Germany elections, momentum with AfD Alice Weidel

Summary

The upcoming German elections, set for February 23rd, reveal a rapidly shifting political landscape. While the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the new BSW party are gaining momentum, the established CDU/CSU and SPD are struggling under internal pressure. The rise of Alice Vlel contrasts with the stagnation of Merz, while Olaf Scholz faces challenges from both the BSW and the AfD. Amid economic decline, particularly in key industries, Germany's political class seems unable to address the underlying issues, leading to increased disillusionment among voters. If the trends continue, Germany could experience a political earthquake with significant consequences for the future of the nation.

Takeaways

• 😀 The upcoming German elections on February 23rd are expected to bring significant political shifts, with smaller parties like AfD and BSW rising in popularity.
• 😀 The CDU/CSU, led by Merz, is struggling in the polls and appears stagnant, while AfD's Alice Weidel is gaining more momentum with her dynamic leadership.
• 😀 Olaf Scholz's SPD is under pressure from the BSW party on the left, leading to a shift in its stance on the war in Ukraine and military support.
• 😀 The BSW party, which started from zero, is now polling above 7%, well over the 5% threshold needed to secure seats in the Bundestag.
• 😀 Germany's economy is facing serious challenges, including de-industrialization and the decline of key industries like chemicals and automotive.
• 😀 The EU's policies are seen as having accelerated Germany's economic decline, undermining its industrial strength and competitiveness.
• 😀 The CDU/CSU's popularity has dropped from 32% to around 29%, indicating a decline that could worsen if it falls below 29%.
• 😀 The Greens remain a strong political force, staunchly supporting Ukraine and advocating for Germany's energy transformation, despite some ideological opposition.
• 😀 The political class in Germany is in a state of panic, with the potential for a major shift in power if the AfD and BSW perform strongly in the elections.
• 😀 A grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD seems likely, leading to a continuation of current policies and potential further political instability.
• 😀 Germany’s political class continues to ignore the underlying problems of the economy, focusing on maintaining political stability rather than addressing long-term issues, which risks further decline.

Q & A

What are the key political trends in Germany ahead of the February 2025 elections?

The political landscape in Germany is seeing a shift, with Alice Weidel and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining momentum. The CDU, led by Merz, is stagnating, and the SPD under Olaf Scholz faces pressure from the BSW party, which has grown in popularity. The Greens are still a strong force, but their support is more ideological.

How is Alice Weidel's political influence affecting the German election dynamics?

Alice Weidel is seen as a more dynamic and charismatic leader compared to Merz. She has garnered significant attention, pulling support away from the CDU and influencing the national conversation on issues like migration and Ukraine.

What role is the BSW party playing in the upcoming elections?

The BSW, which started with little support, has grown rapidly and is now polling above the 5% threshold needed to enter the Bundestag. Its growth is primarily driven by its stance against continued German support for the war in Ukraine and its appeal to left-leaning voters disillusioned with the SPD.

How is the SPD under Olaf Scholz handling the pressure from the BSW?

Scholz's SPD is under pressure from the BSW, which opposes further support for Ukraine. Scholz has started to moderate his stance on Ukraine, blocking further arms and financial aid, to avoid alienating voters in the SPD's traditional heartlands.

What is the political strategy of Merz and the CDU/CSU in the lead-up to the elections?

Merz and the CDU/CSU initially positioned themselves as hardliners on Ukraine but have started to soften their rhetoric to appeal to a broader electorate. Merz is also adopting more free-market policies, though his lack of charisma and leadership has led to stagnation in support for the CDU.

How are the Greens positioned in the upcoming elections?

The Greens are still a significant political force, particularly among true believers in their environmental policies. They maintain strong support for Ukraine and the transition to renewable energy, though their positions are increasingly being questioned by other parties.

What challenges are the CDU/CSU facing in the lead-up to the elections?

The CDU/CSU is facing stagnation in the polls, with some surveys showing their support dropping from 32% to 29%. Their inability to address economic problems and the rising popularity of the AfD and BSW are key challenges threatening their dominance.

What economic issues are central to the political conversation in Germany?

Germany is facing a deindustrialization crisis, with key sectors like the chemical and automotive industries struggling. There are concerns over the competitiveness of German industry, and a lack of innovation has contributed to its economic decline.

How is the EU's influence perceived in Germany's economic challenges?

The EU is seen as contributing to Germany's economic problems by creating a false sense of stability and reducing incentives for innovation. While Germany appeared to benefit from the EU in some ways, it is now facing negative consequences from the EU's centralized policies.

What could be the consequences if the AfD and BSW continue to rise in popularity?

If the AfD and BSW continue to gain traction, it could lead to a major political shift in Germany. The current political class could face significant instability, with the possibility of new coalitions, investigations into party leaders, and even attempts to ban certain parties. This could lead to a revolutionary moment in German politics.