700% Increase in SILVER Demand! Your Gold & Silver is About to Become "Priceless" - Rafi Farber

Summary

This video script discusses impending economic turmoil, with the U.S. President's health and European political unrest causing market uncertainty. It highlights the Japanese Yen's decline, potential war implications, and the U.S. Midwest's industrial contraction as indicated by the Chicago PMI. The housing market's slump and sustained high silver premiums in Shanghai suggest a shift in the silver market. The script also addresses the intertwined fates of the Yen and Japanese bond market, predicting a challenging financial landscape in the coming months.

Takeaways

• 😨 Expect significant turmoil and substantial disruption over the next 4 months due to political and economic instability.
• 👴 The President of the United States is reportedly dealing with Dementia, adding to the uncertainty.
• 🏛 Political chaos in Europe is causing concern and is reflected in the currency markets.
• 📉 The Japanese Yen is continuously dropping, with the Bank of Japan yet to respond effectively.
• 🌐 Gold and silver are poised to respond dramatically to the current global turmoil.
• 🏦 Bank Reserves are dropping, and repo volume is increasing, indicating potential financial instability.
• 📊 The Chicago PMI indicates a significant economic contraction in the central United States, with the longest contraction period in its history.
• 🏠 Pending home sales have hit an all-time low, suggesting a struggling housing market.
• 📈 Shanghai silver premiums have remained above 10% for an unprecedented period, indicating strong demand or supply issues.
• 🗾 The Japanese Yen's weakness is directly correlated with the weakness of the Japanese bond market.
• 📊 The percentage of Bank Reserves taken up by repos has reached 60%, nearing the levels that preceded the 2019 financial crisis.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the video update?

The main theme of the video update is the significant turmoil expected over the next four months, with substantial disruption due to political chaos and economic challenges.

What health condition is the President of the United States reportedly dealing with?

The President of the United States is reportedly dealing with Dementia.

How is the political chaos in Europe affecting the currency markets?

The political chaos in Europe is unsettling the continent and is reflected in the currency markets, with gold and silver expected to respond dramatically.

What is happening with the Japanese Yen in relation to the Bank of Japan's response?

The Japanese Yen keeps dropping, and the Bank of Japan has yet to respond effectively to this situation.

What does the speaker mean by 'apocalypse happened at about 87%'?

The speaker is referring to the point at which 87% of Bank Reserves were taken up by repurchase agreements (repos), which led to a major financial crisis.

What is the significance of the Chicago PMI being below 50 for an extended period?

A Chicago PMI below 50 indicates economic contraction. Being below this threshold for an extended period signifies a prolonged economic downturn in the central United States.

What is the current situation with pending home sales according to the video?

Pending home sales have reached an all-time low, indicating a significant slowdown in the housing market and potential banking trouble in the future.

Why are Shanghai silver premiums remaining above 10% for an extended period?

The sustained high premiums suggest a significant change in the silver market, possibly due to increased Chinese demand for silver.

What is the relationship between the Japanese Yen and the Japanese bond market as discussed in the video?

The video suggests that the weaker the bond market, the weaker the Yen becomes, as the Bank of Japan owns a significant portion of the bonds, and the health of the currency is tied to the bond market's performance.

What does the video suggest about the potential impact of the Bank of Japan hiking rates?

The video suggests that if the Bank of Japan hikes rates to address the currency crisis, it could lead to a bond market crash, further weakening the Yen due to the collapse in bond value.

How does the video connect the increase in Japanese consumer prices to the potential actions of the Bank of Japan?

The video indicates that the rise in consumer prices could force the Bank of Japan to hike rates on its bonds, which would have a knock-on effect of crashing the bond market and weakening the Yen.

Outlines

00:00

🚨 Global Turmoil and Economic Challenges

The video script discusses the onset of significant global turmoil expected over the next four months, with substantial disruptions anticipated. It highlights the health concerns of the US President, political chaos in Europe, and currency market instability. The script emphasizes the dramatic response of gold and silver, the continuous drop of the Japanese Yen, and the potential for war. It also points out the economic contraction in the Midwest of the United States, as indicated by the Chicago PMI, and the record low pending home sales, suggesting a housing market crash. The speaker warns viewers to stay informed and prepared for the uncertain times ahead.

05:00

📊 Unprecedented Silver Market Dynamics and Currency Performance

This paragraph delves into the sustained high premiums of Shanghai silver over New York, suggesting a significant change in the silver market driven by Chinese demand. It also addresses the poor performance of the Japanese Yen compared to other currencies and corrects a misconception about the relationship between currency and bond market crises. The speaker explains that a bond market crisis leads to a currency crisis, not the other way around, as the Bank of Japan's bond holdings directly impact the value of the Yen. The technical analysis of the Yen's value suggests an imminent drop with little support, potentially leading to a bond market crash.

