Digital Transformation: Interview with David Edgerton, King’s College London
Summary
TLDRThe speaker challenges the prevailing notion that digital technology is the sole driver of change in the modern world, arguing that this perspective is narrow and overlooks other significant developments. They critique the historical misrepresentation of technology's role, emphasizing the need for a more balanced and critical approach to understanding technological impact. The speaker advocates for a broader view that considers a variety of technologies and societal changes, rather than focusing solely on digital advancements.
Takeaways
- 🌐 The speaker emphasizes that technology today is often equated with digital, but there are many other developments happening globally that are not digital.
- 📚 The book 'The Shock of the Old' challenges the common narrative that technology's role in the 20th century is well understood, arguing for a more nuanced view.
- 🕰️ There is a bias in historical accounts of technology, focusing too much on early inventions rather than what was widely used, leading to a skewed perspective on technological impact.
- 🚀 The speaker points out that the biggest R&D spenders in the late 20th century were not tech companies but traditional industries like automotive, indicating a different technological landscape than commonly portrayed.
- 🤔 Quantifying the importance of technology is difficult, and we often lack critical analysis, instead accepting broad claims about digital transformation without scrutiny.
- 💡 The speaker suggests rethinking how we assess technology's role by comparing it to alternatives, not just assuming its indispensability.
- 📱 The ubiquity of digital technology doesn't necessarily mean it's the most significant; other technologies and societal changes could have similar or greater impacts.
- 🏭 The speaker critiques the concept of the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution' as overhyped, suggesting that it's not solely about digital but could encompass a range of industrial changes.
- 🚀 Tech entrepreneurs' big plans, like going to Mars, are often based on old technologies and ideas, not necessarily indicative of future trends or significant innovations.
- 🛠️ The speaker advocates for a more critical and less boosterish approach to discussing technology, encouraging skepticism towards hype and a deeper analysis of technological impacts.
Q & A
What does the author argue in 'The Shock of the Old'?
-The author argues that our understanding of technology's role in the 20th century is flawed, as it often focuses on the early history of specific inventions rather than what was actually used by people, leading to a misrepresentation of the material world's history.
Why does the author believe that our accounts of the material world are biased?
-The author believes our accounts are biased because they are usually focused on the wrong time period, too early, and often overlook the most important technologies of a particular era.
What is the author's view on the quantification of technology's importance?
-The author suggests that we should begin to quantify the importance of technology, but acknowledges that it is more difficult than it seems, as we often take claims about technology's transformative power at face value without proper analysis.
How does the author propose we should evaluate the significance of computers?
-The author proposes evaluating the significance of computers by comparing our society's performance with an alternative to computers, rather than assuming their indispensability.
What is the author's stance on the role of digital technology in societal change?
-The author contends that while digital technology is pervasive, it is just one element among many driving societal change and argues against reducing all change to the digital.
Why does the author criticize the concept of the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution'?
-The author criticizes the concept as it is often mistakenly attributed solely to digital advancements, while it could encompass a wide range of industrial changes, and the idea itself is not original, dating back to the 1940s.
What does the author suggest about the way we select and reject new technologies?
-The author suggests that we should feel free to reject new technologies, as not every new invention is necessary or appropriate for our needs, and that rejection is a natural part of technological advancement.
How does the author view the predictions about the future impact of technology?
-The author views many predictions about the future impact of technology as overly simplistic and often wrong, due to a lack of serious thought and analysis behind them.
What does the author think about the narrative that some technologies like driverless cars are inevitable?
-The author believes that such narratives are implausible as they do not consider alternative solutions and are driven by certain interests rather than a comprehensive view of transportation needs.
Why does the author find it ironic that tech entrepreneurs promote old technologies as new?
-The author finds it ironic because these entrepreneurs are seen as future-oriented, yet they are promoting technologies that have historical precedents, indicating a lack of originality in their vision.
