Iran’s President Raisi has died. What now?

Summary

This video script discusses the political implications of Iranian President Ri's death in a helicopter crash, which occurred amidst geopolitical tensions and internal power struggles. Ri, a potential successor to the ailing Supreme Leader, had a contentious relationship with Iran's military and clerical factions. His death intensifies the succession debate, potentially shifting Iran's political landscape towards a more militaristic regime. The script also explores Iran's complex political system, where democratically elected officials coexist with unelected theocratic authorities, and speculates on the impact of Ri's death on Iran's domestic and foreign policies.

Takeaways

• 🏆 Three years ago, Ibrahim Rizi won the presidency in a rigged election, with some analysts suggesting it was a strategic move to position himself for the Supreme Leader's role.
• 🛌 The aging and ailing Supreme Leader, Ali Shamani, is beyond the life expectancy of Iranians, and upon his death, it was expected that Rizi would aim to replace him.
• 🚁 Rizi's life was tragically cut short on May 19th in a helicopter crash while returning from a visit to a neighboring country, with the official story citing bad weather as the cause.
• 🤔 Speculations abound about the crash, with many questioning if Rizi's colleagues conspired against him given his long list of enemies both within and outside Iran.
• 🕊️ The death of Rizi comes at a time of significant geopolitical strife, with Iran and its proxies in conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
• 🔄 The upper echelons of Iran's theocracy are now in a state of infighting, with the death of Rizi deepening the internal power struggle for the succession of the Supreme Leader.
• 🎖️ Rizi was considered an ideal consensus candidate for the Supreme Leader's office, with his hardline credentials and experience in overseeing multiple branches of the government.
• 👥 The absence of Rizi leaves Moshava as the leading candidate for the Supreme Leader's office, despite concerns about the theocratic process appearing hereditary.
• 💼 The next presidential election in Iran will be crucial, as it will likely oversee the transition from Ali Shamani to a new Supreme Leader, shaping Iran's destiny for decades to come.
• 🕊️ In the interim, Vice President Muhammad Mbir will assume the presidency until a new election can be held within 50 days, as per the Constitution.
• 🕊️ Rizi's death is unlikely to affect Iran's immediate security but will cast a shadow over the succession process and potentially influence Iran's domestic and foreign policy.

Q & A

Who was Ibraham Rizi and how did he win the presidency?

Ibraham Rizi was a political figure who won the presidency in a rigged election three years prior to the events described in the script. Analysts suggested that his win was a strategic move to position himself for a more distinguished role, potentially aiming to replace the aging and ailing supreme leader, Ali Shamani.

What happened to Ibraham Rizi on May 19th?

On May 19th, Ibraham Rizi lost his life in a helicopter crash while returning from a visit to a neighboring country where he had inaugurated a dam. The crash occurred in a mountainous region about 86 km Northeast of Tze.

What is the official explanation for the helicopter crash?

The official explanation for the helicopter crash is bad weather. However, given the complexity of Iranian politics, many have begun to speculate about more nefarious explanations, questioning whether Rizi's colleagues conspired to eliminate him.

How does Iran's political system work, and what is the role of the supreme leader?

Iran operates as an Islamic Republic with a unique blend of democratic and totalitarian elements. The country has an unelected supreme leader at the top, who holds significant power over domestic and foreign policy, including the country's dress code and nuclear program. The supreme leader is selected by a group of senior clerics and lawyers known as the Assembly of Experts, which is elected in a national vote.

Who were the leading candidates to replace Ali Shamani as the supreme leader after his death?

The two leading candidates to replace Ali Shamani as the supreme leader were Ibraham Rizi and Moshava. However, with Rizi's death, Moshava is now the only leading candidate left.

What are the implications of Moshava becoming the supreme leader?

If Moshava becomes the supreme leader, it could make the theocratic process appear as a hereditary transfer of power, as he is the second son of the current supreme leader. This could lead to a strengthening of the military's role within Iran's political and economic landscape.

