopolitical implications of AI advancements, particularly regarding China, are explored.

Potential societal and economic shifts due to AGI and robotics are predicted for 2028.

2029 is envisioned as the beginning of a new Renaissance marked by technological convergence.

The transition to a new economic paradigm, post-labor economics, is anticipated by 2030.

Longevity escape velocity and its societal impacts are predicted to be significant by 2030.

The speaker's hope for a new era of abundance and its potential to reshape geopolitics is expressed.

Transcripts

so it's been a little while since I've

done one of these prediction videos

where I just kind of lay everything out

and I realize that there's probably been

a little bit of perceived inconsistency

in my position lately so I wanted to

take a moment to clear all that up and

so what I mean is that you know like yes

I am expecting a down term uh we're

entering into the truff of

disillusionment and I do think that

we're in for a little bit of a

disappointing uh period with artificial

intelligence however I still remain

pretty optimistic so let's just dive in

and let's go over the next few years

from now until 2030 kind of some of the

Milestones that I expect to see and what

I want to tell you before we dive in is

that this is not just speculation on my

part I have been talking to Industry

insiders uh from around the world and uh

from looking at AI from various

perspectives um and conversations behind

the scenes for the last couple weeks so

I'm a little bit more oriented than I

used to be so hopefully this uh will

prove to be a little bit more accurate

than some of my predictions in the past

so without further Ado let's Dive Right

In so first how are we going to uh close

out 2024 now obviously in the past I was

predicting AGI by the end of this year

and um but you know with other people

commenting uh you know such as Leopold

Ashen Runner um it looks like 2027 is

kind of when people are settling on AGI

then the confidence intervals you know

are give and take a little bit we'll get

into that in just a minute but let's

focus on the rest of this year so GPT 5

is expected to drop uh this year as

early as fall but likely December or

early 2025 Claud 4 is um also expected

around that time um now what anthropic

is doing right now is they're working on

the rest of the 3.5 family but the

Cadence is accelerating with releasing

these Foundation models um and while I

have said that AI is slowing down what

I'm mostly looking at is the cost uh

increasing so basically the uh the break

throughs that we that we're hoping to

see are going to be happening slower

even if the Cadence of model releases is

a little bit faster cuz I was looking at

the timelines and it was I think it was

from from gpt3 to GPT 4 was a full three

years and so GPT 4 to GPT 5 looks like

it might be two two and a halfish years

so the overall Cadence is more or less

keeping up to Pace but the but there are

more or less just incremental changes

and so yes incremental changes can do a

lot particularly the incremental changes

we've seen on context Windows of

reasoning abilities and those sorts of

things we're also going to see a lot

more M multimodality obviously um some

of the demos that have been presented by

Google and Microsoft and open AI um the

demos were one thing some of them were

faked um and in many cases they've over

promised and underd delivered um but

that's kind of the news that yall are

all familiar with one thing that I think

that we're that is probably going to be

like the last you know big shocking

thing that we see this year is is the

release of more commercial and

potentially domestic robots um if you

haven't been keeping up with the news

there are so many companies in China

America and and other places that are

working diligently on humanoid robots

for various purposes Disney

interestingly has some of the most

advanced robotics programs but they're

just using it for like Dunt doubles and

animatronics and I'm like you guys have

no idea what you're sitting on you have

the most lifelike robots and you're

using it for entertainment what are you

doing anyways um I'll get off my Soap

Box about Disney so uh I think that I

think that you know cuz if you've seen

like the Boston Dynamics videos and you

and everything else coming out about

humanoid robots I think that this is

going to be the next step shift um The

Next Step change in the AI and robotic

space because again models we're we're

getting to the point of diminishing

returns with the current paradig of

models meaning that getting those next

breakthroughs is going to be

exponentially more expensive but at the

same time once you get to a certain

threshold it doesn't really matter cuz

like okay you can have like once you get

models that are PhD smart what are you

going to go after that like 10x PhD okay

sure like yes we can debate intelligence

till the cows come home um but my point

here is that 2024 we're not going to

have a whole lot more exciting news I

think robotics is going to be the next

most exciting thing um Sora and video

generators are going to be really

interesting um but I suspect that we're

going to find that getting getting to

like super crisp like Hollywood ready 4K

and 8K video is going to be a little bit

harder just in the same way that you

know language models have mastered

language but getting it to Shakespeare

we're not there yet now 2025 I think is

going to be the year of the

disillusionment where a lot of people

myself included are going to be kind of

disappointed like okay GPT 5 hit and

it's definitely smarter it's definitely

PhD level in some respects but it's not

quite going to be AGI same thing with