What does the author suggest is the problem with the way we discuss the future of technology?
-The author suggests that the problem lies in the use of vague and slippery terms that lead to moralizing and simplistic discussions, rather than empirical analysis of what is actually happening or likely to happen.
Outlines
📚 The Misrepresentation of Technology in History
The speaker begins by challenging the common assumption that all change in the modern world is digital. They argue that technology's role in history is often misunderstood, with a tendency to focus on early inventions rather than what was actually used. The speaker critiques the bias in historical accounts of technology, suggesting that we often focus on the wrong time periods and neglect the most significant technologies of an era. They also question the conventional understanding of invention, using the example of motor car companies being the biggest R&D spenders in the late 20th century, contrary to popular belief. The speaker emphasizes the need to quantify the importance of technology and to compare it with alternatives to understand its true impact.
🌐 The Overemphasis on the Digital in Modern Change
The speaker critiques the notion that the digital is the sole driver of change in the modern world, pointing out that many other factors contribute to industrial and societal transformations. They discuss the concept of the 'fourth Industrial Revolution' and suggest that it is not as original as it is portrayed, as it could encompass a wide range of changes beyond the digital. The speaker argues against the constant promotion of new machines as world transformers, a narrative that has been repeated for over a century. They advocate for a more critical and nuanced view of technology, one that is not swayed by the hype of tech promoters or the pessimism of critics, and instead encourages thoughtful consideration of technology's role in society.
🤔 The Need for Critical Analysis of Technological Trends
The speaker discusses the difficulty in finding solid, critical views on current tech trends, as both promoters and critics often fall into the trap of hype or inverted hype. They argue that the story of technology should not be moralized but analyzed and understood. The speaker questions the significance of digital technologies, such as AI and cloud computing, and points out that similar transformative claims have been made about past technologies like airplanes and television. They also challenge the idea of a dematerialized world, highlighting the continued importance of physical materials and industrial processes. The speaker suggests that we are not in a new era but rather experiencing a continuation of industrialization, and that the so-called fourth industrial revolution is not a novel concept.
🚀 The Paradox of Tech Entrepreneurs' Visions
The speaker finds it ironic that many tech entrepreneurs promote old technologies as new, such as electric cars and rockets, which have historical precedents. They suggest that these entrepreneurs are influenced by a futuristic mindset that is actually rooted in past visions of the future, rather than innovative thinking. The speaker criticizes the naivety of looking to science fiction and futurists for predictions about the future and argues for a more empirical approach to understanding current inventions and their potential impact. They also discuss the limitations in our understanding of what is being invented globally, as much research is conducted in secrecy or confidentiality, and the public is often presented with a selective view of technological advancements.
🔍 The Importance of Empirical Thinking in Future Innovation
In the final paragraph, the speaker emphasizes the need to move away from vague and slippery terms like 'digital', 'technology', 'science', and 'innovation', which can cloud our understanding of what is truly happening in the world of technology. They advocate for a more empirical approach to thinking about the future, focusing on concrete realities rather than broad and ambiguous concepts. The speaker points out the paradox that innovation policy, which should be a bastion of innovation, is often one of the least innovative areas of policy. They suggest that we should be clear about whether we are discussing the latest gadgets or the material foundations of our societies, as these are fundamentally different. The speaker concludes by encouraging a more mature and critical conversation about technology and its role in shaping our world.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Digital
💡Technology
💡Invention
💡Material World
💡Quantify
💡Transformation
💡Industrial Revolution
💡Luddite
💡Propaganda
💡Innovation
💡Dematerialized World
Highlights
The digital is often mistakenly attributed as the sole driver of change in the modern world, overlooking other significant developments.
The history of technology in the 20th century is misrepresented, focusing too much on early inventions rather than what was actually used.
The importance of technology is often overestimated without proper quantification of its impact on society.
The concept of invention is flawed; for instance, car companies were the biggest R&D spenders, not tech giants like Microsoft or Google.
