Konut fiyatları ve kiralar yükselecek mi, düşecek mi? Uzmanından kritik açıklamalar!

Summary

This video delves into the Turkish real estate market, discussing the effects of interest rates, construction costs, and limited housing supply on property prices. Despite expectations that lower interest rates would reduce housing prices, the reality is that prices remain high due to rising costs and insufficient production. The rental market faces similar challenges, with increasing demand and higher rents. The speaker compares Turkey’s housing situation to other countries, highlighting the need for public sector involvement to solve the crisis, particularly through state-run housing projects for lower and middle-income groups.

Takeaways

• 😀 Interest rate cuts have not led to a significant decrease in housing prices in Turkey, as expected.
• 😀 Despite falling interest rates, construction costs are rising, preventing real estate prices from decreasing.
• 😀 There is a real estate sales crisis in Turkey, with average property sales taking 70 days in 2025, compared to 78 days in 2008.
• 😀 High property prices make it difficult for many potential buyers to access housing, especially for first-time buyers and renters.
• 😀 The lack of access to credit in Turkey is a key factor in the inability of many people to purchase homes, pushing them towards renting.
• 😀 A significant portion of Turkey's real estate costs is tied to foreign currency, especially in construction materials, further driving up housing prices.
• 😀 The expectation that high interest rates would lead to lower housing prices has not materialized, as many sellers are unwilling to reduce prices.
• 😀 In the long term, if the current trends continue, housing prices in Turkey may increase despite the challenges of high interest rates and low sales.
• 😀 The Turkish real estate market is heavily influenced by cultural factors, with homeownership seen as an essential goal for many individuals.
• 😀 Turkey's housing crisis is partly due to the concentration of industry and population in Istanbul, which causes high demand and increased prices in the city.
• 😀 The government needs to step in with public housing initiatives to alleviate the housing crisis, as the private sector cannot meet the demand for affordable housing.

Q & A

What is the main concern about the real estate market in Turkey, according to the speaker?

The main concern is that despite the expectation that lower interest rates would lead to reduced property prices, the situation is actually quite the opposite. Real estate prices are not decreasing, and the sector is facing a significant housing crisis.

How have interest rates affected property prices in Turkey?

The speaker explains that while there is an expectation that lower interest rates would reduce property prices, the reality is that lower rates have led to a decrease in housing costs for buyers, but construction companies have not lowered prices due to the increasing costs of construction materials, many of which are linked to foreign currencies.

What is the current situation of housing sales in Turkey?

Housing sales have decreased, and the average time for a property to be sold has increased. While there is a housing crisis, the limited supply of homes has prevented the market from feeling the full effects of the downturn.

What financial challenges do buyers face when purchasing real estate in Turkey?

Buyers are facing high real estate prices and limited access to credit. Even when a buyer has the cash to pay a large portion of the property price, they still need to borrow money, and the cost of borrowing, with interest, makes it a less financially viable option.

Will rental prices decrease in the near future in Turkey?

The speaker believes that while there might be some decrease in rental prices, the ongoing housing shortage and high demand for rentals will continue to drive rental inflation.

Why is there such a high demand for housing in Turkey?

Turkey experiences significant internal migration (5 million people per year), and with a high number of people getting married and divorced, there is a large need for housing. Despite this demand, the supply of new homes is insufficient to meet the needs of the population.

How does the housing situation in Turkey compare to other countries?

The housing situation in Turkey is unique due to its high population density and cultural tendencies toward homeownership. Compared to countries like Germany, Turkey has a much higher rate of housing demand and production. However, the prices for real estate in Turkey are significantly higher than in other countries like the UK, Italy, or France.

What are some of the reasons for the housing affordability issue in Turkey?

The main reasons include the high cost of land, which is a significant part of construction costs, and the lack of sufficient government intervention. There is also a concentration of population and economic activity in cities like Istanbul, which drives up demand and prices.

What is the proposed solution to Turkey's housing crisis?

The speaker suggests that the government should step in and provide affordable housing through institutions like TOKI and Emlak Konut. These government bodies, using public land, could produce affordable housing without profit motives, especially for lower-income households.

What role does urban transformation play in the housing market in Istanbul?

Urban transformation in Istanbul is crucial but currently hindered by political conflicts and delays. Many areas that need to be redeveloped are stuck in bureaucratic processes, preventing them from contributing to the housing supply.