"It's Happening MUCH Sooner Than I Expected..." - Kishore Mahbubani

Summary

This transcript explores the global power shift, focusing on China's rise and the West's reaction, particularly the U.S. The speaker discusses China's peaceful approach to international relations, contrasting it with U.S. military actions, and the challenges the West faces in adjusting to China's growing influence. Key topics include the IMF's evolving role, the importance of multilateralism through institutions like the WTO, and the psychological resistance within the U.S. to losing its position as the dominant global power. The discussion emphasizes China's preference for stability and the positive contributions it could make to global infrastructure and development.

Takeaways

• 😀 The fear of China, often rooted in historical concepts like the 'yellow peril,' is a real issue in the West, though it may be misunderstood.
• 😀 Despite concerns, China has not engaged in military aggression since 1988, whereas the U.S. dropped 26,000 bombs in 2016, highlighting differing foreign policies.
• 😀 The West's struggle to share power with China is expected to intensify in the coming decade, with China’s growing economic influence challenging the traditional power dynamics.
• 😀 As China becomes the world’s largest economy, its voting share in institutions like the IMF will need to increase, possibly leading to a shift of the IMF headquarters to Beijing.
• 😀 The West must adapt to a world where China and India, not Europe or North America, historically dominated the global economy, and this trend is returning.
• 😀 While trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts may increase in the next decade, military conflict between the U.S. and China is unlikely due to nuclear deterrence.
• 😀 The U.S. has been psychologically resistant to the idea of becoming the world's second-largest power, despite already losing its lead in purchasing power parity terms.
• 😀 The U.S. political consensus against China is growing, with bipartisan support for confronting China, especially in trade matters.
• 😀 The World Trade Organization (WTO) is at a critical juncture, with its future uncertain. However, multilateral institutions are essential for maintaining global stability.
• 😀 China is learning from its mistakes in global development, such as the controversy over the Belt and Road Initiative, but overall, it offers more choices for global development, which benefits the world economy.

Q & A

What is the 'yellow peril' and how does it relate to Western fears of China?

The 'yellow peril' refers to a historical fear in the West of East Asian populations, especially China, potentially dominating the world. The speaker suggests that this fear is ingrained in the Western subconscious, though China has shown no intention of pursuing global domination like the United States has.

How does the speaker compare China's approach to military conflicts with that of the United States?

The speaker emphasizes that China has not engaged in any military conflicts since 1988, with the exception of a small naval battle with Vietnam. In contrast, the United States dropped 26,000 bombs on seven countries during Obama's presidency, highlighting the stark difference in military aggression between the two nations.

What does the speaker predict for US-China relations in the next decade?

The speaker predicts that US-China relations will deteriorate over the next 10 years, largely due to the West’s reluctance to share power with China as it becomes a more prominent global player. The challenge lies in adjusting to this power shift and learning to live with China's rise.

Why does the speaker believe that the IMF's headquarters might eventually move to Beijing?

The speaker argues that as China's economy continues to grow and surpasses that of the United States in nominal terms, the IMF's headquarters should logically relocate to Beijing. This shift would align with the IMF’s constitution, which states that the IMF should be based in the capital of the world’s largest economy.

How does the speaker describe China's stance on multilateralism and global institutions?

China is portrayed as a supporter of multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is willing to work within the established international order. The speaker points to President Xi Jinping’s speeches in Switzerland as evidence of China’s desire to strengthen these institutions rather than undermine them.

How does the speaker suggest the West should respond to the rising influence of China?

The speaker advocates for the West to adjust its thinking and embrace the idea of sharing power with China. The West should also lead by example, supporting multilateral rules, as this will encourage China to follow similar principles when it becomes the dominant global power.

What historical context does the speaker provide to explain the rise of China and India?

The speaker highlights that for most of history, from 1 AD to 1820, China and India were the two largest economies in the world. The past 200 years, in which Europe and North America have dominated, are seen as an historical anomaly. With Asia’s resurgence, it is expected that China and India will once again dominate the global economy.

What challenges does the speaker foresee for Europe and the United States in adjusting to China’s rise?

The speaker suggests that Europe is psychologically more prepared to accept that it is no longer the world’s leading power, but the United States struggles with this reality. The US has been the number one power for over a century, and there is significant resistance within the country to the idea of becoming the second-largest economy.

How does the speaker view the potential for military conflict between the United States and China?

The speaker dismisses the possibility of direct military conflict between the US and China due to both countries possessing nuclear weapons. Instead, he expects proxy wars and tensions over smaller states. The speaker stresses that the consequences of a war between nuclear powers would be catastrophic for both sides.

What role does the speaker believe small states like Switzerland and Singapore can play in the global order?

Small states like Switzerland and Singapore can play a key role in promoting multilateralism and supporting global institutions like the WTO. The speaker urges these countries to work together to advocate for the preservation of the WTO and to resist being used as proxies in the conflicts between larger powers like the US and China.