Assessing the importance of technology should compare societal performance with and without that technology.
The assumption that digital technologies are inherently transformative is a bias that needs to be questioned.
The fourth Industrial Revolution is not a new concept and could apply to various industrial changes, not just digital.
The digital is just one element among many driving change, and its significance is often overstated.
The narrative that new machines will transform the world is a recurring theme that lacks originality.
Critics of technology are often mislabeled as Luddites, but they may simply be advocating for a different form of society.
The rejection of new technologies is a necessary part of adopting the most beneficial ones for society.
Consumers have the freedom to choose technologies that best suit their needs, including older versions or alternatives.
Future projections about technology's impact are often wrong due to a lack of serious analysis.
The term 'digital' has become the master concept for studying our world, overshadowing a broader understanding of technology.
The claims about digital's impact are not new and have a long history of being propagandistic with little basis in analysis.
The idea of a dematerialized world is fanciful, as the material world is more active than ever, contradicting digital utopianism.
The concept of inevitable technological progress, like driverless cars, is not as plausible as it seems and ignores alternative solutions.
Tech entrepreneurs' big plans, such as tunneling under cities or going to Mars, often reflect old technologies and ideas.
The future should not be dictated by the propaganda of tech gurus but should be open to a variety of scenarios and critical thinking.
Innovation policy is paradoxically one of the least innovative areas, despite its need for originality to succeed.
The language used to discuss the future is slippery and unhelpful; we should focus on empirical evidence of what is happening.
Transcripts
Whenever we talk about changes in the in the modern world we are very quick to
talk about the digital. In fact the word 'technology' today means 'digital'.
A digital gizmo, that's all it means. But of course we have lots of
developments going on in the world today. In fact, there is hardly anything that's
not changing. It's absurd to ascribe every change in the world today tp the digital.
About 10 years ago I published a book called "The Shock of the Old"
which is a global history of 20th century technology, which argued
essentially that we don't really have a good account of the place of technology
in the history of the 20th century either in rich countries or in poor
countries. In fact, we systematically misrepresent the history of the material
world in our accounts of the past, present and future of human society.
I've been teaching scientists and engineers the history of science and
technology for many years, and I was constantly looking for a way
to think about the place of technology in history.
I increasingly found that I was dissatisfied with what has been said.
Too much work is focused on the early history of some very particular
inventions rather than looking at what human beings actually used. So I argued
that our accounts of the material world were biased in time. They were usually
focused on the wrong time, far too early a period and were usually
biased away from the most important technologies or things or structures or
machines of a particular historical era. On top of that, we didn't have a
proper account of invention. We assume that we have an account of invention
that tells us about what was invented in any particular year but I discovered
that we don't. For example it comes as a surprise to know that in the late
20th century, the biggest R&D spenders in the world were motor car companies
like the Ford Motor Company, not the Microsofts and Googles of this world.
How can one quantify the importance of a particular technology?
One of the great problems with our understanding of the world of
technology is the fact that we don't quantify. We just take on trust
assertions that this or that technology is transforming our world. We should in
fact begin to quantify but it's actually much more difficult than you might think.
Take the question 'How important is the computer?' One answer would be 'What
would happen if all the computers stopped suddenly?' The answer then
would be 'Very important, because our world would come to a crashing halt.'
But that's not the right way of formulating the question. The question needs to be
formulated as follows: 'If instead of computers we had some alternative, what
is the difference in the performance of our society with that alternative and
with the computer?' That's to say we could do lots of things without
computers that we today do with computers. We could type a letter with
a typewriter, not a word processor. We could take a photograph with a wet
photography and indeed, we could do many things, from broadcasting
to fighting wars to all sorts of magical entertainment without the digital.
That has to be our comparison. But it's very difficult
because young people will not be aware of predecessors to the digital.