10:03

📈 Inflationary Pressures and the Impact on Japanese Economy

The final paragraph focuses on the rising consumer prices in Japan, which are at their second-highest reading post-CO era, indicating significant inflationary pressures. This is expected to force the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which could lead to a bond market crash and further weaken the Yen. The speaker also discusses the high percentage of bank reserves taken up by repos, which is a warning sign of potential financial instability. The paragraph concludes with a call to action for viewers to engage with the content, subscribe for updates, and prepare for the challenging economic times ahead.

Keywords

💡Dementia

Dementia refers to a group of symptoms indicating a decline in cognitive ability severe enough to interfere with daily life. In the context of the video, it is mentioned that the President of the United States is dealing with dementia, suggesting a significant impact on political stability and decision-making processes. This is a key concern as it could potentially lead to political chaos and affect international relations and policies.

💡Political Chaos

Political chaos denotes a state of disorder and confusion in the political sphere. The script mentions political chaos in Europe, which is a central theme of the video as it suggests instability that could affect the global economy and financial markets, leading to uncertainty and potential disruptions.

💡Currency Markets

Currency markets are where currencies are traded against each other, and they are a critical part of the global financial system. The script discusses the turmoil in currency markets, indicating that the economic and political instability is causing significant fluctuations in the value of different currencies, such as the Japanese Yen.

💡Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan, responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy. The script implies that the Bank of Japan has yet to respond effectively to the dropping Yen, which is a critical issue as it can affect the country's economy and international trade.

💡Repo

A repo, short for repurchase agreement, is a financial transaction where one party sells securities to another and agrees to repurchase them at a later date, typically the next day. The script mentions that repo volume is increasing and bank reserves are dropping, indicating potential liquidity issues in the banking system, which could foreshadow financial instability.

💡Chicago PMI

The Chicago PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is an economic indicator that measures the economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago area. The video script highlights a significant drop in the Chicago PMI, suggesting a contraction in the industrial economy of the Midwest, which is a concerning sign for the overall economic health of the United States.

💡Recession

A recession is a period of negative economic growth that lasts for at least two consecutive quarters of a fiscal year. The script discusses the possibility of an official recession, indicating that economic indicators are showing signs of a downturn, which could have widespread implications for businesses and consumers.

💡Housing Market

The housing market refers to the sector of the economy that is involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of residential dwellings. The script mentions that pending home sales are at an all-time low, suggesting a slowdown in the housing market, which could impact the economy and potentially lead to a decrease in property values.

💡Shanghai Silver Premiums

Shanghai silver premiums refer to the additional cost over the base price of silver when buying in Shanghai. The script notes that these premiums have remained above 10% for an unprecedented period, indicating strong demand for silver in China, which could be a sign of investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainty.

💡Yen

The yen is the official currency of Japan. The video script discusses the weakening yen, which has implications for Japan's international trade and the value of its exports. The yen's decline is tied to the health of the Japanese bond market, as the Bank of Japan's large holdings in bonds affect the currency's strength.

💡Bank Reserves

Bank reserves are the funds that banks are required to hold and cannot lend out, ensuring they have enough liquidity to meet their obligations. The script indicates that bank reserves have hit a new low, with a significant portion being taken up by repos, which could signal potential financial stress within the banking system.

Highlights

Expect substantial disruption over the next 4 months due to turmoil.

The President of the United States is dealing with Dementia.

Political chaos in Europe is affecting the continent's stability.

Currency markets are reflecting the turmoil with gold and silver ready to respond dramatically.

The Japanese Yen is dropping with the Bank of Japan yet to respond effectively.

Bank Reserves are dropping and repo volume is increasing, nearing a potential financial crisis.

Shanghai silver premiums remain above 10% for the longest period ever recorded.

The Chicago PMI indicates a significant economic contraction in the Central United States.

The longest contraction in the history of the Chicago PMI index is currently ongoing.

Pending home sales are at an all-time low, indicating a struggling housing market.

Low pending home sales are causing banks to hold onto mortgages, potentially leading to banking trouble.

Sustained high silver premiums in Shanghai suggest a significant change in the silver market.

The Yen's performance in 2024 is worse than countries in hyperinflation.

The Bank of Japan's bond market and currency crisis are intertwined, affecting the Yen's value.

Japanese consumer prices are rising, nearing record territory, which may force interest rate hikes.