Claude 4 um I think it's pretty safe to

assume that GPT 5 and CL for will be out

by 2025 or probably early 2025 now one

thing that I will say is that um I

expect these models to get to like the

95th percentile across multiple

benchmarks um and you might say like

okay that sounds pretty good and in the

old Paradigm of machine learning once

you get to the 95th percentile um that's

basically considered a solved problem in

machine learning and so right now

depending on which Benchmark you're

looking at they you know anywhere from

the 40th percentile to the 85th

percentile and those last few percentage

points usually are much much harder to

to solve at least until you get an

algorithmic breakthrough and this has

happened many many times in the AI space

um obviously before Transformers um but

you know I remember listening to podcast

about um you know uh like uh decision

trees and those sorts of things and XG

boost um then when those new techniques

were introduced uh you know many many

problems went from 70th percentile to

95th percentile and then those

competitions were no longer interesting

after that so what I mean like when like

what are the implications when we get

you know to the 95th percentile on all

the benchmarks today I think we're going

to realize that a lot of the benchmarks

to that exist today are not particularly

useful or helpful which is why I've been

kind of critical of them um is because

it's like okay it's good at taking a

test but real intelligence is about

longtime Horizons chaotic environments

um and adaptation and there's not really

testing that right now so like

when people ask me like what's a good

Benchmark for intelligence I'm like

there are none right now there are

literally no good benchmarks out there

that I have been impressed by that

really measure intelligence yes some of

them are really interesting um and and

you know definitely are measuring some

aspects of intelligence such as

reasoning in an abstract state but you

know you can have the best person who's

you know great at math great at you know

reasoning and Abstract uh Concepts who

still has no Street smarts or real world

elligence or the ability to make things

happen in the real world um so first

contact with the real world is going to

be very messy for these AI models but

what I will say is that as these

benchmarks uh get met and also as we get

more distilled models more uh refined

models um that they're going to be much

more cost- effective because it's like

okay if you have a model that is

basically free to run and it's as good

as you know someone with two or three

years of experience that's going to

start turning some heads and start

replacing some jobs so I do suspect that

2025 we're going to see a lot more

Enterprise deployment what I'm hearing

out there right now is that most people

deploying AI are small and medium

businesses because they can pivot faster

and I am hearing that Enterprise

corporations are looking at this stuff

but none of the leadership are convinced

that it is Enterprise ready and we'll

talk about that in just a second um

however because the small and medium

businesses are going to are going to

start adopting more AI tools either tool

you know like co-pilot provided by

Microsoft and GitHub or tools built by

startups you're going to see a surge in

people basically either in the startup

space building these new tools or at

some of these larger companies um

building AI products for companies and

then of course you're going to have some

internal hiring for uh uh for internal

talent to deploy and utilize AI um but I

think that 2025 is still going to be a

relatively tepid year at least at the

Enterprise scale

um but smbs usually and SB if you're not

familiar with small and medium

businesses so those are those are like

the mom and pop shops up to like you

know 400 employees or so a th000

employees I'm not really sure where the

uh the the transition point from SMB to

Enterprise is today and of course

there's many intermediary steps anyways

getting lost in the weeds my point is is

that smaller companies can pivot faster

so we're probably going to see more

hiring in the startup space um and the

SMB space where AI is concerned and then

of course there's also going to be um a

lot of internal hiring at the uh at like

the Microsoft and Google and those sorts

of things um but those companies tend to

be a little bit more insular um meaning

like if you're in the club you're in the

club and they don't really like

Outsiders um they're very clickish like

that but at the same time I think that

we're going to start seeing a little bit

more jobs dislocation in 2025 um as the

uh capabilities of these models expand

but again there's a lot of skepticism um

in the SE Suite of Enterprises and I

don't just mean Tech Enterprises I mean

you know Finance law like across the

board manufacturing a lot of them are

watching it and they're like oh yeah

that's interesting we'll check on it in

a couple years so that's that's why it's

like you know sorry to throw a bucket of

cold water on it but even if we get AGI

tomorrow it's going to take a few years

to get fully um integrated into um into

the world and into the economy so that

we can all you know live post- labor

economic you know utopian Lifestyles um

but I do suspect that uh 2025 will be

the year that a lot of our benchmarks um

are broken and then we'll have to have

an entirely new set of benchmarks So

based on all of these Trends 2026 is the

year that I think that um that these

models are going to be considered

Enterprise ready um so there we're going

to be on the other side of the trough of

disillusionment um particularly with uh

you know Claude six or you know uh sorry