I remember a very funny occasion when on
the television program, in the early days of the Internet, the presenter of the program was
trying to communicate with an Internet guru in San Francisco from London.
They discovered that it was difficult to make this
video connection to this guru and they made mild fun of this poor chap
because the future hadn't quite arrived. But the real joke
was that actually, they could have picked up the phone to San Francisco and
spoken to him perfectly well.
We need to think not just about the one thing which everyone is talking about but
actually ask 'Why is the world changing as it is?' We should not assume that we
know the explanation, i.e., the digital. We should ask 'Why is it that things are
happening as they as they are?' Once we ask that question it becomes
very obvious that the digital is just one element of many.
It's very striking, the extent to which all change today is reduced to the digital.
People talk about the fourth Industrial Revolution actually a concept from the
1940s that people pretend is original. They think the fourth industrial revolution
is about the digital. Well, it could be about whatever is happening in
industry, so it could be about changes in chemical processes, it could be
changes in work organization, it could be about changes in any number of things, but
we essentially make ourselves ignorant of what is really going on by just
saying digital, digital, digital, digital. It might be the case the digital is
indeed the most important, but that has not as far as I'm concerned been established.
All I know is that digital is what you hear all the time. I don't see
much evidence that it's specifically the digital that accounts for 50 or 80
percent of the change.
The promoters of technology for many decades, over 100 years
actually, have argued that we absolutely need this one, two or three new machines
and that they will transform our world. That is a very familiar story.
In fact, there is hardly anything original about it.
All that changes is the particular machine. So once the radio would bring the world
together, later it was television and now it's the Internet.
Wars will be abolished by new explosives, by airplanes, and by atomic bombs.
It's a very familiar kind of story that's told. It's extraordinary really that people still
still get away with giving the impression that this is an original story.
Now one difficulty of being critical of these stories is that people
assume that that one is against change. But actually, I am all in favor of change.
I want more change, and I think one way that we will get more change is if we stop
thinking about the material constitution of the past, present, and the future in
this terribly passe way. We really need to find a refreshed, more interesting and
more grown-up way of thinking about our world and how we might change it
or how it might be changed by others.
People who are opposed to a particular argument about a new technology are
often called Luddites or conservative backward-looking people that want to
keep the world as it is. Actually that's not right. The original Luddites
were complaining not about machines but about a new form of society
that was depriving them of work. Similarly today, we should feel
free to reject the blandishments of the promoters of new technologies.
One thing that's very important to remember in this context is that there
are lots and lots of new technologies to choose from. In fact, we have to reject
most new technologies, because we're not going to live in a world with ten
different types of telephone or fourteen different kinds of transport machine.
We need a reduced number, and that implies rejection. Indeed rejection of
novelty has been central to our adoption of appropriate or sometimes
inappropriate machines in the 20th century. Rejecting machines is something
that scientists and engineers and investors do all the time and have to do.
We as consumers do the same, and we should feel free to do that.
Of course the advertisers of a particular product have to insist that
we take their product, but we don't have to. We can say, 'no thank you, I prefer this
other one,' or 'I prefer for the moment to buy nothing at all,' or indeed
'I preferred the old version. I'll have 1990's Nokia, thank you very much, not an iPhone 7.'
We're perfectly free to do that. There's no shame in it it.
It doesn't imply backwardness or a desire to make us all poorer.
Not anything like that. We should be free to choose.
The assessment of the impact of significance of a particular techniques
is extremely difficult, and of course, most projections into the future of what
the impact will be are wrong and often risibly wrong. Often they're
wrong because no serious thought has gone into the impacts.
We have propagandistic positive stories and equally propagandistic negative stories.
We really do need to start thinking in a more grown-up way about how we
might change our world and what the place of technology will be in that world.
But alas we don't live in that world. We live in a world of
tech boosterism and tech negativity. We moralize like teenagers
about new technology. Really, we ought to up our
game and upping our game means being very critical, I think, of most of
what's written and said about this magical thing 'technology'.
