What’s in Iran's ballistic missile arsenal? | BBC News

Summary

In this military briefing, Mikey Kay, a former British military officer, provides an in-depth analysis of the recent missile threats posed by Iran and Israel's defense capabilities. He explores the distances involved in the missile strikes, the limitations of Iran's missile systems, and the importance of collaboration between countries like Syria and Iran. The briefing also delves into Israel's defense strategy, including the Iron Dome, David Sling, and Arrow missile systems, along with the logistical challenges of resupplying these defenses. Additionally, Kay touches on potential Israeli retaliation options, including targeting nuclear facilities and Hezbollah, highlighting the complexity and strategic planning involved in the conflict.

Takeaways

• 😀 Mikey Kay, a former British military officer, provides weekly in-depth military briefings on National Security decisions in Jerusalem and Washington.
• 😀 The briefing focuses on Iranian military actions, particularly their ballistic missile capabilities and the potential launch locations within the region.
• 😀 Iran's missile systems such as the HaC, Shahab 3, and Fattah 2 are discussed, with a particular emphasis on their ranges and capabilities.
• 😀 There's debate over whether the Fattah 2 missile, rumored to be hypersonic, could reach Israel, with concerns about its range limitations and deployment logistics.
• 😀 Israel's missile defense systems, including Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow 2 and 3, are designed to counter threats from ballistic missiles and rockets.
• 😀 The Iron Dome system has a high interception rate, with a range of 2.5 to 44 miles, and is complemented by U.S. naval warships firing interception missiles in the Mediterranean.
• 😀 Israel's defense spending on missile systems like the Arrow 2 and 3 and the cost of intercepting incoming missiles raises questions about sustainability in the long term.
• 😀 Israel's strategic military planners will need to carefully assess missile resupply capabilities and their implications for ongoing defense operations.
• 😀 Potential Israeli military responses to Iranian aggression could target nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and economic assets, with considerations for long-range fighter operations.
• 😀 The topography along Israel's border with Lebanon complicates military operations, especially for tanks navigating mountainous terrain, and Hezbollah's ability to pose a threat in the region is significant.
• 😀 Iran could flood southern Lebanon with militia groups, further complicating Israel's military situation, with threats like IEDs and explosive force penetrators used against armored vehicles.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the military briefing discussed in the transcript?

The briefing focuses on analyzing the military situation involving Iran and Israel, particularly the missile threats from Iran, Israel's defense capabilities, and potential strategies for military action from both sides.

What are the main ballistic missile systems that Iran has deployed, as discussed in the briefing?

The main ballistic missile systems discussed are the Ha Kim, KBA, and Shahab 3. The Ha Kim and KBA have ranges of around 870 miles and 900 miles, respectively, while the Shahab 3 has a greater range of approximately 1,200 miles.

What was the confusion regarding the 'Fatter 2' missile, and why is it important?

There was confusion on social media and news outlets about the Fatter 2 missile being a hypersonic weapon. However, it was clarified that the Fatter 2 has a range of about 250 miles, which makes it unlikely to have been used from Iran to target Israel directly. The missile would have had to be deployed in Syria to reach Israel.

How does Israel's missile defense system, including the Iron Dome, work to counter threats?

Israel's missile defense system is multi-layered, including the Arrow 2 and 3 (long-range ballistic missile defense), David's Sling (medium-range defense), and the Iron Dome (short-range defense). The Iron Dome intercepts incoming rockets, including those from Hezbollah, using a target tracking radar and the Tamir intercept missile.

What are the challenges of sustaining Israel's missile defense system in the face of repeated missile attacks?

The primary challenge is the cost of intercepting missiles, with some systems like the Arrow 2 costing $1.5 million per missile. With repeated missile attacks, resupply of interception missiles becomes crucial, and Israel needs to carefully manage its stockpile, especially given global supply chain constraints.

Why is there concern about provoking Iran into further missile attacks despite Israel's tough stance?

The concern is that further missile attacks could deplete Israel's missile defense systems, especially the Arrow 2 and 3, and other interception technologies. Israel's military planners need to consider the long-term sustainability of their defense capabilities, given the cost and logistical challenges of resupplying these systems.

What are the potential military options for Israel in terms of retaliatory action against Iran?

Israel could target Iran's nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and oil infrastructure. A likely course of action would involve a package of fighter jets conducting strikes, with potential use of F-35 stealth fighters for suppression of air defenses and F-16s and F-15s for long-range missile strikes.

How do Israeli pilots plan for long-range operations, especially considering the deep underground locations of Iranian nuclear facilities?

Israeli pilots would likely use stealth fighters like the F-35 to suppress enemy air defenses and F-16s or F-15s with cruise missiles to target deep underground nuclear facilities. These facilities, being well-protected, may require the use of penetrator missiles like the Storm Shadow.

What role does Saudi Arabia play in potential Israeli military action, as discussed in the briefing?

For Israel to carry out a direct airstrike on Iran via Saudi airspace, significant coordination would be required with Saudi Arabia. This includes approval to fly a large package of aircraft, including refuelers and electronic warfare planes, over Saudi territory.

What threat does Hezbollah pose to Israel beyond missile attacks?

Hezbollah poses a significant threat not only through missile attacks but also through its militia presence along the Lebanese border. The terrain is challenging, and the group could deploy advanced tactics like IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) against Israeli armored units, complicating ground operations.