BMNR PIPE Investors 100% Unlocked: Corrected dates & Strategy ahead!

Summary

In this video, Colin provides an updated analysis on BMR, correcting prior assumptions about PIPE investor unlock dates using the May 2025 10-Q filing. He explains that 50% of shares unlocked on July 28 and the remaining 50% on August 27, highlighting the stock’s reaction and recovery patterns. Colin reviews BMR’s treasury, Ethereum holdings, and daily ETH accumulation, linking them to macro trends like the anticipated Fed rate cut and growing institutional adoption. Emphasizing long-term value, he outlines his personal strategy for accumulating BMR shares, while discussing Ethereum’s dominance in tokenized real-world assets and the broader crypto market outlook.

Q & A

Who is the speaker in the video and what is his area of expertise?

The speaker is Colin, who focuses on fundamental analysis of crypto and stock projects, particularly those with long-term value. He is not providing financial advice.

What mistake did Colin correct from his previous video regarding PIPE investor unlock dates?

Colin initially estimated the PIPE investor unlock date as October 7, but the correct dates from the SEC 10-Q filing are July 28, 2025 for 50% of shares, and August 27, 2025 for the remaining 50%.

What is a PIPE investor, and how does it differ from public investors?

PIPE investors are early institutional and venture capital investors who purchase shares in private transactions not accessible to the public. They typically have lock-up periods before they can sell their shares.

What is the significance of the SEC forms S-1, S-3, 8-K, and 10-Q discussed in the video?

S-1 and S-3 are forms for registering securities for public sale, with S-1 being more detailed. 8-K reports major events to shareholders, while 10-Q provides a quarterly overview of the company's financial performance, operations, and major changes.

How did BMR's treasury and ETH holdings change between August 24 and August 28, 2025?

Between August 24 and 28, 2025, BMR's ETH holdings increased from 1.7M to 1.79M and the total treasury value grew from $8.8B to $9B, including $775M in cash on hand.

What was the market reaction to the PIPE investor unlocks on July 28 and August 27, 2025?

On July 28, 50% of shares unlocked, causing a price drop from ~$45 to ~$31 (≈30% drop). A similar pattern occurred on August 27 for the remaining 50%, with short-term consolidation observed afterward.

What is Colin's strategy regarding BMR shares?

Colin follows a long-term accumulation strategy: initial buy at $30.86, additional buys at $34.50 and $45, holding all shares even when price peaked at $70. Short-term target is ~$100, long-term target is >$200, focusing on BMR's execution and ETH growth.

How does Colin view the macroeconomic backdrop and its effect on ETH and BMR?

He expects a potential 25 bps rate cut in September 2025, which could increase market liquidity and positively impact risk assets like ETH and BMR. He also considers institutional adoption and regulatory clarity as key factors.

What evidence does Colin provide for institutional adoption of ETH?

Colin cites exposure to ETH through ETFs by institutions like Goldman Sachs ($721M), Jane Street ($190M), Citadel, and ARK. He also mentions over $50B of buying power in ETFs and digital asset treasuries, with August inflows surpassing $4B.

What does Colin say about MNAV and its relevance to BMR stock price?

MNAV is the market's valuation of BMR relative to its net asset value. It fluctuates with ETH prices and market sentiment. When ETH is higher, MNAV rises, influencing BMR’s stock price, as seen when MNAV reached 2.3–2.4 when shares traded at $72.

How does Colin justify being bullish on BMR despite short-term fluctuations?

He emphasizes the long-term value of ETH, BMR’s rapid treasury growth, and institutional adoption. Short-term price drops due to PIPE unlocks are seen as temporary and provide opportunities to accumulate shares.

What advice does Colin give to viewers about investing in crypto and BMR?

He advises viewers to conduct their own due diligence, research carefully, and focus on long-term value rather than short-term price movements. He also emphasizes understanding macro trends and institutional behaviors.