Claude 5 or GPT 6 or 5.5 or whatever the

models are I think that that was two

more Generations from now now are going

to be when when all of the Enterprises

on Fortune 500 all around the world um

are going to be saying this is

Enterprise ready we are ready to go and

these are going to be what are what are

going to be considered the first true

general purpose models and so what I

mean by general purpose models is

basically kind of what Nvidia is working

on which is like any like X tox or any

to any modality um because then you just

have a model that is a it is a ready to

go off-the-shelf Droid brain you can put

the same model in a car a CH y a digital

agent those sorts of things and that's

really what we're aiming for is those

general purpose models and I don't mean

just you know just text just a few tools

just audio video I mean like anything

geospatial data sensory data embodiment

data everything to everything is what

I'm really looking for for them to be

truly Enterprise ready and general

purpose and by then people might be

saying yeah this basically qualifies is

Agi honestly I wouldn't be surprised if

we call those early AGI and then what

we're talking about for AGI in 2027 2028

actually constitutes ASI because like

think of it this way if you have a

general purpose model that you can put

in a robot and that robot can perform at

the level of like basically any person

with 5 years of experience I think that

would probably constitute AGI but then

if you have you know two more

Generations later you have a model that

you can do anything with and it's

basically like every PhD on the planet I

would consider that super intelligence

so you know your mileage may vary

depending on definition but really from

a from a commercial economic standpoint

and and downstream from that from a uh

from the impact that you will feel

Enterprise ready general purpose models

is really where it's going to be at and

this is where um people are really going

to start taking notice um around the

world um now that's also two years down

the road from now so that'll be midterm

elections time so I wouldn't be

surprised if if AI starts being talked

about more in politics than it is

already being talked about also by that

time I wouldn't be surprised like if you

know you many of us have domestic uh

robots helping with cooking and cleaning

by that point um they're probably going

to be pretty expensive I know like the

first gen are going to be like $80,000

which it's like you could buy a Mercedes

for that uh a nice Mercedes um or a nice

truck like a really nice truck um but

there's also going to be so much

competition because the me the the the

electromechanical aspect of these robots

not particularly expensive and once you

get to economies of scale the chassis is

going to be $2,000 to maybe $5,000 for a

good one um but then it's the software

that you put in it it's the brain and

the integration and and the testing to

make it useful so I wouldn't be

surprised if 2026 is probably the year

that like I buy my first domestic

assistant robot maybe before then I

don't know I know that there are some

other YouTubers out there that have

bought like the the very first ones and

they you know it's like cool you test it

but it's not really useful it's not

really a good product Market fit yet the

2027 is expected to be the year of AGI

so and again confidence uh intervals

vary quite a bit so you know some people

say like 2026 5% 2027 50 to 90% 2028 to

2029 it's like seems like a foregone

conclusion at least for some industry

insiders that we will have AGI by then

but again like I said it depends on your

definition um I wouldn't be surprised if

2027 2028 is when those general purpose

Enterprise models are all PhD level now

even when you have that it's still going

to take time because there is so much

inertia for for adoption um like

governments will be paying attention

militaries will be paying attention all

corporations will be paying attention um

and what I want to point out here is

that once that excitement builds back up

investors will be pushing for Rapid AI

adoption meaning that all CEOs are

basically going to be incentivized to go

as fast as possible which is why I

always say that acceleration is kind of

the default policy the same thing is

true on the Geo political stage um

America is going as fast as possible uh

China is going as fast as possible

everyone is going as fast as possible to

develop Ai and once you get to the point

where AI is actually modifying the

landscape the competitive landscape

whether it's free market economics or

military landscape everyone is going to

be locked into that arms race now uh

once you get to this point um there's

like some of the some of the things that

are going to slow down is going to be

regulatory constraints um internal

adoption policies safety res search um

but you're also going to see a lot of

creative creative disruption I would not

be surprised if 2026 or maybe even 2027

is when we see the first like

featurelength Hollywood Blockbuster film

created entirely by AI we've got a

little bit of time before you know like

we're already seeing people stitching

together you know like commercials and

stuff with AI but that's a human doing

it and editing it what I mean is like

end to end production you push a button

and you get a you know you get a outp a

4K Hollywood grade you know movie on the

other side you know a couple hours or a

couple days later however long it takes

um it'll be a little while before models

are that good where they can produce

something that is not just you know some

postmodern art housee garbage um that

doesn't really make any sense because we

can do that now with AI but what I mean

is something that is going to like make