Where would one go to get solid critical views of today's tech trends?
It's rather difficult because there are many people that are critical of
technology but they often really invert the hype. 'So technology X is going to
have positive effects,' say the promoters. 'No, it's going to have negative effects,'
say the critics. I think usually the promoters and the critics are both wrong.
The story of tech is a story that's not told.
In any case, it's not a story we should moralize about. It's a story that we need
to analyze, need to understand, need to investigate as we don't have much sense
really of what's going on. The critics and the promoters are
made for each other, so we mustn't confuse criticism of the
hype with criticism of the technological world.
What's your view on some of these so-called transformative digital
technologies, like AI, Big Data, cloud computing, etc?
I find it very interesting that the term 'digital' is now the master concept for
studying our world. Technology in a broader sense was the
master concept for studying our world until recently.
I just find it very difficult to think about this. I think it's self-evidently a bit strange
that people attribute so much importance, so much change, to this
particular narrow set of techniques. Now I'm the first to recognize that the
digital is everywhere, but I have more difficulty in seeing just how
significant it might be. I'm also very familiar as any historian of
technology has to be with very similar stories told in the past about airplanes
about atomic power, about rockets, about radio, about television... So the claims
aren't in themselves novel. They have a long pedigree, and I think it's true
to say that most of the claims made in the past were essentially propagandistic
claims with little basis in their analysis and these claims that are made
today reek of exactly the same problem. I'm not saying that
one couldn't have a serious assessment of the digital and its impact and what
it might be in in future, but that's not what one gets.
One gets all sorts of extraordinarily crude stories about knowledge societies
the de-materialized world, the Fourth Industrial Revolution
and they clearly cannot be right.
We do not live in a dematerialized world. There is more material whizzing around the world today than ever before.
We haven't reached peak coal, we haven't reached peak concrete, we haven't reached
peak oil, we haven't reached peak motorcar or peak electricity.
The idea that we have left all these things behind and are now just
a bunch of near weightless electrons seems to me utterly fanciful.
Yet, that is the kind of story that is told. Stories of knowledge societies
stories of the post-industrial age. Actually, we live in the most
industrial age ever, and never before in human history has a single product
let us say, the iPhone, been made in such numbers.
Never before in world history have we had factories as large the factories
that put together iPhones. So my response is that in many ways we've been here before.
In many ways what we see is the playing out of a very long process
of industrialization of the world rather than a radical transition
between one kind of world and the next. But as I say, it's been a feature of
that modern industrial world that some gurus, boosters, have claimed again and again
that the latest machine is going to transform the world, it's already
transforming the world, indeed. So that is why we already had four
industrial revolutions by 1940. It's a shame the promoters of the fourth industrial revolution today
don't know that that they've been anticipated by many
decades in their rather silly notion.
I hear a lot that some of these technologies are inevitable
like for example driverless cars. What's your view on that?
Well, it could happen, but you only have to think about the particular arguments
that people typically make to see that they are implausible.
One reason they're implausible is that they don't admit of any alternatives.
For example, people talk about driverless cars.
There are alternative ways of organizing transport in the city.
For example we could get rid of private cars tomorrow and insist that everybody
travels by bus. This would free up the roads for a lot more buses. We could get anywhere, not with
driverless buses but with buses with drivers but we would not have to drive
around in our own vehicles. But that's not on the agenda.
The story is being driven by the Googles of this world not by public transit auhorities.
The point is we do need to think not just about the digital but
about what we need for example in the area of of transport. There are many
more ways of organizing the future of urban transportation than driverless cars.
Is this optimism dangerous?
Well, I wouldn't call it optimism, I would call it propaganda.
I think we should be optimistic
and I'm optimistic that we could achieve a consensus that we need a more
grown-up way of thinking about our options for the future, but that does
mean rejecting the propaganda of these gurus. There are many ways
of thinking about the future. There many possible futures to think about.
