PlanB Bitcoin Prediction October 2024
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses Bitcoin's unusual sideways market over the past eight months, remaining between $60k to $70k. He explores possible reasons behind this, dismissing long-term manipulation and pointing to factors such as early ETF-driven pumps and upcoming U.S. elections influencing market trends. Historical patterns around Bitcoin halvings and the RSI are compared, suggesting that patience is needed for the next significant price move. The analysis implies that Bitcoin's current stagnation is typical of long accumulation phases before sharp upward movements following halvings.
Takeaways
- 📉 Bitcoin has been in a sideways market for eight months, staying in a trading range between $60K and $70K, which is unusual for a bull market.
- 🔴 Despite the sideways movement, Bitcoin is still in a bull market, with a 'Red Dot' signal typically indicating upward trends during historical bull markets.
- 📊 The unusual price movement could be due to a pre-halving pump triggered by ETF speculation, rather than typical gradual accumulation phases.
- 📈 Bitcoin's current behavior mirrors a similar pre-halving pump observed in 2019-2020, followed by a flat period, but eventually resulting in a bull market.
- 🏦 Larger buyers and institutions might be waiting for clarity after the U.S. elections in November, which could trigger the next Bitcoin rally.
- 📅 The Moving Average chart shows that Bitcoin is still trading above the 200-week moving average, which is historically a good sign for potential future growth.
- 📉 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart reveals a close alignment with historical patterns, suggesting Bitcoin is near its historical average RSI value, around 65.
- 💡 The current flat market could be masking a rising trend, as a gradual increase would appear less noisy compared to the recent ETF-related volatility.
- 🔗 The Bitcoin realized price, tracking historical cost basis, shows an upward trend across various time frames, indicating long-term accumulation.
- ⏳ Historically, Bitcoin has had long flat periods followed by sudden, significant price jumps, often triggered by halving events, emphasizing the need for patience.
Q & A
What is the significance of Bitcoin's price being stuck in the $60k to $70k range for 8 months?
-The sideways movement in this price range is unusual in a bull market. Historically, Bitcoin prices rise during bull markets, but the flat period of 8 months suggests something different might be at play, such as early pre-halving effects or market dynamics beyond simple manipulation.
Why does the speaker dismiss manipulation as the cause of the flat market?
-The speaker believes that manipulation cannot explain such a long, 8-month period of flat market movement. Instead, they suggest other factors, like an early pre-halving pump, might be the reason for this anomaly.
What does the speaker suggest might have caused the early pre-halving pump?
-The speaker suggests that the excitement around ETFs and their impact on the market led to an early pre-halving pump, with Bitcoin's price jumping from $20k to $40k and then stabilizing between $60k and $70k. This behavior was unexpected and doesn't follow typical bull market patterns.
How does the moving average chart relate to Bitcoin's price behavior?
-The moving average chart smooths out price noise and shows that despite the flat market, Bitcoin's price has remained above the 200-week moving average for the past 8 months. This suggests that, despite the flat period, the overall trend remains upward.
What similarities does the speaker draw between the current flat period and past Bitcoin price cycles?
-The speaker compares the current flat period to similar phases in 2015 and 2019-2020, which also saw price stagnation following early pumps before eventual growth. These historical patterns offer insight into the current market dynamics.
What role do the upcoming US elections play in Bitcoin's current market behavior?
-The speaker mentions that large buyers may be waiting for the outcome of the US elections, which could cause uncertainty. A Democratic win, particularly a Biden-Harris victory, is perceived as negative for Bitcoin, which might be why some investors are holding off on making significant moves.
How does the RSI (Relative Strength Index) support the speaker’s analysis?
-The RSI, which tracks the strength of price movements, shows that Bitcoin’s current RSI is close to the historical average of 65. This suggests the current flat price movement may just be noise within a broader rising trend, supporting the idea that the market is still fundamentally strong.
What does the speaker mean by saying 'Bitcoin is the next stablecoin'?
-The speaker humorously notes that Bitcoin's stable price movement in the $60k range for 8 months gives the impression of it being like a stablecoin, which is usually characterized by price stability. This stability contrasts with Bitcoin's usual volatility.