a billion dollars at the box office um

2027 I'm not going to put money on that

but like I wouldn't be surprised if the

first billion dollar uh box office

Blockbuster happens in 2027 or

thereabouts and that will kind of

coincide with you know AGI or whatever

um and we're going to see a lot more

again we're going to see broader impacts

we might start to see some layoffs but

really I think that it's going to be a

hot button political issue for the

following year the next election cycle

So speaking of the election cycle I

think that 2028 is going to be a really

spicy year um there's a lot that's going

to be happening uh around that time so

having watch watch a lot of uh military

insiders um interviews with generals

Admirals and other people from the

intelligence community and just

following closely on kind of the longer

term uh trends that are happening in

geopolitics I think that 2028 is

basically going to be a hey we're

gearing up for a new arms race we're

gearing up for a new conflict with China

um at the same time we're going to start

to see those Mass layoffs because again

once you get AGI you still need to you

still need to invest in it you still

need to deploy you still need to

integrate into it so I think that we're

going to be seeing like kind of having

this onew punch of a new cold war or

maybe even a hot War we'll see but new

geopolitical uh uh Conflict at the same

time that we're going to start seeing

Mass layoffs due to uh the integration

of AGI and Robotics um and so it's going

to be a very very contentious uh

election cycle and I wouldn't be

surprised if we're talking about AI

safety job protection Universal basic

income and a whole bunch of other stuff

and so it's basically going to be a

fever pitch crisis year and I'm not

basing that just off of my own stuff in

fact before I was reading you know stuff

like um the fourth turning and Ray Doo's

work and talking to a few other people

you know it's like well the it seems

like everything is going to be coming to

a head sooner rather than later and I

think that 2028 might be kind of the

inflection point another thing is that

there's a lot of commentators that

suspect that conflict with China is

going to happen between sometime between

2026 and 2032 and that election year you

know the the Advent of AGI robotics you

know Quantum Computing and fusion um

kind of on the horizon that really could

be the inflection point and one other

thing is that the clock is ticking for

China because they're facing demographic

collapse um basically the the their

their demographic pyramid is inverted

right now because they're having so few

births and it actually looks like if you

watch the news coming out of China very

closely it looks like they might might

have been lying about their population

numbers for several years so China's

population might already be shrinking in

the order of tens of millions to even

prot potentially hundreds of millions

per year again it depends on who you

listen to but it seems like a foregone

conclusion that China's population is

shrinking and that basically means that

the clock is ticking for them any big

moves that they want to do they need to

do sooner rather than later while they

still have the manpower to do it um

which means that that could move up any

timeline for any potential conflict with

China and it doesn't necessarily have to

escalate to a hot conflict and again all

that's going to be going on on the

geopolitical stage and uh and in the

meantime we're going to be having

domestic issues potentially with layoffs

and you know the economy is going to be

on fire and yet wages are going to be

stagnating total employment might be

going down by then unemployment might be

going up um and so there's going to be a

lot of anger um around this time I'm not

going to say that it's going to be like

you know the Next Great Depression or

anything like that because GE political

conflict has a tendency to um do good

things for jobs in the economy which you

know I wish that weren't true but you

know the military in Jal complex exists

you know don't shoot me I'm just the

messenger now 2029 I think is going to

be um really when most people re like

kind of his history will will record

2023 is the year that it started 2024

the year that it accelerated but I think

that 2029 is going to be the year that

everyone is like yes this is the

beginning of the New Renaissance because

this is when all the gigantic new data

centers are going to come online this is

when um the commercial nuclear fusion

reactors are expected to see first light

this is when Quantum Computing is going

to become mainstream and then all the

downstream effects of that namely

Material Science and genetic engineering

will basically you'll start to see that

flywheel accelerate and you'll start to

see real true compounding returns um

from all of these Technologies mixing

together and you know it might be a

foregone conclusion by then that like we

have ASI or whatever um robots are going

to be much more commonplace we're going

to really start to see a major shift in

medical breakthroughs longevity escape

velocity is something that people are

going to be talking about um you're

going to see more cybernetics those

sorts of things but this is basically

like the year that it all begins or the

year that it really changes and from a

from an individual perspective I suspect

that this is when we're going to start

to see a new level of optimism um kind

of akin to the post-war boom of the

1950s hopefully it doesn't it's not

delayed like cuz a con a hot conflict

with China could be devastating to not

just the two Nations but to the whole

world so I hope that it doesn't escalate