A high percentage of Bank Reserves taken by repos could indicate an impending financial crisis.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for securing your financial future amidst the chaos.

Transcripts

the question isn't will they the

question is when they do how long will

it last Welcome to our important update

as we Face a period of significant

turmoil over the next 4 months expect

substantial disruption it is now clear

that the president of the United States

is dealing with Dementia and political

chaos in Europe is unsettling the

continent this turmoil is reflected in

the currency markets with gold and

silver ready to respond dramatically the

Japanese Yen keeps dropping and the bank

of Jaan has yet to respond effectively

stay tuned to learn how you can navigate

these uncertain times so let's start

watching the video now things are

starting to break down in the currency

markets we're getting closer to War what

kind of War exactly nobody knows but

we're definitely getting closer to war

and uh looks like uh Biden isn't doing

too well after the amazing presidential

debate and uh who knows if he's going to

be replaced or

who is he going to be replaced with all

kinds of political upheavals in Europe

and meanwhile the medals are calm but

Bank Reserves are dropping repo volume

is increasing we have hit 60% of Bank

Reserves taken up by repos remember the

apocalypse happened at about

87% uh so we could be weeks probably

months away from that point being hit

Bank Reserves hit a new low for the year

and Shanghai silver premiums remain

above 10% for the longest period ever

recorded which isn't that long of a

period but it's still the longest period

ever recorded in a word the world is not

calming down it is getting more frenetic

by the way and that is the Chicago PMI

purchasing managers index uh this is a

proxy for economic growth in the Chicago

area in Central North America Central

United States right Central United

States

uh we have here the Chicago PMI going

back to

1968 and the red line is where I put the

current read of what is it 35 or

something like that or something really

anything below 50 is contraction so two

things you can notice about this chart

is that we've been below 50 for the most

amount of months in a row excluding this

one month I think that was like a few

months ago maybe in April or May or

something but excluding this I think

we're 21 months in a row in contraction

and that is the longest contraction ever

uh in the history of this index here is

the lockdowns you had a reading of what

was it 29 I can't really tell the

numbers here but the only times when we

have lower than we are now meaning more

in contraction than we are now was

during the lockdowns when uh moving

around was illegal and doing anything

was illegal because uh we were saving

the planet and thank god it worked and

there were no negative side effects to

lockdowns and everything was perfect uh

and okay we also have the 2008 great

financial crisis we we had lower reads

than we have now for about four or five

months in that period um and time before

that was

1981

1982 and that double dip recession

around when gold was at going to record

highs and silver hit 50 for the first

time so this is a pretty extraordinary

number it means that the economy the

industrial econom is really crashing in

uh the central region of the United

States or Midwest is what they call it

whatever Chicago is technically called

who cares and uh it's clear signs that

the next and final official recession is

gaining steam pending home sales why am

I going to this because we're at a new

all-time low in pending home sales

pending home sales alltime low means

banks are stuck with mortgages are the

point I want to make here so circled

here you have the housing crash of 2008

um that is when pending home sales hit a

low of about 80,000 I think that number

is the last one was 70 which is actually

for the first time since the lockdown is

lower than the lockdown low in 2020 of

whatever that number was we're lower now

uh so we're building fewer houses now

than we were when it was illegal to do

anything uh that tells you something

about the housing market nobody's

selling homes in a pending manner uh

what what does that tell you about

prices well why aren't prices falling if

pending home sales are as low as they

ever been um because people have these

low rate mortgages that they locked in

at low interest rates and they don't

want to get rid of them because the

interest rates are going up and if they

were to buy a new house they would have

to refinance the higher interest rates

so they're just holding on to the

interest rates and who is uh getting

hurt because of that well it's the banks

that own the mortgages which means

you're going to have some banking

trouble at some point uh probably very

soon Shanghai silver premiums we'll talk

about silver for a second so I Zoomed In

Here For the First Time gold charts us

is making it available so I zoom in on

2024 I don't know why that hasn't been

available until now but now that I can

see it I can show you uh that we've been

above the 10% premium line the black

line is what I drew in here 10% premium

Shanghai over New York um pretty much

the entire year excluding like a few

weeks maybe two or three weeks that

looks like two weeks uh between March

and April we've been above 10% and we've

been above 8.5% basically the entire

year and if you zoom out uh you can see

that this has never really happened

before with the only times we've been

above 10% very very briefly for like a

few days during these periods and a

slightly longer period maybe a week or

so maybe two weeks uh in late 2014 as

silver was Finding its final lows uh