I think the great tragedy is that we we have let ourselves be conned into thinking the
future has to be of the sort that the propagandists for particular techniques
tell us it is. We either react by applauding that or by condemning that.
We shouldn't do that. We should remember there are other scenarios.
What's your view on some of these bold plans of some tech entrepreneurs, like
tunneling under cities or going to Mars.
I think it's fascinating actually
that's so many of the Internet entrepreneurs have as sidelines the
promotion of very old technologies. Elon Musk - electric cars.
Electric cars to me say 1900. I think Sergey Brin is building an airship.
Now airships are for me 1920s, 1930s. And then a whole bunch of people are
building gigantic airplanes bigger than this Spruce Goose of the 1940s
and rockets! What could be more 1950s or 1960s and then space rockets.
And of course, going to Mars... Well, that is such an old-fashioned idea.
I mean, it's a staple of science fiction. They're going into the 19th century.
Perfectly illustrates the point that the supposedly
future-oriented people are actually stuck in the past.
The trouble is, they don't know it.
Why do you think some tech entrepreneurs have these big plan to change the world?
Well, I think that they are brought up in a frame of mind
that sees the future in this way. I mean you only have to read
about the future to know that this is what the future is going to be.
We have lived with a literature telling us what the future is going to be for a very
very long time. If you read it, this is what you come up with.
But it's the wrong place to look for the future. We should look at the actual history
of the 19th and 20th century and that would tell us
very different things from sci-fi, from the projections of the futurists.
But it really is a very naive way of looking at
the world and actually a very naive way of looking at what's being invented.
We don't actually know what is in fact being invented across the world today.
It's clearly not the case that a significant proportion of our resources
are going to finding new ways to get to to Mars. It is a highly publicized activity
but not significant in the in the bigger run of things.
Which do you think are the really significant inventions of our time?
I don't know, and I don't think anybody does.
Most innovations or most research of course is being done if not in secret
at least in confidence, and its results aren't shared with wider public.
In that sense we can't have a global view of what is being invented now and
what will be significant. All we get is very selected, propagandistic images.
I don't know what the future that is being made
in the laboratories of governments and corporations is. Interestingly, when I
go to conferences to hear about the future, I am never told that either.
I'm just told about some very particular stories, usually ones I've been hearing for
20, 30, 40 years. But if we are serious about knowing about future we
have that's what we have to know about. What actually is being planned
and not just in Silicon Valley, but around the world.
One problem is is that research agencies around the world feel forced to research in
areas everybody else is researching in. Research managers never lost their job
by doing what was being done in the United States, France, and Germany
but there's a severe risk they would lose their job if they did something that was
actually original and which indeed might have a greater chance of success.
It's a great paradox that innovation policy is one of the least innovative
areas of policy in the world but one that ought to be innovative has to be innovative, indeed
if it's going to succeed. Not everybody can be top dog
in innovation in any particular area. It is a winner-takes-all
or winner-takes-a-lot game, so you want to make sure that you're in a game that
you have a chance of winning.
One way to sum up the problem is that we use very slippery words
when we're thinking about the future. We use words like 'digital', words like 'technology'
words like 'science', words like 'innovation', that could mean many
different things. I think we should stop using all of these words and think much
more empirically about what's actually going on or what's likely to be going on.
What is technology? For example at one moment it is nothing but the latest
digital gizmo. At another it is the material basis of our societies.
We can't have those two concepts working at the same time. We need to be clear
whether we're talking about one kind of latest gizmo, or we're talking
about the material constitution of our world. They're clearly very different things.
Let's get rid of these these brain-macerating terms
these terms that force us it seems to moralize in a childish way and
think seriously about what we're trying to invent, who's trying to invent it
for what reason, how we'd like to change our world. And then we could have an
interesting chat and people like me would have to spend
their time appearing to be Luddites.
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