How did Ibraham Rizi's presidency impact Iran's domestic and foreign policies?

Ibraham Rizi, being a conservative insider with close ties to Ali Shamani, was perhaps the least consequential president in Iran's post-revolutionary history. He did not press for domestic change and was known for his clueless handling of the economy, which nosedived in value during his presidency.

What is the role of the vice president in the event of the president's death?

According to the Iranian Constitution, in the event of the president's death, the vice president assumes the presidency until a new election can be held within 50 days.

Who is Muhammad Mbir, and what is his significance in the current political climate?

Muhammad Mbir is the vice president who assumed the presidency after Ibraham Rizi's death. He is a bureaucrat with close ties to the military and has handled conglomerates for both the supreme leader and the deputies from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

What is the significance of the next presidential election in Iran?

The next presidential election in Iran is crucial as it will likely oversee the transition from Ali Shamani to a new supreme leader. The winner, whether conservative or moderate, will shape the destiny of Iran in the decades to come.

How does the script suggest the geopolitical context might influence the investigation into Rizi's death?

The script suggests that the geopolitical context, with Iran engaged in a regional proxy conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, might lead to various conspiracy theories and finger-pointing. It also mentions that Israel has preemptively denied involvement in the crash.

Outlines

00:00

🏛️ Political Turmoil in Iran: The Death of President RI

This paragraph discusses the unexpected death of Iranian President RI, who was involved in a helicopter crash on May 19th. RI was a potential successor to the ailing Supreme Leader, Ali Shamani. The crash occurred during a visit to a neighboring country and involved the foreign minister as well. The official story attributes the crash to bad weather, but speculations about a conspiracy are rife due to RI's many enemies. The death of RI has significant implications for Iran's political landscape, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical strife with countries like the USA, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The internal power struggle within Iran's military and clerical leaders over the succession of the Supreme Leader is also highlighted, suggesting that RI's death could lead to increased infighting and changes in Iran's domestic and foreign policies.

05:02

👥 The Complexities of Iran's Political System and Succession

This paragraph delves into the intricacies of Iran's political system, which combines both elected and unelected branches, creating a unique blend of totalitarianism and democracy. It explains the roles of the president and the Supreme Leader, with the latter holding ultimate authority over domestic and foreign policies. The focus then shifts to the uncertainty following the death of a potential Supreme Leader successor, RI. The paragraph explores the implications of RI's death on the selection process for the next Supreme Leader, noting that Moshava, another leading candidate and the son of the current Supreme Leader, could face challenges due to the hereditary appearance of power transfer. The potential for a military-backed candidate to lead the country towards a more militaristic political landscape is also discussed, hinting at possible shifts in Iran's foreign policy under such leadership.

10:04

🕊️ The Immediate Aftermath and Future of Iran's Leadership

The final paragraph addresses the immediate aftermath of President RI's death, including the role of Vice President Muhammad Mbir, who is set to assume the presidency until new elections can be held within 50 days as per the Constitution. It also touches on the significance of the next presidential election, which will determine the direction of Iran's political landscape as the country transitions from Ali Shamani to a new Supreme Leader. The paragraph highlights the ongoing regional conflicts involving Iran, America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and the potential for conspiracy theories to arise from RI's death. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of the democratic bodies finding a new president swiftly during this challenging time, and the impact this period of political uncertainty could have on Iran's future.

Keywords

💡Rigged Election

A rigged election refers to an electoral process that has been manipulated or distorted in some way to produce a predetermined result. In the context of the video, it is suggested that Ibraham Rizi won the presidency three years ago through such means, indicating a lack of fairness and transparency in the electoral process. This concept is central to understanding the political climate and the skepticism surrounding Rizi's rise to power.

💡Supreme Leader

The Supreme Leader is the highest-ranking political and religious authority in Iran, holding significant power over both domestic and foreign policy. The video discusses Ali Shamani, the aging and ailing Supreme Leader, and the implications of his potential death on Iran's political landscape. The concept of the Supreme Leader is integral to understanding Iran's unique political system and the power dynamics at play.