this is something else though this is

sustained Chinese demand from Shanghai

exactly what is fueling it I can't tell

you um I'm hoping it's silver stacking

but it's probably a combination of

different things since this these

premiums are being sustained it means

that there is a sustain change in the

silver market as Chinese people are

relating to Silver in a different way

now um I wanted to comment on this Zero

Hedge tweet mostly I agree with it but

there's one point that I want to correct

here in the Zero Hedge tweet so the Yen

we're going to talk about the Yen now

the Yen as we know broke through 161

this morning uh new low we'll get into

that in a second so Yen weaker than lra

and peso in 2024 so this is the

performance of different currencies

different International currencies

versus the dollar year-to date 2024 the

worst performing one is the Yen it is

worse than the Argentine peso which is a

country in hyperinflation uh it looks

like Melee jav AR might have mitigated

that a bit with his libertarian policies

we'll see if it follows through uh still

the Turkish lerra has been hanging

around where it's been versus the dollar

for 2024 but that Count's uh has been in

a jogging hyperinflation for years I

think two or three years now and the

Japanese yen is doing worse than them uh

so then the Tweet says and the latter

part of the Tweet the best part is once

you finally contain it it's talking

about the bank of Japan to the Yen once

you finally contain the currency crisis

in the Yen you have a bond market crash

to look forward to I slightly disagree

with that assessment and here's why this

is the next chart here so it says Yen

weakness directly correlated with

Japanese Bond weakness we can see here

and I've gone through this few times I

just want to have it's so important and

so few people understand this that the

weaker the bond market is the weaker the

yen is I've said it before and I'll say

it again how this contradicts what what

Zero Hedge is saying in its tweet is

once you contain the currency crisis

then you have a bond market crisis but

no once you have a bond market crisis

you also have a currency crisis they

happen at the same time because the yen

is the bond market because the bank of

Japan owns so many bonds that's what the

yen is so as the bond market unravels so

does the currency there is no way to

strengthen the Yen at this point if you

hike rates if the bank of Japan hikes

rates let's say four or 5% to get rid of

the spread between the dollar and the

Yen then the Yen collapses anyway

because the bonds on its balance sheet

collapse in value and so does the

purchasing power of the Yen here is the

chart of the Yen and I want to show you

the technical situation we're in now

this is quite interesting so I think the

the latest numbers on this is not 1609

before I think it's 161.000 or something

like that whatever we broke through 161

this is above the 1990 low here remember

the higher this is the lower the yen is

is the amount of Yen it takes to buy a

dollar uh the final support here that is

that might not even be a support because

it's so uh it's so blippy it's very very

um tenuous over here is 163.190 October

1986 so 16029 we had one blip and then

after that we pretty much have no

support until we hit this line over here

this dash line of

189.5 so the 163 I'm getting from this

number over here where I moused over and

I froze the screen so we have 163 and

then 189.5 there's basically nothing

between

1633 and 189.5 so once we bake through

163 which could be in the next few days

it could be imminently um we could head

towards 189.5 and none of this uh

precludes that the bank of Japan won't

intervene here they still have cash to

intervene the question isn't will they

the question is when they do how long

will it last a few days a few weeks a

month who knows uh and what number are

they waiting for I have 100 might be

163.5 here the final support Zone when

they might smash it and then get the Y

back into the 150s somewhere and then we

can uh maybe a few weeks maybe a month

later you can start heading towards

189.5 we'll see what happens how is this

affecting the Japanese

uh consumer prices you can't see the the

bar on this chart here but I put the

line where the latest read is this is

month-over-month consumer prices I don't

like calling inflation because it's just

the effect of inflation so I said here

Japan consumer prices Advance 0.5%

second highest reading postco era so 05%

there's only one two three times um

we've hit that number since I think this

is 2008 maybe 2007 uh and if you want to

go back one two three four times since

the Asian financial crisis somewhere in

there um this is a very very high read

this is uh close to record territory

here which will uh Force the boj the

bank of Japan to hike rates on its bonds

which will crash for the bond market

which will make the end even weaker

there's no way out here there just there

just isn't um this final chart um this

is the percentage of Bank Reserves taken

up by repos um we are up to about 60% we

were at 55 56% last week we've jumped 4%

to 60% and the rep apocalypse the the

major financial crisis of 2019 happened

around here at 85% when repos took about

about 85% of Bank Reserves Bank Reserves

fell to 3 3.26 trillion I believe thank

you for watching and exploring these

critical insights with us as we prepare

for the next few tumultuous months

understanding these Dynamics is crucial

for securing your financial future if

you found this analysis helpful please

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shines brightly amidst the chaos until

next time stay informed stay prepared

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