What is the importance of the realized price metrics in understanding Bitcoin's market?
-The realized price, which reflects the average cost at which all Bitcoin was purchased, shows that both short-term and long-term buyers are holding at higher levels. This indicates underlying strength in the market, despite the flat price movement.
What is the significance of the 'four-year cycle' in Bitcoin’s price movements?
-The four-year cycle is linked to Bitcoin's halving events, where price jumps typically occur after long periods of stability. The speaker emphasizes that patience is key, as Bitcoin's price historically makes large moves after these long, flat periods.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin’s Unusual Flat Market
The video starts by discussing Bitcoin’s sideways bull market, where Bitcoin has stayed in the $60k-$70k range for 8 months, which is considered strange for a bull market. Historically, bull markets push prices higher, but this time it seems different. The presenter does not believe manipulation is responsible, pointing instead to the possibility of an early pre-halving pump driven by ETF speculation. Normally, the price increases gradually, but in this case, it shot up quickly and then flattened. This situation feels unusual and unsettling compared to previous cycles.
📊 Moving Averages and Halving Cycles
The presenter examines Bitcoin’s movement against the 200-week moving average, highlighting how the current eight-month flat period is above the moving average. A similar period occurred in 2019-2020, making the current phase comparable to previous cycles. The moving average continues to rise, which is seen as a positive sign. The speaker believes that many large investors may be waiting for the outcome of the U.S. elections before making big moves, as political uncertainty could affect the market, with the possibility of a Democratic victory seen as unfavorable for Bitcoin.
📉 Relative Strength Index and Market Noise
The speaker introduces the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and its relationship with Bitcoin’s price movements. The chart shows a black line representing the average RSI of 65, and the current RSI is at 63, which is close to historical averages. The presenter highlights how previous bull markets, especially in 2013 and 2020, experienced noisy and unpredictable movements around the RSI, but the moving average remained stable. This current flat period is described as front-running the next halving event, similar to how the market behaved in 2019.
🪙 Realized Prices and Bitcoin’s Stability
The discussion moves on to the realized price, which represents the average cost of Bitcoin over its history. There are three realized price metrics on the chart: the entire history (at $32,000), the two-year realized price (at $51,000), and the five-month realized price (at $63,000). The speaker jokingly refers to Bitcoin as the 'new stablecoin' due to the extended flat period, comparing this phase to similar ones in the past, like 2019-2020 and 2014-2016, which made people doubt the possibility of future bull markets.
⏳ Patience and the Four-Year Cycle
In the final part, the speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin often stays in long, flat trading ranges, where nothing seems to happen, and then experiences short, explosive growth after halving events. These cycles are a hallmark of Bitcoin’s price history, and patience is required to wait for the next big move. The 'stepwise' nature of Bitcoin’s price, where long periods of stability are followed by significant jumps, is seen as a fundamental feature, and the speaker believes the next pump will come when the time is right.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bull market
💡Sideways market
💡Pre-halving pump
💡Moving average
💡RSI (Relative Strength Index)
💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)
💡Halving
💡Realized price
💡Stock-to-flow model
💡US elections
Highlights
Bitcoin closed September at 63,000, marking eight months of trading in the 60k to 70k range, which is unusual for a bull market.
Despite the sideways movement, the market is still considered a bull market due to the 'Red Dot' indicator, typically signaling price increases.
The pre-halving pump, partly driven by ETF speculation, might explain the rapid price jump from 20k to 73k, followed by eight months of flat movement.
Historically, accumulation phases are steady or rising, making this sharp rise unusual and contributing to the current flat market.
The 200-week moving average is increasing, and Bitcoin remains above this key indicator, suggesting continued upward potential despite current stagnation.
Some large investors are waiting for the U.S. elections for clarity before making major moves, as the outcome could impact Bitcoin prices.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is close to its historical average of 65, and current levels around 63 suggest a stable market rather than an imminent bear trend.
In previous bull markets, the RSI tracked cleanly with the moving average, but now there is more noise and volatility around the moving average.
The Bitcoin realized price, representing the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders, is rising across different timeframes, with the five-month average at 63,000.