💡Helicopter Crash

The helicopter crash mentioned in the video refers to the tragic incident on May 19th that resulted in the death of President Rizi and the foreign minister. The crash occurred in a mountainous region and was initially attributed to bad weather. This event is a pivotal moment in the narrative, sparking various conspiracy theories and speculations about the true cause of the accident.

💡Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy theories are speculative explanations that suggest a hidden or secret agenda, often involving powerful groups or individuals. The video highlights how many Iranians and observers have begun to speculate about more nefarious explanations behind Rizi's helicopter crash, questioning whether his colleagues or external enemies might have conspired to eliminate him. This concept is key to understanding the complex and often opaque nature of Iranian politics.

💡Geopolitical Strife

Geopolitical strife refers to conflicts or tensions between nations on a global scale. The video discusses the ongoing conflict involving Iran, America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which adds to the complexity of the situation following Rizi's death. Understanding this concept is crucial for grasping the broader implications of the political events unfolding in Iran.

💡Succession

Succession in this context refers to the process of selecting a new leader to replace the current one, particularly in the event of death or incapacity. The video delves into the potential candidates for the role of Supreme Leader following Shamani's expected death, and the implications of Rizi's demise on this process. Succession is a central theme in the video, as it could significantly alter Iran's political trajectory.

💡Theocracy

A theocracy is a form of government in which religious leaders hold power or authority. The video describes Iran as an Islamic Republic, a unique system that combines elements of democracy with an unelected theocracy, including the military, judiciary, and media. This concept is essential for understanding the dual nature of Iran's government and the tensions between its elected and unelected branches.

💡Militaristic

Militaristic refers to a political or social system that is dominated by the military or that emphasizes military principles and values. The video suggests that with a military-backed candidate like Moshava potentially taking power, Iran's political landscape could evolve towards a more militaristic structure. This concept is important for considering the potential shifts in Iran's domestic and foreign policies.

💡Proxy Conflict

A proxy conflict is a confrontation in which one state uses third parties to act against another, rather than engaging directly. The video mentions Iran's involvement in a regional proxy conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. This concept is significant for understanding the broader regional dynamics and the potential impact of internal political changes in Iran.

💡Constitutional Succession Process

The constitutional succession process refers to the legally defined sequence of events that occur when a leadership position becomes vacant. According to the video, Iran's Constitution mandates a new election within 50 days following the death of the president. This concept is crucial for understanding the immediate steps that Iran must take to address the power vacuum created by Rizi's death.

💡Moderates vs. Conservatives

In the context of Iranian politics, moderates and conservatives represent two broad ideological factions with differing views on governance and foreign policy. The video suggests that the next presidential election will be crucial, as it will determine whether a conservative or moderate candidate will oversee the transition to a new Supreme Leader. This concept is key to understanding the ideological struggle within Iran's political system and its potential impact on the country's future direction.

Highlights

Ibrahim Rizi won the presidency in a rigged election three years ago.

Rizi was expected to aim to replace the aging and ailing supreme leader Ali Shamani upon his death.

Rizi's death occurred in a helicopter crash on May 19th, with the foreign minister also onboard.

The official story of the crash is bad weather, but there are speculations of more nefarious explanations.

Rizi had many enemies both from without and within Iran, leading to questions about a possible conspiracy.

Iran is both totalitarian and democratic, with an unelected supreme leader and elected officials.

The supreme leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, which is elected in a national vote.

Rizi was one of the leading candidates to take the Supreme Leader's office after Shamani's death.

Moshava, the supreme leader's second son, is now the only leading candidate left for the top office.

Moshava's rise to power could make the theocratic process appear as a hereditary transfer of power.

A military-backed Moshava could lead to a more militaristic political landscape in Iran.

Shamani has intervened against conservatives to support moderate-leaning lawmakers in the past.

The death of Rizi will cloud the succession of the supreme leader and could evolve Iran's domestic and foreign policy.

