NALAR Ep. 32. MERANCANG MASA DEPAN MENGGUNAKAN SCENARIO PLANNING & ANALYSIS

Summary

This script explores the concept of scenario planning as part of Foresight, emphasizing that the future is shaped by current actions rather than predicted. It delves into the process of identifying key events, trends, and drivers to construct various future scenarios. The script discusses inductive and deductive methods of scenario creation, illustrated by examples from South Africa, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. The ultimate goal is to build a roadmap for a desired future, encouraging a collective approach to shaping our future through imagination, analysis, and strategic decision-making.

Takeaways

• 😀 Scenario planning is a tool used to shape the future, not merely predict it.
• 😀 The future is seen as something that is shaped by current actions, not something pre-existing to be discovered.
• 😀 The context of the future is influenced by six key dimensions: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values (STEEPV).
• 😀 Scenario planning helps identify significant events, trends, and drivers that shape future possibilities.
• 😀 It is crucial to engage multiple stakeholders for effective foresight planning, as one individual or organization alone cannot effectively shape the future.
• 😀 Scenario creation is a highly imaginative process, where various scenarios are built based on identified trends and drivers.
• 😀 Inductive scenario building starts with a central issue or driver and creates scenarios based on it, such as in the 'Mount Fleur' scenario in South Africa.
• 😀 Deductive scenario planning involves identifying two primary drivers and creating scenarios by placing them on a grid, leading to multiple possible futures.
• 😀 The 'Ultimate Driver' approach limits scenarios to just a few options based on a single key driver, such as national leadership choices.
• 😀 The goal of scenario planning is transformational: to imagine, in vivid detail, how different future scenarios would unfold and to develop adaptive strategies for each.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the script regarding the future?

The main focus is on 'Scenario Planning and Analysis' as a tool within the broader discipline of Foresight, which involves actively shaping the future rather than merely predicting or forecasting it.

How is the future viewed within the discipline of Foresight?

Within Foresight, the future is seen as something that is actively shaped through current actions and decisions, rather than as a predetermined outcome to be predicted or found, as some other schools of thought might suggest.

What is the STEEPV framework mentioned in the script?

STEEPV is an acronym for six key dimensions to consider when analyzing the future: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Value contexts.

Why is understanding 'drivers' important in scenario planning?

Identifying 'drivers' helps to understand the underlying factors that propel events and trends, allowing planners to design realistic and relevant scenarios for the future.

What are the steps involved in the Foresight process as outlined in the script?

The steps include identifying significant events, analyzing trends, recognizing drivers of those trends, designing scenarios, and then creating a roadmap to achieve the desired future.

Can Foresight be effective when conducted by just one individual or organization?

No, Foresight is more effective when carried out by a group of stakeholders, as it requires input from diverse perspectives to truly shape the future of a sector, area, or region.

What are the three methods for designing scenarios as mentioned in the script?

The three methods are: 1) Inductive approach, which starts with a key driver or issue, 2) Deductive approach, which involves identifying two main drivers and mapping them to create scenarios, and 3) Ultimate driver approach, where one key driver determines the entire future scenario.

What is an example of a scenario planning exercise in Africa mentioned in the script?

The 'Mount Fleur Scenario' in South Africa during the early 1990s is an example, where the main driver was political conflict, and scenarios were created based on whether peace could be negotiated or not.

How does the 'Ultimate Driver' scenario planning method work?

The 'Ultimate Driver' method focuses on a single, crucial driver that shapes all possible future scenarios. For example, in Indonesia in 2013-2014, the key driver was the choice of national leadership, with two possible scenarios based on whether the leader was Jokowi or Prabowo.

What is the purpose of creating scenarios in Foresight?

The purpose of creating scenarios is to explore possible futures in a vivid and detailed manner, understand what might happen under different conditions, and identify what actions should be taken today to influence the desired future.