A comparison is made to the 2019-2020 market, where a pre-halving pump occurred, followed by a correction due to external events like the COVID pandemic.
Bitcoin’s sideways movement over the past eight months could be optical—disguising a rising trend beneath the market noise.
The presenter describes Bitcoin as a ‘stable coin’ during this flat period, comparing it to similar flat periods in previous cycles before halving events.
Previous flat periods in Bitcoin history (e.g., 2014-2016, 2019-2020) were often followed by significant price increases, reinforcing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin.
The stock-to-flow model's nonlinear, stepwise function is highlighted, predicting fundamental growth after halving events, despite long waiting periods.
The ‘Bitcoin, do something’ meme is referenced, symbolizing the frustration many feel during these long, flat periods, yet history shows that patience pays off in the long run.
Transcripts
welcome back to plan B on YouTube so
what's up with this weird sideways bull
market is it manipulation is it
something else let's discuss this first
chart and uh you know Bitcoin closed
September at 63,000 and it's the eighth
month in a row that it's in a 60k to 70k
trading range it's really weird uh and
it never happened before normally the
bull markets yes it is still in the bull
market because it's red Red Dot bull
market and normally bull market means
price go up historically when it's red
when it's bull market prices went up in
2011 2013 2017 and
202
2021 but not now now it's sideways and
well you know I I do not believe in in
manipulation yes it can be manipulation
but not for 8 months that's something
different at work I think so another
explanation could be that we had a too
early preh haling pump because of the
ETFs and the the halfing was somewhere
here around
April and we had a we even had a alltime
high a new alltime high before the
halfing uh which had now never happened
before but basically we pumped from the
bottom
um around 20K to 40K 60k
73k and and and that is something that's
unusual because normally the
accumulation phases are quite stable or
Rising but not that fast uh so yeah that
that could be it um a preh halfing too
early pump uh but surely and and surely
you know it it would have felt different
if we had an increase that that would go
gradually from this 20K to 63k instead
of this jump here this ETF jump and then
flat for eight months which which feels
weird but uh the same result with a
gradual increase would have felt a lot
different although the end outcome would
be exactly the
same so what can
we see in the moving average chart the
moving average chart is uh well it shows
the same thing it has this this eight
month flat period here note by the way
that the color is different in the
moving average chart it's months until
the next halfing not the the phase we're
in not the bull bare Market it's just a
timer and the halfing is at month zero
so when Blue switches to red so this is
a halfing in 2016 this is one in 2020
and this is the latest in uh
2024 and well as we can see there was a
flat period in 2015 as well uh quite
long more than half a year I think it's
also eight months here uh but that was a
bare Market of course uh at at around uh
250k um more comparable I think is this
that period here in 2019
2020 uh that's around 10,000 little
under 10,000 dollars and uh and also um
a a period with a halfing in there
so that that's very comparable I think
to we are where we are right now because
um we we back then we also had this preh
halfing too early pump and then Co that
that that really uh spoiled the party
but it was basically a one month uh
event in the end because the the money
printer went on the QE was started and
then that was the trigger for the for
the entire bull market of course Michael
sailor uh uh started buying Bitcoin here
and and later Elon
Musk
um went positive on on bitcoin but that
was that was sort of the trigger and
it's a bit of the
same period same
preing pump situation above the moving
average so this black line of course is
is the moving average and we use it to
smooth out the
noise um right now it's it's
40K and and Bitcoin for the entire eight
months flat period is above that that
200 we moving average same here in 2019
2020
so yeah um moving average is increasing
just like back then it's still
increasing so as long as it's increasing
it's okay in my
opinion um and Bitcoin will find its
trigger for the next pump and I have
heard that many large buyers are just
waiting for the US elections in November
that makes sense because why run the
risk if you can wait a couple of weeks
weeks and have total Clarity um and and
uncertainty and the risk obviously being
uh a democratic Biden Harris win which
is which is bad for Bitcoin so Wales
waiting for the US elections could very
well be the reason for this eight-month
sideways priv movement just one
explanation so we look at SS RSI the
relative strength index this chart looks
a little bit different uh because I
added this moving average 12 month
moving average in there and the
background has this uh black line in the
middle at