Rizi is remembered as the hanging judge who sent thousands of political prisoners to the gallows in 1988.

The younger generation remembers Rizi for his poor handling of the economy.

The next presidential election in Iran will be crucial and shape the country's destiny in the coming decades.

Iran is currently engaged in a regional proxy conflict with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

Iran recently had a military clash with Israel, with both sides exchanging attacks.

Iran's Constitution sets a 50-day period for a new election after the president's death.

Vice President Muhammad Mbir will assume the presidency until a new election is held.

Transcripts

3 years ago Ibraham rizi won the

presidency in a rigged election some

analysts suggested it was a premeditated

move toward a more distinguished

position Ali shamani the aging and

ailing supreme leader is well beyond the

life expectancy of Iranians upon his

death it was expected that RI would aim

to replace him however history is not

without its irony instead of elevating

him to the Supreme off office winning

the presidency cost RI his life on May

19th while returning from a visit to

neighboring aeran where RI had

inaugurated a dam On the Border

authorities lost contact with his

helicopter it happened in a mountainous

region about 86 km Northeast of tze the

next day state media confirmed Ry was

dead along with the foreign minister who

was traveling in the same helicopter

much is still unclear about the crash

the official story so far is bad weather

but nothing is ever as it seems in

Iranian politics many have begun to

speculate about more nefarious

explanations Rice's list of enemies is

long both from without and within it is

not unreasonable to question whether his

colleagues conspired to eliminate him

nevertheless nervous days are ahead for

tyan the president is dead and it comes

at a time of great geopolitical Strife

on the outside Iran and its proxies are

waging a conflict against America Israel

and Saudi Arabia meanwhile from the

inside Iran's military and clerical

power Brokers are battling for the

succession of the supreme leader the

death of RI deepens infighting within

the upper echelons of the theocracy it

changes everything everywhere all at

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once there is no shortage of conspiracy

stories when it comes to Iran with so

many adversaries on all fronts many

Iranians wonder if the accident involved

fou will play the finger pointing has

already begun Israel has come out

preemptively saying that it wasn't them

and US officials have backed that up

still sometimes truth takes a backseat

in geopolitics and this is precisely the

type of narrative that can be twisted

toward strategic ends ground news

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it Iran is not for beginners it can be