to a hot conflict and it's entirely

possible that it won't um the way that

America and China are communicating

makes me think that it's just going to

be another cold war um which okay that's

not the best thing in the world um but

that's certainly far preferable to a hot

conflict um but then at the same time

all of those you know like basic think

of the optimism of the 60s and 70s

during the space age right we're going

to have that level of optimism again and

again it's not just me predicting that

uh Ray doio fourth uh the fourth turning

a lot of these theories think that we're

that we're at or near an inflection

point and that after the inflection

point it's going to be much much better

in the future now obviously I'm not one

to live in the future but you know we

all need something to hope for and we

need some optimism um so I think 2029 is

is really kind of targeting that when uh

Enterprise level adoption is going to be

accelerating geopolitics is going to be

changing and then that will lead into

2030 which is kind of the year that it's

like okay this is going to be the new

normal so in 2030 I suspect we will have

coined a new term we might call it the

intelligence age because you know I was

just referring to like the Space Age so

you know the 60s 7s um I guess early in

the or late late in the 50s 60s and 70s

that was like the space age and then the

80s and 90s that was you know the

Information Age um and now we've had the

Grim Dark Age of the 2000s and 2010s and

early 2020s I think that we're going to

be entering into entering fully into the

new paradigm of the intelligence age or

the AI age um by 2030 this is where

we're going to be basically kind of

settling into the new normal of the

fourth Industrial Revolution um which is

why I frequently kind of compare 2030 to

like 2050 or 1950 because these Cycles

generally come in about 60 to 80 year

Cycles sometimes a little bit more

sometimes a little bit less so we are

basically overdue or almost overdue for

a new like New Renaissance or new um

Golden Era and so I'm hoping that by

2030 we are entering into that new

golden era and I've been I've been

pretty consistent on this messaging for

a while that the next 5 years are going

to be some of the hardest most painful

years because old paradigms are going to

stop working and we're going to start to

need new paradigms namely post labor

economics so when the first time that

bloom ber and Forbes and all those other

ones um talk about post- labor economics

I will be super excited um but it seems

basically inevitable uh that the that

economics as we understand it today will

just not work I do think that money is

going to stick around and I think

capitalism is going to stick around but

I think that neoliberalism is on its

last legs um and that's going to go the

way of the dinosaurs anyways that's

personal speculation um longevity escape

velocity Ray Kurtz predicts that

longevity escape velocity will come by

2030 and as many of you in the audience

say don't ever bet against Ray kurts now

I will say having read some of his older

books some of his predictions were dead

wrong but some of his predictions were

were pretty much spoton um so he his his

batting average is like you know 6.7 um

which is certainly good given the time

Horizons that he's been working on um

but this is one where I I tend to agree

that you know longevity escape velocity

all those compounding returns from AI

Quantum Computing and all the downstream

effects of that I I think that we could

achieve longevity scape velocity by 2030

um the socioeconomic shifts I think that

we'll we'll probably have something like

Ubi by then um but we'll also realize

that Ubi alone is not enough we'll need

an entirely new approach to um finding

meaning uh giving people stuff to do

that sort of thing um I also hope that

this new era of abundance will reshape

the geopolitical conversation but it

will also be a little bit early and what

I mean by early is that even if we all

have AGI and Hyper abundance it's going

to take several Generations if not

longer I mean it could take several

centuries to really kind of heal the

planet and have everyone come together

um because there's just so much distrust

and so much inertia so much geopolitical

inertia out there um I certainly hope

that we don't have any more Wars once we

have nuclear fusion in AGI because you

know the weapons that that are capable

of being produced then who was it I I

think someone said was it James Cameron

I don't remember someone said I don't

know what weapons World War III will be

fought with but World War I will be

fought with sticks and stones that's

really kind of the Paradigm that we're

looking at if I hope that we don't have

a World War III and if we don't then I

think we're going to be um all all I'm

not going to say happily ever after

because we're humans we're good at

making a mess of things but I do think

that um I do think that the hardest

point is in the uh years just ahead and

then once we get past that I think it'll

be a little bit easier for a while so

this is these are how I actually feel

like things are going to progress over

the next 6 to seven years let me know

what you think in the comments um yeah

no this is I I hope that this kind of

gets everyone on the same page again

because yes timelines are a little bit

longer than I'd hoped but I think that

also like what's that rule where people

say it's like people always overestimate

the short-term impact but underestimate

the long-term impact I'm hoping that my

predictions are getting a little bit

more grounded in reality and a little

bit more accurate to how things are

actually going to play out so thanks for

watching cheers have a good one