65 which is about the average RSI
through the history of Bitcoin and the
bare and B bull markets Dan around this
black line so right now
the uh RSI is 63 so very close to this
average of 65 this black line and what
we see is that um this moving average
again Smooths out all the noise and for
example here it was a very clean period
where the the actual RSI numbers
followed the moving average uh track the
moving average I should say quite well
but here in 200
13 this this bull market was quite noisy
and uh the the the moving average tracks
right through it but there is H there is
months way above this this this moving
average and months uh way below and the
same is true for example for 2019 and
2020 and we talked about this period uh
before at at the moving average uh sheet
and we see it's very very noisy there we
had it's pre haling uh pump too early
then a correction and then of course CO
as a kind of well Black Swan uh which
really put a dent even in the moving
average but the moving average kept
rising and rising and then here in the
bull market it's it's all on track again
and actually see the same thing right
now um back then it it felt like front
running in 2019 front running the
halfing that was all talk about about
the halfing and and and stock to flow of
course which was published here uh so
there was talk about front running we
have that same talk about front running
right now um with the ETFs where retail
had the opportunity to front run Wall
Street uh for the first time so we had
this too early before for the halfing uh
pump and then of course there was this
dump uh after the halfing because of
government selling Mount GA
selling uh but all in all moving average
was pretty pretty
stable um and Rising so in my opinion um
the flat bull market that we see in the
price can be just Optics a trend a trend
a rising Trend disguised by noise and
mixed signal because if this were a
gradual growth from all the way from
from 15 to the current
63,000 bitcoin price then the RSI would
be uh not this noisy and uh and we would
be not that confused about about this
this uh sideways bitcoin price
next chart and now it becomes really
interesting this is the Bitcoin realized
price so that's like the average cost
price of Bitcoin and there's three
realized prices in this chart the
realized price that looks at the whole
history price history is uh 32,000 at
the moment and Rising the 2-year
realized price that only looks at the
last two year and and the Bitcoins that
were bought in those two years the cost
price of those Bitcoins is at uh
51,000 um at the end of September and
rising and the Very shortterm five Monon
realiz price light blue light blue line
is at 63 and
Rising well it's it's sort of flat but
last month it it did rise a little bit
so um I tweeted about this
earlier and and I said uh maybe you
remember it Bitcoin is the next stable
coin is now a stable coin because of
this 8mon flat period And I also tweeted
60,000 is the new
10,000 why did I tweet that
because this
2019 2020 period that we talked about
before in the moving average chart and
the RSI
chart um it it felt exactly the same
like right now it felt like boring
Flatline uh there will never be a bu
Market again stock to flow failed uh
Bitcoin is dead whatever actually if you
go further back uh we had that same
boring uh period in 2014 to
2016 at a much lower level of course it
was uh about 400 500 at the time
and even uh before that in 2012 there
was a period where Bitcoin and and also
in the bare Market of course but where
the where that that flat period was uh
make making people think like there
would would never be a bull market again
and yeah this this is
basically my opinion about this flat
bull market at the moment I think
Bitcoin is most of the time in a boring
Flatline situation and uh in fact three
of the four years are boring and nothing
and just some very short periods just
after the
halfing um caused
those big jumps in price those big
fundamental and structural jumps in
price fundamental structural because
Bitcoin jump up and does not return of
course there is a crash after a big pump
every time um but it will never return
to that original level and uh yeah well
so in fact it's it's it's just a matter
of some patience and there's even it's
even so common that uh that there is a
um a meeme of this but we we'll get to
that later but this stepwise function of
a long wait and then a short pump after
the haling long waight haling pump long
waight we just had this
haling that of course is the very basis
the core of the stock to flow model
nonlinear
stepwise and after the halfing
fundamental uh growth that yeah that
that is the signature of the the
fouryear cycle and the meme that comes
with that is come on bitcoin do
something and that's a very old meme by
the way so it's still valued and and
true today and uh so in my opinion the
trading range is quite normal the
training range that we're in right now
and patience is needed so in my opinion
the pump will come at uh well the time
that Bitcoin thinks it's right thank you
very much and see you next time
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