perplexing in some ways the country has

an unelected supreme leader at the top

but it also has a democratically elected

president this then makes Iran both

totalitarian Democratic at the same time

seeing it this way goes a long way to

explaining why the country is the way it

is after the revolution in 1979 Iran

emerged as an Islamic Republic no such

system existed at the time so the

leadership had to make up the rules on

the go the result was a government that

mashed together two widely different

political beliefs some parts are elected

and some are unelected but they're both

Tangled together like order in chaos

there is considerable tension between

these two systems Iranians elect the

president the Parliament and the

Assembly of experts which is the

government body that chooses the supreme

leader Tangled interchangeably with the

supreme leader is the unelected

theocracy which includes the military

the mosque the Judiciary and the media

as well as advisory bodies like the

expediency Council and the guardian

Council the presidency has restrained

Powers particularly when it comes to

foreign policy the supreme leader is the

one who calls the shots he sets the tone

for domestic and foreign policy

including the country's dress code and

nuclear program but what happens when

the supreme leader dies that is the

million doll question officially the

supreme leader is selected by a group of

senior clerics and lawyers who make up

the Assembly of experts which in turn is

elected in a national vote RI was one of

the two leading candidates next in line

to take the Supreme Leader's office

after his death the other being

moshava there are some other Darkhorse

candidates but it's hard to imagine them

winning enough support in Iran's

intricate political system RI was

considered an ideal consensus candidate

yeah had overseen multiple branches of

the government and his Hardline

credentials were unquestionable the

conservative and military power Brokers

had hoped to employ him to advance their

interests with ryy gone however it is

not clear who else could gather

consensus to fill that role mashaba is

now the only leading candidate left even

so the problem with mushtaba is that he

is supreme leader K's second son moshava

has Amplified his credentials among the

Iranian clergy in recent years but if he

came to power it would make the

Theocratic process look like a

hereditary transfer of power admittedly

RI wasn't popular either but with him

out of the picture moshava now has a

clear shot to the top office moshava is

now likely to speedrun through the

political system making allies left and

right his most sought-after objective

would be to make a deal with the power

Brokers from the Islamic revolutionary

guard cores doing so would allow moshava

to weather any backlash however in turn

this would strengthen the role of the

military within the country's political

and economic landscape for context while

shamani is widely seen as an ultra

conservative leader he has on many

occasions intervened against

conservatives to support moderate

leaning

lawmakers for instance he backed rohan's

rise to the presidency in 2013 and he

embraced negotiations with the United

States over Iran's nuclear program a

supreme leader lacking such Maia valian

power plays would reinforce Iran's

Reckless foreign policy driven by the

military establishment so with a

military-backed mashaba in power Iran's

political landscape might evolve from a

Theocratic democracy to something more

militaristic in the decade following

Iran could emerge as less religious

conservative at home but more

belligerent abroad seen in this way the

death of rizi will shake politics in tan

it will not affect the country's

immediate security but it will Cloud the

succession of the supreme leader which

in itself could evolve Iran's domestic

andfor foreign policy few Iranians will

mourn RI though they will remember him

as the hanging judge a prosecutor in

Teran who sent thousands of political

prisoners to The Gallows in

1988 meanwhile the younger generation

will remember him for his clueless

handling of the economy the president

who stalked his cabinet with military

men and clerics who watched as the real

nose dived in value in less than 3 years

during his presidency RI rejected to

press for domestic change which is in

contrast to his immediate predecessors

Hassan rouani for instance negotiated

the nuclear deal with the West while

Ahmed inad sought to operate

independently from the supreme leader RI

being a conservative Insider with close

ties to shamani was perhaps the least

consequential president in Iran's

post-revolution evolutionary history the

Theocratic half of Iran's government

will now need to reach some sort of

consensus on mushtaba or negotiate for

one of the other Darkhorse candidates

most likely another conservative Insider

in the meantime the Democratic bodies

will need to find a new president

swiftly and at a difficult time the

Constitution clearly sets out a

succession process a new election must

be held within 50 days until then vice

president Muhammad mbir will assume the

presidency what you need to know about

mcir is that he is a bureaucrat much

like Mike Pence mcber enjoys close ties

to hini and the military he used to

handle conglomerates worth tens of

billions of dollars for both the supreme

leader and the deputies from the Islamic

revolutionary guard Corps eventually

though mochar will be replaced by

someone else the next presidential

election will be crucial whoever wins

conservatives or moderates will likely

oversee the transition from Ali shamani

to a new supreme leader it will shape

the destiny of Iran in the decades to

come however these power plays come at a

time when Iran is engaged in a regional

proxy conflict with America Israel and

Saudi Arabia not surprisingly many

Iranians wandered if any of their

adversaries had a role in the crash last

month Iran came to blows with Israel the

Israelis had assassinated an Iranian

General in Syria and the Iranians

retaliated with a volley of more than

300 missiles and drones aimed at Israel

mad Israel's spy apparatus has a

long-standing history of assassinating

its foes including in Iran where it has

eliminated highr file nuclear scientists

but mosad has never gone so far as to

assassinate a head of state doing so

would be an explicit Act of war that

would call for a violent Iranian

response it would be Reckless to risk

such hostility just to assassinate RI a

profoundly unpopular politician who

lacks final authority over many of

Iran's key policy decisions so Israel's

involvement is unlike

but that won't stop Iranian officials

from promoting conspiracy theories

either way ri's death will exacerbate

infighting within the upper ranks of the

elite this is not a system where people

leave empty-handed if necessary they can

cut off

hands I've been your host chivon from

Caspian report if you approve of what we

do please leave a comment hit the like

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in any case thank you for your time and

soul

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